12-15-09
EMAIL ALERT – I know that no email alert was sent out for today’s signal! I’m upgrading the PipHut mail server to handle the increased load. Should be up and running for tomorrow’s signal and hopefully you will get signals quicker too :).
6:14a GMT – Well we had a whole lot of nothing yesterday with the EUR/USD yesterday. Early in the day we did have a move upwards which stalled out around 1.4675 (the 50% fibo of the Dec 11th high/low) and dropped 50 or so pips but that was really the only action of the day. After that the EUR/USD just stumbled about around 1.4650 without any real direction.
Daily Outlook: Despite the lack of direction yesterday afternoon I am still very bearish on the pair as it continues to make lower lows and lower lows. My real concern at this point is that in these thinner markets (markets thin out toward the end of the year/holiday season) we can see a big spike in volatility, and a big spike in volatility is usually preceded by a tight range day. Just like we had yesterday. So keep that in the back of your mind when deciding whether or not you want to enter that trade :). We do have some sentiment news coming out of Germany around 10a GMT and some inflation news coming out of the States around 13:30 GMT. You can read more about the day’s news events/details at the forex calendar here.
Trading Idea: Looking for selling opportunities, but will look higher up as volatility is a serious concern in these holiday-thin markets. I am looking for short candlestick signals in fairly big band of resistance, currently 1.4700-1.4730. I will look on the 30m, 1h and 4h charts for a good entry signal. Short targets from 1.4730 are 1.4700, 1.4675, 1.4640 and 1.4605.
(click to enlarge)
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December 15, 2009 at 07:57
Are we in for a test of the supp of 4585??
December 15, 2009 at 08:15
Hi Mark,
Now 1.4595, if breaks 1.4580 should we go short?
On the other hand, if reach 1.4720, your entry point, that will be like 100+ pips rise.Do you think it might be a signal for a short term bullish?
December 15, 2009 at 08:21
Hi Tenkis
Cold enough in your part of the woods? Here in South Africa it’s HOT. I’m short since yesterday. If we get good news for the second time (in two hours time) we might see a further drop.
December 15, 2009 at 08:33
I will like to agree with Tenkis, although I entered short some couple of hours ago and n on 68pips.Great move Hendrik,I was confused yesterday. there is a resistance at 1.4520,I guess thats where it is heading.
December 15, 2009 at 08:34
My mistake SUPPORT
December 15, 2009 at 08:46
Hi Hendrik,
live in the fridge, that’s haw thay describe Antarctica, but also is a summer time now if you are a escimo(abt -1 Celsius):)))
P.S. – Nice call with the shorts
December 15, 2009 at 09:03
Hendrik, do thay still serving this amazing Mozambique shrimps and embaressing cold beer in waterfront(Cape Town)?I’ve had a night to remember there:)))
Which is your home town anyway?
December 15, 2009 at 14:54
Tenkis
I’m 150 km from Cape Town in the Western cape. A little country town call Porterville. The only thing that divides us from HELL is barbed wire — sometimes even that melts.
A Sa team recently left for Antarctica to help the Germans break down their old base and build something else.
Will you be home for Xmas? If not, you will be in all of our thoughts… :)
December 15, 2009 at 11:59
Hi Hendrik
Where about in South Africa are you from, Im in Durban!
December 15, 2009 at 14:55
Western Cape , Porterville see reply to Tenkis
December 15, 2009 at 16:16
Tenkis, I think you can see the answer to the “short-term bullish” question now ;). In general though I never trade against my trend for the day, so even if I expect a slight/rise or fall I will not trade on that. So for example today even though I was looking for a slight rise I did not go long in anticipation.
December 15, 2009 at 08:28
I missed this one as well, but got back in on audusd and also Gold since late last night. Doing goood:)
December 15, 2009 at 08:33
Do not feel bad. At least you have a good trade going.
