2-23-10
3:20a GMT – Watching the forex markets yesterday was about as exciting as watching paint dry. I had three open trades ( none on the EUR/USD signal) all day that hardly moved. Apparently market participants thought the pair had achieved a fair value for the time being and we had equal amounts buying/selling to keep the pair in the tight 1.3650-1.3580 range.
Daily Outlook: Given that nothing has actually changed since yesterday, and 1.3650 held for the second time in 2 weeks I am still looking to sell with the trend as my primary trade. 1.3650 will provide my first resistance level and the falling trend line as my second. We do have the German confidence sentiment being released around 09:00 gmt, so be weary of that (higher than estimated confidence is generally taken as Euro positive – more on that at the forex calendar).
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short from 1.3650 (with candlestick confirmation) with targets at 1.3620, 1.3585 and 1.3555. The falling trend resistance will provide a nice place to hide my stop-loss. Secondary trade is to look for a false breakout above 1.3650 to be capped by the falling trend resistance (currently at1.3680). Finally a break above 1.3700 should produce a challenge of 1.3790 and a break below 1.3580 should open up 1.3545 and 1.3450.
(click to enlarge)
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February 23, 2010 at 16:13
thank god for fib levels! this movement in the 23 – 38 fib range is the best trading i’ve had all day.
February 23, 2010 at 16:24
anyone think it’ll break below 23 fib?
February 23, 2010 at 16:42
Mark, when do you adjust your fib levels? immediately after a new high or low had been reached or do you wait for the next day
February 23, 2010 at 16:44
Mark BTW nice signals today, thanks
February 23, 2010 at 17:16
wow, is it another rally?
hope to make some pips
February 23, 2010 at 17:17
bahh, not really, I thought, but.. it isn’t
February 23, 2010 at 17:18
at least 1.3535 has been broken, looking for good support level.. 1.3462?
what do you think mark?
February 23, 2010 at 17:20
yes
February 23, 2010 at 17:31
I made around 170 pips today in total. That’s all for today. Good night everybody. See you tomorrow.
February 23, 2010 at 17:39
congratulation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I bet you made USD1700 if 1 pip = USD10 :)…yummmm..nice bucks huh…
February 23, 2010 at 17:43
I would be glad to do that, unfortunately, I am trading mini lot at the moment. Soon I will upgrade my account, if I continue getting good pips. Wish me luck Andrick and all piphutters.
February 23, 2010 at 17:36
i need an advice, is it still safe to re enter EURUSD? based on mark’s analysis it suppose to break until 1.3450. Anyone still on this pair?
February 23, 2010 at 17:46
I am out of the market now. But would like to re-enter at a higher price. Also waiting to short GBP/USD @ 1.550 zone. I closed USD/CAD but want to re-enter at lower price (long @ 1.045 zone).
February 23, 2010 at 17:51
I’m short since the break at 1.3535
February 23, 2010 at 17:46
Give me a break :(
February 23, 2010 at 17:47
It just keeps toying with that 500-510 level
February 23, 2010 at 17:59
LOL I am with you there :)
February 23, 2010 at 18:03
I kinda wanted to see a break of this level then a little kick back for a short down to the 460 level.. I’ll catch another if it presents itself..
February 23, 2010 at 18:25
That is all that matters, I am glad you got your pips for the day.. I’ll talk to ya in the morning.. :) Goodnight and sweet dreams;)
February 23, 2010 at 18:28
I just deleted that whole thread.
Note to all: Most of the regular piphutters know that A) there is no broker promotion that can take place on these pages. B) Absolutely no racist or derogatory comments, no exception. IF YOU WANT TO DISCUSS SOMETHING ABOUT A BROKER, YOU NEED TO GO TO THE FORUMS.
http://piphut.com/forum/
I will ban you for either, and any other reason I see fit.
Please don’t respond to this comment either. I want to trade, not think about this.
February 23, 2010 at 18:44
Thank you to everyone who has welcomed me today i didnt expect to get such a good response. I would like to ask a question on how realistic it is to trade FX as a job, ooking at the calculator on this site i see that if i generated on average 20 pip/day then this would equate to a very rewarding income! However in memebers of the communities experience how realistic is this outlook? Im assuming also that it wil not be a walk in the park and would expect to put the hours in monday to friday (I work monday to sat 51 weeks a year at the mo!!!)Any comments or advice would be much eppreciated! I see from the charts on the spread betting account i use that the range for today is around 13499 – 13689 congaradulations to anyone that pipped most of these!! : )
February 23, 2010 at 18:56
If you have a full time job, I would not become recommend a forex trader leaving the job. Forex could be additional income at any time. Trust me most of us here get into forex thinking the same that if we can earn 20 pips a day that would be enough but most of us know that we have burnt our hands by entering forex. It is very difficult to time a trade. Forex is very risky and needs training, patience and control. You can loose your savings in no time. So if I were you I will have a steady income flow and learn forex by looking at charts till you better understand the trading techniques.
