2-26-10
5:08a GMT – Another week down, another Friday ahead of us.
Yesterday was pretty volatile at times, moving 120+ pips in 2 hours alone. I took two trades – the first one off of the initial challenge of the (former) rising trend support, now resistance on the 15:00 gmt candle. This quickly yielded 50 pips. The initial challenge of that type of SR is always the most fruitful in my experience. My second trade is actually still open – a short on the 4:00a GMT shooting star candle (see candlestick alerts) in the resistance zone of 1.3550-1.3580 from my primary trade signal yesterday. That trade has not moved much since its open.
Daily Outlook: Once again it is a Friday and, of course, we have some mixed signals (anyone see a pattern here?). I’ve gotten a few questions about “are we in a double bottom situation” and the answer is – it is too early to tell. To satisfy me we would need a sustained break above 1.3800 before I would take a double bottom scenario seriously. Remember, confirmation on the charts is necessary to risk equity on – otherwise its nothing more than a coin flip. Our strong falling trend resistance is still holding the pair down and as long as that holds I am bearish in the short term.
Trading Idea: It is Friday and signals are mixed so I will be very conservative with my trade plan for the day. For those looking to re-enter the market the first place I will look is on the falling trend resistance, currently at 1.3620, with short targets at 1.3585, 1.3550 and 1.3520. It would have to be a very good signal however for me to double on my current short as I don’t want to go into the weekend heavy, so a more conservative (and less likely to be tripped) entry points would be resistance at 1.3650 and 1.3700.
(click to enlarge)
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February 26, 2010 at 13:28
Mini train almost ready to shoot…..US data anytime now
February 26, 2010 at 13:29
Mark,
Looks like your SL got hit, just barely though. Are you back in after the candle on the 30 minute chart?
February 26, 2010 at 13:31
so itis up trend or down trend ??????????????
February 26, 2010 at 13:34
down, look at daily chart, youll see it
February 26, 2010 at 13:42
i use 1 hours charts… it seems down right ???
February 26, 2010 at 14:05
its been down for a few months now, you dont have access to daily charts?
If not, maybe this can be of some help, Mark gave me/us this link a while back…
http://www.netdania.com
February 26, 2010 at 15:08
I make it pretty clear in my analysis we are in a down trend…
February 26, 2010 at 13:39
Thanks Mark – great call yet again…Second target hit…
February 26, 2010 at 15:08
:)
February 26, 2010 at 13:57
what happend? crude just took off im guessing thats why the dollar went down… but why, what happend?
February 26, 2010 at 13:59
GDP (QoQ) (Annualized) (4Q P) – 5.9% versus 5.7% and 5.7% previously
Personal Consumption (4Q P) 1.7% versus 2.0% expected and 2.0% previously
February 26, 2010 at 15:24
Yup…I watched the market when this news was released.
It’s mixed – good and bad news. That’s why the mini train for today never left the building.
February 26, 2010 at 14:00
Hello markus, is not so clear, but im on sell.. cross fingerss
February 26, 2010 at 14:04
Figures were fairly positive – especially private investment part of GDP, so maybe Risk Appetite creeping back into market…Just my thoughts..
February 26, 2010 at 14:20
Hello friends,
I don’t understand the GDP of UK was good, and the GDP of Japan was not good, even then the gbp/jpy pair is keep going down. Any idea ?
February 26, 2010 at 14:31
Hendrik,
I hope you caught that beautiful belt hold candle on cable at 9.30am. All day profit is hard to beat !!!
February 26, 2010 at 15:27
Oh Bummer… I hope this thing can stay under that trend line…
February 26, 2010 at 15:29
I still have an open position and target was 3530 area, I already closed one for profit
February 26, 2010 at 15:31
I guess the three rejections at the 3560 support should have told me to TP there.. OOPPS
February 26, 2010 at 15:29
The key to today’s profit is the resistance at 1.3610-1.3630. If you didn’t get a short in this earlier, the game is already over for today. From now onwards, IMO, prices are just gonna range for today.
For those trying to close out their losses from yesterday, I hope you found a good close at around 1.3555.
Enjoy the weekend, next week will be another good one.
Thanks to Mark for bringing us together.
February 26, 2010 at 15:32
What the heck! we’re up again at 1.3615. hmm…repeat performance? I’ll think about it.
February 26, 2010 at 15:33
I took profit on one position down there but I left a smaller position open for a lower target….. If it gets hit it won’t hurt to much…
February 26, 2010 at 15:36
We ought to safe from any short above 1.3600. Might just have to wait over the weekend.
I’m contemplating if I should set another short signal for 1.3620.
February 26, 2010 at 15:36
woops…nevermind..while I spoke it shot up to 1.3630.
Something is spooking the market now. I think I’ll sit out.
February 26, 2010 at 15:39
Checked the news.. bad US house data.
At this point, 1.3650 or 1.3700 are the safer short entries.
February 26, 2010 at 15:40
SL hit on smaller position.. Will wait this out for a bit.. First trade worked out for me though..
February 26, 2010 at 15:40
hehe!
