2-3-10
4:23a GMT – Covered short from yesterday at break-even after it did nothing for the majority of the day. We’ve seen some bullish pressure in the past few days, though that is to be expected with the extremely bearish moves we’ve had lately. The EUR/USD needs to cool off some oversold levels to clear room for another stab downward.
Daily Outlook: 1.3925 and 1.3880 should provide some support for those looking for longs, though I will sit back and wait for a better short to develop a bit further up. Overall we are still in a very bearish primary trend (pull up a daily chart and look where we were in early December – we’ve dropped over 1000 pips!) which means big money has been pushing the pair down for a month now and will continue to support dollar rallies in the future. 1.4030 is the 50% retracement of the 1/25-1/31 drop, the 23.6% retracement of the larger 1/13-1/31 drop and was strong support on 1/20 so this area should give us some solid resistance. If nothing else its break will signal a larger move to the upside.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is to look to sell in the area of 1.4030 resistance (see significance above), preferably on candlestick signal. Short targets from 1.4030 are 1.4000, 1.3960, 1.3925 and 1.3890. Very short term traders might look for long opportunities in the 1.3925 and 1.3885 areas though I would consider this a riskier trade.
(click to enlarge)
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Another possibility for a very short-term trade is a long on a break of 1.3980. Prices have been flirting with this resistance all day and usually when we get a nice line of resistance like that a break will produce a pop and signal further movement, opening the way to 1.4030.
Basicly todays signal is sell anywhere from 1.388 up;) After proper candle. Don’t take this literaly.
I like your term very short term traders! Sound as sweet as Pip:)
That would be sweet to get a move like that and then a killer move back down (with me on board of course). I also BE on the trade today. So in the morning I hope to wake to some good movement… Talk to ya in the morning Mark.
if it reaches 1.3976, to 1.3997 at 1300hrs. then i dont know if i should buy or sell. it is very hard to say at this point cause there isnt any moves.
hi mark, good nights, i’m watching USD-CHF i can see a support line in 4H and the price is in rebound point, what do you think about it, i’m bullish
Mark,
I was thinking about this all nite yst when i was reviewing my journal but when you didn’t mention it on ur daily outlook, i thought maybe i was wrong. I’m so glad that was your first post, because earlier the pair had broken the H1 trendline, and now the H4 trendline is also compromised and heading for the daily. A long above 1.3980 is suitable for me. thanks again el presidente. Happy piping!
0810 GMT [Dow Jones] The prospect of a drop in EMU services PMI in January will not help EUR/USD, says Calyon. Aside from the Greek debt situation, the bank says equity markets have also encouraged the euro to slip. However, if the S&P can stay above the 1070 lows seen earlier in the week and the EU manages to cap concern over fiscal policy, EUR/USD may find support at 1.3900, the bank says. EUR/USD is at 1.3974.
Have a look at Gbp/Usd daily for a possible target of 1.6260 resistance
Hello Hnedrik
Might be soon oversold , thinking it will stop or turn or slow 1.608 ,(fibo 38.2)
Hi Buddy
Yes you might be right. I do have the daily in mind so it’s not a short term trade. The stoch is now at 37 and should it move to 80 I think it might be a good trade:)
Sorry about miss spelling your name friend!
Starting morning with too much cafe
I will look it more closely! Do you trade xau also, looking of shorting in fibo 61.8 % @ 1128 area or little under, possible 300 pips fast.
I entered short eurusd @ 1.402 , going for morning run and don’t wanna miss the rally
No Aux for me at the moment, maybe later:)
fix not oversold , overbought
SL smashed on the 9.28 candle !!! Oh well will wait for the next one …
I’m Long @ 1.3980 for a small t/p @ 1.4010.
Olayinka,
This seem to be a good trade for you. I am glad to see you back on the pip horse and riding.
Im still as always going Long… @ 1.3950 loose TP .. see where it goes..
there is a chance of resistance break.. and also reaching 100.0 fibo..
its a good day
Yesterday I posted 4000 might be on the cards but now it would seem it’s 4080
I hope not, could be forming shooting star(thumbs up), outside bollingers, lets see, I have my SL on the 1.408
don’t want it to get so high
Hey man yesterday u wanted to talk about the space and i left what about it ? you mean the space in the forum? and what about your zig zag ?