December 15, 2009 at 08:36
Indeed, Its just the greedy little bastard inside me, haha
December 15, 2009 at 08:38
I always leave money on the table. Mark’s management plan keeps me in check.
December 15, 2009 at 08:29
Hey guys. This ride from 620 has been fun! Closed out, gotta go back to bed. See ya in about 4 hours
December 15, 2009 at 08:37
Hello just closed out yesterdays sell for about 74 pips looking for a new pip profit today
December 15, 2009 at 08:44
Good trade Don. Keep it up. Now to look for a rally.
December 15, 2009 at 08:47
thank you hendrik you bet that took a lot of patience from me lol where are you entering your trade today?
December 15, 2009 at 09:21
I’m looking for a rally beneath 4585. I doubt that it will reach there before the news in about an hour’s time. I hope for another good trade — it will make up for yesterday’s. (Now I’m moaning with the white bread under my arm)
December 15, 2009 at 09:01
Good morning from southern spain, day started with a really nice yesterdays enrty short 80pips, still keeping it open, with a close stop.
With the German news is there a rebound expected??
December 15, 2009 at 09:13
closed and changed for long , with a short lease. Thin market allways trying all posibilities.
December 15, 2009 at 09:23
Malaga?
I expect another drop.
December 15, 2009 at 09:30
Close , Estepona, missed the drop, but made 10 pips with long
December 15, 2009 at 09:35
Hola Tommy, Estepona is nice, how is the weather now?
December 15, 2009 at 10:25
Spent a couple of days in Costa Del Sol. Like to return to Spain one of these days. So much history :)
December 15, 2009 at 09:35
wow.. it’s 1.4532 now.. think will close my position.. enough with 80 pips… thanx guys~
December 15, 2009 at 09:57
i miss the bear..:(
December 15, 2009 at 10:05
Germany : ZEW Survey
Released on 12/15/2009 10:00:00 GMT For Dec, 2009
Consensus Actual
Current Conditions -60.1 -60.6
Bus. Expectations 50 50.4
Definition
The monthly survey, conducted by the Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for major industrial economies.
December 15, 2009 at 10:31
Only got 34pips from yesterdays short but I will take positive pips any day!!! Anybody going long?
December 15, 2009 at 10:48
Hi Ed
I closed the short and went long without any reason which is contra Mark’s teachings and I think I might live to regret it :((/:
December 15, 2009 at 11:31
Hey Hendrik,
Did the same except I moved my SL to break even when I seen the pull back. I like to play it ultra safe when I go against the grain. ;0)
December 15, 2009 at 11:45
I am with the long aswell. Put too tight stops, wasting my time, but its so cold outside so nothing else to do. Waiting a little pullback.
December 15, 2009 at 12:26
Ed I was lucky — closed with a bit of profit. It’s sideways, but also near today’s support. I’m looking for a good entry for a short and that I might only get in lower time frame.
December 15, 2009 at 12:50
Like a fooooool. I went long again. Got burned for -28pips. :(
And like a foooool I went short ( can somebody say revenge trading ). Not doing things smart today. :(
December 15, 2009 at 13:08
Ai man
Snap out of that killer mode!!!
December 15, 2009 at 13:11
use stop loss, think before entering, but sometime you make stupid losses.
December 15, 2009 at 10:51
For the rest of the day: A repeat of yesterday?
1927 GMT [Dow Jones] US Dollar Index likely “to chop around a familiar 75.50-76.80 range” ahead of FOMC rate decision later in week, says Bank of NZ strategist Mike Jones. US Dollar Index last 76.34 early in NZ. Says recent moves in Fed market pricing suggests more upbeat statement will be needed from Fed for USD to hold recent gains. Adds U.S. housing starts, building permits, industrial production, Philadelphia Fed index will shed further light on U.S. outlook. Also, Australian 3Q GDP, UK retail sales, BOJ meeting worth watching for further direction.(RSH)
December 15, 2009 at 11:16
Good Morning Piphutters!!!!
