February 9, 2010 06:40

Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bulls Force Consolidation

By:

2-9-10

5:24a GMT – We had a PipHut record for number of comments yesterday at well over 300 (and I’m pretty sure Tommy cemented himself as Top PipHutter of the month only 9 days into February – see top 10 on the right nav). PipHut itself had over 7000+ views yesterday alone – imagine how many comments there would be if everyone participated. Probably too many!

From a signal standpoint our bearish bias yesterday yielded good pips yesterday if you were willing to be a bit more aggressive – I had resistance at 1.3680 (and drawn in at 1.3715 on the chart) and we had a few nice long wicks just touching that 1.3715 resistance and closing near 1.3680 (10:00 gmt) that gave a good shorting signal. First target was hit before the pair bounced back up and then dropped back down to the first target once again for another 30-40 pips.

Daily Outlook: Since then the pair has climbed in the early morning hours kicking a long wick at 1.3715 (which I shorted with a single lot). Looking at the hourlies we can see the pair has been in a bearish consolidation wedge for the past few days which bodes well for the short positions. The risk at this point is, of course, a larger correction perhaps up to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and resistance at 1.3850. While they would certainly offer an appealing area to short I’m looking for a more short-term drop.

Trading Idea: I took a very small position on last hour’s challenge of 1.3715 with the long wick. I will look to add to that position with a break of the bottom rising trend support (currently at 1.3660). From 1.3715 short targets are 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3615 and 1.3585. If we see a larger correction the next resistance area to look for shorts at is 1.3750.

(click to enlarge)

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314 Comments on "Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bulls Force Consolidation"
  1. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 06:45
    HENDRIK says:

    Hi Mark
    Be sure to watch the Sevens Rugby coming to Las Vegas this weekend and see some different running skills

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 06:48
      Tommy says:

      Hi Hendrik. Any open positions all ready!

      Waiting to put the magical one near the 1.3715-2 resistance.
      xauusd still showing bullish bias

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 06:53
        HENDRIK says:

        No Tommy not yet. I’m looking at the H1 for a good solid signal

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 06:58
          Tommy says:

          Arent’t we all.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:26
      Badniguel says:

      Well said Henrik. Did you watch any of the six nations on the weekend?.

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 08:30
        HENDRIK says:

        Yes a bit of Eng/Wales. I’m glad england played with some umf as prev they were quite sluggish. The coming weekend will most definetly watch France/Ireland

  2. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 06:45
    Tommy says:

    Thanks Mark!
    Good night!

  3. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 06:47
    HENDRIK says:

    PipHut itself had over 7000+ views yesterday alone – imagine how many comments there would be if everyone participated. Probably too many!
    _______________________________________________________________

    It will be a new day job reading all of it!!

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 06:50
      piphut says:

      Yes it would. I’m not sure I even got through all the comments yesterday. It’s funny I know quite a few PipHutters who have been regulars for almost 2 years now when PipHut was just starting who have never said a word on the blog – they just read.

      Just goes to show you the different types of people out there I guess.

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 06:52
        HENDRIK says:

        maybe they are the “solid traders” :)

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 15:43
        Sunil says:

        I can remember Nov-Dec 2008 having completely blown an account and deciding forex is not for me. Then thought signals are the way to go. Searched google and came across piphut. Since then I learned a lot from Mark and all piphutters. Thanks to all, I am confident enough to trade on my own. Turning point was DEC 2009 when Mark told us to short Euro against the trend. That tripled my account size :-).

  4. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 06:49
    Tommy says:

    Nice one;)

  5. Avatar of piphut
    Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 06:59
    piphut says:

    Ultra-tight stop got kicked on 1.3710 short. Will look to re-enter around 1.3750-1.3760 or break of trend support

  6. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:00
    George says:

    I am going to wait till 1.3750 before I short. Momentum seems strong at this point. I will be patient for now.

  7. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:02
    George says:

    EUR/JPY up = risk taking and down means risk aversion. EUR/JPY was the first to move today. So watch out for the move on it.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:07
      HENDRIK says:

      Hi George
      I missed that one — too early for me

  8. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:04
    Susanne says:

    Good morning, yawnnnnnnnnnnnn

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:07
      George says:

      Good morning. Its going to be lot of action today – I guess.

