2-23-10
3:20a GMT – Watching the forex markets yesterday was about as exciting as watching paint dry. I had three open trades ( none on the EUR/USD signal) all day that hardly moved. Apparently market participants thought the pair had achieved a fair value for the time being and we had equal amounts buying/selling to keep the pair in the tight 1.3650-1.3580 range.
Daily Outlook: Given that nothing has actually changed since yesterday, and 1.3650 held for the second time in 2 weeks I am still looking to sell with the trend as my primary trade. 1.3650 will provide my first resistance level and the falling trend line as my second. We do have the German confidence sentiment being released around 09:00 gmt, so be weary of that (higher than estimated confidence is generally taken as Euro positive – more on that at the forex calendar).
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short from 1.3650 (with candlestick confirmation) with targets at 1.3620, 1.3585 and 1.3555. The falling trend resistance will provide a nice place to hide my stop-loss. Secondary trade is to look for a false breakout above 1.3650 to be capped by the falling trend resistance (currently at1.3680). Finally a break above 1.3700 should produce a challenge of 1.3790 and a break below 1.3580 should open up 1.3545 and 1.3450.
(click to enlarge)
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February 23, 2010 at 10:27
I took 50 EUR/USD and 30 GBP/USD but am considering to re-enter.
February 23, 2010 at 10:27
Hello everyone at Piphut,
My name is Graham and I am from Lancaster in the UK, I have been following things here for the last few weeks. Being a very green newbie to the FX marketplace I am finding things here very helpful. I hope that i will be able to learn enoght for me to be able to learn how to trade successfully for myself. Anyway I just wanted to introduce myself or break the ice as it were and hope that it was not inappropriate to post this message on the board if so im sorry and if someone could direct me to the appropriate area that would be appreciated. Hope everone has a day of plentiful pips!
Graham
February 23, 2010 at 10:36
welcome Graham
February 23, 2010 at 10:45
Welcome Graham, You sure are in the right place.
February 23, 2010 at 10:55
Welcome aboard as well Graham.
February 23, 2010 at 13:24
Hello Graham,
Welcome to Piphut.com!!! This is the place to learn to trade and profit pips. Mark is a great person to work with. Enjoy and glad to have you.
February 23, 2010 at 13:31
Welcome to Piphut Graham, glad to have you here!
February 23, 2010 at 10:37
Hi Everyone
Hope your all successfully collecting pips. Have been away for a week due to flat hunting so no time to trade. I went short @3670 this morning and am wondering what to do now. SL is now @3624. Does anyone think it will touch .3580?.
February 23, 2010 at 10:42
i assume strong suppiort at 1.3590, where i bought on yesterday
February 23, 2010 at 10:44
Thanks Ayman. That’s very helpful.
February 23, 2010 at 10:48
hye Ayman.
Will it go south again after 1.3590?
Will you enter at this point?
February 23, 2010 at 10:50
Yax do not re-enter BPD
February 23, 2010 at 10:53
ALRIGHT…. Thanks.
February 23, 2010 at 10:53
im not sure on eur/usd, i would say eur/usd to drop down to 1.3574, but may take a while before penetrating 1.3590
February 23, 2010 at 10:54
im bearish eur/gbp, so bought gbp/jpy at 140.05
February 23, 2010 at 11:13
Ayman,
Where did got the trading idea for the croses? Since i’m only rely on Mark idea, i don’t know what to do for athers pair.
Hope you will give some advice!
February 23, 2010 at 11:38
sometimes i sit for an hour just looking at the beahviour of currency pairs on the back of good news or bad news! i dont take any positions, all i do, is write down what i think is gonna happen, i put in my entry points and exit points!! i always run a 20 pip loss!! nothing more! i stay desciplined, and eventually i achieve my target!!
February 23, 2010 at 10:55
to be honest i dont really trade in eur/usd, but sometimes take a punt, when ive done my research! i prefer to trade crosses such as gbp/jpy, eur/jpy, gbp/aud, eur/aud, cad/jpy and so forth
February 23, 2010 at 10:57
Why these crosses?
