2-26-10
5:08a GMT – Another week down, another Friday ahead of us.
Yesterday was pretty volatile at times, moving 120+ pips in 2 hours alone. I took two trades – the first one off of the initial challenge of the (former) rising trend support, now resistance on the 15:00 gmt candle. This quickly yielded 50 pips. The initial challenge of that type of SR is always the most fruitful in my experience. My second trade is actually still open – a short on the 4:00a GMT shooting star candle (see candlestick alerts) in the resistance zone of 1.3550-1.3580 from my primary trade signal yesterday. That trade has not moved much since its open.
Daily Outlook: Once again it is a Friday and, of course, we have some mixed signals (anyone see a pattern here?). I’ve gotten a few questions about “are we in a double bottom situation” and the answer is – it is too early to tell. To satisfy me we would need a sustained break above 1.3800 before I would take a double bottom scenario seriously. Remember, confirmation on the charts is necessary to risk equity on – otherwise its nothing more than a coin flip. Our strong falling trend resistance is still holding the pair down and as long as that holds I am bearish in the short term.
Trading Idea: It is Friday and signals are mixed so I will be very conservative with my trade plan for the day. For those looking to re-enter the market the first place I will look is on the falling trend resistance, currently at 1.3620, with short targets at 1.3585, 1.3550 and 1.3520. It would have to be a very good signal however for me to double on my current short as I don’t want to go into the weekend heavy, so a more conservative (and less likely to be tripped) entry points would be resistance at 1.3650 and 1.3700.
(click to enlarge)
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February 26, 2010 at 18:28
hmm, maybe we get some more pips from 1.37 as well, would be cool. But i think im done for tonight, got my pips need a cold one and a movie now. Cheers everyone, good luck!
February 26, 2010 at 18:54
whether this will continue up?
February 26, 2010 at 18:57
Hi there, just looking at the charts after work and i see that Marks suggestionof entry at 1.3620 was hit this morning, and then fell to 1.3550 after that. If i had entered a sell order at this time i would have looked to put a stop at 1.3585 locking in 35 pips and then followed this down to .3550 and put a stop there. and tracked down again to the next level and closed out a .3520 (if it came up ahich it didn) what im not sure of is how to set my stop loss initially? as in total I am looking to get 100 pips then do i set my initial stop loss from .3620 at +33 (which is 3/1 i think?) pips looking to get the 100 pips and locking in points via stops on the way down, or do i set my stop for the first 35 pips i am looking for (as a stop to this would be quite small +12 and risk closing me out before there has been a chance to find direction)
Thanks Graham
February 26, 2010 at 18:58
Alright well I’m out. Thank you again Mark for your wisdom and time… Ya all take it easy.. Have a great weekend..:)
February 26, 2010 at 19:54
In fact I think am out for good for a while, I would like to thank you Mark for helping me learn, you have had allot of patients with me in all the stupid questions I have asked over the last couple of months.. You have helped me out greatly.. Lisa and the rest of you, I wish you all the best and thank you for keeping me company for the last couple of months.. I has been fun.. I will poke in time to time and see how you are doing… Good bye for now:)
February 26, 2010 at 19:58
Out for good? What happened?
February 26, 2010 at 20:09
I got called back to work today… Some big building project..
February 26, 2010 at 20:12
I will still trade and check your trade ideas but not be able to hang out like I have been..
February 26, 2010 at 20:20
Matthew,
Oh, No!!! I will certainly miss hanging out with you on a regular basis because you are so much fun. However, if you got to go you’ve got to go but please do keep checking in with us. Again, I will certainly miss you.
February 26, 2010 at 20:28
It has been fun, I will miss you as well. I’ll most defiantly check in.. I just have to change some things around a little.. I will only be able to post my knuckle head jokes every now and then… I am so glad they called me,, not collecting a steady $ check $ stinks.. We’ll see how long this project lasts..??
February 26, 2010 at 20:38
Well, I know what you mean when you are not getting a steady income. The good thing about this situation is that you have learned another skill that has great potential to turning into a full-time career. Of course, you have to have the money first to invest and you must know what you are doing to make a steady profit or to live to trade another day. I know how it is when you get laid off from work or a project is completed then there is no more work. That is why I try to hard to get in that 5% because I want to be in control of my own income and not someone else dictating when I can and cannot work. Good luck Matthew and I hope you make enough money to help you to get into trading full-time.
February 26, 2010 at 20:53
I am the same way. I hate working for someone else, my wife and I were making good money with our online stores and ebay.. I have always been the entrepreneur type, I live by my own rules and want to be able to be sick when I am sick and spend time with my family when I want,, a J.O.B only gets in the way of that.. I will keep at this until I get in that 5%.. I have always succeeded in everything I put my mind to and this is no different.. I hear all the time about how we can’t make it in Forex, but the way I look at it is that even the big dogs in forex now,, where little dogs like us back then… I will keep trading and I will succeed in fact I have been do well.. I don’t know if that will carry over to March but I hope.. As Tiger said in Winny The Poo,,,,TTFN,,,,,,,,,:)
February 28, 2010 at 21:28
Matthew,
Just read Friday’s posts… It’s been great chatting with you, so don’t be a stranger. Good luck on the project!!!!
February 26, 2010 at 21:18
Well, good luck with your work Matthew and dont be a stranger, as i understod it your not quitting just gonna be busy.
Hey guys, did u see we have a dubble if not a tripple doji on weekly chart… i guess we are still bearish until it breaks 1.37 though
Will be interesting to see how you gonna play this one Mark.