12-4-09
5:41a GMT – Yesterday’s signals produced a trade (which is still open) at 1.5050 (currently a little bit in the profit) though I have tightened the stop as 4h charts are leaning toward a bearish consolidation pattern. Another reason I have tightened the stop considerably is because on the daily chart a bearish shooting star was produced so today could be a bearish profit-taking day for the markets. The AUD/USD trade I mentioned in the comments produced good pips as well :).
As far as yesterday’s news went Bernanke again talked about protecting the dollar – but the markets have heard this many times from Bernanke and never have his actions matched his words. In fact his actions (historically low interest rates) have said the exact opposite: that he at the moment cares very little about the value of the USD. One interesting thing he did say at his Senate meetings was that he would consider using interest rates to “burst” asset bubbles before they got too big.
Daily Outlook: Even as I write this we are seeing a bit of a bounce in the EUR/USD, which is good for our trade, but the signals for today are a bit mixed. The bearish shooting star on the daily chart yesterday and the potential double-top at 1.5140 are signals for a potential return to channel bottom around 1.4880. I will keep my long open from yesterday with a tight stop, though a break of support at 1.5025 will open the short-term bearish challenge of 1.4970. If it reaches this level I will look for bullish candlesticks to buy on.
News Events: Be weary of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and the US unemployment data due to come out around 13:30 GMT. Markets are usually choppy around news events.
Trading Idea: On a break of 1.5025 look for a challenge of 1.4970 support, around which I will look for buying opportunities with targets at 1.5000, 1.5030 and 1.5065.
(click to enlarge)
Update Graph: Big drop today. Wanted to post this longer term chart to give you some perspective on the drop. Looks like a better buying opp as it approaches that lower trend support doesn’t it?
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December 4, 2009 at 16:58
went long at 4978 stop at 4960. Actually tried to click on 4872 but it bounced back to quick hahahah.
Reason why i went long is because it tried to break 4970 but didn’t break it. It’s probably gonna retest later though.
December 4, 2009 at 16:58
Also, it looks like a doji is forming!
December 4, 2009 at 17:04
Mark, I want to say thanks for this site, really a place to feel well and friendly environment…
thanks for this opportunity for us.
December 4, 2009 at 17:09
Mark I have a question. The candlestick alert says the doji was bearish. Ok the body was red so it was a bearish doji but it’s a reversal sign so in this case it should be seen as a bullish sign right? (although not as reliable as if it had been a green body off course)
December 4, 2009 at 17:11
Went in a little late today.
Long @ 1.48918.
I saw a relatively good support at 1.4884, miss that mark though.
December 4, 2009 at 17:30
I’m still waiting to see how the 1.4865 support holds.
December 4, 2009 at 17:33
Mark, for first time in awhile the dollar diverged from stock market but now it seems to be following it again, FWIW.
December 4, 2009 at 17:35
Yea, that is a stronger support for sure.
Think i’ll leave it rolling over the weekend and hopefully it gaps up on Monday due to the oversold signals.
Cheers!
December 4, 2009 at 17:39
Mark,
One question.
The overall EURUSD trend is still upward before the 1.4800 support is broken. So the strategy is still to buy on dips?
What is your further outlook for the pair?
From what i see, if by the end of the year, the pair does not cross the resistance of 1.5145, it might be in for a downturn.
December 4, 2009 at 18:40
if you look at the numbers today and the drop we have had, why stand in front of a moving train. I posted the view short term this morning from AC and wont even think of any more trade until sunday. Rode the short from 5045 on the news drop closed at 4855 and done with this for now. I am still looking for 1.45 before end of the year
December 4, 2009 at 17:41
Looks like the 55ema caught the shorts. I went long with tp at the fibo levels. Based off the doji in the hourly time frame. C’mon bulls :)
December 4, 2009 at 17:47
taugh day :)
December 4, 2009 at 17:53
Hey Carlos. Yeah, I know what you mean, look at the bright side when it goes back up to 1.5100 we will be on board the pip train. (The glass is always half full).
December 4, 2009 at 18:04
Mattd365,
I just love the way you put that!
Hope it happens soon!
December 4, 2009 at 18:25
Hey Brandon, I am just hoping for the best, staying positive. I am just looking at this as a great buying opportunity. I am however keeping an open mind. Only time will tell :)
December 4, 2009 at 18:58
Thanks Matt for the spirit, have a nice day see you on monday. Thanks, everybody and off course Mr. President!! :)
December 4, 2009 at 18:11
Will be going to bed with hopes.
Position @ 1.48918
Deep SL @ 1.47900
No big news on Monday.
Ciao
December 4, 2009 at 18:37
almost to target and i am out and gone for the weekend
December 4, 2009 at 18:37
I have been at this site for 3 days now observing and learning. I want to tell all of you that I have learned more in the past 3 days than the prior 60 days combined. All of you have helped me learn what level I’m at and what level I need to get to. I want to say thank you for your help and God bless. Have a great weekend and I’ll be back next week to continue my education.
December 4, 2009 at 18:48
Hey Dawvee, this is a great place to come and learn. The people here seem to really want to help each other. I am glad you are learning allot, I am to. Have a great weekend see ya on Monday.
December 4, 2009 at 18:46
On the daily chart price is sitting right now at the 50 ema, crucial levels for me now are 1.4820-50 to keep with the uptrend. Also, barrier options rumored around 1.4850.
December 4, 2009 at 18:50
look like no more uptrend! :)
December 4, 2009 at 19:01
No good candle yet, Am signing out. HAPPY WEEKEND Mark and Everyone
December 4, 2009 at 19:09
Alright, I have had enough fun for one day. I’m out for the weekend. Wish you all a wonderful weekend, I think I have found a good place to share my forex goals and make friends along the way. Thanks for everything. Talk to you all Monday.
December 4, 2009 at 19:22
can someone tell those in control of bear, that there is tomorrow…the sun will get up again, they dont need to take it all today!! :)
December 4, 2009 at 19:33
1900 gmt 30m (+) theres the reversal
December 4, 2009 at 19:35
lets hope so, im staying out though. closing soon.
December 4, 2009 at 21:11
I enjoyed working with you fellow Piphutters this week, until next week!!!
Mark, have a wonderful weekend because you desire it and thank you for everything. May God bless you.
December 4, 2009 at 23:02
Have a good weekend all
Matt
December 6, 2009 at 20:48
hi all…
good week start for everyone…
December 6, 2009 at 22:37
Will the euro go up earlier in the week or will the usd gain more strength this week any predictions?
December 6, 2009 at 23:34
personally i am less confidence on the bulls….
but i am not daring to sell or buy for now!
i am standing aside…
December 6, 2009 at 23:55
Hey everyone! Charles I’m with you and standing aside till morning. I thought that it might be able to go up a bit today, but????
December 7, 2009 at 00:34
she’s going up I caught the Ichimoku cloud at 1.4823 from friday as well looking good going to monday lets make some better days. Oh yea!!!
December 7, 2009 at 05:10
Just closed my position flat from Friday.
Standing one side for now as the pair is trading sideways from now. However, there probably could be a “market moving news” from Trichet’s press conference at 13:30GMT, which could start a mini bull-run. According to the same source, risk appetite has also increased.
No big news tonight.
Waiting for Marks’ comments to confirm further trade.
December 7, 2009 at 06:07
Hey Brandon, I hope you had a wonderful weekend. I with you, it would be nice to see a close above 1.4900, that would get me more confident in a nice little bull move. Talk to ya in the morning..
December 7, 2009 at 06:15
good morning all…
i see very little action in Asia…