2-5-10
2:14a GMT – Yesterday’s secondary trade (sell a break of 1.4830) played out well as the pair dropped steadily and hit both targets for 125 pips. It’s been a great week of signals/trading altogether as the bearish drops have been have been fairly easy and consistent to sell. The pair has now dropped almost 1000 pips in the past couple weeks – R.I.P to those traders trying to pick bottoms all the way down ;).
Daily Outlook: Still bearish as once again we had a significant bearish break to the downside though I will continue to be more conservative going into the weekend as Friday’s can produce bigger whipsaws and I don’t like to hold trades open over the weekend as anything can happen. Therefore I will look for shorts in the area of the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of Feb 3 – Feb 4 high/low. We also have a falling trend resistance in that area giving further weight to the area.
Trading Idea: Conservative trade is in the 1.3900 area with targets at 1.3860, 1.3830 1.3790 and 1.3760. If this wasn’t friday I would probably take a less conservative approach and look to sell at 1.3850 resistance area – which I still could if there is enough time left in the trading day and the signal is strong enough. If we see any consolidation during the day a secondary trade would be to sell the consolidation support break.
(click to enlarge)
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still mine resistance 1.375 holds;)
tommay
you think thst xau usd is stiil short
its reversal, not rebound or changing trend! But Eurozone markets are now little improving
Mine trailing stop broke on my xau trades, made good profits and entered new short @ 1060 , BE , but anything could happen but , I am still very bearish, markets are more volative than ever, be carefull.
Eurusd trailing stop was just barely 10 pips higher.
So eurusd positions still open
Hi Everybody, i have another “system” I use sometimes but problably old news to some of you. When the 5eme crosses the 200ema I either sell or buy as well as when the 5ema crosses the 21ema i do the same. Is this the only way at this stage to get some pipa in the unstable market or not.???
1420 GMT [Dow Jones] The employment report is confusing: jobs lost but unemployment down. But each measure of labor markets comes from two different surveys. Companies and governments surveyed for Labor’s establishment survey said they cut 20K jobs, on net. But households surveyed by the Labor Dept said that 541K more jobs were created last month, helping to bring down the jobless rate. Gaps between both surveys are not unusual, but it suggest more people have struck out on their own or are working for companies too small to be captured by Labor’s suvey. (KGM)
Hi Tommy are you a Christian???
yep!
I thought so, You are always thanking God for stuff
He is guiding me, helping me , giving me all I need. Never I have had lack of nothing. All the glory is his not mine! My prosperity is all in his glory. Thanks God!
I new there was a reason I liked you Tommy… ;)
I get my preaching on Sunday!
Praise the Lord! That is what I am talking about it – giving glory to whom it is due. I likewise give God all the praise, glory and honor for all things in my life including the opportunity to learn to trade and make a career with trading.
Tommy,, I meant that in a good way btw, I didn’t mean that to sound bad… :)
I did not take it bad… I am just always remembering to try to stay on the ground level, you know:)
I know my friend, I just recently came back…
Matthew,
why did you recently come back from
hi,
Good to hear you are a christian. i just have a quick question.
how do you pay tithe on forex trading? do you pay per winning trade OR according to the amount that you withdraw from your broker?
Please help
David
50 pips so far see above comment re EMA’s
1427 GMT [Dow Jones] Because payroll data were mixed–showing an unexpected loss of jobs, but an improving unemployment rate, “it’s difficult for the market to arrive at the conclusion whether this is good, bad or indifferent,” said Daragh Maher at Calyon. When markets are unsure how to digest mixed data, “the ultimate decision at the end of the day is, well, just carry on what we were doing before,” he said, meaning the sovereign debt issues in the euro zone will again come to the forefront, weighing on the euro, he said. EUR/USD at 1.3692 from 1.3741 late Thu, according to EBS via CQG. “When you’ve got [anti-euro] momentum of this kind of scale, you need something to reverse it.” The payrolls data didn’t provide the impetus to stop the momentum, he said. (BMD)
Today I became one of the 95% – my account has now bottomed out. I’ll bid you all farewell. Good luck to you all.
Sorry to hear that Paul. I also lost everything once. I didn’t give up. I like Forex very much. You need patience. You don’t have to say good bye. You can still learn on demo. Once you are comfortable go back to your real account. Especially now you know about Piphut. You have a better chance.
