February 9, 2010 06:40

Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bulls Force Consolidation

By:

2-9-10

5:24a GMT – We had a PipHut record for number of comments yesterday at well over 300 (and I’m pretty sure Tommy cemented himself as Top PipHutter of the month only 9 days into February – see top 10 on the right nav). PipHut itself had over 7000+ views yesterday alone – imagine how many comments there would be if everyone participated. Probably too many!

From a signal standpoint our bearish bias yesterday yielded good pips yesterday if you were willing to be a bit more aggressive – I had resistance at 1.3680 (and drawn in at 1.3715 on the chart) and we had a few nice long wicks just touching that 1.3715 resistance and closing near 1.3680 (10:00 gmt) that gave a good shorting signal. First target was hit before the pair bounced back up and then dropped back down to the first target once again for another 30-40 pips.

Daily Outlook: Since then the pair has climbed in the early morning hours kicking a long wick at 1.3715 (which I shorted with a single lot). Looking at the hourlies we can see the pair has been in a bearish consolidation wedge for the past few days which bodes well for the short positions. The risk at this point is, of course, a larger correction perhaps up to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and resistance at 1.3850. While they would certainly offer an appealing area to short I’m looking for a more short-term drop.

Trading Idea: I took a very small position on last hour’s challenge of 1.3715 with the long wick. I will look to add to that position with a break of the bottom rising trend support (currently at 1.3660). From 1.3715 short targets are 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3615 and 1.3585. If we see a larger correction the next resistance area to look for shorts at is 1.3750.

(click to enlarge)

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314 Comments on "Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bulls Force Consolidation"
  1. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:32
    Matthew says:

    The words “Sike out”

  2. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:33
    Matthew says:

    Stop hunting at it’s finest

  3. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:34
    Matthew says:

    I bet allot of people just lost allot of money,, That bites…

  4. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:35
    Tommy says:

    Hope you shorts did get out in time

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 16:37
      Matthew says:

      Yeh I jump out at Marks 1.3715 level from the 745 area I was waiting for the price to be happy below the 1.3700 before getting in.. I was just about to sell win I saw a little to ambitious of a bounce back up..

  5. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:39
    Sunil says:

    should have got out at 1.47 :-( , apart from stophunting , is there any other reason for the spike?

  6. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:39
    Markus (Sweden) says:

    Oo

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 16:48
      Matthew says:

      I like that Markus lol:) Thats really all there is to say about that.. “Oo”

  7. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:40
    Matthew says:

    I just wonder what the heck happened.. I am spending time with the kiddies today so I haven’t been keeping up on the market news.. I am going to be calling it a day.. A little to volatile for my taste..

  8. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:43
    Ayman says:

    EU to help greece on a bilateral agreement – Almunia says!!!

  9. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:46
    Ayman says:

    BIS selling at 1.3776 area!! ichimoko resistance at 1.3781 and 1.3823 respectively!!!

  10. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:46
    Priya says:

    Did anybody re-entered at 1.375?

  11. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:47
    Tommy says:

    Thank God.. help me to stay of the market at the right time:)

    Waiting few minutes or more if 1.384 dosent break going again for short

    Or in xau 1084

  12. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:47
    Markus (Sweden) says:

    Im just gonna stay out of this. Have a good day/night

  13. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:48
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    now everyone believe that 1.3800 retracement we spoke about yesterday that was brutal

  14. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:49
    Ayman says:

    good luck all!!! talk tomorrow :)

    peace

  15. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:50
    Tommy says:

    1649 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD hit an intraday high at 1.3778 from 1.3659 late Mon on speculation that a bailout plan for fiscally stressed Greece is in the works

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 16:51
      Tommy says:

      Dos anyone have more any more info about this?? please post

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 16:55
        Matthew says:

        Oanda I just saying shorts are squeezed do to Greek optimism. Other than that I am still looking…

  16. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:54
    Priya says:

    What’s happening?

  17. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:56
    CADTEK IN TX says:

    Man this site is really getting good, hope Mark does not make it a pay site. I have been following since the beginning and its really grown, we are lucky thanks Mark.

