1-29-2010
5:49a GMT – Extremely strong bearish trend continued yesterday with the pair never rising much at all to offer an entry at main resistance, however the 8:00a GMT candle offered a bearish reversal doji just beneath our first layer of resistance and in this strong of a trend that is all the confirmation I need.
Daily Outlook: Going into the weekend I always play it a bit more conservative as I dislike having open trades over the days off, but I remain bearish on the pair as new lows were again made, the extremely bearish falling trend resistance held and the daily and weekly charts confirm the bearish nature of the pair.
Trading Idea: Primary trade will be shorts in the 1.4010-1.4030 resistance zone though I will consider any decent short signal below 1.4010 as well. Biggest threat to the trade today is probably traders taking some profit before the weekend. Targets from 1.4010 are 1.3970, 1.3940 and 1.3905.
(click to enlarge)
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January 29, 2010 at 08:01
Hey Mark,
What we are seeing right now, is it likely a retracement to
the 1.4010-1.4030 area?
January 29, 2010 at 08:17
Looks like a hanging man is forming on the 30min and hourly. Has a pretty long wick as well.
January 29, 2010 at 08:27
I think positive GDP from US pushing up everythig
January 29, 2010 at 08:54
Good morning everyone.
Hi Mark,
It seems like today the US will release the Advance GDP q/q @ 830GMT. Wondering will that may help to push the Eur down further?
January 29, 2010 at 09:05
good morning all…
January 29, 2010 at 09:14
I am taking Mark’s 1.4010 to short, it talk that sell orders are not far north from there.
and the charts support it.
January 29, 2010 at 09:33
Mark,
how are you?
i have not received my email alert but i notice that there is a new post! did you forget to press ‘send’ Lol.
January 29, 2010 at 16:21
Hi David, I did press ‘send’ but there was a technical delay this morning ;)
January 29, 2010 at 09:36
I agree with sallie, there is still berish everything
January 29, 2010 at 10:46
Fibonacci :- When calculating the retracement values for today, is the correct procedure to calculate from the high of the previous day, down to the close of the previous day, in order to get the retracement values for today, in a downtreand. The reverse for an uptrend ?
January 29, 2010 at 13:08
Paul,
I think that you can calculate the fibo’s during whatever period of time you want to. I think the important thing is to make sure it’ over a time period of a price movement you are interested in. Also, you are taking the fibo’s from the highest point of a high swing (reversal point) down to the lowest point of a low swing. This is just my opinion but I am no pro.
January 30, 2010 at 11:48
Calculate from the falling edge .
To find the turn point need little training.
everythink is retracing 33% min
January 30, 2010 at 14:42
correction: i mention falling adge to 33% this is rong
the correct is falling adge to reversal point
and then mesure fibo 33,-38.2% for the correction
January 30, 2010 at 14:18
Paul
there are 2 ways calculate fibo day trade and a longer term
Day trade mesure from tha falling edge to 33%,numbers are count there are never rong .
Even thow pattern to be 90% valid it must have harmony with numbers fx H&S LS to Head 1.618%(start from LS)
Head to RS 0.618% (start from head)the pattern is 90%
valid, if is not(these retracements) just wait for neck line.
The only think you can trust in your trading is Fibo numbers, patterns, and idicators is just for duble check
Personaly my best idicator is my stomach!
January 29, 2010 at 12:09
Paul I have to learn Fibonacci better I will take this weekend and practice I’d love to know to do that. So I went to sleep should have taken the 4086 high short but took it at 4062 short. Now it will probably go higher BUT looks like it will go down from there anyway.
January 29, 2010 at 12:15
I didn’t get the signals today!!! Mark did u forget us today?
January 29, 2010 at 16:22
haha No didn’t forget you but there was a technical glitch!
January 29, 2010 at 12:27
short on eurjpy after the 4h doji… what do you guys think of it? looks good so far. anyone else in it?
January 29, 2010 at 13:37
well that didnt work out. sl got hit, maybe it was too tight
January 29, 2010 at 12:29
I am sleepy I meant 3986 and 3962
January 29, 2010 at 12:38
Changed my mind got out with a couple of pips think I will wait for a bit to go short Bank of Inter’l just bought at 3955
January 29, 2010 at 12:57
Okay Mark maybe you can help me out or somebod, if BIS buys at 1.3955 knowing there are sales at around 1.4020 say do they make more money then, looks like true sense of buying low and selling high huh or have I got it wrong???????
