2-25-10
3:35a GMT – I stayed out of the pair most of the day, brushing aside the fact that the more aggressive call yesterday (short at 1.3580) would have produced nice pips with my usual 40-50 pip stop. But my secondary setup (“A secondary setup is a sustained break of the lower rising trend support which I would look to produce a challenge of 1.3450″) was triggered about 4 hours ago and quickly produced the pop I was looking for, quickly putting 50 pips in my pocket.
Daily Outlook: Falling trend resistance (top blue line on chart below) continues to hold strong and cap any bullish advances. This break below 1.3500 is another bearish signal and the lowest daily close for the week, but ultimately we want a close below 1.3440 to confirm the continuation of the downtrend. 1.3450 is strong support and I will look to fade rallies that target this level.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is to look to fade rallies into the 1.3550-1.3580 resistance zone, with targets (from 1.3580) at 1.3550, 1.3520, 1.3490 and 1.3455. A more aggressive trade would be a candlestick signal at 1.3500 resistance. I would feel best about this one if price action took several hours to get up to this level, meaning bears didn’t have much strength. Finally a sustained break of 1.3450 should target 1.3410 and 1.3380.
Good pipping!
(click to enlarge)
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February 25, 2010 at 16:05
it is coming down for you, Priya is thinking of longing the USDCHF, if it goes long the Euro should go short
February 25, 2010 at 16:15
Absolutely right. I am already in (USD/CHF short @ 1.810)
Short GBP/USD @ 1.53
February 25, 2010 at 16:16
Also short on EUR/USD @ 1.352. I like risks. That is Forex!!!
February 25, 2010 at 16:21
Priya i like your signals and guts
February 25, 2010 at 16:24
Thanks Joe, I feel very happy when I make nice pips. when I lose, no problem, I will not give up.
February 25, 2010 at 16:21
You mean long in USD/CHF right?
February 25, 2010 at 16:25
Sorry for the mistake. You are right, I am long on USD/CHF @ 1.0810
February 25, 2010 at 17:20
You’re my hero, Priya.
February 25, 2010 at 16:13
Looks like a false break out of 1.3530 to take out the stops. I went short at 1.3529. We will watch. With dow trading low and risk aversion at its high, it might be difficult to get to 1.3550. If it does I will short again. Waiting game now.
February 25, 2010 at 16:20
Got a feeling that GBP has almost hit rock bottom for today whereas EUR has some falling to do still, which equals sell EURGBP?
February 25, 2010 at 16:28
I closed 2 positions at 100 pips profit. GBP/USD at 60 pips and EUR/USD (priviously closed) with 40 pips. Good for the day. I still have USD/CHF open, one more position on EUR/USD is also open.
February 25, 2010 at 16:45
Hi Priya
Which indicators / technical analysis do you use for your entry and exits?
February 25, 2010 at 16:54
Booga I don’t have any answer for this. It is not that I don’t want to share. I had a mentor before (Now a days I couldn’t contact him). He thought me one important thing. Use EUR/USD for all your analysis. And you don’t have to search anywhere for that because we are in the right place PIPHUT.
February 25, 2010 at 17:00
Thank you Priya, enjoy your weekend.
February 25, 2010 at 16:46
Priya – your having an amazing week of trading !
February 25, 2010 at 16:55
Yes Mr. Candlestick Trade. I hope this will continue.
Have good-time trading forex all of you. Now It’s time to enjoy my movie. Good night.
February 25, 2010 at 16:29
More like a big Casino here today :)
February 25, 2010 at 16:39
Casino!!!
What made you feel like that?
February 25, 2010 at 16:46
Goodnight everybody, it’s my weekend!!!
See you tomorrow.
February 25, 2010 at 16:54
well i used to be a huge skeptic of fibonacci, but this week i am a convert. even in the move of EU between 23 fib and 0 just now, i drew a smaller fib series and sure enough, the move down stopped at all the fib lines on that too.
i guess it’s a case of a lot of people using these lines as support/resistance, but it still blows me away that they actually work.
February 25, 2010 at 16:58
I have to learn the fibs I will do that this weekend I started and never really got it, anyway looks like the Euro should drop below the 3450 on the 8 hour????
February 25, 2010 at 17:03
Hi Sallie, what would you suggest as learning material for the fibonacci?
February 25, 2010 at 17:07
looks like it doesn’t it Sallie, but i just got out of my EU short from 1.350 .. it’s late here + i’ll turn in soon. last night it fell a lot on low volume, perhaps will do the same again today/night. don’t want to miss the break below 1.345, but i think it may go back to 1.353 first.
February 25, 2010 at 17:12
Are you guys trading this mess? Maybe its just me that cant get a good sence on whats going on today then…
Dont seam like anything is acting normal today
February 25, 2010 at 17:23
The way I see it is there are to many days that give us really good signals to be messing around with a day that does not.. I will wait for a good signal in one of the higher price ranges, if it comes today, tomorrow, or next week… Preservation of capital.. You don’t have to trade every day, but when you do trade make it a good one with the highest probability of going your way…
February 25, 2010 at 18:36
Matthew,
I am proud of you. You have been totally transformed from a while back into this patient trader (so have I). I know without looking at your account you are now seeing much more postive results (so am I). We are really trying to be in the 5%. Keep up the good work because you inspire me.