Paul,
Don’t give up. I have been there. You just have to save up your money again and in the meantime. Trade on demo and stay here in Piphut.com and learn. Wish you well.
Paul, Your killing me man,,, You can’t just give up… I agree with Priya.. Winner never quit they always find ways to win… I had a huge draw down… Still do but it is getting better because of Mark and piphut…. Please don’t give up man…. It’s not easy but it will pay off… The 95% are the ones that gave up……. Anyone can reach there goals, it’s all about attitude…… Take the weekend to cool down and then jump back in with a demo account….
I can may be help you around… In couple of months or so. If you wanna join the ride.. all the best!
Paul, maybe you can think of it like the cost of education. I lost money before, thats how i did. just get back up on the horse and try again. But probably with a demo account at first…
Everybody looses at the begining, when you start to trade you are like thrown from the homecouch to the superbowl field as quarterback. They are not making it easy for beginners. They hit you hard and are cruel, they want all the points and your position, they have experience training, Its their job& living, (passion), they know all the tricks , they not what to predict . They have all the systems, lots more capital. They will not bend.
But when you just know what you know and dont know. And dont use all strategies,you will just get messed up. find that suites you the best and find the days you will make points and days to stay off.You only need one system to make points, for example if you are a bare kicker..enough symbolims AND SPECIALLY DONT GIVE UP; THINK YOU WILL WIN AND YOU WIN, with the help of GOD ofcourse;)
Hi Paul, am sorry for all your losses. But i was like you. I knew exactly what you feel but pls don’t give up. Get up and get back on the top of your horse and ride again.
Paul,
I read somewhere that the average person has a margin call three times before they start making money. It’s a hard lesson to learn but the advantages of sticking with are are enormous. Stick with it and we’ll all help each other, remember the motto “United we stand”.
I have had my margin call three or four times in the first three months. After that it just changed 80profits/20 % losses, mainly from too close stops and inpatience and aggressive attitude..etc..
Thanks, that makes me feel a lot better. With the support of you all, i will continue. Excuse me if I bombard you with questions over the next couple of weeks though !! Tell me to shut up if it gets too bad. Thanks again.
Paul, I’m glad to see you continuing but remember to never risk more than you can afford to lose. Use a demo account and journal until you are confident in all your trades again – not before.
Glad to have back on board buddy
I haven’t read all the comments so if someone already said — my apologies. You need a trading plan written down. And then trade your plan, KEEP TO IT
Hi Tommy I am glad and God bless.
Yippee, It’s Superbowl weekend,,, Time to break out the chips and dip…. And watch the Colts win….
Matthew,
I agree with getting out the chips and dip and watching those Saints win!!!
Hey wait a second you said Saints… Did really mean Colts lol;)
Lisa I think it is a good buy on USD/CHF @ 1.072
Let us help Paul. Let us have a look at his technical indicators etc. Mine is simple if you interested Paul but do not give up, everybody will help you.
I love your website. Information is very valuable. People are nice and kind to each other, they are cultured and generous. Congratulations. I really mean it.
Thanks Michael it is all about the community. Welcome to PipHut :)
Paul, are you still here.. Lets talk about it…. What do you need help with…
I think it’s just experience. I’m getting in at the correct points, but then either pulling out too early or too late.
Paul, I had the same problem, are you pulling out when it goes against you just a bit, and then you pull out with a loss and the price jumps back in the direction you where wanting it to.
Spot on, and also waiting too long for confirmation so that buffer zone is far reduced which either means SL gets triggered or SL need to be much larger than the suggestion ratio
Brother man that is what I and probably every one else here has gone through. Heck I am still going through that… The trick is not to be afraid of losing.. I know that sounds weird but when you see a signal jump in,, don’t be careless but jump in on a good signal or strong rejection of a resistance level.. You have to learn to trust your trades, you won’t win them all.. You have to remember that when you place a trade the price might bounce back against you a little.. People are getting on the bus and people are getting off the bus witch will make it a little jumpy. I use to place a trade and have the price jump back against me a little and then close out thinking I had messed up only to have the price go back in my direction 50-10 pips… I still place trades and they go against me sometimes 15 pips but then it will shoot in my direction, I believe it is people just getting on and off the bus making the price jump a little.. Do not let your emotions take hold of you. If you believe you entered on a good signal, and were not careless,, stay with it,,,
Paul,
The best thing you must learn in forex is PATIENCE! Without that you cannot do anything. Regarding Stop loss, I don’t know about others, but I give little breathing space for a trade. I used to panic before (when I was a newbie). Most of us in Piphut place a comment about our trades. So you can understand when exactly to enter a trade. Try demo first. There are some nice brokers who give good spreads. Once you are comfortable (at least 1 or 2 more months on demo) start fresh with your preferred broker with micro lots (if you get with your broker). In micro lots profit ($) is less and also the losses.