  18. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 16:57
    Tommy says:

    Wall Street shares pushed higher on Tuesday on expectations that European officials would move to rescue Greece from its debt troubles.

    Reports that European leaders would meet to discuss how to contain a brewing debt crisis in Europe initially reassured investors, who had worried that Greece and other countries that use the euro, including Spain and Portugal, would be unable to pay back their swelling debt.

    But European shares lost some of their momentum after the ratings agency, Fitch, said that Greece’s medium-term outlook was cloudy and that Britain needed additional austerity measures to rein in its deficit..

    In recent days, the concerns over Europe have ricocheted through global markets as investors question whether other nations, including the United States, will face similar debt burdens after spending huge sums to stimulate their economies.

    Reports that Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, would leave a conference in Australia early to take part in the meeting helped to lift major indexes in Europe and the United States.

    Shares on Wall Street surged more than 1 percent shortly after the open but retreated in late morning trading. For some investors, the move higher was a welcome reprieve from a recent bout of steep losses, coming a day the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled below the 10,000 threshold.

    Since Greece’s troubles reached a flashpoint last week, all attention has been on the stability of the European financial system. Investors have tried to gauge how severely American financial institutions would be affected by foreign defaults. They remained concerned about the potential ripple effect for international credit markets, with memories of the havoc wreaked by the collapse of the United States housing market still fresh.

    Philip J. Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, said a bailout plan for Greece would provide a blueprint for rescue if other countries began to teeter on the brink of default.

    “Some of the overarching fears of global contagion will then begin to recede,” Mr. Orlando said. “Greece is first and foremost the touchstone.”

    In morning trading, the Dow rose 1.39 percent, or 137 points. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index climbed 1.22 percent, or 12.87 points, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq rose 1.1 percent, or 23.20 points.

    The upward momentum slowed as traders dissected the details of a report on business inventories. The Commerce Department said businesses reduced their inventories by 0.8 percent in December, raising concern on Wall Street that employers were too slowly restocking their shelves — a critical driver of growth for the manufacturing sector.

    In Europe, stocks rallied early in the day but stumbled as the end of the trading day approached. The FTSE 100 in London was flat, the CAC-40 in Paris was 0.29 percent or 10.19 points lower, and the DAX in Frankfurt decreased 0.18 percent or 8.50 points.

    Traders seemed to be using the downturn in the market — the Dow remains about 7 percent off of its highs in late January — as an opportunity to buy shares on the cheap.

    “Uncertainty breeds opportunity,” said Jeffrey D. Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James. “The market is pretty oversold.”

    Wall Street is in the midst of earnings season, when companies report fourth-quarter results; most companies have topped expectations. That has prompted a round of buying as investors seek to snap up shares of companies that have the potential to garner large revenues as the recovery takes hold.

    Shares of Coca Cola were up more than 3 percent after the beverage company reported better-than-expected earnings. The video game maker, Electronic Arts, fell nearly 10 percent after a lukewarm earnings forecast.

    The euro also made gains as investors grew more confident in the ability of several European countries — Spain and Portugal among them—to emerge from mountains of debt. The euro strengthened 0.5 percent against the dollar, hovering at $1.37.

  19. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:02
    Tommy says:

    1657 GMT [Dow Jones] Treasury prices tick down as a couple of news report lift optimism on possible EU rescue package for Greece and as investors set up for $40 bln three-year note sale at 1 p.m. EST. Reuters cites a source that says eurozone agreed in principle to aid Greece while FT Deutschland reports Germany is preparing an assistance package for Greece. The euro extends rally against the dollar and the yen as the U.S. stock market is rallying. DJIA up 165, EUR at $1.3778. Two-year note is 2/32 lower to yield 0.819% while the 10-year note is down 5/32 to yield 3.612%. The 30-year bond is down 4/32 to yield 4.53%.(MOZ)

  20. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:06
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    any short target suggestion?

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 18:04
      HENDRIK says:

      short? why not long?

