12-4-09
5:41a GMT – Yesterday’s signals produced a trade (which is still open) at 1.5050 (currently a little bit in the profit) though I have tightened the stop as 4h charts are leaning toward a bearish consolidation pattern. Another reason I have tightened the stop considerably is because on the daily chart a bearish shooting star was produced so today could be a bearish profit-taking day for the markets. The AUD/USD trade I mentioned in the comments produced good pips as well :).
As far as yesterday’s news went Bernanke again talked about protecting the dollar – but the markets have heard this many times from Bernanke and never have his actions matched his words. In fact his actions (historically low interest rates) have said the exact opposite: that he at the moment cares very little about the value of the USD. One interesting thing he did say at his Senate meetings was that he would consider using interest rates to “burst” asset bubbles before they got too big.
Daily Outlook: Even as I write this we are seeing a bit of a bounce in the EUR/USD, which is good for our trade, but the signals for today are a bit mixed. The bearish shooting star on the daily chart yesterday and the potential double-top at 1.5140 are signals for a potential return to channel bottom around 1.4880. I will keep my long open from yesterday with a tight stop, though a break of support at 1.5025 will open the short-term bearish challenge of 1.4970. If it reaches this level I will look for bullish candlesticks to buy on.
News Events: Be weary of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and the US unemployment data due to come out around 13:30 GMT. Markets are usually choppy around news events.
Trading Idea: On a break of 1.5025 look for a challenge of 1.4970 support, around which I will look for buying opportunities with targets at 1.5000, 1.5030 and 1.5065.
(click to enlarge)
Update Graph: Big drop today. Wanted to post this longer term chart to give you some perspective on the drop. Looks like a better buying opp as it approaches that lower trend support doesn’t it?
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December 4, 2009 at 07:28
Does a tight stop mean?larger or smaller sl?
December 4, 2009 at 07:39
Mark is using a sl of 40 – 50 pips. So what he means is that he will be reducing the sl say to 25 for example.
December 4, 2009 at 14:25
Actually on that one after it started to rise I put a trailing stop of 20 on it, so it stopped out at 1.5070.
December 4, 2009 at 07:42
It has allready shoot up :)
December 4, 2009 at 07:50
I’m hoping that it can go up to 5120 just to make the long worthwhile
December 4, 2009 at 07:57
yep same here
December 4, 2009 at 08:26
0820 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD came within a whisker of a fresh 2009 high Thursday before retracing and Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph says it could retest the 1.50 support area before rebounding. He still sees scope for a run toward 1.5245 once the 1.5145 high is breached, however with the daily RSI showing triple divergence he is wary of the strength of the current upmove. EUR/USD now at 1.5081. (GST)
December 4, 2009 at 08:55
EUR is acting crazy … i hope this is just a smal retracment :/ and GBP is crazy to 100 pips in last hour lol
December 4, 2009 at 09:09
I think eu might find a lower support. Go through your daily and 4hour chart
December 4, 2009 at 09:28
I am trading against most people – i am short, lol
December 4, 2009 at 09:55
oh! why?
December 4, 2009 at 11:45
1. the pin bar on the daily
2. double top on the 4hr
This is not likely to work as today is NFP but i have protected myself with a tight stop.
December 4, 2009 at 09:38
I’ll wait until the news then go long I think it’s the best thing to do. thanks for ur comments and good luck with the news 2 nite
December 4, 2009 at 09:53
heh! 10pip profit, better than a loss atleast. Gonna wait for the news and try to get in lower again (marks plan)
December 4, 2009 at 10:14
Morning everybody, so what mark is saying close the long? and take a tight profit, then wait for 1.4980-1.4970 area if 1.5025 is broken after the NFP Report and go Long?
December 4, 2009 at 10:25
Well, he didnt say to close it, but more like protect your gains i think.
December 4, 2009 at 10:34
By Nicholas Hastings
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)–The dollar is mixed and the euro is weaker in Europe Friday as the market waits for the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Although payrolls are expected to have declined less last month than they did the previous month, it is possible the data still won’t allay concerns about the U.S. recovery.
The euro started the day higher but soon went into reverse despite a clear signal from the European Central Bank on Thursday that it is now winding down the emergency funding operations it introduced because of the credit crunch. Although this move was seen by some as a start of the bank’s exit strategy, others felt that the ECB is still cautious and failing to be as hawkish as expected.