February 26, 2010 at 15:44
Hey Markus,, How is my favorite Swede doing this morning/afternoon
February 26, 2010 at 16:03
Hey Matthew, Im just sitting here and watching the market moves, waiting for a new opurtunity… got stoped out on the first one (in profit though)
How are you doing?
February 26, 2010 at 17:22
Having a good Friday.. Just kickin back as well..
February 26, 2010 at 15:37
staled for the moment @ 1.3635
for god sake nobody sold @ 1.35 ?
February 26, 2010 at 15:43
I almost did…but my better judgement told me to stay out.
Pays to stick to your principles.
February 26, 2010 at 15:43
Smart thought !
February 26, 2010 at 15:38
there is comes 1.3650
February 26, 2010 at 15:43
nice touch off the daily r2 mm what to do?
February 26, 2010 at 15:38
headed to 1.3650
February 26, 2010 at 15:44
You thinking of trying 1.3650 ?
I’m thinking about it.
February 26, 2010 at 15:42
my CPR indicator called the sell at 1.3565, but it also calls a lot of things wrong!
February 26, 2010 at 15:44
buy not sell. Sell would have been horrible!
February 26, 2010 at 15:45
oh..then it was a good call!
Tell me more about this CPR.
February 26, 2010 at 15:48
Its just a Candlestick pattern recognition indicator in the MT4 software of the broker I use.
February 26, 2010 at 15:49
wow..that’s cool.
Please IM me at jbmelraji (Yahoo). I’d like to learn. I got into MT4 EA programming a few weeks ago.
February 26, 2010 at 15:47
Hi Mark, (Piphut). Thanx again for your excellent analasys today…. I know the days not over yet so maybe even more pips to be had now price has touched your 13650 res prediction, the 15 min candle look promising for a drop now. What are your thoughts on the 2 Dojis on the weekly chart?
February 26, 2010 at 15:49
im in 1,3648 short lets see mm maybe im in to fast but lets see.
February 26, 2010 at 15:50
yeah…I waited for exactly 1.3650…didn’t happen yet. Will wait for it again.
February 26, 2010 at 15:53
18 pips so far ;)
February 26, 2010 at 15:50
Trend resistance breached …tempted to buy
Would be really greedy to go against the trend. :-)
February 26, 2010 at 15:52
Guys big short covering mode. I think the target is 1.3690 major resistance. Too many stop losses parked at 1.365 market may try to attempt to take them out that will give a push again. Thats friday for you. Too volatile.
February 26, 2010 at 15:57
Good opinion.
February 26, 2010 at 15:53
what happened to eu?…it’s spooking high
February 26, 2010 at 15:55
and im out yesssss baby its weekend. 1,3625
thanks mark for your effort
February 26, 2010 at 15:56
Nice one…I would have got out just about now too.
February 26, 2010 at 16:00
thks John have a nice weekend
heyhey going up again mmmm wow
February 26, 2010 at 16:01
sheesh yeah….1.3648 again anyone?
February 26, 2010 at 16:02
nevermind…looks like everyone’s stops are being hit now. Shooting up
February 26, 2010 at 16:04
mmm maybe this candle on the 1 our will become a nice doji so we will know in 55 minutes
February 26, 2010 at 16:09
We are entering the first resistance line for our conservative trade… I’ll be on the lookout for a good candlestick. At 1.3700 (depending on what time it is) I’ll probably take a short regardless of candlesticks
February 26, 2010 at 16:12
“depending on what time it is” you mean like an hour or so before market close you will stay out?
February 26, 2010 at 16:14
The Friday short squeeze magnified by the end of month short squeeze. This is the pro’s adjusting their positions for the next/end month.
February 26, 2010 at 16:17
If you toss a coin you could make some serious cash now up or down. 50/50
February 26, 2010 at 16:20
I call tails.
February 26, 2010 at 16:19
Running into some serious daily resistance,, I would imagine there are allot of sellers up here…
February 26, 2010 at 16:19
Mark just fill us in when you do your on fire this week
February 26, 2010 at 16:27
entered 1.3650
February 26, 2010 at 16:28
shorted @1.3650
February 26, 2010 at 16:35
Pierre – whats your stop loss? You willing to ride it up to 3690 before it comes back down?
February 26, 2010 at 16:42
i’m betting retracement ^^
(i allow it to me because i’m on minilot 10K)
February 26, 2010 at 16:30
This is the time where emotions can really get ya..
February 26, 2010 at 16:33
Matt your right I waiting for 1.37 or a sell signal
February 26, 2010 at 16:36
Yep…
February 26, 2010 at 16:37
I got my poker face on and I don’t mean Lady GaGa:) lol..
February 26, 2010 at 16:38
Matthew – you are the one always telling people to wait for the candle!
February 26, 2010 at 16:40
It’s just how I trade,, No body has to do it that way..
February 26, 2010 at 16:43
A lot of people are just in and out no matter what. I don’t even get it.
I will even go for 3690. 20 away.
February 26, 2010 at 16:45
Yeah Matthew..what’s up with that..and the poker face and all ?
hehehaa ..lol…just kidding. It’s Friday.