  21. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:07
    Alvin says:

    The dollar is weakening, bulls in charge now! Shorts the dollar

  22. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:07
    Tommy says:

    For eurusd correction next resistance levels 1.385 and 1.391

  23. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:08
    Matthew says:

    I love trading,,, ain’t it fun…. Always something new everyday… I had my sell button up on my screen down @ 697 ready to click it for the 680-650 ” Wow ” that was close… I think I am going to go build my bike now.. Talk to ya in the morning…

    Good job Mr Tommy on finding that news Thank you once again…:)

  24. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:08
    Tommy says:

    1705 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD ticked above 1.38, to an intraday high of 1.3815 from 1.3659 late Mon, according to EBS via CQG on news reports of possible financial aid to Greece, which has been struggling under the weight of sovereign debt

  25. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:18
    Tommy says:

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The euro rose as much as 1.4% midday Tuesday in New York on media reports that financial aid to fiscally stressed Greece is in the works.

    The German government is putting together a rescue package for Greece, according to FT Deutschland, citing sources in the coalition government. Possible solutions include both bilateral support as well as internationally-coordinated assistance at the European Union level. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will inform CDU party leaders Wednesday over details.

    The common currency rose as high as $1.3838 on the back of that report.

    “Those reports are helping alleviate the near term concerns about the fiscal stability of Greece,” said Omer Esiner, senior market analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington.

    Around noon Tuesday in New York, the euro was at $1.3812 from $1.3659 late Monday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y89.58 from Y89.30, while the euro was at Y123.72 from Y121.97. The U.K. pound was at $1.5706 from $1.5598. The dollar was at CHF1.0630 from CHF1.0722.

    The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was 79.701 from 80.350.

    The euro snapped a four-day losing streak against the dollar as riskier assets rallied in anticipation of a meeting of European Union leaders Thursday. The euro’s advance was triggered during Asian trading hours on talk that the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was leaving a central bankers gathering in Sydney earlier than planned to attend the meeting.

    However, a spokeswoman for the European Central Bank clarified that Trichet had a long-standing commitment to attend the meeting.

    “Better sentiment towards the euro zone is helping the rebound in risk appetite,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. “It’s a question of timing, too. These rumors (of a bailout for Greece) came on the back of an extended period of weakness in the euro and equities.”

  26. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:23
    Tommy says:

    1723 GMT [Dow Jones] A number of major currencies are extending their gains vs USD in the wake of positive developments in the Greek debt situation, with EUR recent touching a new session high at 1.3840 vs USD, GBP recording a high at 1.5746 and AUD/USD at 0.8794, while USD/CAD has touched a session low at 1.0647, according to EBS via CQG.

  27. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:25
    Tommy says:

    Entered short @ 1.3837 target only 50 pips

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 17:26
      Matthew says:

      I can’t leave, must stay and watch I really want to see a move back down…

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 17:31
      Tommy says:

      closed no profits no losses

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 17:40
        Matthew says:

        Cool I was worried about you and that trade…. It’s to close to 850 not to hit it.. but anything can happen,,,

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 17:43
        Tommy says:

        on gold I had better luck! 75 pips in minutes shorting

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 17:44
          Matthew says:

          sweet, I can’t believe that last move down.. Holy cow

        • Comment left on:
          February 9, 2010 at 18:03
          ZAR says:

          Hey Tommy, you still in Gold?
          I short at 1081
          What do you think?

  28. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:33
    Susanne says:

    Wow, left my office to get some water and came back to mayhem. I’ve never seen the market move that fast.

  29. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:33
    David W says:

    3862 decent resistance

  30. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:42
    Matthew says:

    Holy cow, this is just to much…. I guess “anything can happen” is an understatement…

  31. Avatar of piphut
    Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:47
    piphut says:

    Nothing too exciting. I warned a move to 1.3750 could happen and that resistance (plus the daily trend resistance – blue trend on chart) are holding and provided a nice area to hide a stop.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 17:53
      Matthew says:

      Just all this whipsaw action has me out for the moment.. I can’t remember the last time I saw this much volatility.. I have to say it is fun to watch but do not know how to get in on the big moves.. I can think but not that fast :)

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 19:23
      Lisa says:

      Mark,

      You meant 1.3850, right?

  32. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:48
    Matthew says:

    Man I hope all of you guys are safe and sound and didn’t get zapped: Lisa, Hendrick, Carlos, Don, George, are you all here….