A report that Dubai World’s creditors are rejecting restructuring terms has added to market uncertainty even though global sentiment had started to improve again during Asian trading, lifting the Nikkei 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index 1.6%.
However, the main market mover is still likely to be the payrolls number, which is forecast to show a fall of 125,000 in November, less than the 190,000 decline reported in October.
The market impact of a good number could be muted, though, given that other recent U.S. data has been relatively disappointing. Also, analysts pointed to the unusual warning from the White House that unemployment “might tick upward.”
“We believe that if the unemployment rate continues to rise following last month’s surprise rise, markets will react negatively and boost the dollar even if the payrolls decline slows to 100K,” said Michael Hart, a currency strategist with Citigroup Inc.
December 4, 2009 at 11:01
Hello Mark ( et al ) ,
Can I pick your brains about drawing support and resistance lines please ? Your signals are wonderful, but I’d like to understand how you arrive at them and how to figure out for myself what they should be ? Not sure if you have an article for this already or if you could point me at some nice resources ? Any help is greatly appreciated.
Thanks ( again )
Paul
December 4, 2009 at 13:16
Paul,
You can go to the Piphut link at the top left side of this page.
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/learn-forex-2-support-and-resistance/
December 4, 2009 at 11:06
Nice post Hendrik Thanks.
December 4, 2009 at 11:22
Hi all…
Out of subject, I will enter short AUD/CAD after CAD employment today, any advise?
I guess on monthly we have clear signal and it imply less volatility as both are high yield…
December 4, 2009 at 11:26
Nice shooting star — what’s your spread? mine is 6
December 4, 2009 at 11:22
Have you seen the film “Fiddler on the roof”. He sang a song “If I were a rich man”
I often wonder whether he would have changed his song had he been a trader?
December 4, 2009 at 11:24
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=30&mode=view
An unfolding correction?
December 4, 2009 at 11:29
Nice chart – I can see you have applied your mind.
For my sake – I hope you’re wrong :)
December 4, 2009 at 12:33
Hendrik, there is no telling how this news will effect the market, up,down, sidewayz.
I have allways wondered if the news is pre-released to a select few?
Good luck with your trade!
December 4, 2009 at 12:43
I bet my bottom $ that there is a racket!!! :/
December 4, 2009 at 12:54
of course some people sure have access to the news little earlier, the least the related people to the one they announce!
December 4, 2009 at 13:13
David, are you the same David that posted the scalping sys in the forum section?
Can you briefly explain how to use your sys?
December 4, 2009 at 13:18
David,
Yes, can you put it in the forum with the chart/system you listed.
December 4, 2009 at 16:47
Lisa, I will try to get to that this weekend
December 4, 2009 at 16:51
Alvin, yes it is, It is basically fine tuning entries and exits, check back to the forum next week, i will try to lay out some basic rules for you, it is the best scalp set up I’ve ever traded.
December 4, 2009 at 11:31
Great how we can all post charts on here, very clear chart to read and i think the most likely outcome.
December 4, 2009 at 13:07
David,
I apologize but I’m not following all the yellow and pink/red lines on your chart. Could you explain just a little?
December 4, 2009 at 13:10
Very nice chart David, It looks like a bearish day.
December 4, 2009 at 11:29
5 pips….
but as it is on monthly chart, this should take at least couple of weeks and think 9430 and 93 80 are very reasonable targets…
what do you think?
December 4, 2009 at 12:42
good start!
December 4, 2009 at 13:08
Good morning everyone! Thanks Mark, I made some profit last night. When it broke downward out of the bearish pendant it made me kinda nervous. I had my first tp @ 1.5090. I think I was just extra super lucky it got hit. I figured it was having issues earlier trying to get through the 1.5093 level.
Matt D
December 4, 2009 at 13:43
was somebody short on that one??
December 4, 2009 at 13:45
Femi was, i guess hes happy now :)
December 4, 2009 at 13:52
haha yeah I’d be very happy too!! I was short on the GBP/USD but closed my position just before the news to be “safe”…
December 4, 2009 at 13:48
Everybody long???
December 4, 2009 at 13:55
Not yet. Mark said to wait for a test of the 4970 support… so I’m waiting for that
December 4, 2009 at 13:58
Don’t we suppose to look for bullish candlestick to buy on? As Mark would say, “Don’t want to get in front of a moving train”.