If I can read through the lines there may not be buyers at the 4020 or so range yet but they will buy at 3955 push the market up to that range and then sell does it make sense????
January 29, 2010 at 16:26
Sallie, I get that question all the time. In fact I think it is even in the FAQ. The fact is if the trend is down it is too risky of a trade for me to trade against the trend. I would rather take a short with a big stop loss than try and squeeze out a few long pips in a market like this.
January 29, 2010 at 12:57
oh! look at 25 08 2009 to 08 07 2009 and today. is that a slightly rising trend support? maybe thats why they long… i dunno, i stick with Marks plan either way.
January 29, 2010 at 13:06
Possible road map for next week, who knows! Could happen today.
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=198&mode=view
January 29, 2010 at 13:15
David,
Is this pattern like a descending wedge?
January 29, 2010 at 13:22
Lisa,
yup, that’s a pic of a baby bull. In the higher time frames this low is setting positive divergences, keep in mind the bearish scenario is falling out of the bottom of the wedge.
January 29, 2010 at 13:49
David,
If you have time could you show me a picture of the setting of the positive divergences? Also, when you say positive divergences are you meaning regular or hidden divergences?
January 29, 2010 at 13:48
Thank you David for pointing that out. I didn’t even see that. ;)
January 29, 2010 at 13:07
Thanks, think I will sleep for a bit see what is up about 8:00PST
January 29, 2010 at 13:17
Good Morning,
Everyone!!!
Hello Mark, did you have to shovel snow again this morning?
January 29, 2010 at 14:46
How are you today, Lisa
January 29, 2010 at 14:53
Matthew,
I am fine and I hope that you are doing well. I hope you got in on some pips for today. I haven’t been doing anything the last couple of days but is my own fault. I am taking it as a lesson learned.
January 29, 2010 at 15:04
I hear ya. I haven’t had much this week either. I get kinda bummed out sometimes because of the 1500 pip move and I am sitting here not making many of them. I also have to look at it as the market is always moving and it will again next week and the next and the next. You will be just fine, just keep it up.
January 29, 2010 at 16:27
Nope no snow, but it is a miserable 5 degrees F (-15 C)
January 29, 2010 at 13:26
Good morning every one.. :)
January 29, 2010 at 13:48
Morning Man what do u think of area 85-90 for shorting? give me your opinion!!
January 29, 2010 at 14:01
Hey good morning Carlos. I am going to be following Marks advise today. I am looking for a nice looking bearish candle between the 3980 and the 4030 levels, also looking at a trend line coming off of Jan 13th that the price might bounce off of,,, but being very cautious, it is Friday Profit sharing,
January 29, 2010 at 14:08
I meant profit taking not profit sharing. ( this means I need more coffee ) I don’t function well without it.
January 29, 2010 at 18:00
Hey, well thanks for replying i just came home, and i saw the posts i guess my entry was on 1.3995 and didnt hit i guess have a nice weekend all and wish you luck always thanks my Matt my friend and always Mark for this wonderful forum.
January 29, 2010 at 16:29
Are you talking 3995 or 3895?
January 29, 2010 at 13:48
Good’day everyone.
Tried trading the USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A). Shorted it for a brief moment until it reversed.
Ended up square.
Not too sure why it turned bullish all the sudden….
January 29, 2010 at 14:06
I went short @ 1.3980 when I saw the hanging man about 830am GMT so doing ok. Seems to be continuing down and will TP around 1.3930 to 1.3920 area.
January 29, 2010 at 14:08
That’s fantastic.
5pm our time and i was still at work during then…
Fret not, more time to come.
January 29, 2010 at 14:10
Hey Brandon, took 50 pips each off 2 trades yesterday. How have you got on?
January 29, 2010 at 14:13
Hey Chris,
Time is really not on my side now.
My work is really “taking off” as Chinese New Year is approaching so, very busy at work. Moreover, i have a trainee (understudy) to take over my duties when my last day at work comes on the 28th of February.
So unless signals comes after 7 or 8 pm GMT +8, if not i would be just sitting on the bench watching.
January 29, 2010 at 14:10
I am long USDJPY from 90,60, look like inverse H&s bottom.
January 29, 2010 at 14:20
Anyway boys and girls, have a good weekend. Friday night here so off to the pub. Left my TP on so will leave it be.
