1-27-2010
Daily Outlook: 6:27a GMT – Pair did little to nothing for much of the day yesterday before making a second break under 1.4020 and triggering my secondary trade (short @ 1.4020) which netted some nice pips only a couple hours later. Nothing in the technical outlook of the pair has changed: weekly charts still show bearish, daily charts show bearish (though if current daily closed we would have a shooting star) after making several flag patterns and making bearish breakouts on all supports.
Trading Idea: With this bearish trend in mind I will continue to look for selling opportunities into this bearish trend. Easier to swim with the currents than against them :). I will initially look for more shorting opportunities in the 1.4070-1.4100 zone (1.4070 is an area of recent trend resistance and 1.4100 has been resistance for a couple days now) with targets at 1.4035, 1.4000 and 1.3960.
By the way, in these strong trends the past few days I have been posting new resistance levels to look for selling opportunities in the comments/forum section so keep your eyes open!
(click to enlarge)
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January 28, 2010 at 08:28
I think NZD/USD is also a good short @ 0.715 zone.
January 28, 2010 at 10:47
What are your profit levels ?
January 28, 2010 at 08:32
good morning all…
Hi Mark,
Have you had a look on my NZD trade in the journal?
do you think the channel is a right one?
January 28, 2010 at 08:35
Looks good to me. Key will be if that support can hold again
January 28, 2010 at 12:36
Charles,
Was this the NZD/USD?
January 28, 2010 at 13:06
Hi Lisa,
no, i bought NZDJPY.
you can see the chart in my journal and would appreciate your view.
January 28, 2010 at 08:42
thanks, it was a nice surprise when i waked up today…
this site is really so friendly…
January 28, 2010 at 09:00
Hi all. the last few days euro has missed my entry point. We hope we can get an entry tonight near 14080. I’m long nzd/usd from 7025 sl 6975 tp 7125 . It looks to agree with ur plans priya. Thank hope we all have good pips tonite
January 28, 2010 at 12:44
Jacques,
I am with you there. I have missed a couple good entries as well by a “hair”. I just have to make adjustments. Good luck to you.
January 28, 2010 at 13:12
Bonjour Jacques.
will you close that LONG NZDUSD position when it reaches .7125 and enter a SHORT?
Roger
January 28, 2010 at 09:41
Euro retrace (38,2 % Fibo) meaning strong down trend
Down trend expansion reach 1.4032 (61,8%Fibo) after 2nd down move.
From 1.3687 (78,6%Fibo) start looking for reversal (Candlestick, Channel brake e.t.c)
Then buy the retracement up to (38,2% Fibo) , 33% for secure
That’s how banks working
January 28, 2010 at 10:10
Where are you calculating your fib levels ? From what high/low ?
January 28, 2010 at 12:35
Sakis,
From what date to what date is you high/lo swings?
January 28, 2010 at 09:55
Hi Mark,
Can you explain a bit more about the way you played the secondary trade yesterday? I’m assuming that after the first break under 1.4020, you waited for the price to come back up and then set a sell stop at 1.4020 to let it trigger? Where did you hide your stop-loss? Thanks.
January 28, 2010 at 11:49
yesterday he was talking about a secondary trade if 1.4100 or 1.4140 didnt hit which is 1.4020 to sell on rallies i believe that what he meants have a nice day
January 28, 2010 at 15:08
You got it right. I waited for a candlestick and got a gravestone doji at 10:00a GMT that I shorted at 1.4058. Stop-loss was 1.4108, behind resistance
January 28, 2010 at 15:20
Mark,
Was this on the 30 min or 1 hr chart?
January 28, 2010 at 10:42
I am selling EUR since this afternoon. I agree it looks bearish. i hope it falls faster.
where as i am buy cad,
(I am new to forex, but it has been very very interesting. )
January 28, 2010 at 12:18
daily chart, little wedge inside a huge wedge, anyone looking up? I think the daily close of todays candle might give some clues.
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=197&mode=view
January 28, 2010 at 12:50
David,
Are you then saying that the EUR/USD is heading up or dn from this analysis?
January 28, 2010 at 12:38
Hello Everyone,
The rate is not gaining much momentum for the whole session. Today will be having 2 events :-
i. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
ii. Unemployment Claims
Wondering will this help to push the Eur down further as suggest by Mark 1.4035, 1.4000 and 1.3960.