December 4, 2009 at 13:57
ok now what? 4970 just broke…
December 4, 2009 at 13:58
OMG!!! Should we reset shorts?? And wow Femi must be happyyyyyy hahaha
December 4, 2009 at 14:00
What’s the next support??
December 4, 2009 at 14:00
I have two words…. Holy cow!
December 4, 2009 at 14:01
1.4880 -1.49 im not sure exactly, but i think the long term up trend channel support is in that area.
December 4, 2009 at 14:16
I went long on a shorter time frame. I turned my back — and wack!! Lucky my SL is 150
Well cowboys do not cry — I will ride this bull
December 4, 2009 at 14:20
Yeah Hendrik let’s ride that bull. The only problem is to know where to jump on it… I wouldn’t like to lose my hat haha ^^
December 4, 2009 at 14:50
Remy,
I am sure on that short you are riding all the way to bank with your hat in your hand filled with gold, haha!
December 4, 2009 at 14:55
hahaha. No Lisa I stayed out of the market. I wish I had gone short and my hat was filled with gold though :D
December 4, 2009 at 15:05
Remy,
I apologize; it was the famous Femi that went short. Glad you stayed out instead of the long then.
December 4, 2009 at 14:20
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.5140 accelerates to as low as 1.4975 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is on the downside as long as 1.5089 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.4970 will indicate that rise from 1.4828 has completed and in such case, deeper fall should be seen to this support first. Break there will be an early signal of topping in EUR/USD and will target 1.4626 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 1.5089 resistance will dampen this case and suggest that another high above 1.5143 would be seen in EUR/USD.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear confirmation of medium term reversal yet and the rise from 1.2456 could still be in progress. However, note that upside momentum is clearly diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Hence, even in case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance at 123.6% projection of 1.2329 to 1.4719 from 1.2456 at 1.5410 to conclude the medium term rise from 1.2456 eventually. On the downside, break of 1.4626 support will now be an important indication that EUR/USD has topped out and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation
thid is from actionforex
December 4, 2009 at 14:21
safest to wait until it settles down perhaps
December 4, 2009 at 14:30
Take a look at the graph I posted today… this is the zone I’m looking for a bullish candlestick in.
December 4, 2009 at 14:32
30 min chart have bullish hammer ?? is it correct ??
December 4, 2009 at 14:35
Goto the candlestick alert service and select “30m”:
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
It agrees with you :) (but calls it a doji, technically).
I’m a bit more conservative going into the weekend. No need to get in a trade I’m not excited about. Will wait for the 1h candle.
December 4, 2009 at 14:45
There will always be another trade. No need for hurry and take those with least probability of succeeding. Haste makes waste. Right Mark?
December 4, 2009 at 14:47
There will always, always, always be another trade. Most learn that the hard way :).
December 4, 2009 at 14:56
That class cost me about 200Eur, hehe
December 4, 2009 at 14:47
In other words, don’t be a cowboy! ;)
December 4, 2009 at 14:51
Once a cowboy always a cowboy. Hey man this is fun…. enjoy it!!!
December 4, 2009 at 14:53
Sometimes cowboys break in wild horses too ;)
December 4, 2009 at 14:56
A mountain stream with no rocks in it – is silent. A stream with rocks it is music in your ears!!!
December 4, 2009 at 15:00
Yeeeha!
December 4, 2009 at 14:42
Posted an updated, longer-term graph on the signal above to put the latest drop in perspective.
December 4, 2009 at 14:54
Did anyone take the short on the break of 1.5025 that I talked about in the signal? I was planning on it but it happened so fast I missed it.
December 4, 2009 at 14:58
Mark,
I wanted to take it as well but I was out of pocket.
December 4, 2009 at 14:59
Oh, i didnt read it as a signal to short, i thought you meant to wait for a chalange of 1.4970 and long there.
December 4, 2009 at 15:12
Markus,
I think he said the signals for today was mixed. He also stated “though a break of support at 1.5025 will open the short-term bearish challenge of 1.4970″. This told me that there is a possibility for another trade which would be a sell order. Hopes this helps.
December 4, 2009 at 15:29
Its ok, I just didnt get it at the time.
December 4, 2009 at 15:34
Markus,
That’s good. Good luck on your future trading.
