12-22-09
4:24a GMT – Candlestick alerts gave us a solid entry yesterday on a triple-bearish candlestick signal on the 30m – bearish doji at 12:30, shooting star at 13:00 and hanging man at 13:30. It was below our resistance level but the triple signal was too tempting for many of you. I would have entered short as well – despite the thin markets – on the second signal except for the fact that the price didn’t get high enough to alert me :).
In general markets continue to thin and traders keep dropping off to take time off for the holidays. I know many of you have already wished me a happy holidays and a “see you next year!” FYI to all other traders still present I will continue publishing signals through the holidays except for Christmas Eve (24th), Christmas Day (25th), New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
Daily Outlook: Bearish action continued yesterday though we did see a second bounce off support at 1.4260. In the short-term I am bearish below 1.4420, but we have a confluence of resistance around the 1.4350 area that I will be watching closely for shorting opportunities. We have the sinking trend line from 12/11-12/16 highs (top blue trend). Second we have the shorter-term resistance connecting the 12/18-12/21 highs. Third we have the 38.2% retracement from the 12/16-12/18 at 1.4390. That leaves a zone of between 1.4355-1.4385 that I will be looking for good shorting signals.
Trading Idea: Looking for shorting opportunities in 1.4355-1.4385 resistance zone. From 1.4385 short targets are 1.4350, 1.4320, 1.4290. If 1.4390 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4420 and 1.4460. Also if price continues to drop without rising first a break of 1.4250 would open the way for a quick challenge of 1.4210.
Reminder that markets are thin near the holidays: use smart money management and I recommend a more conservative trading style! There is also a news event at 13:30 that could make markets move more than it usually would. Caution advised!
(click to enlarge)
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Hi Mark,
Thank you for the signals and reminding ‘thin market’ conditions. Your signal service is very good, truelly appreciate it.
In the mean time, do have a wonderful Christmas and a Happy New Year to and your dear Family.
All the Best.
gud day mark
tks for the tips, i will be around to keep u company and try to make a few pips.
similar to u, yes i missed a lot yesterday since i closed early with zero positions.
whats the target if a clean break of 142 50-60 (double bottom) region??
tks
haniff
I’m initially targeting 1.4210 and 1.4180.
could you tell how much are you certain if it gonna break the resisance or if not.
thank you very much
andy
Andy, nobody is ever certain of anything in the forex markets. I trade in the direction of the trend and use pullbacks to increase my odds of success.
i think 4187
tks lawrence
looks like it does not want to go up at all.
hmm…my fingers are itchy.
Thank you Mark for the great signals, I will try and catch this one. If I got my narrow carcass out of bed on time this morning I think I would have caught Yesterdays signal.lol :) Have a great morning I’ll talk to you when I get up after some zzzzzzz;)
im waiting 4320 then short
Lawrence,
What made you wait for 4320?
In fact, not a bad day yesterday. I went short on GBPUSD (which usually moves like EURUSD, but has larger span) at 1.6219 in the European morning, and I made over 50 pips on steady move down during the day. Could get up to +80 pips, as the resistance at 1.6130 was hit as planned, but I was too afraid to let it run in the evening…
hi all
shorted at 4328 stop loss at 4358
we see how it goes.
hi again
mover s/l to 4348
also shorted aud at 8811 since i missed the gbp at 6090.
Do you mind me asking the thinking behind these two shorts?
hi james
based on mark suggested level to short between 14350 -14290,at around 14330 was the top of the day during perth time, so i think it was a good level then.
i normlly trade in 2-3 pairs, so the logical pair would be gbp or the chf. since the chf still stuck in a narrow range so i picked the gbp. however i missed it and the next pair that tracked the euro closely was the aud. hence, i shorted the aud.
Okay, just curious. Both were looking bullish after breaking 1.43 and 0.88. Best of luck with them.
Hi James
Nice to see your are with Piphut. Are you a longterm trader?
im waiting candlestick for confirmation to short
im also waiting candlestick for confirmation to short eur/usd and aud/usd
Hey, may I ask what timeframe are you looking for confirmation? Which would be better, 5 or 15?
Kevin, the longer the tf the better. I look at 30m, 1h and 4h sometimes.
im using 30m,1h,2h,4h.. for short term trading/intraday good signal can be on 30m and 1h. on smaller timeframe you have to much false signals.
im also using 1h
hey all
going to the gym for a few hours.
lower my s/l to 4342 and 8838.
c u later.
Mirza
what about the candle now
Hello Everybody,
Has the candle confirmed now? If not please let us know
thanx to all
Any Update MIRZA
im short on aud/usd, 9:00GMT 30m chart, that was good signal, i didnt yet open on eur/usd.. we well see, maybe soon, im just following mark’s instructions.
it seems that 50 SMA 1h chart is good resistence last 10 days.
Good morning everyone!
Thanks for Mark, and thanks for keeping in mind the money management, its the most important issue in trading.