I would suggest opening a demo account, you don’t have to play with real money, remember Haste makes waste.. Then open a trading journal here at Piphut, post what you see and what happened when you pull out and see if we can nail down what the problem is… Is it fear of losing or what.. You know what I mean.. Remember we are a community of traders helping each other out.. Don’t just ditch us with out giving it all you got and exhausting every helping hand… Post your last couple of trades and charts and see what we can do…
Cool man – I’ll go back to the drawing board – thanks for your understanding.
Open a journal.. Set rules on your money managment check out http://piphut.com/learn-forex/learn-forex-1-money-management/. Don’t try and use Forex as a get rich quick thing. Learn to trade well and the money will follow.. With that I mean work on watching price action and what the market has a tendency to do. Like breaking through a support line only to come back tap that line and then move down.. Little things like that happen all the time.. Another thing don’t try and control the market, just go with the flow, take the opportunities the market give you.. With that I mean be available to what signals the market gives you and have an open mind, remember anything can happen.. Yesterdays losses might not happen today because there might be a million less traders in it, they might not see the signal you do but next time they might and you get a grip of pips.. The
Priya nailed it on the head,,PATIENCE is very important…
Patience isn’t the problem. I’ve never got in a trade ( that went good or bad ) too early. It’s more about trusting in my analysis and noticing the difference between a trade retracing ( as that’s what it inevitably does ) and a trade going bad. The majority of times I’ve pulled out on ‘usual’ retracements and stayed in on bad trades !!! If I got this the other way around all would be good I guess. I thinks it’s mainly down to experience. I’ll do some reading over the weekend and maybe do a week of paper trading.
Mark how are you getting on with your signal system? Hope you have not forgot about the system.
I haven’t forgotten about it at all and it is better than ever. It’s just all the backend stuff of hooking it up to the website that is slow and tedious
Mark,
Take your time and we will be appreciative whenever you are ready.
That sounds great Mark
Any idea on USD/JPY? I think it is a good buy at the moment!!!
I am not good with JPY.
i am short on this pair
it seems like JPY has been strengthen by China economy
I was yesterday or day before that( lost of time)
tried hedging with these pairs eurusd and usdjpy , with positing shorts , did not work at all, both dropped and gave profits..;)
Going long now on that pair in my opini is not that good idea, it will soon start stalling , only little movement, its night in asia markets open sunday night gmt…
Thanks Tommy. I want to learn about JPY.
anyone still in? what do you guys think about EURUSD? still going down?
I was in @ 1.37 and made 50 pips. I want to get in again. waiting for 1.37 to enter.
Markets its really volative, stressed! I dont like fridays. Getting too tired. Good for scalpers(including me)xau 70 pips up and down . I think I will close my all positions before the weekend, with tighter stops.
Good luck all , its still looks pretty bearish ,but those hammers:(
which pair were u talking about? EURUSD?
GBP/USD is heading up, thinking to short @ 1.57.
Is 15720 not a better resistance level ?
I think you are right. Thanks Paul.
Wanna thank Tommy for giving out news reports as my news servers were down earlier – Top Man
You’re welcome , Thanks
Will keep it going..
You are a massive help to us all, Have learned lots from you, Have a great weekend,our main man Tommy :)
That’s because he is a cool guy, and cool guys are cool like that…
european markets closed as asian markets all negative figures.
Patience pays..