December 4, 2009 at 14:54
hahahahahah :)
December 4, 2009 at 14:56
Hendrik we will go broke with a fun like this :D heheh
December 4, 2009 at 15:01
pip value my mate —- pip value!!! keep it small and buildt confidence
December 4, 2009 at 15:05
good tip :/ !
i allways make a mess to my acount when going in with a few lots and have 50 pip SL just to see my SL wiped out and next day see how i could make 100+ pip per lot lol
im a triger happy :D heheh
December 4, 2009 at 15:04
And remember the guys in front of the big screens — they’re out to take your money.
December 4, 2009 at 15:12
i have FOUR big screens lol ;)
December 4, 2009 at 15:15
Alvin,
So are you taking money or giving money?
December 4, 2009 at 15:15
Wow!!! just coming in to the show, I anticipated that from a daily high of 1.5090 to 1.4911. Mark, I was going through the daily range for eu, the highest range I got was a 210pip and I know the trend is bullish. It has already dropped a 180pips, Was thinking if to get aggressive at support 1.4880? what do you guys think?
December 4, 2009 at 15:17
Are you talking about possibly going short or long?
December 4, 2009 at 15:35
long.. Lisa, Am waiting for 1.4890-1.4880 or a good confirmation on the H1 chart
December 4, 2009 at 15:38
Nnagozie,
I wished I would have waited until that range to go long. I went long at 1.4970
December 4, 2009 at 15:47
yes the Market is still noisy, will wait to see good bounces off those support, maybe the next hour candlestick (1600 GMT)to close
December 4, 2009 at 15:16
I was short @ 1.5050 and I got 110 pips. I thought I was wrong. But I made it.
December 4, 2009 at 15:20
Priya,
Why did you decide to go short @ 1.5050?
December 4, 2009 at 15:26
I am not very good with charts. I look at the price and call me crazy, I thought for a while, if Mark says to go long at 1.497, I can go short at 1.505 to get almost 80 pips.
December 4, 2009 at 15:35
Priya,
What did you have in place just in case it didn’t go to the 1.4970 range but in fact went up?
December 4, 2009 at 15:42
When I place a trade, I will be ready for the consequences. As I told u earlier, I look at the price and take advantage of the idea from others. I am long @ 1.000 on USD/CHF also. It’s doing well. I locked the stop (now) at + 50 pips and left the TP open.
December 4, 2009 at 15:16
FYI I am in long at 1.4935 on the 1h bullish candlestick. Will keep stop tight until 4h candle can cofirm the trade.
December 4, 2009 at 15:25
Mark, do you have a target?
December 4, 2009 at 15:31
i got in @ 4926 but i think i should have waited a little
December 4, 2009 at 15:35
I am long too @ 1.4915
December 4, 2009 at 15:42
market dropped a bit there. Has it taken your sl Mark?
December 4, 2009 at 15:47
It sure did. I had a very tight stop though so not a big loss. I’ll look to re-enter lower.
December 4, 2009 at 15:53
Yes that’s the right thing to do. I think I was also a bit too hasty in entering my long. Didn’t take my stop yet but I’m afraid it will… Your prediction of a test of the 4870 resistance was right i think. Maybe a bit higher at 4980. We’ll see.
December 4, 2009 at 16:00
Ok NOW it took my stop. Wow lost quite a bit of money today, good think that I have a small account!
December 4, 2009 at 15:59
Long at 1.49 keeping fingers crossed
December 4, 2009 at 16:18
up! up! up!
December 4, 2009 at 15:18
hi Mark, does going long eurusd and long usdchf limit the risk?
i know they contradict and limit profit too…but any sense in that hedge?
December 4, 2009 at 15:24
That could be considered a type of hedge I guess. Possible downsides are: 1) correlation is not 100% so possibility exists you could lose on both and double your losses, 2) you pay the spread twice so you are paying twice as much to enter the trade.
December 4, 2009 at 15:28
ok…got it.
i will than hold with wait and see…better lost trade than lost money1 :)
without consuming much of your time, did u had a look on the trade i entered short audcad, it is well in profit now with over 100 pips, technically my take profit at 9430 make sense?
apologize if i am posting on the wrong forum or out of subject.
December 4, 2009 at 15:30
Hi Mark and everyone can I quickly draw your attention to this
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=32
December 4, 2009 at 15:35
There was a quite big difference in in NFP to what was expected, do you think its enough to break out of the long term trend?