  33. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:55
    Fábio says:

    Bulls fighting back?

  34. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:55
    Matthew says:

    Now reports are saying that it is not confirmed,,, the Greek bailout…

  35. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 17:58
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    Weird day PIpStar’s luckily i was in with that voloatile move. Speculation is a strong decision maker in this market. It takes heart to trade forex correction euro was so oversold. But that 1.3800 retracement definitely made a stand today no one could’ve predicted that after it dropped from1.3750 earlier 10 1.3690 then back up to 1.3840 now back at 1.377. Whoa right position at the right time is all I can say. Trichet and greece’s aid documents were unfounded if words are not power I don’t know what is. Who you gotta love this market just use stops and avoid margin calls.

  36. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:00
    Fábio says:
  37. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:04
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    going back up again you have to be kidding me is this eur/usd rigged or something lol

  38. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:08
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    Seems like the Bulls are still in charge Fabio I dont know what to expect at this point in time?

  39. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:09
    ZAR says:

    Anyone in short now?
    This would be a great level Mark??

  40. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:11
    Fábio says:

    I was thinking to place an order… But the market is still in clouds…

    Something like:
    Sell: 1.3803
    SL: 1.3835
    TP: 1.3750 ~ 1.3700

    What do you people say?

  41. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:12
    HENDRIK says:

    In the light of the current sentiment I’m changing my outlook to 3850 (in that region) before Thursday
    _____________________________________________________________

    I’m not saying it will do it tomorrow, but 1.4000 is on the cards

  42. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:12
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    Wow they made a story up and the euro is still fighting I’m puzzled anyone else out there or has this 1.3800 retracement frieghtend you.

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 18:19
      Matthew says:

      That is whats got me confused a little. Now that it was found to be not true I would imagine more bears would show up, but I am sure they will come in,, but probably not all at once though. And Confucius was his name-O

  43. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:13
    Tommy says:

    TORONTO (Dow Jones)–The euro retreated below the $1.38 level Tuesday afternoon after a German government spokesman denied reports that a decision on a bailout package for Greece is close.

    The euro had rallied in earlier trading and remains higher versus the greenback, but it has pared some of its gains after the German government issued its clarification to the reports of an aid package to Greece.

    The single currency had reached a session high at $1.3840, after FT Deutschland reported that the German government was putting together a rescue package for Greece, citing sources in the German coalition government.

    “”Everybody was on board to bail out Greece 20 minutes ago and now we’re back on euro weakness again,” said Jacob Oubina, a currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, N.J.

    In early afternoon trading Tuesday, the euro was at $1.3790 from $1.3659 late Monday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y89.57 from Y89.30, while the euro was at Y123.55 from Y121.97. The U.K. pound was at $1.5705 from $1.5598. The dollar was at CHF1.0636 from CHF1.0722.

    The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was 79.775 from 80.350.

  44. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:13
    ZAR says:

    i think sl at least 1.3860?

  45. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:14
    Tommy says:

    1813 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR has been edging back towards $1.3800 in the last few minutes as trading remains volatile and unsettled amid rapid developments relating to possible German aid to Greece. While Germany made no decisions on potential emergency aid for Greece, members of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union’s parliamentary party will meet Wed to discuss emergency financial support for Greece, a government official told Dow Jones. EUR currently around 1.3790. (DBC)

  46. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:23
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    Well the euro is done with momentum intil the london session. I’m staying in. For some reason I get fair help from the asia session. Who know today though what will happen. Now I see why its hard to tade forex and have a job. {Caution} (Use your stops folks!!!!)

  47. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:27
    Don (New Jersey USA) says:

    Bulls look out of steam now LOL hope no more fairytales are told again LOL!!! I am taking my profits before the London session.

  48. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:30
    Tommy says:

    By Laurence Norman
    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz on Tuesday brushed aside the debt market pressures facing Greece, saying they reflected irrational investors “hyperventilating” over a country whose fiscal situation is in hand.

    In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Stiglitz, who is acting as an informal advisor to the Greek government, said Prime Minister George Papandreou had adopted a smart plan for paring back the debt.

