2-23-10
3:20a GMT – Watching the forex markets yesterday was about as exciting as watching paint dry. I had three open trades ( none on the EUR/USD signal) all day that hardly moved. Apparently market participants thought the pair had achieved a fair value for the time being and we had equal amounts buying/selling to keep the pair in the tight 1.3650-1.3580 range.
Daily Outlook: Given that nothing has actually changed since yesterday, and 1.3650 held for the second time in 2 weeks I am still looking to sell with the trend as my primary trade. 1.3650 will provide my first resistance level and the falling trend line as my second. We do have the German confidence sentiment being released around 09:00 gmt, so be weary of that (higher than estimated confidence is generally taken as Euro positive – more on that at the forex calendar).
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short from 1.3650 (with candlestick confirmation) with targets at 1.3620, 1.3585 and 1.3555. The falling trend resistance will provide a nice place to hide my stop-loss. Secondary trade is to look for a false breakout above 1.3650 to be capped by the falling trend resistance (currently at1.3680). Finally a break above 1.3700 should produce a challenge of 1.3790 and a break below 1.3580 should open up 1.3545 and 1.3450.
(click to enlarge)
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February 23, 2010 at 03:43
Good evening from sunny Florida USA..well it will be in the morning anyhow :)
February 23, 2010 at 03:51
at least its above 20 degrees there :)
February 23, 2010 at 03:54
hmmmmm in the 70′s today. I left the cold yrs ago, ya’ll can have it.
February 23, 2010 at 03:55
look at thre sp500 daily and we are near a top, if it breaks 1126 then that changes things but right now it looks like we are near wave 3
February 23, 2010 at 03:56
remember the longer the void in a market the faster the move will be when it comes
February 23, 2010 at 04:38
I’m short from 1.3655 all the way down, 1.3550 is my TP
February 23, 2010 at 04:44
Thanx Mark! Great signal again!
Can’t wait for all the new stuff next month
:)
February 23, 2010 at 05:51
Hai Mark,
How do you define the support & resistance line in the chart ?. Would you mind to share it with us on the method .
Thanks
February 23, 2010 at 12:52
Holy cow. I just woke to see the big move.. Missed it but was not brave enough to enter a short before bed with big German news coming out.. Good job Mark all targets hit… I hope to catch a move as well.
February 23, 2010 at 13:24
Miba, please read my FAQ on support and resistance:
http://piphut.com/about/faq-for-free-forex-signals/
and also my article on support and resistance:
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/learn-forex-2-support-and-resistance/
February 23, 2010 at 06:49
Good morning guys,
from various forex sources it has been suggested that the EURUSD is going up possibly to retest the 1.3838 resistance.
Mark would do you reckon? I read the previous post with regards to a possible downward trned but I cannot see any of the signals on the chart
February 23, 2010 at 07:12
The real Mark suppose to be in Blue color :)
ignore the other one
February 23, 2010 at 13:28
Yes, my posts are always in blue.
February 23, 2010 at 07:12
Breakout on the pound dollar and I’m just staring at it!
February 23, 2010 at 07:13
Morning what is happening re break out?
February 23, 2010 at 07:13
Euro is rising early than expected…
waiting for confirmation.
Anybody watching?
February 23, 2010 at 07:15
testing the 1.3660 resistance
February 23, 2010 at 07:20
lol.. even the Candlestick Alert catched 30m doji.. twice…
February 23, 2010 at 07:17
yes we are watching and waiting.
February 23, 2010 at 07:18
bulls out of the pen. good entry for short @ 1.3670 but will wait for confirm.
February 23, 2010 at 07:25
Thanks Tim – didn’t realise that. In any case I wouldn’t change my broker. Better the devil you know I always say!
Could be a false breakout on EURUSD anyone shorting from here?
February 23, 2010 at 07:27
Mark good morning, Guys howdy.
Please is it time to go short on EUR/USD….3650 reached
February 23, 2010 at 07:31
not yet.. we are still waiting if this a false break or still going north..