December 15, 2009 at 11:17
Hi Mark
If the following is due to the upgrade of the server then I’m sorry
Candlestick Alerts
M30 Doji 9:30 not picked up;
Bullish hammer 10:00 not picked up;
Following bear hammer picked up;
H1 Bullish hammer 10:00 not picked up;
December 15, 2009 at 16:21
Hendrik, server is working fine those candles just fall outside the bounds of an “ideal” signal. I wouldn’t say I keep the standards tight but definitely “snug” for candle detection.
On the m30 doji 9:30 – body is too big relative to the bottom wick. 10:00 hammer the body is too big relative tot he bottom wick. H1 hammer 10:00 this one was close but the body was just barely too big relative to the bottom wick.
If I loosen the standards we’d get a LOT of false signals.
December 15, 2009 at 16:26
I don’t want to waste your time. Must I keep watching?
December 15, 2009 at 16:30
haha I think that you watching is great!
December 15, 2009 at 16:38
I like to help where I can — you do so much for us. So this bit is nothing — it’s a pleasure::::)))
December 15, 2009 at 12:11
uh? u guys are long?
December 15, 2009 at 12:38
Got out of it as soon as I coooould
December 15, 2009 at 12:46
Ed it tested the 4523 low on 2 occasions – we’ll wait for a break
December 15, 2009 at 12:57
I don’t think the support will break, its pushed too long time into the corner. waiting still for the rebound.
Sometimes opposite stategies makes more money.
December 15, 2009 at 13:08
Hi Hendrik..
Are you suggesting we go short on break of 4523 support?
December 15, 2009 at 13:19
Syed
I agree with Tom. BUT We have lots of news still to come.. the next significant support is 4480. In the light of the news I posted over the past few days the possibility is strong that it might be tested.
So keep your eyes peeled for the signals. Yes it can go up and yes it can yield a few good pips but for sure we are going down
December 15, 2009 at 13:23
I more angry with myself for getting right back in after my SL got hit on the long. Now my angst is my SL on my short entry will get wiped when the news hits and the price starts to whip saw. Hopefully I can recover later with when the market calms down then hopefully make a better entry decision.
December 15, 2009 at 13:31
We’ve all done that:(
Are you short? Then I will not worry even if have to increase the SL — but it depends on your pip value & margin
December 15, 2009 at 13:53
Yes, I am short at 4524 with my SL at 4568. Don’t think I will move it. Just let it get wiped if the prices rises then try to make better entry decision later. In the long run, its all about risk/reward. I think I have that down pretty good. Just looks like my reward won’t be forth coming today. ;)
December 15, 2009 at 14:44
Yes Ed it seems that the SL will be wiped out so rather minimise the loss and look for the candle signal
December 15, 2009 at 16:47
Ed I sincerely hope that you adjusted your SL…. Man if you did not do it …. I will not kick your backside … you can do it yourself!!!
December 15, 2009 at 13:26
waiting a good news to come… :)
December 15, 2009 at 13:38
Keeping my fingers crossed…lol
December 15, 2009 at 13:39
it seems they already exhausted…come on bear…
December 15, 2009 at 13:49
That “Empire State Manufacturing Index” number was low. Maybe its cousing some disorientation(in lack of a batter word)
December 15, 2009 at 13:51
Does anyone happen to be watching USD/CAD?…some serious stuff goin on there.
December 15, 2009 at 14:02
ok, not so good news. i guess thats the end of the bears for today maybe. Hope not though
December 15, 2009 at 14:04
Closing everything, been a good day so far
December 15, 2009 at 14:05
are u going for long just now?
December 15, 2009 at 14:12
Nope, i was short on gold and audusd. And now i have no idea whats gonna happen so im staying out for a bit and watch what happens.