January 28, 2010 at 12:52
I will be looking to trade these 2 news tonight.
Cheers!
January 28, 2010 at 12:59
i personally believe there is opportunity in carry trade at this level for long term trade, in particular against chf.
the RNBZ statement hint on rate raising in quarter 2…
January 28, 2010 at 13:38
Not much movements due to news.
Trading on news – Not entered.
January 28, 2010 at 13:52
I would like everyone’s view on how they handle the issue described below if you have time.
This is where I get very confused. Once it has dropped or risen for so many pips, how do you know to stay with the sell (in this trend we have today) or get in on buy while it’s down low and you can ride it up to get a good reward ratio?
January 28, 2010 at 15:10
I back out to a larger timeframe and have a look. If it is still technically sound on at least the daily or the trend direction is clear the smaller timeframe charts can always keep dropping/rising
January 28, 2010 at 15:11
That doji at 08:00a (just below our first resistance at 1.4070) provided a nice 100 pip drop so far for anyone watching.
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
January 28, 2010 at 15:31
Mark,
Is this on the 30 min or 1 hr chart?
January 28, 2010 at 15:35
I was looking at 1h
January 28, 2010 at 15:44
Mark,
I see this and also it gave a double signal on the 30 min chart of a shoot star. I didn’t get in a sell because I was waiting for it to get a little higher at the 1.4070 to 1.4100 range. I was watching it but just missed it.
January 28, 2010 at 15:52
Thing is when it is that close to 2 layers of resistance and you’ve got a double sell signal in a strong downtrend – it doesn’t get much better than that! You can tuck that stop-loss behind even that second layer of resistance and still get a good risk/reward
January 28, 2010 at 15:11
The Eur/USD broke the 1.3960 to 1.3951. Is there any update Mark on the next short?
January 28, 2010 at 15:14
If 1.3930 is broken it and 1.4980 will be the closest resistance levels
January 28, 2010 at 15:33
Mark,
Are you sure this is suppose to be 1.4980?
January 28, 2010 at 15:33
Thanks Mark, do you mean 1.3980? It seems like the rate is hanging around 1.3960.
January 28, 2010 at 15:35
1.3980 thanks
January 28, 2010 at 17:58
Mark, Thank you for the updates, They help me reinforce my confidence in my own chart analysis. You are the man….:)
January 28, 2010 at 15:35
Mark,
If that hammer forms well over the next half hour will you go long on it ?
January 28, 2010 at 15:39
No, I don’t trade against the trend
January 28, 2010 at 15:37
Matthew,
Where are you today?
January 28, 2010 at 15:40
I’m here, I am waiting for a little bounce, So I can get in. I missed the one from 400 level. Coffee was calling my name, and I just missed it
January 28, 2010 at 15:50
BTW, Good morning Lisa, hope you are having a wonderful day.
January 28, 2010 at 15:41
I am seeing that hammer forming on the hourly so maybe we can bounce off a higher price. I am hoping for a retest of 930????
January 28, 2010 at 15:51
Matthew,
Are you talking about possibly getting a long at the 1.3930 level? or are you saying that you want it to bounce off the 1.3930 and go up to 1.3980 and then get in on a short?
January 28, 2010 at 16:04
no I don’t want to go against the trend, I am hoping that it gets to 3980-4000 area, give me a cool candle and then head back down to 3930 area. I am going to be watching close, for a confirmation candle or a strong resistance.
January 28, 2010 at 15:44
I have a trend line on the 30 min time frame from the 428 to the 401, if the price continue up it might bounce off of it. right around the 380 area that Mark said was resistance.
January 28, 2010 at 15:52
I made 70 pips from GBP/USD. I was short @ 1.6220. I wish I posted a comment here. I was little doubtful about this one.
However, I am looking to short again on EUR/USD @ 1.4020 zone, GBP/USD @ 1.62, NZD/USD @ 0.713, AUD/USD @ 0.903, and long on USD/CHF @ 1.045, USD/CAD @ 1.055 for at least 50 pips each profit. I don’t place trade on all of them together though!!!