  9. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:05
    Ben says:

    Hi, i’m new here and i guess i am in the midst of forex pros. I wish to learn a lot about forex and will definitely watch events here with keen interest. By the way, where or how do i start?

    Happy Trading!

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:24
      HENDRIK says:

      Hi Ben
      I take it how to start trading?

  10. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:06
    Michael says:

    Same here.

  11. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:06
    George says:

    EUR/USD – Thats a quick reversal after the break of 1.3720. As if they were gunning for stop losses.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:10
      Yax says:

      I agree with you, they took out my tight stoploss

  12. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:07
    Yax says:

    Good morning everyone………..

  13. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:10
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    PipStars ready for another propipable day!!!!

  14. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:12
    George says:

    GBP – Trade balance report around 9.30 GMT. Usually a medium impact but today expect some swings during this time as there are no more news to come. Can hit stop losses on both sides.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:25
      Tommy says:

      Allready come and was too positive …

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 09:33
        Tommy says:

        on the usd

  15. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:12
    Tommy says:

    Anyways I am in again @ 1.3725, but only few lots and SL 1.3724

  16. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:15
    Susanne says:

    I was surprised to see that the Euro has rallied so much overnight.

    Good morning Ben. I suggest the first thing you do is read Mark’s articles on this site. Before you even start trading, you need to open a demo account and practice with “virtual” money before you use your own. Read, read, read …..

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:16
      George says:

      I agree.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:22
      Ben says:

      Thanks Susanne. I actually have a live trading account and been trading for a while now. Thanks for the tips about reading mark’s articles. I’ll definitely do that.

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 07:30
        Susanne says:

        Hi Ben

        That’s great. Then you’re not such a newbie after all. We look forward to your input.

  17. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:16
    George says:

    Short GBP/USD @ 1.5638 – Small lot with tight stop loss.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:52
      Susanne says:

      Tommy,

      Good call on gold. It’s heading the right way. Us South Africans have a warm relationship with gold, with some of the world’s largest mines located there.

      God bless you all.

  18. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:18
    George says:

    European markets should open soon. Looks like intially they are down taking cues from US markets. EUR will follow european markets today.

  19. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:21
    Tommy says:

    Xauusd reaching yesterdays resistance, placing my short

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:24
      Tommy says:

      Soon!!

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 07:39
        ZAR says:

        Hallo Tommy
        How are you? I think Xauusd is gold?
        Are you in for a short? Where do you think is good entry levels?
        I have been watching gold closely…
        Please give me your advice?
        :)

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 07:54
          Tommy says:

          Allready short @ 1073 yesterdays resistance good entry level. Next resistance 1084.

          Just that gold makes it biggest moves normally on us markethours. So little doubt so early on the morning.

          • Comment left on:
            February 9, 2010 at 07:58
            ZAR says:

            Ok thank you Tommy!
            I also got small entry at 1071
            But think it could retrace to 1080.
            Thanx

          • Comment left on:
            February 9, 2010 at 08:00
            Tommy says:

            Nice shooting star 1H , waits for bearsss

  20. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:25
    Susanne says:

    Tommy, are you sure? 4H, 1H and 15M are all bullish.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 07:27
      Tommy says:

      ofcource I wait for confirmation! for the biggest entry, with smalls I try to catch the tops and bottoms

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 07:33
        Susanne says:

        Tommy,

        You are both clever and bold. All the attributes a great trader should have.

  21. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:32
    Tommy says:

    My friend told me when this start to be boring then you know you are a Pro. I am not there yet;)

    God bless this day and all that participate on piphut!

  22. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:51
    HENDRIK says:

    Tomorrow will be a better day.

  23. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:53
    George says:

    Well, Do asian markets know what we do not? There was some buying in last hour in asian markets.

  24. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:54
    HENDRIK says:

    LONDON (Dow Jones)– Jitters over sovereign debt in European countries such as Greece and Portugal also took their toll Monday, with investors disappointed that the Group of Seven finance ministers, who met over the weekend in Canada, failed to say anything new on the matter. European officials again suggested that a bailout isn’t on the European Union’s agenda

  25. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 07:55
    andrick says:

    who’s in?????

