2-9-10
5:24a GMT – We had a PipHut record for number of comments yesterday at well over 300 (and I’m pretty sure Tommy cemented himself as Top PipHutter of the month only 9 days into February – see top 10 on the right nav). PipHut itself had over 7000+ views yesterday alone – imagine how many comments there would be if everyone participated. Probably too many!
From a signal standpoint our bearish bias yesterday yielded good pips yesterday if you were willing to be a bit more aggressive – I had resistance at 1.3680 (and drawn in at 1.3715 on the chart) and we had a few nice long wicks just touching that 1.3715 resistance and closing near 1.3680 (10:00 gmt) that gave a good shorting signal. First target was hit before the pair bounced back up and then dropped back down to the first target once again for another 30-40 pips.
Daily Outlook: Since then the pair has climbed in the early morning hours kicking a long wick at 1.3715 (which I shorted with a single lot). Looking at the hourlies we can see the pair has been in a bearish consolidation wedge for the past few days which bodes well for the short positions. The risk at this point is, of course, a larger correction perhaps up to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and resistance at 1.3850. While they would certainly offer an appealing area to short I’m looking for a more short-term drop.
Trading Idea: I took a very small position on last hour’s challenge of 1.3715 with the long wick. I will look to add to that position with a break of the bottom rising trend support (currently at 1.3660). From 1.3715 short targets are 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3615 and 1.3585. If we see a larger correction the next resistance area to look for shorts at is 1.3750.
(click to enlarge)
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February 9, 2010 at 18:47
I call this drip drip profit we have to wait for the next support then maybe I mean maybe. We will get to that beautiful 1.3680-90 without hassle.
February 9, 2010 at 19:35
next support 1.374
February 9, 2010 at 19:05
Knew something was going on today. Kept out. Got some work done. Will come back tomorrow. Enjoying snow here
February 9, 2010 at 19:20
I’m still in has everyone left I’m really gutsy but trust me I have my stops setup so I don’t loose. Been in since 1.3840 if it doesnt break 1.3680 I will tp at 1.3750 or 1.3700 depending on the outcome. As I don’t no what to exect for the rest of the week.
February 9, 2010 at 19:34
closed out my short eurgbp trade for 52 pips had 2 mini lots traded. A dollars in the bank.
February 9, 2010 at 19:40
Nothing wrong with that, it’s about pips not dollars.
February 9, 2010 at 19:39
nice EUR/USD consolidation.
targets/supports 1.374 ,1.3695 and 1.3670
February 9, 2010 at 20:28
Tommy i just got in from work, i missed the 1.3840 spot. Is it still wise to jump in now and take profit at 1.374.
February 9, 2010 at 19:48
Sorry I meant a few dollars banked for a change instead of many dollars lost..
February 9, 2010 at 19:54
Hallo, I’m back.
I’ve been out of commission for the past 2 hours and I see there has been some activity. Is it worth jumping in now, in your humble opinions??
February 9, 2010 at 20:11
I was thinking it should be ok at 1.3830 or close to it… i would like some opinions about that though.
February 9, 2010 at 20:16
gonna see what happens in australia and asia, hope they will see t as a great short opportunity.
February 9, 2010 at 20:08
I would’nt suzanne it is volatil with to little movement you would be stuck in a seasaw. And still the next direction is unknown. Patience the number 1 rule in forex. If it breaks 1.374 then the next rresistance is 1.3680-90.
February 9, 2010 at 20:16
Hi Everyone, Now is the time to catch up on something else like running round the block and maybe dodge a bullet or two or try not to be stabbed. It is more fun than watching the range market anyway. It is 22h00 in RSA so good night and thank you for all the help to-day Mark/ Tommy and everybody.
February 9, 2010 at 20:23
Hi Don,
Thanks. The Asian session may be less volatile.
February 9, 2010 at 20:46
Mark, don’t know what you have in mind but this cowboy fest isn’t helping anybody.
February 9, 2010 at 20:49
Are you talking about what others posted? I’m not going to ban everyone because I don’t agree with their trading style Alvin.
February 9, 2010 at 20:51
There is a reason 95% of new traders fail and you have to internalize that and apply that understanding to everything you read and hear – other people’s comments, other sites sales pitches, even your brokers advice. I encourage you to be skeptical but I won’t disallow other people the opportunity to learn for themselves.
February 9, 2010 at 22:08
I wonder what it is that offends him so much, why can’t a group of traders be able to help each other and give different views.. I love coming here, I get all kinds of stuff but just because some one says they are jumping in does not make me jump in as well, unless I have seen something on my chart that says jump in.. I think this is twice now we have all been cowboys (kinda rude i suppose) just not something I would do being a grown man and all… Well Once again Mark you have come through for your Pipkateers.. Thanks man I’ll talk to ya in the morning…
February 9, 2010 at 21:06
Very well said Sir. I’m new to this thread and noticed some interesting questions on longer term trading. It’s a fact I believe, that around 95% of new day traders fail. Maybe the exception to that is those following your signals I do hope.
