12-30-09
3:41a GMT – Is it 2010 yet? In these thin markets and with most traders taking the week off (it’s been quiet in here!) the price staggered back and forth, establishing both a new high and new low on the day. I entered no trade yesterday as both support and resistance were broken with no good signals to enter in either direction.
Daily Outlook: The most interesting thing to happen yesterday was the bearish shooting star that appeared on the daily chart, just piercing the 23.6% retracement resistance of the december high-low fibonacci (daily chart shown below with candlestick circled). That daily signal is enough for me to be bearish on the day and to look for rallies to sell into.
Daily Chart with Shooting Star Circled
Trading Idea: I’ll give the pair some room to breath in these thin and volatile markets and look for a rally to the 61.8% retracement to 1.4400. Short targets preferred at 1.4370, 1.4340, 1.4305 and 1.4275.
1-hour Chart
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December 30, 2009 at 05:00
Hey Mark, I am going to be starting a journal here at Piphut.com on the first. Thank you for your advise I will take you up on it. I have laid out some of my guidelines and some views on my trading. I am hoping to learn something and share what I see in the charts. Feel free to give me criticism good or bad. I will give screen shots as well. I can’t wait to see how it all works out.
December 30, 2009 at 05:07
Sounds great Matt. Two suggestions: always put in PLANNED stop losses/targets and remember that the journal is primarily for you (though others will be able to see it). If you revisit your journal at the end of the month and examine why each trade succeeded/failed and how you can make your approach more consistent you will learn a lot.
At the end of the day only you can improve yourself and it sounds like you are taking the right steps here :)
December 30, 2009 at 05:11
Cool, I will ;)
December 30, 2009 at 07:55
Morning Mark
In order to keep one’s journals under the same heading must I use “post reply”?
December 30, 2009 at 07:49
Hi Matt I was a bit hesitant of posting my journals on the forum simply because I make boo boos (as I believe others also do from time to time) and has a tendency of chasing. I’ve commited myself to post my journals as it will most definitely keep me in check. My aim is to minimise the losing trades to an absolute minimum.
December 30, 2009 at 13:01
Good morning Hendrik, I think it will have positive implications for you. It will be neat to look back and see what you were thinking on a specific trade or day and how it turned out in your favor or against you. As far as boo boos, keep in mind the best of the best make boo boos. How do you think they learned how to fix them in the first place, they first had to make the mistakes in order to adjust themselves. I think that you have to have failure time to time to have success. :) I am with you all the way.
December 30, 2009 at 05:14
hi mark what do you think eu will going raising again ?
thank you and happy new year
December 30, 2009 at 05:21
EURUSD could rise.. markets are thing and this is forex – anything can happen! Did you read my analysis above?
December 30, 2009 at 05:51
Hi Mark, thanks for all your great commentaries on the market! I had recently been a follower of your signals and it is actually improving my own trading as well.
Just to drop my view on the market now. There are 2 hammers formed at the bottom of the downtrend, 1.43. I am actually longing it at 1.432 and hope to get 50pips. Like what you analyzed….it may go up to 1.44 before falling lower again :)
December 30, 2009 at 07:34
Hi Mark,
I’ve been sitting it out these past 2 weeks looking in now and then. Hope to be getting back into the swing after the New Year and setting up a sound journaling system like Matt.
Thanks again for this great site!!!
December 30, 2009 at 08:42
Hi friends, just a thought, i was bullish usd/jpy yesterday, and it broke the option barrier at 92.00! I realised a while ago, that at some points while trading usd/jpy, there is an invesrse relationship with eur/usd!! So i when short eur/usd at 1.4420, the market went against me to 1.4458 high then bottomed out to lows of around 1.43!
does anyone have any pointers on the relationship between usd/jpy and eur/usd!! what do u think about this relationship?
im more of a technical trader using candlesticks and ichimocu cloud, but i like to use fundementals to give me a more confirmation on trade direction!
December 30, 2009 at 12:39
Not always! and sometime when EUR/USD falls 100 pip doesn’t mean that USD/JPY will rise 100 pips.
December 30, 2009 at 12:54
Morning mark,
its a brand new day.Just want you to guide on how to save a chart/picture of past or present trade.Just love to post some of my position on this discussion board also for pros review and advise.
December 30, 2009 at 14:22
Hey Hakeem, Hope you are having a good day. I this this link will help you with what you are looking for, it goes over how to post charts and what program you can use. http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7
December 30, 2009 at 13:03
Good morning all, I hope we are all having a good day.
December 30, 2009 at 14:45
i agree with u wolf, that if eur/usd moves by 100 pips, doesnt necessarily mean that usd/jpy, will move 100 pips in the opposite direction!! all im saying is that there is an inverse relationship, and that usd/jpy is also effected by movements in S&P 500!!
just something to be aware of and to look at!!!
December 30, 2009 at 14:52
Thanks Mark for all the useful information on your website! Has been a great help since using it over a year ago!
Just wanted to know if you have ever used bell-curve trading techniques in lieu with your own trading strategies?
Wish you a happy new year, and thanks for your daily signal updates!!
cheers
December 30, 2009 at 15:35
Mark, will all comments be tweeted from now on? I do not mind your major updates to come and look as needed but to have every comment tweeted is a a bit much. Please let me know and if so then I will just drop the tweets and come look when I get your emails on the updates only. Nothing against anyone here at all but every comment is annoying.