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:00
      George says:

      Selling only small lots today. I went short on cable @ 1.5638. Waiting for the EUR/USD to short @1.3750.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:03
      Tommy says:

      Tommy’s in.

      eur/usd 30M doji and hanginman, and xauusd makes the same time 1H shooting star. Resistance has reached. Shorts in…

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:06
      andrick says:

      i am in anyway…oh..no class today..thanks God for that.i’ve got class yesterday so i didn’t catch many pips…:(

  26. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:01
    Les (Sydney) says:

    Hanging man & dojo on 30m, is anyone going in?

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:04
      forester(Bulgaria) says:

      yes i go in — i hope is good signal

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:10
      andrick says:

      am in..hopt this will work..finhers crossed

  27. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:05
    Susanne says:

    Hi George,

    I was going to short EUR/USD at 1.3750 as well, but I think I may need to reconsider this and enter at 1.3715. George, Tommy, Don, what is your take on this?

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:11
      George says:

      Susanne if you follow bollinger bands – EUR/USD has not been below ist standard deviation- it may bounce. I will wait for it to confirm to break that.

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 08:20
        George says:

        Susanne, I said yesterday. Big traders looking to hit our stop losses. Just being careful ;)

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 08:22
        Tommy says:

        I closed eurusd few pips positive , rising little the entry eurusd if possbile, I have a good entry on the xau

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 08:31
          Tommy says:

          I entered new short 1.3735

  28. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:20
    Terry says:

    Hi I’m new to the game, but notice a nasty little counter trend line from the 13645/50 level that needs to be broken before shorting?

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:24
      HENDRIK says:

      Terry yesterday I was of the opinion that it will retrace to 3800, now it seems 3780 is on the cards

  29. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:22
    Terry says:

    Very clear on the 1hr chart

  30. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:28
    George says:

    I am EUR/USD (small lot )short at 1.3730 now. Pair not moving above 1.3730.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:30
      Don (New Jersey USA) says:

      Feeling confident there as well

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:33
      Don (New Jersey USA) says:

      George where is your tp target at?

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:33
      George says:

      Off goes Bollinger band too. My target 1.370 then 1.3680.

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 08:38
        Don (New Jersey USA) says:

        Are you reshorting from there george to look for more downside profit.

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 08:41
          George says:

          I would really liky to see 1.3680 go again before reshorting. Today as we see might be very volatile. So we might need to be taking quick profits and reshort in short rallies. No major news coming right now so It will be up and down.

          • Comment left on:
            February 9, 2010 at 08:58
            Don (New Jersey USA) says:

            Thanks George I need to start learning more about other currency pairs.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:35
      hapeace says:

      too late for me

  31. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:34
    Tommy says:

    Many problems still continues on the eurozone as the president country is lacking leadership(Spain)

    0834 GMT [Dow Jones] Excitement over the EU Council meeting may have helped the dollar to “loosen its grip on FX majors,” says UniCredit. But, the bank adds, “the light data calendar will see investors largely stay put ahead of Wednesday’s highlights (EU Council meeting, BoE Inflation Report and Bernanke’s testimony before Congress).”

  32. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:34
    HENDRIK says:

    0828 GMT [Dow Jones] It looks like another “friendly day” for the USD, says Credit Agricole. The bank says further gains are likely to be impeded if equity markets decide it is time to recoup some of their recent losses. (NEH)

  33. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:35
    Tommy says:

    So today aswell really slow market days, investors waiting untill tomorrow…

  34. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:35
    HENDRIK says:

    0822 GMT [Dow Jones] Commerzbank reckons this could the “calm before the storm,” as market reactions to euro zone news is being dampened by positioning. “Greece-positive news is not having an effect as it is not sufficiently significant to question recently established EUR shorts. Greece-negative news is not having an effect as anybody who can is already positioned in that direction,” the bank says. Now, it adds, the market is waiting for important news on the EU summit “to force speculative market participants to review their positioning.” (NEH)

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:39
      George says:

      I do not think there is any positive news from Greece. Even if they bail out which would be a huge sum – I do not see how is it a positive for EUR in long term. It can give a breather but defintely EUR is in down trend.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:54
      Sakis says:

      We leve the days of correction look at weekly chart 2 years back.
      gigantic touble tops is forming
      Gartley 222 patern is forming with numbers in harmony
      XA, AB=CD buy at D the D is at 78,6 FIBO retracement and
      point direct at “1,000″ in 2 years period the time it much also for the euro recovery plans
      I have a study i dont know how to send it

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 08:57
        andrick says:

        so what do you think about the euro sakis? getting weaker? or we have reach the bottom of this pair (EURUSD)?