February 23, 2010 at 19:00
Thanks George,
I think my plan would be to keep my business as i can spend time in the morning and evenings looking and learning I know what you mean about timing a trade its really really hard!! And i have alrady lost a bit of money getting carried away – which has taught me a lot!!
Cheers for your advice
February 23, 2010 at 19:17
another thing you can consider doing is opening a demo account. brokers usually offer these free of charge
February 23, 2010 at 19:28
I do not think to be a full time trader (or trading forex as a main job) is a good idea. However, If you are really a profesional forex trader, why not?
I thought the same last year when i started earning in average 80 pips per day. I doubled my capital in just 10 days.I quit my job as a software engineer with Motorola. A few months later, I received my master degree letter of offer from the UK’s university and i was thinking to turn it down because i was so confident with my ability in trading that time. But after i received a few advices/recommendations from my friends and family i lastly accepted to futher my study. Good thing because i accepted the my study offer because i lost quite a lot in last month (because i was so greedy. Now am doing trading just as part timer. And still think to be a part timer is the best. However, if you really a profesional forex trader i would not say NO.
February 23, 2010 at 20:55
Hi Andrick
Thank you for your comments, hope you are well into your masters degree, how are you finding the uk? I’m going to take it real easy looking and learning i think!! I have a cafe which is quite a good place to sit and trade when im not rushing about serving customers! It was greed that got me too as i started with a small ammout and got drawn in by the profits, i could of got out a number of times with a 25% loss but dug my heels in convinced i would come out on top – how wrong i was and a valuble lesson learnt. Hope that this site will point me in the right direction and keep me on the straight and narrow : )
February 23, 2010 at 18:56
What in the world happened to the Loonie, There must have been news or something come out, I flip the page and saw nothing but UP…
February 23, 2010 at 19:05
Hi Graham B,
If you listen to Mark and follow some of the advice from PipHutters, Yes you can trade fulltime but please keep your demo for 2-3 months and follow basic rules and you will make it. Your mind must be “right” as well. I am still keeping my dayjob for another month but had been trading demo and now live. I know what it feels like to loose a $1000 and noe I am extra careful. Welcome
February 23, 2010 at 19:23
Thanks Louis,
That is a good plan i have a demo account however the charts a bit hard to use at the mo as there is a competition on, hopefully when they finish they will be back to normal so i can get to work following the advice that is given here, i think my first task is to become comfortable working out accurate support and resistance levels and then move on from there?
February 23, 2010 at 19:07
Hello Mark,
I have this posted on the forum.
Would you give me some feedback and comments on the trend lines I have drawn for USD/CAD? I want to know if I drew the trendlines correctly and I wanted to know if this trend is still down or has it changed over being an uptrend. As you can see, what the down trend line I have shown was broken and I don’t know if now it’s considered in an uptrend. OR has it just breeched my down trend resistance line and I just use old resistances until I get back at the top? At what point do I say the trend is now up?
PLEASE HELP.
I am just trying to see if I am on the right track.
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=246&mode=view
February 23, 2010 at 19:21
Looks good to me Lisa. I consider that trend line broken and the USDCAD now as “looking for drops to buy on”.
A couple notes:
1) Telling about the trend is the fact that important resistance at 1.0526 was broken. With that break I am a bit more confident in the uptrend.
2) On your rising uptrend I would move the line to the lows (you have it on the bottom of the candle currently) to match your falling trend line (highs).
February 23, 2010 at 20:06
Mark,
Thanks and I moved the rising trend line to the lows. Now I will go back and review some major support & resistance lines on the 4 hr and daily chart. Put some fibo’s on the chart and also I will place my pivot points.
I have already been watching the movement on these other pairs and will soon see if I can plan a trade for this pair.
Thanks again.
February 23, 2010 at 19:33
I watched paint dry yesterday and have been on the road today missing all the pips today. Cheers to all who earned pips. Mark – Sorry you had to deal with a jerk today. We can bring in the muscle if necessary!
February 23, 2010 at 19:38
Hey Tony and his wiffle ball bat can take care of business. Sorry, what you said reminded me of the Far Side cartoon where the two mafia guys holding wiffle ball bats have that other guy on the wall threatening him lol:)
February 23, 2010 at 20:11
Love the far side. When the cows are riding in a car passing people standing in a pasture and the cows say yakiddy yak yak at the people
February 23, 2010 at 20:46
Im swedish so maybe thats why i have to ask… what does it mean? “yakiddy yak yak”?
I know it from an old song as well, i dont know the name of it though.
February 23, 2010 at 21:03
I was about to ask the same xD lol
February 23, 2010 at 23:12
haha….
So here is the premise of the cartoon. Here in the US we ride through the country roads where cows are in the pastures, and we moooooooooo at the cows when we see them. The cartoon had cows in the car speaking (yakiddy yak yak) to the people standing in the pasture.
Did I explain it better?