Still waiting for corfimation…
My friend a old trader send me his tecnicals yesterday about 15 gmt
His key word: Recooperation
above 1.426 long with targets 1.4425 , 1.4500 and extensions
alternative under 1.426 go for short, targets 1.4175 and 1.408
Im short after 30 min bearish candlestick at 9.30 GMT
Any one can update us ?
thanx to all
waiting this news(Existing Home Sales) come out.
Good signal H1 Eur/Gbp
It was indeed Hendrik! I was watching it too. I didn’t get in on it though as the trend is bullish today on EUR/GBP. I’m waiting to go long after the retracement
Remy the H4 trend on e/g is down
But it’s been way up from midnight till now…
hi all
positions all squared.
+26 and + 11,
12 hours just to make 37 pips.
waiting to sell gbp post-gbp news.
Haniff,
I guess pluses are always better than minuses.
Looks like a target of 4245 is feasible.
Hendrik where do you think we are heading?
Joe we are heading down. The news at 8:30 was just a hick up I took profit and looking for a re-entry point.
thanks Hendrik, saw a hammer on 1h g/u
Any news about the (Existing Home Sales)result
you will have to wait for another 3 hours
US 3Q GDP Rose 2.2%; Less Than Earlier Estimated
By LUCA DI LEO AND MEENA THIRUVENGADAM
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy’s recovery wasn’t as strong as earlier believed, the government said Tuesday, revising its third-quarter numbers down for the second time to show lower constuction and inventory investments.
Gross Domestic Product 3Q 3Q 2Q Overall GDP Growth +2.2% +2.8% -0.7%
PCE Price Index +2.6% +2.7% +1.4%
Consensus: +2.7%
Actual: +2.2%
Gross domestic product rose at a 2.2% annual rate July through September, after falling by 0.7% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported in its third GDP estimate. Last month, the department revised its third-quarter GDP growth estimate to 2.8% from an originally reported 3.5%.
The new figure was below Wall Street forecasts. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting the GDP revision to show growth of 2.7%.
New resistance at .4310 and support still at .4270.Possible bearish flag forming on d 4H chart(just like before).the news will tell…I hope it favours the bears ;)
hey O’toba so you are saying .4310 is a good resisting point?
yeah…as at the time I posted that(as u can see on the chart as well),the news myt negate that.
its too risky, wait the news..
from where r u getting your news Mirza TV, or Net?
Good morning all, I think we only have about 30 mins till the news.
Morning Man, Just a simple question from where you are getting your news.
Hey Carlos, I get my news from a stream of rss feeds on Oanda. They have a resource link on there home page. The news comes from various locations.
thanks man i will check that :)
Put oanda login in your search bar click on the link and then find the resource link scroll down to fx news its called (atnabtu)
By Bradley Davis
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The dollar declined against the euro Tuesday after a worse-than-expected measure of U.S. economic growth cut into the perception the U.S. was emerging from recession at a quicker pace than its competitors.
The slower than previously reported growth could dim expectation the Federal Reserve will increase key interest rates sooner than had been expected, kicking the legs out from under the dollar’s recent support.
“This does set back a lot of the case for rate-hike expectations of the Fed going sooner rather than later,” said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, N.J. “For me it alters the landscape.”
“I’m very cautious about the U.S. recovery,” Dolan said. “This type of data shows that we’re starting from a much weaker position than we thought.”
Tuesday morning, the euro was at $1.4308 from $1.4283, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y91.43 from Y91.19, while the euro was at Y130.81 from Y130.25. The U.K. pound was at $1.6015 from $1.6051. The dollar was at CHF1.0464 from 1.0462.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 78.018 from 78.059.
Some investors believe the Fed could increase U.S. interest rates at a quicker pace than previously thought after a stream of U.S. data–including important jobs numbers–came in better than expected.
But the final third-quarter gross domestic product reading, which was revised downward, could dash those prospects, analysts said.
GDP rose at a 2.2% annual rate July through September, after falling by 0.7% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported in its third GDP estimate. Last month, the department revised its third-quarter GDP growth estimate to 2.8% from an originally reported 3.5%.
The new figure was below Wall Street forecasts. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting the GDP revision to show growth of 2.7%.
Although the greenback lost ground to its rivals in the wake of GDP data, the euro managed only a slight gain on the day.
The dollar also held onto most of its gains against the yen after soaring overnight to a nearly two-month high against Japanese currency as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa confirmed overnight that Japanese interest rates would remain near zero.
Overnight, the euro had managed to eke out some gains on the dollar after Moody’s Investor Service downgraded the debt of Greece, which is struggling with a mighty budget deficit, but left its rating higher than two rival ratings agencies. The euro gave up those gains by early morning trading, before recovering on the dollar after the U.S. GDP reading.
High levels of sovereign debt in the euro zone and U.K. have weighed on the euro and U.K. pound, with the dollar taking the wind out of the sails of the formerly high-flying currencies in recent days.
“Sovereign risk has quickly come to the forefront and we believe that it will prove a key driver of [currencies] throughout 2010,” said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
Still, traders warned the dollar’s recent strength could be partly a function of thinly traded, pre-holiday markets, as investors reposition their portfolios ahead of year end.