“u wanted to talk about the space and i left what about it ? you mean the space in the forum?”
Mark assured me that hard drive space is not a problem.
“and what about your zig zag ?” No problem with that. On the H1 it looks like a bullish consolidation/engulfing pattern — so I was just wondering whether we are not at a turn of the market.
Hi Mark,
Is that a shooting star on the 1hr @ 10:00? If so I did not see it show on the candlestick alert.
It’s not shooting star unless or until followed by confirmation , bear candle
xauusd made a model shooting star @ 10 , eurusd , DJ charts are more than similar in the long run.
OK. Thanks Tommy!
European Union : Retail Sales
Released on 2/3/2010 10:00:00 GMT For Dec, 2009
Prior/ Consensus/ Actual
Month over Month -1.2 %/ 0.4 %/ 0.0 %
Year over Year -4.0 %/ -2.4 %/ -1.6 %
little improvement, for the eur…bullish??
Morning everybody, how are we all doing? bulls seems do be doing well.
anyone has entered the EUR/USD pair? it has reached the resistance line and noe it seems like bouncing down
From the M30 to H4 the candles are outside the bollinger and are bound to continue upwards. I’m long with a target at 4080
I am still short from 1.402
and xau short @ 1121
looks good, negative divergence keep flashing, as soon as this wedge breaks, I will try to sell the back kiss, should drag eu along
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=211&mode=view
Thanks David!
nice chart!
Tommy,
Are you scalping your current trades?
Hi Lisa
no ,I am too busy baby sitting:)
I have been trying to make my scalping system ,named VEST(very short term trading)hahah , has still lot of flaws…
I entering position for the rest of the week(hope)
Outside upper bollinger band means over bought which = time to sell, which means price will fall, no ?
Hendrik,
If outside the upper bollinger band, should this mean it is overbought and should be bouncing off the upper band which would mean a sell?
Hi Lisa
Sorry I was picking grapes.
Together with a bounce off and a candle signal will be your best signal I would say. One of my lessons learned last month was not to enter a trade say short if the signal is outside the upper band. On so many entries I came out with a loss. I’ve scan back to show you an example but could not find one, maybe the Bollinger change slightly afterwards. And yes this one didn’t pan out as usual so I rather miss it than be sorry.
For over bought and under sold conditions rather chech the stoch and macd
Please explain to me what the 1/25-1/31 drop means
days JAN25 – JAN31,
stronger usd, drop on the price
Thank you Tommy
NEWS 12GMT
2:00 PM wk1/29, 2010
US:MBA Purchase Applications Purchase Index – W/W Change Last week -3.3%
ACTUAL=10.3%
One bull for the usd, little bearish for eurusd
Back home!
I think for all, just becareful of the trade right now. It’s US data vs EUR data and the one which has more positive news will win the battle.
Very positive data for EUR:
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)
Next up:
USD ADP Employment Change (JAN)
USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JAN)
Cheers!
Inside on ISM non-manu facturing comp. more positive than expected!
Ah huh! Looks like a good shorting opportunity if that pans out true!
looks like stick sandwich pattern, -> bearish
News coming…shortly
United States : ADP Employment Report
Released on 2/3/2010 1:15:00 PM For Jan, 2010
ADP employment: prior -84 M/M change (000)
actual -22 M/M change (000)
Positive change, bearish+++
Thank you God! For everything you know what.
Tommy,
You shorted?
yep! from 1.402 (60pips)and xau from 1121(90pips)& counting!
targets last weeks bottoms!
Hmm.. better than expected USD ADP Employment Change (JAN). Doesn’t seem to move the market too much though.
Ops, spoke too early! LOL!
Good morning everyone. “poop” Well looks like I’m late for the party.
Never too late. 1.5 hours more to the next “party”.
Cheers!
Hey Brandon, I hope you where able to jump on that pip train. Your right, I don’t think someone can never late for a forex party, being that is always moving.:)
No pip train for me tonight i guess.
Will be sleeping early tonight for a long day at work tomorrow!
You guys trade well!
Bummer Brandon, I hope you can at least get some pips or have good dreams about pips… They will still be here for you after work..