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 09:10
        HENDRIK says:

        Hi
        Go to forum/General. You can post it there. Copy the URL and paste it this forum

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 09:36
        Lisa says:

        Put it in the forum and put a link to it on this page.

  35. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:39
    Badniguel says:

    Good morning pippers. Looks like I missed a busy day yesterday. The keyboards were smokin’. Already today there are 60 posts. I will probably miss most of today as I have to find somewhere new to live and trade from.

    Have a great and profitable day everyone.

  36. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:44
    George says:

    There cable going down now.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:48
      George says:

      My Target 1 for cable 1.5585

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 08:57
        George says:

        Cable target achieved. Will take position only after news again.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 08:57
      Neil says:

      Hi George, excellent trade on cable so far, how did you establish the 15638 entry please?

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 09:01
        George says:

        Resistances on 30min and 1hr charts and both at the top of bollinger bands.

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 09:08
          Neil says:

          Thank you George.

  37. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:49
    George says:

    Susanne are you in.

  38. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 08:54
    George says:

    GBP trade balance news in 35 minutes. Expect some volatility before and after.

  39. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:02
    Ayman says:

    s&p500 futures up on the day! im expecting usd/jpy to maybe rally at US open! looking for longs in JPY crosses!!!

  40. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:04
    Ayman says:

    im one of those people who joined about almost two years ago, and dont write much! sry!

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 09:10
      George says:

      Welcome. This is the start. We can learn from each other.

  41. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:09
    Ayman says:

    im long gbp/jpy at 139.58

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 09:12
      andrick says:

      welcome…btw..any reason why u long on gbpjpy? i went out and reenter until the news released

  42. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:10
    andrick says:

    anyone still in (eurusd)?? i doubt the movement of the market…it’s going up again

  43. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:10
    Tommy says:

    0907 GMT [Dow Jones] Market position in EUR/USD has become extremely short of late and sentiment towards the euro is universally bearish notes UBS. However, the single currency has stopped reacting to negative news and near-term risk events are building against short positions. UBS says because of these factors it’s taken profit on its 1.4010 short position at 1.3725, although it remains bearish and will look to re-enter the trade either at a higher level, or on a break below 1.35. EUR/USD now at 1.3718. (GST)

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 09:12
      Tommy says:

      Closed again short on the eurusd after this news…

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 09:16
        George says:

        Tommy,
        BIS sold at EUR/USD at 1.3740 today. What do you think of that?

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 09:15
      andrick says:

      thanks tommy but i don’t understand…is tht mean eur might up to 1.4010??? before it goes down to 1.3725?

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 09:23
        Tommy says:

        they are taking profits out from their entries

  44. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:11
    Ayman says:

    ichimoko cloud on eur/usd 30 min chart shows cloud resistance at 1.3750, 1.3781 and 1.3823!!! looking to reset shorts at these levels!!!

  45. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:12
    HENDRIK says:

    On M15 we have a bullish engulfing pattern. I’m not shorting just yet

  46. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:13
    Ayman says:

    thanks george!

  47. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:20
    Tommy says:

    0918 GMT [Dow Jones] Hopes a EU summit on Thursday, to be attended by ECB President Trichet, will address the euro zone’s debt problems have lifted market sentiment and knocked the USD lower in places. As European stocks have headed higher, the EUR has bounced across the board. The USD is up at Y89.61 while the EUR is up at $1.3722. The GBP is down at $1.5588 after the BRC reported a 0.7% fall in retail sales last month, the worst January in 15 years.

  48. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:24
    George says:

    I am out of EUR/USD @ 1.3738. Will renter after news.

  49. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:24
    HENDRIK says:

    Usd/Chf broke the support

  50. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 09:27
    Tommy says:

    I will close all my positions, made enough pips from scalping for the moment,

    I will be back in Us markets hours or if alerts ring earlier

    Good luck!! God bless!

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 09:34
      George says:

      I am considering the same.

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