But do you maybe agree with what I read the other day that the reason simply is that most newbies simply overtrade? So it all becomes very much like gambling. And it seems clear that the tables are very much stacked against you. The most successful traders I believe trade quite rarely but when they do trade it’s usually a good one. Trading only the very best setups and let the trade run for days or even weeks.
Sounds so easy, why is it so difficult for us newbies
February 9, 2010 at 21:37
That is very true. I think we are all guilty of that. But, there are such great traders on here that offer superb guidance. For example, Don, for his young years, is grounded, humble and polite, as is George and Tommy (and others). I don’t hesitate to ask a question and often get an answer from several people. I’m learning and I’m having fun as well.
I agree about longterm trading. I would prefer to do that so that I don’t have to watch my trade all the time. But, all in good time. I plan to succeed and refuse to belong to the 95% crowd. Failure is not an option.
Have a superb evening,
Susanne
February 9, 2010 at 21:54
Thank you Susanne for the compliment. I analyzed the 1.3800 retracement. For 2 months of trading I know that was a great call. I pledge that I belong in the 5% that survive this business. Don’t be sursprised to see me commenting one year from now that’s well guaranteed. Make sure your using stops folks thats one of the many ways to survive!!!!
February 9, 2010 at 22:09
hey guys,
does anyone see the EURUSD challenging the recent low of 1.3584? or even getting close to it? I’m having a hard time determining if this is simply a huge retracement or a reversal? any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks to all you Piphutters for your continued input.
February 9, 2010 at 22:13
I belive… in order to become great fishermen ourselfs we cant just follow Mark around and fish where he suggest we fish. Have to try and find some sweet spots ourselfs, using the great knowledge that is freely available here at piphut.
I can easely say im a far better fisherman now than a year ago. A day like today would have killed my account back then. Today i took a minor loss, would have been huge without money management.
But yesterday was a good day, and thats what we want more good days than bad days (or maybe shorter bad days.)
Well Cheers fellow pipshermen (just trying that one out, hehe) and good night.
February 9, 2010 at 22:39
Good job Markus.. Hey has anyone come up with ” pipkateers ”
or even “piphutkateers” lol:) Have a wonderful night and talk to ya in the morning..
February 9, 2010 at 22:44
Hahaha, maybe your as tired as i am
February 9, 2010 at 22:46
Probably, I am delusional… That’s funny..
February 9, 2010 at 23:30
Morning All. Looks like I stopped at the right moment before the big 1.3800 retracement. (other reason:I was already asleep when the 1.3800 occurs).
Its kinda fun reading all the various comments here during the big move.. I Thank you All
February 9, 2010 at 23:41
Looking back at it on the hourly it doesn’t seem that big of a deal now, I think at the time of the move it was so unexpected ( at least to me it was ) and happened so fast.. Glad to hear you did not get zapped by it though..
February 10, 2010 at 00:03
thx Matthew.. true its quite unexpected move.. But I already take precaution of that event when the first jump happened. got a feeling that Mark’s warning of a 1.3850 retracement would happen. Also a tip from Hendrik (thanks Hendrik).. so i got out (and went to bed).. considered it as my own training of patience
February 10, 2010 at 00:57
Cool deal, I had Mark prediction in mind but never thought it would happen that fast. But anything can happen.. Patience is definitely important. :)
February 10, 2010 at 00:14
I’m wondering… since 1.3775 broken..
Will it go for another run to 1.3920 area ..
February 10, 2010 at 01:35
I don’t think so, but if so, it maybe can be considered as a reversal, for now.
Thursday and Friday will be 2 big days on fundamentals for Euro and Dollar.
Now volatility is low, I’m “Sitting on the fence”… Waiting for some good reliable signal..
February 10, 2010 at 02:09
Or maybe an attempt to the daily resistance 1.3860 and sell from there on candle confirmation.
February 10, 2010 at 05:01
Mark, please help??
I still cant log into the forums? My user name is Juan?
Am I doing something wrong?
I want to ask you something on a graph(gold)?
Thank you Mark for everything!
REALLY GREAT WEBSITE
February 10, 2010 at 06:16
Zar, give it a try now. It should work.
February 10, 2010 at 06:53
Mark, I think we have a ‘master candle’ on the H4 chart and the hammer candle on the daily chart is still valid which might lead us to 1.3850. So i will like to buy @ 1.3745 tp 1.3830 or sell from 1.3860 tp 1.3687 or both. Mark, Please advise
February 10, 2010 at 07:05
Generally for a master candle trade you need to have 4 consecutive candles AFTER the master candle. On most GMT chart packages we are still in the 3rd candle (meaning we have to finish this candle and then wait 4 more hours) and on GMT+1 charting packages we are in 4th candle now but it hasn’t closed.
So.. I like your idea but I personally would wait until the close of the 4th candle to verify the trade.
February 10, 2010 at 10:11
Guess this is just a retracement… I am looking for 1.26!
Btw, you may take look at my free forex signal blog: http://juicy-forex-signals.blogspot.com/