December 21, 2009 07:38

Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bears on Thin Ice

By:

12-21-09

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On Friday’s signal I was bearish below 1.4420 and we had a double-confirmation signal (timeframe confluence) with a hanging  man on the 30m chart at 8:30a and a hanging man on the 1h chart at 9:00a – both right below support at 1.4400. Quite a few of you got in on that and it yielded good pips (110 pips if you used my targets to 1.4290).

Daily Outlook: Markets are now razor-thin now as vacation week officially sets in before the major holidays coming up before the end of the year. These thin-markets can cause major whip-saws and I recommend you tighten your wallets and trade very conservatively – if you trade at all. For my part the EUR/USD is still very bearish and 1.4420 is still the key resistance level. Below 1.4420 I remain short-term bearish on the pair. I will therefor be looking for candlestick signals to short on near this level.

Trading Idea: Looking for short signals to sell on around 1.4420, a key resistance. Short targets preferred at .1.4390, 1.4355 1.4320 and 1.4290. If 1.4430 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4500.

(click to enlarge)
eu122109selling

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65 Comments on "Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bears on Thin Ice"
  1. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 08:48
    jacques says:

    hi Mark this week will be quiet most on holidays looking at going short again thanx ur trades are great.

  2. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 08:54
    charles says:

    a site that i read sometime technical analysis:
    for today, they had Christmas tree in place of the chart and comment was:
    Strategy: Markets should move sideways and are not worth bothering with. Readers, go out and enjoy life!

    Merry Christmas every one and all the best for 2010! :)

  3. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 09:02
    brendan says:

    merry christmas to everyone. i have really enjoyed this site over the past few weeks as I have seen continued success in my own trading. thanks to everyone who contributes, especially to Mark for your excellent daily analysis. it’s great to have a global support team to help along the way.

    • Avatar of piphut
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 15:27
      piphut says:

      Glad to have you here Brendan :)

  4. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 10:00
    HENDRIK says:

    Hi Mark

    Will you keep on posting through the festive season?

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 11:55
      Tommy says:

      Merry christmas Everyone! I will keep trading anyways. Would like to also know if any posts coming from Mark!

      Thanks for this year and all the best on the next 2010!!

    • Avatar of piphut
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 15:27
      piphut says:

      Yes I will, except on the holidays themselves.

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:36
        Lisa says:

        Mark,

        Thanks for your dedication!!! I don’t know what specifically drives you to dedicate your time but whatever it is may you continue to be highly blessed.

        Happy Holidays!!!!

  5. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 12:22
    Tommy says:

    Hi Hendrik!

    Have you or anyone allready made entrys for this day!

    Until waiting, I am long from 1.4310 . target just under 1.44 !
    I red a Fibo queens books last weekend. And now may be too eager to try new tecnicals.

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 12:44
      HENDRIK says:

      Ola Tommy

      No not at all, I’m working in my little vineyard to protect the grapes from the birds. The #@!%$^ sods are eating my harvest!! Next they tackle the figs and then the guavas… so it’s a constant war.

      I wish I could took the long — it’s seems like a nice scalp. So I’m looking for a short. H1 a fat shooting star is developing … still 15 minutes to go

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 12:56
        Tommy says:

        You are living my dream, love the country side only my wife is more the city bird, so still living in the cities. Fresh guavas , own wine. oh man. By the have to go christmas shopping…:(

        I don’t actually think the price is going so high today, not close to 1.44 . so scalping when I am back if have any energy left.

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:45
        Lisa says:

        Hendrik,

        I tasted these guavas for the 1st time about a couple of years ago in Hawaii and I really enjoyed. Now, I just need to find some in Mississippi.

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 18:26
        alvin says:

        congratulations sir, b/w the grapes, guana plants and bats amazing you have time and presence to catch many of those turnarounds in multiple contracts!

        plese keep us up to date on your trades!

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 12:54
      Bernadette (South Africa) says:

      Hi Tommy

      Do you do a lot of reading on trading technics?

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:56
        Tommy says:

        Yeah I read and write a lot. about 300 book regarding trading.