February 23, 2010 at 11:06
well jpy crosses move alot on s&p 500 index moves, and aud crosses move on news from china and it helps you to learn more about the behaviour of other currenciy pairs and their relationship with what u r trading!! Also they are affected by moves in the commodity markets, so there can me alot of volatility, meaning you can take small trades and scoop big profits in short time periods
February 23, 2010 at 10:58
Ayman,
Hi there will have a look and expand. Thanks and to Yax stay out of Eur/Usd for the moment. I am battling to reach my T/P
February 23, 2010 at 10:59
Just got home from work..
closed @ 1.3620 and @ 1.3600…
wonderful day….
February 23, 2010 at 11:00
What is going to happen now that 1.3600 has been broken??????
February 23, 2010 at 11:01
Another happy trading day :)
February 23, 2010 at 11:03
hey markus.. good to see you again.. did you also ride the crashing train?
February 23, 2010 at 11:27
oh yeah, quite a ride. Was nervous about it initially, but now it feels sooo good, hehe
February 23, 2010 at 11:03
What do we do? do I re-enter EUR/ USD ??? Yax you are my advisor for to-day.
February 23, 2010 at 11:03
Hi guys,
I`m kind of new here, but I suggest to buy GBP/JPY
I have a hairy feeling that it`s going to bull like hell :D
February 23, 2010 at 11:07
well i bought at 140.05 and looking to take 50pip profit
February 23, 2010 at 12:48
not a good idea to buy…
February 23, 2010 at 11:18
my goal was 100 pips so I took it and goodnight everybody so great to work with you guys see you all tomorrow. Thanks so very much, Sallie
February 23, 2010 at 11:20
1.3534 i think is next target on eur/usd
February 23, 2010 at 11:33
Thanks Ayman!
February 23, 2010 at 11:53
A massive thanx to Mark for todays signals. All 3 targets now hit.
February 23, 2010 at 11:57
it keeps going and going
http://sandrineplasseraud.typepad.com/marketing/images/2008/05/12/35_heures_du_lapinfr_3.gif
February 23, 2010 at 11:58
Mark (Pip hut master), thanks for todays signal, all 3 targets were reached. You are the man. Am glad I took my patient pill today. Pip hutters, one love……
February 23, 2010 at 12:02
Eur/Usd seem to be over bought already M30 (RSI)… Please am I right?
February 23, 2010 at 12:02
Sorry I meant over sold
February 23, 2010 at 12:11
It`s not oversold, not yet it isn`t. But don`t make your desicions based on RSI, you`ll lose big time :D
February 23, 2010 at 12:22
Thanks Taavi, am still a baby trader. learning everyday…:)
February 23, 2010 at 12:03
Its my happiest day today! Thanks Mark and all piphutters!
US just open now and the big news will happen in 3hour, will EU keep south after hit Mark’s target?
February 23, 2010 at 12:27
Hi Rafi, the pair has now moved around 135 pips today. The ATR for the pair is 125, so it’s already done over the average days move. Of course it may move further down….anything can happen but Marks analysis has given us 120 pips profit today and I’m happy with that. Good luck if you decide to continue trading it.
February 23, 2010 at 13:46
Thanks Neil…i will only enter at 1.3610. If not…thats all for today. waiting for next Mark trading idea.
February 23, 2010 at 13:56
Excellent thinking Rafi, if it does retrace to 1.3610 which is near the 38% fib from todays high and also near todays pivot point, then it will have room to drop again. Thanx for the idea I’ll be keeping an eye on that myself.
February 23, 2010 at 12:04
Im closing my trades now, i had more than i expected now. Cheers Mark! good luck to those who stay in, this could possibly continue all day
February 23, 2010 at 12:31
eheheh lose all this exciting action!! =)
Great to see that all of you made some great pips.. I’ve been sick and could even look to the monitor of my computer, was making my head blow!!