February 23, 2010 at 07:30
John, wait for candle confirmation.
February 23, 2010 at 07:35
Thanks Yax & Ifan.
By candle formation you mean a Bearish candle right? On what time frame please.
February 23, 2010 at 07:37
yes.. on the 30m alert .. a doji is already showing.. but we need stronger 1H confirmation for this
February 23, 2010 at 07:41
Thanks guys
February 23, 2010 at 07:37
yes…
February 23, 2010 at 07:31
It held, we might see 1.3690.
February 23, 2010 at 07:35
RSI showing over bought, we might be heading down soon.
February 23, 2010 at 07:39
on 1H ? i see only touching the line.. or maybe my screen is just too small.. hahahahah
February 23, 2010 at 07:42
Check your 30m time frame.
February 23, 2010 at 07:44
yes ifan, you are right my 1h just touching the line but 30m is showing over bought.
February 23, 2010 at 07:44
I am going short now and try and ride my pip.
February 23, 2010 at 07:46
do you think it is a good idea.
February 23, 2010 at 08:15
lol… now we’ll be seeing 1.700.. see if it will break with force or not..
guess we still have to wait the 9gmt news afterall
February 23, 2010 at 08:16
sorry.. i meant 1.3700
February 23, 2010 at 07:51
scaled entry not a bad idea at a time like this. bought small parcel at 1.367, well get more if it goes higer.
February 23, 2010 at 08:07
when i say bought i mean sold ; )
February 23, 2010 at 07:58
Hi Yax,
I will only be able to tell you if it was a good idea at the end of the trading day whilst i am counting my profits or losses??? LOL
I know sentiment and commen sense are to big words in Forex but personaly i think there would not be another break out to 1.3700/1.3790 after this one. Maybe a little bit later yes. Everybody is waiting for 9.0 Gmt. So far I am down but I am not worried.
February 23, 2010 at 08:08
Come on man, we are in this together. Personally i appreciate you referring me to the 1h time frame to see the RSI just barely touching the line. That is how it is suppose to be, being your brothers keeper. We are family here, it is like a global village. At the end of the day, we will be counting profits together. Thanks for watching my back. hahahaha…………
February 23, 2010 at 08:17
…heading towards 3700
February 23, 2010 at 08:19
Hi Yax,
I am still down but I took the gamble without waiting for canlestick formations but I will have to ride this one out but thanks for watching my back I do appreciate it. I have got 5+ hours before Germany’s response. Sometimes I do stupid things and by the end of the day it turned into profits???? thanks
February 23, 2010 at 08:23
No, Thank you.
February 23, 2010 at 08:21
which Mark made the posts about forex brokers???????
February 23, 2010 at 08:22
not the piphut master one :)
February 23, 2010 at 08:25
Which broker sent you Mark to come and do ads here?
February 23, 2010 at 13:30
Sallie my posts are always in blue. I’ve removed the other’s posts.
February 23, 2010 at 08:29
I guess I’m ready to board the train…
February 23, 2010 at 08:30
30m shooting star as expected
February 23, 2010 at 08:30
Well the real Mark will answer sooner or later I also sent an email to his direct contact from site not the email that was sent. But we will wait on him to answer.
February 23, 2010 at 08:31
30m candle alert just recorded a bearish shooting star.
February 23, 2010 at 08:36
thanks for the shooting star alert, I was in at 3677 short
February 23, 2010 at 08:59
me too, where do you have the stoploss?
February 23, 2010 at 08:52
Im seeing another future 1H shooting star…
I’m already on board…
February 23, 2010 at 08:57
@ Ifan
already onboard means you’v gone short?
February 23, 2010 at 08:59
yes.. entered at 1.3680
February 23, 2010 at 09:00
Confirmation on 1hr…time to short, am I right?
February 23, 2010 at 09:01
are you guys using about 100 pips for TP or is it too much at this point?????