February 26, 2010 at 19:16
Hey. Sorry I irritated you about candles, I did not know I was irritating people,, that was not my intention… I will keep my thoughts to myself,, I hope you where able to get in up there for some profit.. Have a great weekend:)
February 26, 2010 at 16:36
doji or not doji?
February 26, 2010 at 16:40
On what time chart? I don’t see anything close on the EUR/USD…
February 26, 2010 at 16:41
come on 3700!
February 26, 2010 at 16:45
yeah baby….me too..I’m only confident for 1.3700 at this point.
February 26, 2010 at 16:46
…considering 1.3650 got chewed up and spit out rather quickly.
February 26, 2010 at 16:50
Yeh I’m with ya..
February 26, 2010 at 16:42
30m , but not a good signal, i’m waiting 1.37 and a candlestick signal
February 26, 2010 at 16:43
fundamental are pretty good for US, another reason for euro fever ?
February 26, 2010 at 16:49
Really? That was good US news? AGI just blew it, and house sales unexpected dropped like a bomb.
But the ‘good’ news is that it is getting us to a great shorting position at 1.3700. I could hold this one for a few days and not lose sleep over.
February 26, 2010 at 16:51
AIG
February 26, 2010 at 17:00
yeah got this one
but GDP was close or as expected, and other minor stats was not so bad…
maybe people think Lehman is flying over AIG
February 26, 2010 at 16:46
Just popped its 100 EMA on 4hr. Will it sink from here?
February 26, 2010 at 16:48
Hey JohnR,,, I’m just rockin out to some good music having a cold one ( it’s five O’ clock somewhere )waiting for sellers to come in but it is Friday so I am be very cautious..
February 26, 2010 at 16:50
funny..I’m listening to Midnight Train to Georgia. Seriously!
I’ve got to go! I’ve got to go!
February 26, 2010 at 16:54
I had some Pink Floyd on earlier,, But now rollin some Phoenix and Passion Pit..lol:)
February 26, 2010 at 16:49
I chickened out. came one pip short of being stopped out. I ended up moving my tp @ 1.3680…Made 75 pips.. I am wasted. Time to go to bed. Great meeting you all. Till next time
AlexF
February 26, 2010 at 16:50
could this be it being a sneaky signal man I hate this market sometimes LOL
February 26, 2010 at 16:50
Gold crude s&p500 eurgbp and more are possibly showing dojis at 1h chart at closing… possibly
February 26, 2010 at 16:52
Anyone short or do you think 1.37 is in effect
February 26, 2010 at 16:52
Stochs on the USDAUD 1hr are in overbought region and are about to cross. Nice Doji too. USDAUD can be a good barometer for EURUSD
February 26, 2010 at 16:55
yes, i like that. lets see maybe we got a lot of liars out there, hehe
February 26, 2010 at 17:07
yeah..but shouldn’t overbought for USDAUD be oversold for EURUSD ? We’re talking two different sides of the rates here.
February 26, 2010 at 17:15
yes but its really AUDUSD he just typed it wrong ;)
February 26, 2010 at 16:57
Urggh!!!
February 26, 2010 at 16:59
Turn off your PC and drink some beer!
February 26, 2010 at 17:01
anyone short
February 26, 2010 at 17:05
nope…it’s 1.3700 or nothing.
February 26, 2010 at 17:03
looks good, went down right after i went short
February 26, 2010 at 17:06
yeah..you spooked it for good!
February 26, 2010 at 17:12
lol, yeah. Me and my massive mini account, hehe
February 26, 2010 at 17:14
No need to be embarrassed. I’m on a mini too. I’m only playing for lunch money.
February 26, 2010 at 17:17
im playing for beers ;) and maybe a COOL car in the future.
(not embarrased, just making joke)
February 26, 2010 at 17:09
i move my sl to BE, i dont trust the market so much today, hehe
February 26, 2010 at 17:06
1.37 not today :(
February 26, 2010 at 17:08
no worries…just have a great weekend then.
February 26, 2010 at 17:10
This is obvious for the op to sell, if there is another reversal? thanks Mark
February 26, 2010 at 17:14
perfect bounce off the .3615
February 26, 2010 at 17:24
Did you get in
February 26, 2010 at 17:24
I’m go one shot at 1.6659 floating +45pips now
February 26, 2010 at 17:35
Why did you go against the trend?
February 26, 2010 at 17:36
No I’m short EURUSD my friend
February 26, 2010 at 17:41
I’m out + 47pips :D I call it quick money. Have a great weekend everyone
February 26, 2010 at 17:37
oh ok
February 26, 2010 at 17:40
Bout the only time this week it dropped like I hoped. Been a tough week here. Way to impatient.
February 26, 2010 at 17:42
Although with this six hour lag in getting Marks signal I miss the boat a lot. Or the so called train!!
February 26, 2010 at 17:44
I got in @ 1.36447. Gonna get out soon…don’t wanna be greedy.
February 26, 2010 at 18:18
very close to sl now (1.3620)