Good Morning Everyone!!!
I hope everyone is finding some pips. I am just getting on board and feel a lot better today. I hate I miss the 1.4030 drop.
David, did you get into the goldtrain!
Brandon,News have a tendency to take effect +-30 min. LOL
…Thank you Mark, your daily signal ,makes points me allmost allways to right direction, with G’s help ofcourse.
Who’s G
cuidance, wisdom, allmighty…
I wish, I should have stayed in my short, maybe it will retrace in the next few hours , but I did catch 35 pips in eu, nice trading Tommy!
thinking of shorting more, next entry short @ 1.395 ! pokerterm all in!
Hi Mark another good call as usual !! :)
It doesn’t get much better than that, I just wish I had been awake for it :)
Mark, your kidding me, did you miss it. I was sawing logs when it all happened. I had even posted last night, how cool it would be but with me on board,lol:)
usually I put alerts to wake me up but I was tired last night
I’m sorry you missed it, if it makes you feel any better knowing your not alone, I missed it to. I was tired as well, some of my friends thought it was a good idea to go play basket ball. I thought I was going to die ( I’m to fat for that stuff ).. Well anyway, we’ll get pips on the next go round.
Mark,
I’m sorry you missed it. I missed it also because I was sleep as well and full of medication. However, I do live to trade another day.
Sorry Mark for missing that, it was a sweet ride. U pointed me to the right direction. Thanks.
Mark, Mark, he’s our man if he can’t do no one can, Yippee, hooray,lol:) Sorry I just had to let a little excitement out.. Thanks Mark for what you do man….:)
I always get excited too much when getting into the best rides!
Had a huge risk, I used too big lotsizes.
Yeh, it does kind a bring out the kid in me a little. Now the risk part, that’s when money management come into play, I guess if you are within your risk ratio it’s all good. I never risk more than 2-3% of my trading balance, and only deposit left overs from my bank account…( after me, savings and my bill collectors are paid ) so if I lose it, it won’t kill me.
yesterday the market I enter to buy the market and moved 201, this morning, I took long position with the breaking of the resistance and it moved 21 pip to my resistant,
Now with the resistance and the fibo level the market seems to go down because my stoc comfirmed in 4hrs chart that the maarket is in over bought area.
so I’m looking for better signal to go short
News in 4 minutes
News not much change…but positive bearish
United States : ISM Non-Mfg Index
Released on 2/3/2010 3:00:00 PM For Jan, 2010
Prior/Consensus/Consensus Range/Actual
Composite Index – Level 50.1 /51.0 /49.0 to 52.0 /50.5
Actual 50.5 , so right in the consensus range.
do u think it will strengthen the USD?
Not this too much but read the financial times: Greece issue, germany strike, eurozone retail sales disapointment…only bad news
usd: jobless, housing +++, markets ++
overall picture on fundementals , Bearish for the eurusd
There is still room in the gold train(xauusd) next stop 300-400 pips down
what currency is xau?
What’s the margin requirement for 1 standard lot of xauusd?
depend on your lev. if 1:100 but normally same as on the chart on dollars so now for ex. 1114.7 $ for one lot shorting, of course min. on the account balance for trading xau recommed over 50 000 $.
Hej Markus
xau is GOLD precious metal(pa svenska guld)
xag is SiLVER “
Tommy, the daily pivot is holding @1110 so far
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=214&mode=view
David,
I noticed;) , might break soon tried 3 times for now, eurusd will now have to do the dragging. 4th time does the charm( good for scalping 50 pips up and down
United States : EIA Petroleum Status Report
Released on 2/3/2010 3:30:00 PM For wk1/29, 2010
Crude oil inventories (weekly change)
prior -3.9 M barrels
actual 2.3 M barrels
last news for the day
Markettalk:
1532 GMT [Dow Jones] The new Greek austerity plan, endorsed by the European Commission earlier Wednesday, does not signal the end of the euro’s woes, says BNP Paribas. Doubt among investors that Greece can really deliver the cuts it needs, and mounting concerns over Portugal, mean that fiscal problems in euro zone countries are set to continue. Bank sees EUR/USD sinking towards 1.30. Now close to the low for the day at 1.3939. (KJM)
1531 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD hit an intraday low, at 1.3928 from 1.3964 late Tue, while USD/JPY hit an intraday high at 91.11 from 90.37, according to EBS via CQG. USD is gathering strength on a batch of generally positive US economic data, including a better-than-expected ADP jobs report and a ISM non-manufacturing index that showed improvement, though it came in slightly below expectations. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, also hit an intraday high, at 79.263 from 79.000 late Tue. (BMD)
Mark,
when will the signals for the pairs be coming out?