Now that I’m ready for action I am waiting for a challenge of 1.3592 and wait for a candle to go south
February 23, 2010 at 12:37
i’m re-enter @1.3610. Is it OK?
February 23, 2010 at 12:39
I considering entering @ 1.3590 -85 -80
but first I wait some candle to confirm that it is going down
February 23, 2010 at 12:40
*I want some..
February 23, 2010 at 12:44
I made some 90 pips. good for the day. waiting to re enter at a higher price @ around 1.365.
February 23, 2010 at 12:51
nice catch PRIYA
I’m waiting for 13h GMT to see if it forms an Inverted Hammer at 1H or at 30m a dragonfly doji or a shooting star
February 23, 2010 at 12:55
Thinking to short GBP/USD @ 1.545, short NZD/USD @ 0.702 long USD/CAD @ 1.04, missed the train on USD/CHF though!!!
February 23, 2010 at 13:01
Its Hanging Man at M30, is it good for bear?
February 23, 2010 at 13:08
I’ll wait for the next candle to confirm that it is going bearish..
February 23, 2010 at 13:02
US market opens now…
Better sit a while on the fence and watch the movements and don’t take any position for now
February 23, 2010 at 13:07
Mark, really good job. :) Everyone is happy.
February 23, 2010 at 13:10
Hi Mark, (Piphut) Thanx again for the signals today. Your analysis always astounds me as to how accurate it is and my aim is to be able to analyze the charts as well as you. I wonder if I could pick your brains on today’s targets please? I understand the entry point- after it broke through the 1.365 resistance (which I’m assuming you took from previous touches on the 18th and 22nd?) the next resistance was the sinking trend line at around 1.3680, at which point it gave an excellent sell signal with the reversal candles on the 30 min and hourly charts. The price sunk until it hit your 3rd target at which point it bounced. I can see the first target is a few pips above the daily pivot but I don’t think you use pivot points so how did you select that Target? Also did you select the second target because it was just above yesterdays low, possible support? And finally, how did you select the 3rd target please? I’m sure you’ve got a crystal ball there with you…hehe. Anyway, I know you are busy and you do this all for free and I would really appreciate it if you could find the time to share your wisdom on these points.
February 23, 2010 at 13:34
I use support/resistance as targets on various timeframes. No crystal ball ;)
February 23, 2010 at 13:48
Thank you Mark.
February 23, 2010 at 13:30
its Hanging Man and now its Doji…will it bear? anybody enter @1.358?
February 23, 2010 at 13:32
Have been following and i think i should be part of this family. Hi to all and hope you had a pipfilled day.
February 23, 2010 at 13:35
Hey Emmanuel, Glad you are here and look forward to you being a part of this family..
February 23, 2010 at 13:51
Hello Emmanuel,
Welcome!!!
February 23, 2010 at 13:36
all targets hit for 100 pips. I put a sell entry at 1.3680 because it offered a good risk/reward opp if it was tripped.
February 23, 2010 at 13:42
Mark, I was thinking last night of putting a sell oder in at 1.3683 last night but the thing that stopped me was the German data that had a positive forecast.. I see you had put in an order and did not worry about that. Was it due to the 4 hour trend line coming down was a safe bet or does the German news not matter.
February 23, 2010 at 14:34
There is always news coming out – as a technical trader I believe that news is baked into the charts and that the charts will tell me a lot more about sentiment than reading the news 24 hours a day and trying to interpret that.
That being said I’m still weary of entering near big news just because thin markets can create whipsaws. The difference here is that German sentiment is big, but not huge, we were near major resistance which provides better shelter for my SL and the risk/reward was good.
February 23, 2010 at 14:46
Cool deal thank you Mark, I figured I might miss a trade but it won’t be the last. I just based it off of better safe than sorry:) Will remember for next perfect setup.