December 30, 2009 at 15:45
Hi Tom, it’s a test I was running this week on a suggestion from another PipHutter. Sorry its bugging you. The plan was to run it for this week and re-evaluate the pros/cons. I’ll definitely take your feedback under consideration as well.
December 30, 2009 at 15:48
Thanks Mark, I use tweetdeck and do not mind the major update signals from you but for every comment its just easier to hit F5 when I come back to the computer to see whats happened when I was gone. My 2 pips worth here
December 30, 2009 at 16:11
You know Tom, I’m thinking through this and I might be able to have my cake and eat it too. I think I will create a separate twitter account just for the comments so the original (twitter.com/piphut) will be for major updates (like it used to be) and the second account will display all the comments. So users could choose to follow just one or both if they wanted.
Would that work for you?
December 30, 2009 at 16:24
That works yes. a choice is always a good thing
December 30, 2009 at 19:01
Tom, you can rest easy now and keep using tweetdeck – twitter.com/piphut is back to only major announcements / daily signal.
I’ve switched the comments broadcast to the newly created:
twitter.com/piphutcomments
I’ll make an announcement tomorrow but FYI.
December 30, 2009 at 19:23
Thanks Mark, see you next year and next week. no liquidity = no trade
December 30, 2009 at 17:00
On the other hand Mark, I’ve just installed an RSS reader and am getting great benefit from it. However, unlike the other Piphutter, I’d very much like to see every comment added to the reader, rather than just the one you send first thing. Do you think this would be possible at all ?
Thanks and happy new year to you
Paul
December 30, 2009 at 17:02
Hi Paul, this is already possible. Just add the comments feed at. FYI it will show the last 10 comments at a time:
http://piphut.com/comments/feed/
December 30, 2009 at 17:04
Great, I was using piphut.com/feed
December 30, 2009 at 17:06
Great, I was using piphut.com/feed
Also, when we spoke before you said you would attempt to post when you made/exited your trades ? Any chance you could resurrect this for 2010 ? Helps with decisions for the less able !
December 30, 2009 at 17:07
You’ll want to follow both feeds as one just updates with the signals and the other has all the comments.
December 30, 2009 at 17:08
Got you. Thanks
December 30, 2009 at 17:09
I continue to kick around the positives and negatives of that. It goes against the reason I started PipHut, to help people trade on their own, but I have a happy medium that I’m hoping to have ready for 2010.
December 30, 2009 at 17:10
Cool, catch up soon
December 30, 2009 at 15:48
So far the pros are: more people are finding us on Twitter. The past couple of days the twitter followers/day has increased 5 fold. Cons: just what you mentioned. Not everyone wants to see every comment as it overloads their twitter.
I’m leaning towards stopping it too, as most of the new followers are forex brokers, etc. and in the future when PipHut has more major updates (more signals on other pairs) I don’t want those to get lost in the clutter.
If anyone else that uses twitter wants to weigh in please do.
December 30, 2009 at 16:52
As for me clutter would not be a good thing. Not to sound like a jerk but I like the community we have now, I’m afraid that if Piphut gets to much clutter it will not feel like the tight knit community it is now. That is just the selfish side of me. On the other hand I was fortunate to find piphunt and have been able to grow I think as a stronger better trader, and it would not be fair to be selfish with this gold mine so to speak. I wish there was a way to keep the ” bad apples form spoiling the whole bunch ” ie, trash talkers and people that just don’t care. If I am looking at this wrong people correct me, like I said I don’t want to be selfish and seem like a jerk ( which is sometime a thin line )
December 30, 2009 at 16:57
I wish there was a way to keep OUT the ” bad apples form spoiling the whole bunch ” ie, trash talkers and people that just don’t care. (I had to fix that sentence) typing is not my best subject.
December 30, 2009 at 17:11
Well we will always run the risk of ‘bad apples’. If I keep putting quality forex signals/learning material up PipHut will grow from word of mouth alone. As you know though I’m pretty involved in the discussions and I do a pretty good job of moderating the bad apples.
December 30, 2009 at 17:12
you are right, this is why I do not care for every comment, I have F5
December 30, 2009 at 17:04
two account would be good! i like to see in twitter when new com. has added.
thanx mark
December 30, 2009 at 17:14
I think I will add a thread in the forum next year on daily EW counts for the majors.
December 30, 2009 at 17:14
by daily I mean from the daily charts :)
December 30, 2009 at 17:21
hope we are all enjoying the movie ( the bulls vs the bears) what a fight!!
December 30, 2009 at 17:41
Is AUTOCHARTIST familiar to anyone? Trying it for today and is looking GOOOOOD. (not alone ofcourse)
December 30, 2009 at 18:01
Hey Tommy, I have heard of it but I have never looked or found anything positive or negative about it. What is your thoughts on it and has it helped you in your trading.
December 30, 2009 at 17:50
Hi Tom,I tried installing mine but it’s not coming up
December 30, 2009 at 17:59
Is anyone watching the Cable? looks like it is close to a good resistance
December 30, 2009 at 19:22
I will see you guys next year, trading in this market with no liquidity is not a smart move right before the new year. There are 48 good trading weeks in a year and this is not one of them. good luck
December 30, 2009 at 19:27
See you next week Tom. I agree about the liquidity. I think it was yesterday that I mentioned I haven’t entered a trade since early last week due to the no signal being powerful enough to trade on in these thin and dangerous markets.
There will always be another trade as long as you have equity left!
See you next year.