    “If anyone looks at the (debt) program they have put forward, it’s actually a very thoughtful program and a comprehensive program that doesn’t try to overpromise,” he said. “It’s not actually clear to me that there is any fundamental problem other than a speculative attack.”

    Faced with spiraling borrowing costs, Greece’s Socialist government has presented plans to the European Commission that aims to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product by 2012 from 12.7% in 2009.

    The European Union backed those plans last week but has so far resisted committing to intervene on Greece’s side if the financial pressures intensify. However, there were reports Tuesday that European Union leaders were working on some kind of support measures.

    Those reports soothed market tensions, reducing Greece’s borrowing costs and the cost of insuring investors against a possible default on Greek debt. However, the yield on 10-year Greek bonds remained some 3.15 percentage points above German bund yields.

    Stiglitz said the EU should make explicit its support for Greece and other countries, like Spain and Portugal, facing debt market pressures. He said the EU could consider some kind of contingency fund that could be tapped in an emergency by member states.

    “I think the euro zone now realizes this is not an issue of Greece alone. It’s an issue for the EU because of what’s at stake in Spain, Portugal and possibly….other members,” Stiglitz said. “Europe has to make a commitment to support these countries and there are a variety of forms which it could take,” he said.

    Stiglitz, who is in London to promote his book on the financial crisis and sat down Monday with Prime Minister Gordon Brown, was scathing in his assessment of the recent behavior of investors.

    He said debt market investors “are in the process of hyperventilating,” and he described the recent price moves in the credit default swap market, which measures the cost of insuring against default, as “absurd.”

    However he said that with irrationality gripping debt markets, the failure of Europe’s leaders to stem speculative pressures could have a high price.

    “Unfortunately, I’ve seen enough of this kind of pattern to know that they can strike anywhere. So nobody’s immune,” he said.

    Stiglitz’ attacks on investor behavior are nothing new for an economist who has long criticized orthodox Washington consensus policies and pointed up flaws in free-market theories. However, the former World Bank chief economist and winner of the 2001 Nobel prize for economics, offered kinder words for another of his traditional bete noires – the International Monetary Fund.

    Stiglitz said the more relaxed conditions the IMF is imposing on lending programs these days means Greece should not close off the option of approaching the IMF for funding if needed.

    “I think that things have changed. Ten years ago my view would have been quite different,” he said.

    Stiglitz acknowledged his role in advising the Greek government has not been central. He said he had offered Papandreou “strategic” advise on economic policy ahead of the October election, which the Socialist party won handily. Now, Stiglitz said he stays in touch with the Greek leader and members of his team but is not in daily contact.

    And Stiglitz admitted that, at a time when Greece’s government is trying to woo bond market investors, it’s probably for the best that he keeps his distance.

    “That’s why I think it’s good that he (Papandreou) has gotten a whole range of people involved and is not relying on just one perspective,” he said. “That’s one of the marks of a good leader I think.”

  49. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:32
    Tommy says:

    1831 GMT [Dow Jones] Germany has made no decisions on potential emergency aid for Greece, a govt spokesman said Tue. Govt spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said he “rejected the accounts from coalition sources that a decision over aid for Greece has practically been made.” The FT Deutschland reported on its Web site Tue that the German govt is working on a package for Greece, citing a senior lawmaker from Chancellor Merkel’s center-right coalition. The euro extended it earlier gains on that report and various follow-up headlines, but gave back some of the spike higher after the statement from Wilhelm. EUR/USD still up sharply on the day, now at $1.3787 from $1.3659 late Mon, according to EBS via CQG. (RJF)

    • Comment left on:
      February 9, 2010 at 18:44
      Don (New Jersey USA) says:

      What do you interpret all this info as do you believe we still are in for a downside momentum or do you believe the bottom came last week for the dollar?

      • Comment left on:
        February 9, 2010 at 19:27
        Tommy says:

        Now we are sliding south smoothly. But Tomorrow its gonna be a crazy day.

  50. Comment left on:
    February 9, 2010 at 18:34
    Fábio says:

    another doji on 30m charts, I’m going in with:
    Sell: 1.3800
    SL: 1.3830
    TP: 1.3750 ~ 1.3700

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