        And I am also collecting date for my own book:)

  6. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 12:48
    Carlos says:

    Morning Everybody

  7. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 12:50
    Tommy says:

    I think there is a hanging man forming, going short all ready

  8. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 12:58
    Carlos says:

    i prefer to wait till 1.4400

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 13:07
      O’toba (London) says:

      .4370 is proving to be a good resistance,I’ll like to wait for 1.4400…it myt not hit it

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:47
        Lisa says:

        O’toba,

        What does the myt mean?

        • Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 16:04
          O’toba (London) says:

          we were hoping it was hoping to get to .4400 resistance.

  9. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 13:00
    Zach says:

    Doji on 30 minute

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 13:04
      O’toba (London) says:

      I can see as well,usin PP,there is resistance @ .4370(R2),R3 is at .4400.am tempted to go short now..waiting to see if R2 will stand.

  10. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 13:07
    HENDRIK says:

    It looks like false signals — AT THIS POINT IN TIME. I’ve got a sell stop at 55 and will push it up if need be.

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 13:13
      O’toba (London) says:

      U myt be lucky,that cud be our solid resistance…am waiting to see if the resistance holds at .4370

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 13:20
      Danny Tan ( Malaysia ) says:

      Hi Hendrik, what do u mean by 55? Are you in long or short?

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 13:42
        HENDRIK says:

        Hi Danny
        at 4355 short after the doji and the shooting star. It was an aniticipation otherwise I would have increased the sell stop if it had gone up … at one stage I really thought it was a false signal.

        • Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 13:44
          Danny Tan ( Malaysia ) says:

          I see. I’m in too, at 4354. You got in before the candle closed huh :)

  11. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 13:19
    Danny Tan ( Malaysia ) says:

    Doji and shooting star forming at M30..

  12. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 14:16
    Carlos says:

    so r we still waiting for the 1.4400 area ?

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 14:21
      O’toba (London) says:

      am short already,.4370 is proving to be a strong resistance.lets watch closely

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 14:57
        Danny Tan ( Malaysia ) says:

        Heya Otoba, where are placing your TP?

        • Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 15:27
          O’toba (London) says:

          am using pivot point today…S1 is .4280,S2 at .4250 and S3 at.4200.Like mark said…we must be watchful

          • #
            Comment left on:
            December 21, 2009 at 15:42
            Danny Tan says:

            Ah my stop loss is hit :) 30pip profit. Well..good enough festive present I guess. Good night Mark, good night everyone.

  13. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 14:22
    Carlos says:

    Thanks o’toba

  14. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 14:42
    Kevin says:

    Hey, I’ve read about support and resistance in Mark’s Learn Forex, but I still dont quite get how to figure out the minor/major resistances and supports. Do you guys have any tips on how to identify them?

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 14:54
      HENDRIK says:

      Hi Kevin
      Study the charts in “Learn Forex #2″. If you have further ?’s we’ll try and answer, but be more specific. Maybe turnarounds will help that’s where someone say enough is enough … I want to sell or buy. Thats Rallies and dips.

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 14:56
      Danny Tan ( Malaysia ) says:

      Hi Kevin, I asked the same question before. Mark uses Fibonacci. Do take a while to read Mark’s writes under the “Learn Forex” tab on top. They are good :)

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:08
        Kevin says:

        I have already read the “Learn Forex” tab. While I do know what they are and such, the problem is identifying them. Is every turning point a support/resistance?

        Also, do you guys still think EUR/USD will go up to 1.4400?

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 15:12
      HENDRIK says:

      Kevin
      See the M30 chart from 02:00 to 13:00. Tell us where do you see the resistance and supports and why. If your right you are on your way, if not we’ll help:)

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:16
        Kevin says:

        I would say support is around 1.4280 and resistance is around 1.4355

        • Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 15:19
          HENDRIK says:

          One support and one resistance is correct what about the other ones?

          • #
            Comment left on:
            December 22, 2009 at 01:53
            Kevin says:

            Hey HENDRIK, if looking on M30 from 2:00 to 13:00, that is all I see. Can you point to me the others?

        • Avatar of piphut
          Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 15:24
          piphut says:

          Kevin, it might even be best if you plotted support/resistance on a chart and uploaded to the forum at:

          http://piphut.com/forum/

          That way we could see all the support/resistance you are plotting.

  15. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 15:17
    HENDRIK says:

    Mark’s 3rd target is about to be taken. How about some money management?