January 29, 2010 at 14:30
Have a great weekend Chris, drink a brew for me as well. See ya next week.:)
January 29, 2010 at 14:21
Hi Mark and the rest of the piphutters
I haven’t been active due to building operations. Never buy an old house it’s bottomless. I’m still under dust and busy with the cleaning. Hopefully I will be able to sleep in my own bed tomorrow night.
Matt, lisa, Carlos, Brandon, Don, Paul, Tommy & Badniguel hope I find you all in good spirit. It looks like I missed a lot of fun. I just couldn’t stay away today.
I went short and my targets are 1.3890/30
January 29, 2010 at 14:23
Take care Hendrik.
Hope to have you back real soon!
January 29, 2010 at 14:28
Good to hear from you Hendrik, I wish best of luck and hope you can sleep in your own bed as well. I thought you meant you where sick, I forgot out your house project. I am glad to hear you are ok. Just think about how nice it will be when it is all done:)
January 29, 2010 at 14:30
Hi Hendrik
Good to see you back. Like you I have mostly been on the sidelines this week because of other obligations. So trades have been very limited. Are you renovating the house yourself. If you are, I know exactly what it’s like. Great when it’s finished though. Not sure if I will be trading today, may let it settle after the GDP data.
January 29, 2010 at 14:38
Hendrik,
Good to hear from you and glad to know that you are alright! I hope everything works out with your house project. I know how that can be.
January 29, 2010 at 14:44
Welcome back mate – It’s been too quiet without your posts !!
January 29, 2010 at 16:31
Hendrik, glad to hear from you. I was about to put together a search party to head to SA.
January 29, 2010 at 14:34
dear Mark
when you say:
‘Biggest threat to the trade today is probably traders taking some profit before the weekend’
Do you mean the PROFIT TAKING will press the price of the pair down?
Is it not what we want when SHORTing a pair?
Or is your ‘Selling into the weekend’ meaning that you are dumping some LONG positions?
regards
Roger
January 29, 2010 at 14:47
I had the same question some days ago but I forgot to ask
January 29, 2010 at 14:47
Jolly,
I am not Mark and I am no pro but this is what I think he was saying.
He was saying that the trend is bearish and he is looking to get in on a sell on a rally. However since today is Friday and at the end of the week, those that had sells might be cashing in on their profits today which then would effectively cause there to be more buy positions which could in fact raise the position of the EUR/USD. That is why we have to be careful today when purchasing our sells.
I hope this helps some.
January 29, 2010 at 16:33
Jolly, Lisa got it right. Longer-term short traders (and longer-term generally hold larger position and therefore more weight in the markets) cover their shorts from the week it could drive the price up.
January 29, 2010 at 16:39
Mark,
Looking hindsight, it appears nobody wanted to get their short profits today since it keeps falling.
January 29, 2010 at 17:46
I dig it.
This ‘cover their shorts from the week it could drive the price up’ and this ‘those that had sells might be cashing in on their profits’ pretty well covered the span of my idiotic interrogation.
Thank you so much to both.
J.R.
Are there any other French speaking people here ?
January 29, 2010 at 14:50
I made it again. I set fiibs and resistance was on 23,6% and maide a sell order just after the first candelstick closed. I am now 40 pips in plus and i eill probably go out ofthe trade now. It is enougj for today. It’s friday time to relax now. These two weeks eas one of the best ever. Bye all. Have a nice weekend
January 29, 2010 at 14:58
another day of new lows:)
January 29, 2010 at 15:40
Hi all,
What are you thinking abt USD/JPY?Now 90.78, resistance at 90.80
Looks like perfect sell to me:)
January 29, 2010 at 16:43
perfect sell. Got in at 90.80
Target 90.1 and 89.6
January 29, 2010 at 17:43
I close mine at 90.35
Got scared :))
January 29, 2010 at 15:56
looks like Mark’s 1.3905 short is coming in play for 8:00 candle on 8 hour chart
January 29, 2010 at 16:03
I think market is overheated. There will be some swift upward correction in the days to come. I think its best to be on the side lines till its clear. There are lot of rumors about Euro, Asian banks support for EUR/USD around 1.39. Just a thought!!
January 29, 2010 at 16:13
took a chance in at 1.3895 may get a few pips indicating down for a bit
January 29, 2010 at 16:51
got the perfect storm, Sharon on CNBC with her comments about oil down gold down euro down traders jump in and continue to bring it down see how far……..