February 23, 2010 at 14:50
ALWAYS better to be safe than sorry in the trading world
February 23, 2010 at 13:59
Good Morning, Mark!!!
My questions for you today are (1) do you layout all the major trendlines, support and resistance for each of the pairs you trade or do you only have a few that you do this for? (2)When a chart does not show clearly the major trend (example: from top of chart to bottom of chart or from bottom of chart to top of chart), how do you determine whether to trade that pair in a up or down trend so that it will be your friend or do you not trade it because it has not established a major trend?
Thanks
February 23, 2010 at 14:36
1) yes, all pairs I trade
2) I back out to the 4h and daily to confirm there is no trend. If not then it is ranging and I look for major SR levels to trade.
February 23, 2010 at 14:00
Hi piphutters,
is everyone already off the market for today?
(with a catch like that even me were out for good lol)
February 23, 2010 at 14:06
well…im out. Waiting for next tomorrow
February 23, 2010 at 14:09
I prefer to have 0 pip hut than -20 pip or -30 pip with a bad trade, and with a 1.3535 strong support going bearish can end bad, and go long with a strong down trend… I don’t think so.. tomorrow will be another day
February 23, 2010 at 14:08
Today’s JPY trade stopped at twenty pips.
If we close this hour around 90.80, forming
a “spike low”, I’m buying again – target about
100 pips or 5ma TSL.
February 23, 2010 at 14:16
Hello everyone, I know its late but hope someone is still on here ha ah. Question whats a good indicator for identifying the falling trend resistance?
February 23, 2010 at 14:56
Do you mean a trend line on the higher time frames like in Marks signal picture or actual indicator, like RSI ect,ect
February 23, 2010 at 14:20
Look at Yen 60 chart spike low
Today’s JPY trade stopped at twenty pips.
If we close this hour around 90.80, forming
a “spike low”, I’m buying again – target about
100 pips or 5ma TSL.
any comment????
February 23, 2010 at 14:22
it’s been a great ride.. made 140 pips from 2 shorts, definitely more than enough for me to end my trade for the day… now, Im just enjoying my pizza dinner with my wife :)
Mark (the real one in Blue), again thanks for the signals.. I learned so much, hope that i can contribute more for the community :)
February 23, 2010 at 14:36
You don’t have to prove me anything. I work with two brokers; both of them are regulated and pay ME in time. And anyway I didn’t ask you about the licence, BECAUSE I KNOW WHAT IT IS. We don’t want any proof from you, nor do we want to learn anything from you. So keep your gracious advice to yourself. Mark is here who will advise us, when we ask him. If you are so much concerned about people, then why do ask them to email you, why just you not tell who is your broker asking you to advertise here?
February 23, 2010 at 15:01
Mark,
What timeframe do you mainly use to get your take profit levels? I know that the longer the timeframe the better the support/resistance levels. For example, do you use 4hr or daily or 30 min timeframe? Or if you use a combination of all, how do you use them?
February 23, 2010 at 15:05
Hello Mark and everyone,
I have a question about a certain CFTC proposal, which imposes new requirements on the U.S. Forex industry. The proposal significantly changes the leverage permitted on certain accounts and if passed would have drastic effect on retail traders like us.
In the CFTC proposed regulation, leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation from the 100:1 leverage(1% margin requirement)to open and maintain a forex account.
What are your thoughts on this or is this really true and how does it affect us here?
February 23, 2010 at 15:25
I am not mark but…
it is important to have an understanding about leverage on forex and how it works. The game basically works this way: The broker is the shark. The retail trader is the shark food. If you want to make money currency trading, give yourself a fair chance and my advice is not to go more than 10x. What’s the hurry to make money?
You must overcome greed and impatience to become a successful forex trader. Nothing worthwhile in business or life can be achieved overnight. One of the most popular forex trading systems out there is based on very low leverage.