Signal for today is out (above) and is about 120 pips in the profit if you got in. Or are you talking about the rollout of signals for all the pairs?
Mark,
i meant the signals for the other pairs
David sorry for the slow, slow response here. The signals themselves and the analysis is ready to go and could be accessed now but I have to do some website/backend stuff before they are released and that is taking longer than expected.
They should be out this month :)
Have we hit a possible bottom here at 1.3900? Although i wouldn’t go against the current bearish trend it looks like move downwards is running out of steam. Any comments?
Third target has been hit on today’s signal and trade is about 120 pips in the profit. We might see some stalling at 1.3900 and it is a good time to cover (or at least close part of your position) if you are in the trade.
Is that a reversed head and shoulder on the 30 min chart? If not, why not?
Lisa, what are your thoughts on why it is or isn’t? If you could upload a graph to the forum to accompany your thoughts that would be great
Mark,
Please see the attached file of my possible reversed head n shoulder. Just wanted to know if I was looking at the correct thing. Sorry, it took me awhile to get the file attached. I got errors that the files was too large to attached. I changed from BMP, JPEG to GIF. It finally took my GIF format file.
Thanks
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=219&mode=view
MATT, BRANDON & CARLOS
It’s time to update your journals!!
btw what happened to Charles?
Whatzzz up Hendrik my friend, I will do an entry here in just a bit. I am covered with dirt from my backyard work… I am looking at this nice little consolidation we have going at the moment…. Looks like one of those bearish hooks thingy mcbobers…At least on the 30 min chart…
I was looking at the same thing, not sure i want to get in though, we already hit our third TP, I think I might stay out.
Important News
The Major problem in eurozone is not in the Greece, Portugal ,or Ukraine but in SPAIN its “catastrofic collapse”.. more about this searcing right now, just saw the news.
And the steel factories on the eurozone report , big losses. Strikes in Germany and Finland.
Forget about this! Did not find any more info about the “Spain Collapse”! Rumor, The spanish news really sucks.
Tommy,
I think Spain was a rumor which started Euro slide this morning but it is clarified as a rumor already. Moody’s has denied placing Spain on review for a downgrade.
Just posted on the Spanish news, can you tell me were to find the rumor or news or more about it because the spanish goverment Zapatero is really quite crazy, awful, stupid little jerk as they say … I am quite quite neutral to this. But when you live here it affect some things
thanks
Hi Mark,
My first trade went quite well today, but i missed out on the major trade on the resistance level(1.4023) narrowly and wasn’t sure/confident/patient enough when i wanted to go back short again at 1.4005.These misses are getting one too many.
Please can you narrate how you enter your trades when your signals are hit. For example, when you say candlestick confirmations, do u place the trade after it is formed or in anticipation that it will, or when the price just reaches that resistance point like it hit (1.4023) today. I think i need to understand that area very well.
I would also like you to explain how you determine the amount of lots to trade and how you close a portion of that when in profit using MT4. I usually calculate the amount of lots based on my account size, risk(%)and stop loss size.
Do we live the days of correction ?
Euro and its Machiavellian turn.
Mediterranea is bleeding,
deficits all over Europe !
“Whom will rise this interests”.
I dont like to be fundamental.
Do you measure ? piersing the 38,2 again
and then back.
We correct in general
Uncle Eliot and grandpa Fibonacci told me
so,
Good night !Here 23.23PM
Thanks for the Day, Closed trades 135 pips , and 65 pips from the second entry at 1.395. And scalping gold. Another great day.
Did put some PO’s for the next night at 1.395 and 1.394 and 1.3925, larger to smaller.
Good job Tommy, Good night. talk to ya later:)