December 15, 2009 at 14:59
Hi everybody, site looks great, im watching your signal last few weeks and i have more than 85% positive closed position… yesterday i was open at 1.4675 after candlestick signal, and today close at 1.4532 -> +143 pip
now i’ll wait signal near first resistance 1.46 there is alseo fib. retracement 61.8 and 50 MA on H1
December 15, 2009 at 15:06
I think that today’s supp now rest of 4585 will be tested and I will look for another short in that region
December 15, 2009 at 15:39
I’m with you Hendrik :) I hope this is true. Good morning BTW:)
December 15, 2009 at 15:47
“Ja more vir jou ook” ( Good morning to you too)
I’m going to have a “braai” (Bar-b-que) and needless to say a cold one
December 15, 2009 at 15:53
I’m staying away from the cold ones for today, after the other night I got sick, now sitting around with my box of Kleenex. :)
December 15, 2009 at 16:08
I hope this is true.
______________________________________________________________
Matt
I’m not the President I only vote for him.
December 15, 2009 at 16:11
Me to, Me to, and he is a good one. That set up is one I’m watching as well, I would like to hear what Mark says about it as well.
December 15, 2009 at 16:14
1.4585 and 1.4620 are the nearest resistance levels, yes.
How is everyone today? I saw that price was nowhere near any of my pairs so got some errand-running done already today.
December 15, 2009 at 17:08
“Ed I sincerely hope that you adjusted your SL…. Man if you did not do it …. I will not kick your backside … you can do it yourself!!!”
ha ha….actually moved it down. Hopefully I can break even today! :D
December 15, 2009 at 16:18
Doing good, hey Mark since your a magic man at forex what can you do for my cold ( and broken heart from the Cardinal game last night ) LOL :) Hope you are having a wonderful day.
December 15, 2009 at 16:30
Cold is easy. Vitamin C, dayquil and some rest. The Cardinals on the other hand… that was just a horrible game for them!
December 15, 2009 at 16:38
Yea tell me about it.
December 15, 2009 at 17:01
Baseball?
December 15, 2009 at 17:04
american football
December 15, 2009 at 16:29
price just touched 4523…..short???
December 15, 2009 at 16:48
Next major daily support at 1.4480
December 15, 2009 at 16:52
Thanks for the update…
December 15, 2009 at 18:55
Mark, why 1.4480?
December 15, 2009 at 18:58
That served as support on Oct 1 (back out to the daily chart)
December 15, 2009 at 19:03
Thanks, mine says Oct 2nd
December 15, 2009 at 17:07
For anyone that might be interested, Im thinking of shorting crude. Its in a several days old down channel and have been around resistance level for a while now.
December 15, 2009 at 17:09
The fact that crude is at resistance (I haven’t looked, just taking your word on it) and EURUSD has dropped a good ways from resistance is a good sign for your trade.
December 15, 2009 at 17:17
Thanks. It sort of bounced on it already, but its still close. just waiting for good signal now.
December 15, 2009 at 17:31
k, im in doji on 2h and 30m chart, lets see how it goes. Dive dive dive!
December 15, 2009 at 17:54
Mark, maybe its called somethinng else?… It looks like a perfect doji, but the body is completely flat.
December 15, 2009 at 17:57
On the oil charts? If the body is completely flat it could be a gravestone doji. Does it look like the bottom image on this page:
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/forex-candlestick-guide/doji/
?
December 15, 2009 at 18:01
like a gravestone but body in the middle
December 15, 2009 at 18:11
flat body in the middle is still a doji. If the wicks are really long you could say it is a “long-legged doji” or a “rickshaw man doji”
December 15, 2009 at 18:14
k tahnx for clearing that up
December 15, 2009 at 17:58
dont you feel that bear is too much from now?
December 15, 2009 at 19:31
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=83&mode=view
December 15, 2009 at 22:08
Excellent site
December 15, 2009 at 22:18
David W M 3th wave normaly is longer i think
December 16, 2009 at 01:08
Forester, Yes, I think your right which means eur goes lower before higher, thanks for pointing that out.