If you know how to trade and are not in the habit of over trading and overleveraging yourself then you will be fine. If you are and cannot trade with a 10:1 leverage then go to an overaeas broker. There are many that are reputable STP ECN’s and no comissions
hope this helps
February 23, 2010 at 15:49
I read in an articles few weeks ago that CFTC does not regulate forex market. This proposal has been going around for some time. Experts think this will not come in effect.
February 23, 2010 at 16:09
I’m pretty indifferent on it. On one hand I think its a positive thing because so many new traders get wiped out before they ever really learn the ropes. On the other hand its just more regulation.
As Tom pointed out there are reputable overseas brokers that aren’t subject to this proposal.
February 23, 2010 at 15:16
hi mark,
great thanks to your loyal helps to privat forex traders.
it would be very nice, if comments page refreshed itself automatically, and last post would be at the top…
if you can make these changes , we ll be glad.
best wishes,
mehmet özdemir
February 23, 2010 at 15:26
Matthew
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:56 pm · Reply
Do you mean a trend line on the higher time frames like in Marks signal picture or actual indicator, like RSI ect,ect
Thanks, I figured it out, case of not reading before posting, sorry.
Thanks
February 23, 2010 at 15:29
No big deal. I am glad you found your answer. I did not remember an indicator like that. I have always just do the trend line stuff.. That would be a cool indicator though..
February 23, 2010 at 15:27
Mark, I love your patients brother… With me and all your piphutketeers…..;) your a good man… You are hit with a million questions and allot of them are asks over and over.. ( yes even mine ) and you just keep it cool, thanks again..
February 23, 2010 at 15:35
it’s been a comedy of errors for me this week.. where i should’ve made a lot of money, i’ve failed to by not sticking to the trading plan. that’ll learn me.. however i can’t fault this site, you’ve all been very helpful + the sense of community is important when trading on one’s own. hope the rest of you did well today.
February 23, 2010 at 15:36
I have been following the Hut for about a year now, I have followed many other freebes, must say this one is the very best. I guess the word is out I remember days where they were like 5 or no comments at all. Congrats Mark and Thanks..
February 23, 2010 at 15:39
Thanks for the feedback Cadtek, it’s good to hear a voice from the “silent majority” now and again :)
February 23, 2010 at 15:39
EU just bounced off the 23.6 fib line.. looks to be in the range between that and 38.2 fib for now.
February 23, 2010 at 15:43
Would someone let me the date which starts that resistance trend line that touches on January 13, 2010 that Mark has shown in the chart for today’s signal?
Thanks
February 23, 2010 at 15:48
connect Jan 25 and Feb 17 highs on 1 or 4h charts
February 23, 2010 at 16:01
Mark,
I’m talking about the trend line above that one that you have drawn. What date does that one starts at or touches besides jan 13?
February 23, 2010 at 16:06
Ah, Dec 2 (2009) and Jan 12 highs
February 23, 2010 at 16:34
Mark,
Thanks, I got it, now. Just wanted to make sure we were working with the same trend lines.
February 23, 2010 at 15:49
Matthew
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:29 pm · Reply
No big deal. I am glad you found your answer. I did not remember an indicator like that. I have always just do the trend line stuff.. That would be a cool indicator though..
The SHI Channel Comes close
February 23, 2010 at 15:58
Tom,
I don’t understand your position and the symbiotic relationship btw the two, but i think this would leave a lot of potential and current retail traders out of the market. If they need a minimum of 10,000usd to open & maintain a trade as compared to a 1,000usd. I think that’s a bit unfair to the small guy and i guess that’s were majority fit.
February 23, 2010 at 16:20
I agree with you completely and to be honest most retail traders should not be in the forex market..harsh as that may sound its the truth.
I use an overseas broker and have for many years now. I would not use a USA based broker. If you cannot trade under the proposed new rules then move offshore.
February 23, 2010 at 16:01
Sorry Tom,
It should be do understand and not don’t
February 23, 2010 at 16:09
Well I am done, Ya all have a wonderful day…. Mark thank you again for your wisdom and time..