2-24-2010
4:24a GMT – A good day in PipLandia yesterday as all targets were hit for a good sum of pips.
We had a near picture-perfect setup as the pair just touched our falling trend support before dropping like a rock. In fact I listed three trade setups yesterday and no matter which one you might have gone with it produced positive pippage. On a side note it is setups like these that re-affirm my belief in technical analysis. There are many skeptics out there, and many with convincing arguments about the downfalls of TA, but when a pair just touches a level I’ve been watching for day/weeks and then reacts perfectly it warms my heart. As always, however, make sure to use good money management. A perfect setup can still go sour in the forex world and that is just part of the game.
Daily Outlook: We had a major bearish movement yesterday and it was clear the bears had more power behind their punch than the bulls did, however the pair failed to challenge the 1.3440 support. In fact it found support at 1.3500 and if you connect the lows from yesterday to the lows on Feb 19 we can see a potential rising trend support that combined with the falling trend resistance forms a nice triangle consolidation pattern. While this is just a potential scenario at this point it would not surprise me in the least to see the pair consolidate in this pattern for at least another day. Overall my analysis is still very bearish so I will continue to look for selling opps on rallies.
Trading Idea: There are two levels of resistance above our current price action I will look for shorting opportunities, depending on risk. First is 1.3580, former support (and now resistance). From this area I would look for a re-challenge of 1.3500. A higher probability trade would be in the vicinity of the falling trend resistance around 1.3650. From 1.3650 short targets are 1.3615, 1.3580 and 1.3550. A secondary setup is a sustained break of the lower rising trend support which I would look to produce a challenge of 1.3450.
(click to enlarge)
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February 24, 2010 at 15:03
That’s not good
February 24, 2010 at 15:03
Patience they say!!!!!!!
February 24, 2010 at 15:05
O yeh…
February 24, 2010 at 15:06
candle is going crrrrraaazzzyyy..! hahaha
February 24, 2010 at 15:11
It is going crazy like a rock guitar…..!!!!!!!!
February 24, 2010 at 15:13
Just like Guitar Hero in Expert mode.. LOL
February 24, 2010 at 15:18
anyone short?
February 24, 2010 at 15:20
yeah…it pays to get up earlier this time.
I just picked up 30 pips shorting from 1.3580.
Now waiting for the bigger and better retracement at 1.3650.
A little bit of bad US news regarding home sales. That should help EUR/USD to retrace upwards to our target around 1.3650. Then, same old bad Greece news towards the evening will swing us back down for our targets.
February 24, 2010 at 15:22
It’s freaking out..
February 24, 2010 at 15:31
30m bearish doji recorded but am staying clear.
February 24, 2010 at 15:34
I just hope the bad news from home sales will give the EUR/USD a push to our higher probability trade at 1.3650.
February 24, 2010 at 15:38
all i know is that i’m out and only in at the higher price ranges, on a clear signal
February 24, 2010 at 15:55
Hi,
in my opinion it is not bad home sales data pushing the dollar down, but Bernanke’s testimony is the key event here….if anything, bad home sales would push the dollar up om a standalone basis
February 24, 2010 at 15:38
I thought I would check the charts to see what happened, looks like Bernanke caused a little whipsaw action then we are right back to where we are supposed to be. I’m gonna look for the short at around 3650.
February 24, 2010 at 15:39
Well, I will not trade in the see saw ateast till Bernanke stops speaking. (Dissapointing house number but positive because bernanke might say something). Market is too volatile and stops will get hit both ways. We need to get a clear picture. My take ;)
February 24, 2010 at 15:48
he’s not done speaking? I assumed he was…thanks for the heads up.
February 24, 2010 at 15:39
Until this thing is done running around like my EX, I’m out
February 24, 2010 at 15:47
Anyone else looking to short eurgbp around 0.8820?
February 24, 2010 at 15:48
I agree with George, market is too volatile at the moment. Very clear picture is necessary.
February 24, 2010 at 15:49
Hmmmmm, it just hit my stop loss at 1.3625
February 24, 2010 at 15:51
Hope you are on proper money management?
February 24, 2010 at 15:50
It’s inching towards 1.3650.
February 24, 2010 at 15:51
anyone shorting at 1.3650
February 24, 2010 at 15:54
with properrrrrrrrrrr confirmation,, yes.
February 24, 2010 at 15:55
Yeah Yax,
Just waiting the whole day to short,and when I did, I lost, anyways it all part of the FX Market…..