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 15:33
      O’toba (London) says:

      I included the bolliger bands on my chart…and if u look at it closely…we ve been profiting from the breakout…the price is still contained in the band and yet to breakout.it myt still fall…keeping my fingers crossed.

  16. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 15:19
    Mirza (Bosnia) says:

    hi everybody, im short from .4350

    what do you think can we see this week EU in area close to 200 SMA on daily chart?

  17. Avatar of piphut
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 15:30
    piphut says:

    Shooting star and doji proved to be profitable on the 30m (in conjunction with a 1h doji) for bearish reversal signals.

    http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/

    A little higher up and I would’ve been in on those.

    • Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 15:39
      Lisa says:

      Mark,

      The 30 min candlestick alert @ 13:30 gave a bearish alert for hanging man – bearish. Do you think this was a good signal since the upper wick seemed a little long for a hanging man?

      • Avatar of piphut
        Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 15:53
        piphut says:

        The upper wick was OK the bigger issue with that candle was it’s location: it wasn’t at the top of the uptrend and therefore invalid.

        BUT at that point it is really icing on the cake after the 12:30 doji and the 13:00 shooting star, so it was nearly a triple-confirmed signal.

        I would’ve entered but since the price never got high enough my alerts never woke me up :)

        • Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 15:57
          Lisa says:

          If you were woke (like I was) and even though it didn’t reach the 1.4400, would you have entered on that triple confirmation?

          • Avatar of piphut
            #
            Comment left on:
            December 21, 2009 at 16:06
            piphut says:

            Absolutely I would have after the second shooting star at 13:00 – the hanging man at 13:30 would have just been a nice bonus as I would have already been in the trade.

            I would have used a tight stop just above the top of the shooting star wick (1.4380 – 25 pips risk) and gone for a 2:1 MM with 50 pips – but I would have just covered on that gravestone doji at 15:30 for about 40 pips profit.

            Trading in hindsight is so easy! ;)

  18. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 15:42
    Mattd365 says:

    Goods morning every one, Hope you all had a wonderful weekend. It feels almost like Christmas time, it’s weird, last year it felt the same way at this time, lol:) Looks like I missed out on that shooting star.

    • Avatar of piphut
      Reply
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      Comment left on:
      December 21, 2009 at 15:55
      piphut says:

      Yeah it’s a bit slow today and I expect it might be a little slow until after the holiday’s settle down.

      • Reply
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        Comment left on:
        December 21, 2009 at 16:05
        Mattd365 says:

        Good morning Mark, Yeah, I figure this week might be slow. Do you have any plans for Christmas. You know, like the Bahama’s, Fiji, Hawaii, Cayman Islands, mother in-laws house. lol:)

        • Avatar of piphut
          Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 16:06
          piphut says:

          Mother-in-laws house :).

          • #
            Comment left on:
            December 21, 2009 at 16:10
            Mattd365 says:

            Me to :)

        • Reply
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          Comment left on:
          December 21, 2009 at 18:56
          Carlos says:

          Merry Christmas man and have a nice evening at your mother in law house

          • #
            Comment left on:
            December 21, 2009 at 19:20
            Mattd365 says:

            You to Carlos,I hope you have a great Christmas week and day. BTW, I really do get along with my Mother-in-law but it took bit though:)

  19. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 15:54
    Lisa says:

    I passed on the shooting star entry because I was waiting to enter a little bit higher at 1.4400. Good or bad I don’t know but I do live to trade another day.

  20. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 16:04
    Tommy says:

    yeah! 40 pips from the eyes closed short! Now scalping for a long??

  21. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 16:06
    Tommy says:

    30 M at 16.00 GMT doji bullish ??

  22. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 18:40
    Matt says:

    I appreciate the solid signals Mark, you’ve been a blessing to everybody….keep up the great work! Thank you!

  23. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 18:54
    Carlos says:

    Thanks Mark really for your signals god bless everybody and hope to have a great Christmas evening and new year

  24. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    December 21, 2009 at 19:03
    Tommy says:

    My friend a old trader send me his tecnicals

    key word recooperation above 1.426 long with targets 1.4425 , 1.4500 and extensions

    alternative under 1.426 go for short, targets 1.4175 and 1.408

    Posted this just to see how things develop.

    Again Merry Christmas!!

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