December 4, 2009 at 15:45
I’m actually surprised the EURUSD is down on the news. In this risk driven market positive economic news has in the recent past equated to a drop in the USD and investors take on more risk and invest in higher yielding currencies such as the EUR. This also runs counter to the US stock correlation.
My thoughts are that this NFP report is too positive – which may lead to Bernanke actually following through on his promise to raise rates.
December 4, 2009 at 15:57
Yeah I read somewhere that the pair dropped due to expectations that the US interest rate would rise
December 4, 2009 at 16:11
The new interest rate is decided when? Wednesday? or how does that work?
December 4, 2009 at 16:18
It doesn’t get changed every week. You have to look at the economic calendar
December 4, 2009 at 15:42
I haven’t talked about the signals service I’m going to be rolling out but one of the signals just can’t seem to lose (I hope I don’t jinx it by saying that). Last month was 13/14 (93% win rate) for ~740 pips profit. And I’ve taken in more than that the way that I’ve been trading the signal it generates.
December 4, 2009 at 15:51
What is it ?
December 4, 2009 at 15:53
The signals service? It’s a service that will generate specific signals on multiple pairs, with all the stop-loss, take-profit and entry information included. I’ve talked about it now and again over the past few months but it is not ready to be released yet.
December 4, 2009 at 16:04
Sounds very interesting. Today has been a total stress, looking forward to the weekend !! HAve good one
December 4, 2009 at 16:14
Seams very cool, looking forward too seeing that. But wow! 93%. Did you make a deal with the devil?
December 4, 2009 at 16:26
haha yeah 93% is crazy!! Mark, how long have you been testing the signal service?
December 4, 2009 at 16:30
5 years of backtesting and 2 months live so far.
December 4, 2009 at 17:27
Ok sounds good to me. The hard part is sticking to the signals hehe. I sometimes wish i was a machine lol
December 4, 2009 at 16:04
Hi Mark
Do you think i can go long now, it is at the bottom of the channel?
December 4, 2009 at 16:20
I’d wait a little… don’t do the same mistake as we made by being too hasty. It’s better to wait until the uptrend gets confirmed
December 4, 2009 at 16:04
Yes eu has droped over 200pip$ waiting for a confirmation to Buy….
December 4, 2009 at 16:08
Hey guys! This is a bit out of context here but look at the GBP/USD 10 min graph if you can. That’s a textbook example of the fibonacci retracement. Retraced 61.8% then dropped lol. I had never seen such a perfect example in real life.
December 4, 2009 at 16:18
Here is the link to the graph: http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=33
December 4, 2009 at 16:28
EUR/USD just broke 4980… How low is this gonna go?! Not time to go bullish just yet
December 4, 2009 at 16:35
Boy! Is there a bottom to this thing or what it’s just blowing through all the support lines. Lots of money being made today. I feel bad for the people trying to going long at each support that is broken. I’m just looking for a hammer to go long. How are you all doing.
December 4, 2009 at 16:43
my stop is at 1.4860 so its awfully close
December 4, 2009 at 16:49
I think it will go to 1.4830 area, I feel kinda bad, I haven’t made much this week and never even saw this coming. I figured it would go to 1.5000-1.4970 and then bounce back up. The cool thing is when it does turn around we will make it big. Remember the glass is always half full. :)
December 4, 2009 at 16:56
Well if it gets hit, ill just go in again lower somwhere in the area u talked about maybe. lets see.
December 4, 2009 at 16:36
Mark, don’t let hendrix cowboy rub off on you. one trade per pair per day, just like the good old piphut days :)
December 4, 2009 at 18:42
Would you kindly explain that please!!
December 4, 2009 at 16:51
i am going long now with stop @4790…finger crossed!
December 4, 2009 at 16:53
still falling!!!! I rather wait
December 4, 2009 at 16:53
Mark, Did you see my question last night about the patterns
December 4, 2009 at 16:56
Sorry I didn’t respond – I’m going to add more patterns to the candlestick guide/service, just haven’t gotten around to it yet.
If you want to add some information to the forum I’d love that and be thankful! I’d prefer if you didn’t just post up a link to another site though as I’d like to build as much information on PipHut as possible.
December 4, 2009 at 17:04
Cool! I’d love to help :) I didn’t just want to post the link with out asking you first. I figure it’s best for us to be here on piphut and be sent somewhere else. Anyway I can help just let me know. Do you use html on piphut. If so I’ll start putting stuff together and send it to you.