February 24, 2010 at 15:57
I feel you Ado, am also in your shoes..forgot to take my patience pill today. O no!!
February 24, 2010 at 16:00
I know how you both feel I took mine today though. Sometimes that thing is hard to swallow… So is a negative account balance.. :)
February 24, 2010 at 16:01
Yeah john,
But I was trying to digest the patience pill the whole day, but i guess it was not big enough :)
February 24, 2010 at 16:08
Happes to the best it makes you a better trader if you take that feeling and eliminate it from your trading technique
February 24, 2010 at 16:14
Im lost now anyone know whats going on currently
February 24, 2010 at 16:16
It ran into the 200ema and got rejected.. I cheated a bit to see what was up:)
February 24, 2010 at 16:16
May have something to do with this….S&P: More Greece rating cut possible within month
February 24, 2010 at 16:17
Don,
Where you been man, it’s been a while …
February 24, 2010 at 16:17
and now it’s sitting on the 100 ema.. Sorry I cheated again.. I usually do not use those, but got curious:)
February 24, 2010 at 16:15
Is Bernanke finished speaking?
price is back to 1.3580 area…
February 24, 2010 at 16:17
guess not.. still seeing him @ streaming cnbc :) I think its almost finished
February 24, 2010 at 19:02
Euro came down inspite on markets being up becusse S&P warned down grade of greece. As usual market reacting strongly to get euro back.
February 24, 2010 at 16:18
Hi Mark,
I wonder if you could help me with a couple of questions? I’m always conscious of not overtrading but find it difficult to know how many trades is too many until it’s too late. With the pairs you watch can you give me an idea of how many trades you take on average each week? Also I struggle with where to place stops when there is no obvious s/r nearby and am reluctant to put my stop too far away. How far from your entry price do you normally put your stop on EU?
Thanks!
Mike
February 24, 2010 at 16:19
Paul Ive been around just quiet
February 24, 2010 at 16:24
Did you bother purchasing that Technical Trading book that Mark recommended to you ? If so, what’s your opinion ?
February 24, 2010 at 16:23
SMH (SHAKING MY HEAD) I do not feel like watching consolidation again lol but i think i will wait pateiently until 1.3650 urrrggggg!!!!
February 24, 2010 at 16:36
hi don,
when do u think we might see 1,3650 level?
February 24, 2010 at 17:53
Closest we’ve got so far is 1.3626. We are 1.3550 territory again now.
I’ve already closed out some profits from the 1.3580 shorting idea. Think of it…I could have done it twice for today !!?!?
1.3650 – who knows? Wish we had some more steam to 1.3650, instead of stalling at 1.3626.
But that’s alright…this is the name of the game. We must be disciplined on only entering at the best educated analysis. No-show means we must sit-out.
Don’t forget yesterday – most of you got rewarded for waiting for the ideal entry point.
February 24, 2010 at 16:32
anyone have the slightest Idea where this is going. Looks tricky?
February 24, 2010 at 17:03
shooting star on 30m
February 24, 2010 at 16:58
I closed 3 open positions on small profits each totalling to 105 pips. Not bad though.
I will look to re-enter EUR/USD on a higher price.
February 24, 2010 at 17:33
Ben Bernanke testifies today before Congress. It won’t be very good. Some say that that is why the dollar is acting funny. Others say that everybody already knows what Bernanke is going to say so it shouldn’t hurt the dollar very much.
February 24, 2010 at 17:52
until now still question & answer session between congress & Bernanke. from my view, we wont be seeing 1.3650. either slowly move towards 1.3500 / rising support line.. or re-consolidate back to where we start from.
I’m done for today.. zzzz…sleepy..zzzz
February 24, 2010 at 19:35
If 1.3525 is broken is the next support .3500 or lower?
February 24, 2010 at 19:48
eheh more +66 pips for today, and I’m done
see ya people tomorrow, and who’s in trade, good luck =)
February 24, 2010 at 23:16
Just one simple THANKS! :)
February 25, 2010 at 00:59
morning all..
FYI the euro is now testing the lower rising support,looks like its broken
February 25, 2010 at 01:09
and now testing 1.3500
February 25, 2010 at 01:29
just finished 25 pips for breakfast… yumm…
February 25, 2010 at 04:37
I missed out on the main trade because I was in bed, but got the break of the rising trend support & made 50 pips.