January 29, 2010 at 16:53
In my humble opinion Sallie those newscasters aren’t worth much as far as actionable analysis goes. They usually just react to whatever they see. If it goes down they tell you it’s going down. If it started to go up they will report its going up and everyone is taking profit.
January 29, 2010 at 16:51
FYI everyone there was a great double doji (just like yesterday) on the 1h chart that forecasted this big drop. Hope you saw it!
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
January 29, 2010 at 17:01
I have been comparing and by far the Pip Hut and your (Mark’s) trading ideas are the best most reliable I am really enjoying it, I will get in on the journal thing later I still have more practice, thanks again
January 29, 2010 at 20:44
Thanks Sallie, and welcome to PipHut! Glad to see you contributing
January 29, 2010 at 17:22
Has piphut become LLC? The Newsletter says so :-)
January 29, 2010 at 20:43
It’s been under my LLC for years, I just recently changed the name of that LLC to PipHut.com
January 29, 2010 at 17:44
Did you guys see Eur/CHF last few minutes. 100pips up!!! Short covering in Eur as expected. My call is not to be short at this time or cover your profits!! What do you say Mark?
January 29, 2010 at 20:43
I’m out for the weekend. Got my pips in :)
January 29, 2010 at 17:47
Can you please tell me r ther any chances of euro bouncing back to 1.4300 in near future ?
January 29, 2010 at 17:54
Wills,
I think there is lot of negative news on Euro. I would not be long on Euro at this time. The trend is definitely down on medium term. I think there will be corrective rally up before going down further probably till 1.4091 to 1.41. Thats my opinion. Let us see what Mark thinks.
January 29, 2010 at 18:59
Mark,
Just being curious.
1. What is the maximum number of standard lots would you recommend a person buy or sell at one time. I am just wandering if there is a maximum that a trader should buy/see from a broker to protect his money from the broker scamming, stealing money, etc. Or as long as you have the money, buy as many as you want?
2. Is there a recommendation as to how much money a trader should allow to sit in his account while he trades?
I am just curious. I have heard so many stories about people having money in their trading account just for the broker to steal it in one way or another.
January 29, 2010 at 20:47
Hi Lisa, stick with the largest, most reputable brokers and it won’t matter. If I was even a little bit nervous about my broker I wouldn’t keep any money with them
January 29, 2010 at 22:32
Mark,
Thanks for the information.
Just to be clear. I understand you to say that as long as you are with one of the largest, most reputable brokers then it doesn’t matter how my lots you buy at one time. So there is no such thing as buying too many lots at one time. Correct?
Thanks again and have a nice weekend.
January 29, 2010 at 19:17
Mark,
Just a quickie before we close down for the weekend if you please. When looking for trend reversal candlestick singals, what pip range in your opinion justifies a trend. For example, would you suggest that 50 pips could be a trend or does that come under the label of consolidation ? Just wondering when to act on these signals and when to stay well away.
Thanks
Paul
January 29, 2010 at 20:50
Hi Paul, no quick answer to this one as trend detection depends on what timeframe you are looking at, if you are a short-term or long-term trader, etc, but in general the best trends are the obvious ones and use higher timeframes (4h, daily, weekly). If you pull up a daily chart you should be able to easily detect the short, medium and long-term trends.
January 29, 2010 at 21:41
Thanks Mark,
That bit I’m comfortable with. It’s mini trends within larger trends that I’m not so sure about. Say for example, the daily/weekly trend is bearish. The pair shorts two hundred pips, then retraces (x) pips. If you then see a ‘valid’ bearish candlestick, at what point of retracement does that signal actually become valid ? i.e. does a doji after 50 pips qualify, or do you have to wait for a certain retracement before the signal qualifies as valid ?
Thanks again
Paul
January 29, 2010 at 19:39
I’m certainly not an expert but from what I have seen, for it to be a true reversal there has to be a sustained break of a significant resistance.
January 29, 2010 at 21:09
Have a good weekend everyone I made my pips this week. I’m out of here next week is going to be even better. Thanks Mark PipStar weekend ahead and I’m offffffff!!!!
January 30, 2010 at 11:43
for a day trading calculate the fibo from falling edge
(expantion,retracement)
January 30, 2010 at 13:27
Hi Mark
Is the next group of waves comming after correction?
2 impulses and 2 corrections are finised, 3rd impulse in its final stage for this group
I have a study done for you i dont know how to send it
February 1, 2010 at 04:35
Sakis, best would be if you can post it in the forums:
http://piphut.com/forum/
Let me know if you have problems