February 23, 2010 at 23:23
LOOOOOOL xD
February 23, 2010 at 23:26
Remember the one where the cross hairs of a gun is pointed at the bear and the bear is looking at the hunter and pointing to the other bear next to him.. That one is funny to..
February 23, 2010 at 23:42
That was a funny one
February 24, 2010 at 01:18
Looks like you guys made some pips today! That was a good analysis and call.
I missed the this perfect train because I was lazy – didn’t get up early enough!!!!
oh well…hope tomorrow is a good day to hunt them pips.
February 24, 2010 at 01:23
Darn John. I wish you could have been in it. I was wondering today where you were… I woke to late to get the big move so I just scalped some pips out of it.. I am kinda surprised we have not seen any retracement. I thought it would at least jump up to today’s 23 fibo level.. Still early could do it during the London session but anyway. I hope we can jump on it in the morning.. :)
February 24, 2010 at 01:27
I spoke to soon..
February 24, 2010 at 01:45
As I read your comment I thought I was seeing a retracement.
February 24, 2010 at 01:49
Yeh.. as soon as I started writing.. That’s funny, I like to see retrace, I don’t like when it just drops and then drops, without retrace..
February 24, 2010 at 01:47
It’s right at the 23.6 now from what I have charted. Where to go from here?
February 24, 2010 at 01:55
I will wait to see what Mark thinks but I am aiming at the 585-600 level.. Thats just me, I am no expert.. 561 will give some hard time to the bulls as well I would imagine.. I will only enter on a solid bear candle though.. I will play it safe… Besides we have ice skating on tonight ( I am part girl I guess cause I love that stuff ) I look at Figure skating like I do football…
February 24, 2010 at 02:02
hahaha. I did watch a US team skate last night to phantom of the opera. That made it interesting.
What chart do you like for a bear candle?
February 24, 2010 at 02:06
I only go off the higher time frames.. I will zoom in on the price maybe at the 5min time frame but that is just to take a peak at price action.. I only go for the big time frames because for my method they hold up better a little slower but signals are very reliable for me.. I use to only trade 5-15 min charts but my very negative account balance and Mark taught me better..
February 24, 2010 at 02:02
BTW, Mark is the King of this castle so please don’t go off what I see….
February 24, 2010 at 02:10
Mark is the man. Agreed.
February 24, 2010 at 02:22
I to my friend, he does all this for free, in a world full of greed and scams, he is a good person.. I have really admired his patients and willingness to give..
February 24, 2010 at 02:23
You guys know I can read this right? You’re making me blush ;)
February 24, 2010 at 02:39
I figured you where done for the day and off to dinner and some TV. BTW thank you for helping out Priya today.. I don’t know the whole story but she does not deserve her ethnic back ground being attacked,, I thought it was funny nobody even me would post for a while after what you posted.. You have a good night I got Figure skating on…:)
February 24, 2010 at 02:40
Mark – Do you ever sleep? Geeez
Hey, at least you are appreciated. And what patience you have for all the newbie’s that come and go over time asking the same questions again and again.
Kudoos my man.
February 24, 2010 at 02:44
Mark – where are you located? I figured its like 2 AM where you are at….
February 24, 2010 at 02:56
I believe he is Wisconsin.. ( he’s a Green Bay Packers fan )but I won’t hold that against him lol;)
February 24, 2010 at 02:59
A Cheesehead? Go figure!
February 24, 2010 at 03:04
lol:)
February 24, 2010 at 03:05
Well I am a Cardinals fan and without Warner this next year is going to suck.. Good old Matt might not get it done..
February 24, 2010 at 03:10
How did Warner turn down the that much money! Unreal
I was a Cowboys fan until Jerry Jones bought them. So now I watch the Colts mostly, but always enjoy a good game.
February 24, 2010 at 02:48
I think for tomorrow I’ll wait for a reach for the resistance @1.3590 [Between 38,20% and 50% Fib Retracement]
Or maybe short if it breaks @1.3535 again after a candle.
February 24, 2010 at 02:57
We will see how far this retracement goes. It is hanging out a the .3535
February 24, 2010 at 03:13
let’s what happens tomorrow (today for me lol I’m at GMT0).. I’m going to sleep a little until 8am to se what happened and what’s going on London Open.
See ya all in the morning
February 24, 2010 at 03:17
Later Fabio You have a good night.. see ya in the morning..
February 24, 2010 at 03:17
Hey Kurt.. I think he just wanted to go out before he got hurt or looked stupid,,, he went out at a good time I think. I hope him all the best, he was a gift to football fan for years,, allot like Brett..
February 24, 2010 at 03:27
I guess he had enough money! The Cards had a good run this year.
Calling it a night, have a good one Matthew. C ya tomorrow…
February 24, 2010 at 03:37
See ya in the morning,, Good night:)
February 24, 2010 at 03:39
hmmm I come back and see the kids were put to bed..nice job
for those looking to make this a full time business or a business at all you must define risk for every trade. In forex it is not how much can you make on a trade it is how do I preserve capital on a trade. Profit comes when risk is controlled