Meanwhile, the U.K. pound was dented overnight and remained near a two-month low after the third-quarter U.K. gross domestic product was revised up to show a decline of 0.2% from a 0.3% drop. Some forecasters had been looking for bigger upward revision, maybe even showing positive growth on the quarter.
Canada Morning
The Canadian dollar is outperforming most of its rivals early Tuesday, gaining strongly against the U.S. dollar as prospects for a Canadian economic recovery are outpacing those for a U.S. turnaround.
The Canadian currency could give up some of its gains if crude oil continues to slip in the North American session, according to Scotia Capital analysts.
Early Tuesday, the U.S. dollar was at C$1.0572 from C$1.0601 late Monday.
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=104&mode=view
David,
A good looking chart but I was just wondering if you could put some explanation with what’s going on for a newbie so I can learn and understand what I’m looking at. For example, where did you get the different levels and what do the different colors represent.
Lisa, the different levels are just support and resistance, the colors are yellow bullish scenario and purple is bearish, and using pattern recognition I came up with a bearish descending triangle, the eur can still drop with a divergence in the macd, it means be MORE careful with the shorts at this level. I hope that helps. cheers, and merry Christmas!
Well that’s good news on home sales:)
Thanks Matt, i went to atnabtu, i saw all the news there appreciated
Not a problem, I also use Marks forex calender. Both together work good for me.
did u short at 1.4310 or waiting to get higher?
Yes it is good news the result more than they expected
USD Existing Home Sales Actual 6.54M Forecast 6.29M Previous 6.09M
Break below .4270 may open probability to .4200.
O’toba this is second day i’m reading your comments and the R points were precise :)
Market can act the way it likes…so we must be careful
I set up a sell last night at 1.4330 and another one at 1.4350. The one at 1.4330 got filled and gave me some good pips. Yesterday 330 was giving problems to the bulls. Right now I am making breakfast for the little ones so I will wait for it to jump up again?????
that was clever to do that at night i might want to start doing that also :) i dont know if it going to jump back :) hope it will to get in again
I have missed a couple of Marks signals, I seem to wake up and price has already moved. So I just picked out some resistance levels and hoped for the best. I don’t like to do it much because you never know what going to happen while your asleep but I also don’t like missing moves. When I do it I stay to a low number of units like 500.
Another support at .4240 if broken,the next support .4200
woow big move! Dropped 30 pips in a matter of seconds!!!
HI there , im new in the pip hut :)
Just wanted to say what cause that abnormal drop ?
I don’t know… there was no big news released at that time so there’s really no sure explanation here
The news released earlier did not have effect ountil now…it was wrestling with the tough resistance at .4270.needed to break the resistance,it did…then the ‘big move’.
Also…if u include the bollinger band on the 1HR chart,there’s been a bollinger squeeze…after the squeeze is a break out.
You might have a point but I personally don’t think the news had such a big impact because they didn’t have a clear direction (positive for the housing sector but negative for the GDP). That said, I agree with you that a break of the 4270 support initiated a selling spree.
Bearish technicals and thin-markets make them easy to push. It’s possible the good news on housing helped to give it the push but I honestly doubt it.
Yeah I really don’t think it was the news on this one… it would be a 50 minutes delay, the market reacts more quickly than that
There was a strong resistance at .4270,all the news needed was to break it,it took a while to break it.u myt wanna look at my post at 3.16pm
sory…support
Matt u r still in from 1.4330? i hope so…
Yeah 100+ pips just before Christmas… you made yourself a nice gift if you stayed in!!
I was out buying a gift for my grandma and got back to late for the ride… hope she like her gift hahaha!!!
Better to like it
No, I jumped out a little early. I just got back from the market to see it dropped again. Hopefully it comes back up soon so I can jump back in. Yippee what a great day:) Hey, is Christmas in December? lol!
this triangle break measures way lower.
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=105&mode=view
I am trying your tecnicals ! Allready have got my 100 pips for the day, so little extra dosent no harm. merry Christmas hohoho
thanks! got my signal 10 pips allready!
4295 area is doable, I’m at b e now and will add up there.
Thanks David , my son David is waiting Santa like crazy.
I closed got just 10 pips! Waiting for a stronger signal.
At my fibonacci after 4280 it more than 0,5 so waiting after ,5 and signal to pull the trigger
Hey just a side note, has anyone read the book ” Trading in the zone”. It is a killer book that I am LOVING. Mark I know you have most likely read it what were thoughts.
Matt, “Trading in the Zone” changed my life and helped me to be a much more successful trader. It is well worth the price. Really helped give me a new perspective on the market and how I interpreted it.
This book is blowing my mind as far as why I do the things I do. I am only on page 37 but wow what a book. I think it will help me more than I thought when I ordered it. WoW!
I need to read that one, where did you get it?
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=107&mode=view
Hey David,I hope you are having a wonderful day, I got it at Amazon.com it’s called Trading the zone by Mark Douglas. I am very impressed by the book. Like Brendan said “how do you know that much about me?”
Haha…yeah, when I read it I was like, “how do you know that much about me?” it was pretty interesting how we’re all really alike in a lot of ways and when we figure out how to tweak what we’re doing, we can be really successful.