January 28, 2010 at 15:56
Wow, Priya that’s awesome, I saw it heading up to resistance but did not expect that big of a move. I don’t trade the pound very offten, very good job:)
January 28, 2010 at 15:59
Thanks Mathew, But I think I closed it very early. Still not bad isn’t it? Looking for short again?
January 28, 2010 at 16:05
Hey priya, I got that same exact trade, I actually set it just before leaving for work and had my pips in the bank when I got here.
January 28, 2010 at 16:08
BRAVO.
January 28, 2010 at 16:33
Mark,
In your comment above to me, what do you mean by 2 layers of resistance?
January 28, 2010 at 17:06
1.4070 and 1.4100
January 28, 2010 at 16:36
hey everybody, so what is the play today i guess 1.4070 is far
January 28, 2010 at 16:38
Hello Carlos, I’m gonna play with my legos and Tonka trucks.. Oh and the resistance area that Mark said.LOL:)
January 28, 2010 at 16:39
no more bugs bunny for you hehehhe
January 28, 2010 at 16:41
I’m gonna love him and squeeze him and call him George.
January 28, 2010 at 16:46
our entry is almost closeeeeeeeeeeeee hehehhe hope it hits
January 28, 2010 at 16:48
sold at 80
January 28, 2010 at 18:30
I assume that was 1.3980?
January 28, 2010 at 18:33
yah
January 28, 2010 at 18:34
anyways it was an easy 30 pip but i was away from my pc ):
January 28, 2010 at 20:26
Hey Carlos I hope you have a great night, this was fun we should do it again tomorrow as well:)
January 28, 2010 at 20:30
same here friend have a nice evening
January 28, 2010 at 19:35
Hi everyone
January 28, 2010 at 20:33
Hello Nnagozie,
I hope that you are having a great trading day.
January 28, 2010 at 23:01
Yes, I had a great day and yours? Not always on my PC these days.
January 29, 2010 at 03:41
Nmagozie,
My day was ok. I just hate I missed a great entry to a trade that I was looking at but that’s in the past. I hope you get to a point where you are able to be on your PC to trade with us more here in Pipland.
Have a great night/day!
January 28, 2010 at 20:16
Hi Mark,
In your comment above about 8.00am doji,i don’t see any doji’s on my charts at 8am. Is it my timezone?
January 28, 2010 at 20:19
what time zone are you using,, gmt?
January 28, 2010 at 20:31
Olayinka,
I am eastern time zone and my platform is GMT+2; therefore, when Mark reference 08:00 GMT on my platform that is the same candlestick for 10:00 since I am GMT+2
January 28, 2010 at 22:56
finland, italy or germany??
January 29, 2010 at 03:38
I am US – eastern time
January 28, 2010 at 21:17
how is your trading going?
January 28, 2010 at 20:23
Theres another one at 7pm GMT!
January 28, 2010 at 22:52
just sell and wait!! how easy much easier this cant get? look past 3-20 days …
January 29, 2010 at 03:43
Tommy,
That is a great way to look at it. However, when it (the pair movement) is taking place you can’t seem to sum it up that way.
January 29, 2010 at 04:12
Hindsight is always 20/20. It is funny to look back now and realize with a decent stop loss it would have worked lol:) I am running off to bed now, I’ll talk to ya all in the morning.
January 29, 2010 at 04:33
Hi Mark,
Would a previous support always become a new resistance zone if it past it by 50 pips for example then came back?
Yesterday, there was support at around 1.3960. Price went past it down to a low of 1.3915 then returned and seemed to hit a resistance of 1.3960.
January 29, 2010 at 06:21
Hi Chris, in general when support is broken it then becomes resistance. The stronger the support the stronger the resistance.
January 29, 2010 at 04:40
Hey Chris,
The price you are referencing is only 3 pips under the daily open price of 1.3963. That’s why it came back to it after dropping immediately after the new day’s candle was created. It was rechallenging the price.
January 29, 2010 at 06:09
Hi Brendan, thanks for your explanation.
January 29, 2010 at 07:11
Lisa,
Thanks and Gud morning here in PipLand. My timezone is GMT +1, Lagos Nigeria.
January 30, 2010 at 07:33
Did anyone say euro reaching 1.2870? i forgotten where i got the figure?