February 23, 2010 at 09:01
slightly bearish news out of germany. good for us!
February 23, 2010 at 09:03
lovely…
February 23, 2010 at 09:03
Terry, still holding the same views as yesterday on gbp/jpy?
February 23, 2010 at 09:05
Ayman,
Morning. What view would that be?
February 23, 2010 at 09:09
I think we both agree that long-term gbp/jpy is bearish based on technical analysis, but i still see a resumption to the upside for the next few days!! it has been trading in a range over the last three working days! im Still a buyer, but Terry was right to tell me to sell yesterday! i sold at 141.35
im looking to enter again and buy at 141.05 with a 20 pip stop loss for a short-term move above 141.20, then 141.35, then 141.50 eventually to 142.05
February 23, 2010 at 09:04
great I will feel comfortable when it down in the 30s then feel it might go further down, because the 55s could bring it back up.
February 23, 2010 at 09:05
John are you on board? The german IFO came out bad.
February 23, 2010 at 09:09
Yes Yax on board already…Thanks
February 23, 2010 at 09:13
im dropping my entry point to 140.90
February 23, 2010 at 09:21
targets, anyone? i’m looking for 1.3630 only because it will bring my account to a nice round number.
February 23, 2010 at 09:24
actually ive decided to stand aside
February 23, 2010 at 09:26
Looks like the GbpUsd is a good sell target 5400
February 23, 2010 at 10:00
Since 0800gmt a drop of 140 pips still going nicely
February 23, 2010 at 13:31
Good to see you Hendrik, you been busy?
February 23, 2010 at 14:28
Hi Mark and friends
Yes since 10 Jan we ripped out the old Oregan Pine flooring except for one room. It was an end of an era (with sadness) but it had to be done. Pitty I can’t use the wood anymore — completely rotten. In our neck of the woods Oregan is very sought after. Well we filled the floors and concrete the top. It’s an old house buildt with clay. It has a lot of nostalgy, but heavy on maintenance. Now we’ve tackled the outside … it feels like a never ending story. Trading was not always on my mind .. but every now and then I’ve checked what was cooking (couldn’t stay away completely :) (Thanks for asking)
February 23, 2010 at 14:55
Hello Hendrik,
Glad when you get back.
February 23, 2010 at 09:33
Hello all friends,
Have I missed the train, or can I still catch it at 1.3640 ?
February 23, 2010 at 09:33
i miss the train already guys! is it still ok to catch it at 1.3640?
February 23, 2010 at 09:44
I would wait until four oclock pst, use the four hour chart or the twelve hour chart to decide to come in since it is going down it should continue but by four oclock it could be an up signal by five thirty six oclock so be cautious. Maybe we will get other confirmations look at Mark’s shortings and see where price is by then too.
February 23, 2010 at 09:51
out at 1.364, nice little trade but not enough momentum to continue. starting to look as flat as yesterday.
February 23, 2010 at 10:02
or maybe not ; ) just pulled another few pips out of EU
February 23, 2010 at 10:06
Still enjoying the ride. Thanks to Mark and my fellow piphuters.
February 23, 2010 at 10:07
Hi Yax,
Can you see the smile on my face? It paid of.
February 23, 2010 at 10:13
I told ya. I can see the smile but i tell you, my smile is even bigger!!!!!!!
February 23, 2010 at 10:10
lol…. the main thing is… We are all heading in the same direction, riding the same train.. that what counts
February 23, 2010 at 10:16
If we could do this even just one day a week we could all be rich nice thought, I am using the 15 minute chart to make sure black keeps shinning through when I see too much white might think about taking profit.
February 23, 2010 at 10:18
Yax,
your smile bigger than mine for helping me or making more pips than me only 37 but BPB/USD 75 pips thanks I owe you a coke or beer when you come and watch soccer/football in RSA.
February 23, 2010 at 10:20
Yax,
I have re-entered both pairs but very very short like 10 pips at a time.