1544 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR is in “free fall” as investors focus on festering sovereign debt issues in the euro zone, said analysts at Custom House, a currency services firm. “Portugal and Spain are now under intense scrutiny as their fiscal situations deteriorate and debt burdens become overwhelming,” said Brendan McGrath. “The euro is in much need of a reprieve from its recent free fall, but the fragile situation in Europe should keep the common currency under some pressure.” EUR/USD was at 1.3677 from 1.3741 late Thu, according to EBS via CQG.
FREE FALL , harsh word, Still not closed my positions , wanna close them, and head for the weekend..but the pair keeps falling:)/:(
eur/gbp rebound expected!!
God help me I can’t close out!
I’m not saying you should, but a little motto I like: “bulls and bears make money. Pigs go to slaughter.”
Not only is the euro in free fall, so is oil. I just took 250 pips from that drop. And all thanks to what I learnt here. Thanks Mark and all you guys.
Well I’m out, nabbed 127 pips on that bounce off the 23 fibo. I am off to get the SuperColts week end started…. I meant the Superbowl weekend started.. You all have a wonderful weekend and be safe…..Talk to ya on Monday…
Well done Matthew, hope the right team wins this weekend. Enjoy the Superbowl. I have been to a few ‘Bowl parties when working in the US. Always a lot of fun. But they go on too long and I end up consuming to much……
Made 190 pips today. Still missed some good trades like GBP/USD.
Have a nice weekend all of you.
Good job and keep up the good work.
Thank you Lisa
Could I pose a Question please. It might be relavant or not. WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO FOREX TRADERS IF THE “NEW WORLD” IMPLEMENTS A ONE WORLD MONETARY SYSTEM ??
Get jobs..;)
No for real though that is a good question, I was talking to my farther about that very thing the other day..
That’s a long, long way off. There has been talk of a world currency since the 1950s, there will always be countries not apart of it even if it did happen and even if it all happened and all countries joined there are always other things to trade.
Worst case scenario? We could all trade gold against whatever the one world currency is!
Thanks Mark and Bob,
Appreciate your input maybe i am being paranoid
Louis,
Relax and enjoy the now!!!!
Paul
Try losing $4000 in a week. Doing exactly this: “Too often new traders lose too much and then get increasingly desperate in their trades to attempt to “make up” the lost money” I lost $1200 on one trade and then nearly $2800 on the next trade – buying the euro exactly when it started dropping on the morning of 19th Jan.
But I’m not giving up. Just learning the hard way!!
Don’t feel bad – I was short the Euro all day and still barely broke even! Got stopped out on the spike this morning (should have paid attention to the employment release), gained it all back and a lot more, then gave most of it up to the end-of-day rally.
Nigel,
How many lots did you have on these trades? Hopfully, you didn’t let the SL get too big but just had many lots.
Hi Lisa
One full lot of the first trade ($10 a pip) and two full lots on the second trade. Kept moving my stop loss on the hope that the trade would recover. I started trading six months ago and always used a stop loss system. Not quite sure what got into me this time except the desire to “get back” at the market which is absolutely a fatal thing to do!! But, I suppose, what really comes out of it is the cardinal error of trading too much leverage. I’ve entered hundreds of trades and been going in the right direction 95% of the time but got stopped out so many times because of not giving the trade enough “breathing space”. And of course you can’t set a reasonable stop loss if you’re over leveraged, that’s the problem. Especially if one trades mainly during the London/New York session the volatility is very high and one can get stopped out so quickly setting a 20 or 30 pip stop loss. Also, don’t know if anyone else has noticed how often one’s SL gets hunted down and the price quickly reverses? I truely think that it’s no accident, although most pros say it’s just market volatility.
Anyway, the best success I’ve actually had (before finding out about Piphut) is scalping – just 10 pips, one full lot ($10 a pip) on cable (GBPUSD) during the London early morning breakout(from about 6.30am – 8.30am GMT) usually without setting any stop loss at all!!
Rgds
Nigel
Nigel,
I still sad to hear about your loss but I know you will turn it around because you pretty much know what you are or are not doing. I think you just got to get your system that works and keep it going. I had to go demo just to try to rekindle what my working system was and just stick to it.
Mark,
Are you posting todays signal! Thanks
I think bearish channel contiunues, but I will not enter before Us market opens.
And on xauusd it clearly follow usmarkets so waiting on london markets show clear candle signal on major fibo level before entering long on the xau.