February 25, 2010 at 19:31
Thank you, Lisa. I just got tired of watching my account shrink, so the start of February I decided to do things a little different and it has really helped this month..I actually have more money in my account now than the start of the month and I have had about half the trades this month than last month.. I stopped over trading and only wait for the good stuff.. Journals are worth there weight in gold..
February 25, 2010 at 19:41
I agree. I had already been keeping a journal but I went back and revised my computerized journal and spreadsheet files. I also started inputting in my journal daily instead of skipping out. It has made a big difference.
February 25, 2010 at 19:12
well finally we might get a good signal in the right area and it seams to have calmed down a bit… lets see.
my second day of waiting now, need some more movies to watch, hehe
February 26, 2010 at 01:46
Hi Markus… Hence, my last post above :)
I didn’t see any reasons for me to enter for the whole day. yes of course we saw some big candles… but no good signals to jump in.. tempting.. but its a no for me
@matthew : i hear ya buddy. Im so thankful for some of the guys here.. especially Mark. Inspired me to make myself a better grip..
February 25, 2010 at 17:24
I will check this site first for info on fibs if not have to look over my old stuff.
February 25, 2010 at 17:49
(Warning) The result of a completed ending diagonal is a violent push higher, and a triangle always precedes the final actionary wave in a sequence.
February 25, 2010 at 18:21
do you mean something like this?
http://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Member_Charts/Euro/eur-usd337.3.gif
February 25, 2010 at 18:26
translation? ; )
February 25, 2010 at 18:35
I’d say as long as 3690 holds, the eur will still be in the confines of this triangle, and all these recent triangles have all broken in the direction of the trend
February 25, 2010 at 19:26
David – I need a legend
February 25, 2010 at 18:37
anyone selling eur??
February 25, 2010 at 18:42
yeah.. doji on 30min. i should probably be sleeping though.
February 25, 2010 at 18:54
he he thanx Darren!
I am also in
February 25, 2010 at 18:57
once again Mark was right though. better entry would have been 1.355 or even 1.358 if it gets there. i’m in at 1.352
February 25, 2010 at 18:51
not yet
February 25, 2010 at 18:55
HiZAR,
I am still in EUR as well as GBP but I am loosing right now. I am not worried I should make it (I hope).
February 25, 2010 at 19:14
Yes Louis, Ek ook in die moeilikheid!
I am short eur/usd and gbp/usd
February 25, 2010 at 19:00
whooo, what is happening?
I expected a little rise, but this…
February 25, 2010 at 19:20
Oh We of little faith….
I jumped in a little early @ .3540. Should have stuck to my sell limit order from this morning that was set for .3565.
Still learning that patients thing….
February 25, 2010 at 19:21
patience
February 25, 2010 at 19:07
This is called triggering shorts to make fresh entry. It should head down. but shorts beware it will test your patience
February 25, 2010 at 19:16
oooh…saw 1.3570 for a moment there. I’m still waiting for 1.3580. It’s gotta be 1.3580 or NOTHING!
February 25, 2010 at 19:19
cool 76 pips from my long position on eu….depending on the close for today i’ll know if 1.3650 will be tested….happy pip hunting
February 25, 2010 at 19:46
El Maximilliano,
What made you get in this long position even though it was clearly against the trend?
February 25, 2010 at 19:52
I would have liked to go long until my short entry and ride both sides of the wave….but it’s just my preference to refrain from longing in a short trend.
El was comfortable with that risk…and is enjoying the payouts from that.
February 25, 2010 at 19:56
i’m not going against the trend…it’s obvious that a majopr trend often consolidates before the next trading day,…moreover i prefer buying lows and selling highs
February 25, 2010 at 21:01
El,
That’s great for you. Like Mark said many traders have different styles. I am just happy for you that you got some pips. Good pipping!!!
February 25, 2010 at 19:47
Hi ZAR,
Eish ne what can I say i entered EUR 1.3519 and GBP 1.5226 so I am suffering but i am sure I will make it ——or not????
February 25, 2010 at 20:04
If it were me…I’d wait. I did that last week, getting in the wrong spot. But bad Greece is still out there…and we ‘probably’ will get down to 1.3500 again. The only problem is you will have to pay for overnight swaps.
But then again, I cannot tell you what to do with your money.
February 25, 2010 at 19:52
Hello friends,
Is it good to short at 1.3550 ?
February 25, 2010 at 19:56
I’m tempted to. But I prefer 1.3580 (or higher).
1.3570 was reached and would be safer IMO…but not enough steam to activate my pending order at 1.3580.
You never know anything for sure in trading. But 1.3580 would indeed have been a perfect textbook entry for today. The bulls look like they are fizzling out…but who knows…there’s still 1 to 2 more hours for US. Please more bad US news! hehe.
February 25, 2010 at 20:20
Hey John I’m with you.. I would like to see it a little higher I see a nice little bounce off of the trend line coming off 2/23 high. I wonder, wonder ( who wrote the book of love )lol:) just kidding…. Talk to ya all in the morning.. Trade safe…
February 25, 2010 at 20:25
Yup…see you in the morning.
Lot of news action going on in EUR and USD Friday morning.
If Uncle Spikey is visiting tomorrow…maybe I should just sit out and call it a week.
February 25, 2010 at 20:14
“James B. Rogers, the former business partner of George Soros, says sterling is a “basket case,” sagging under the weight of a depressed U.K. economy. Soros cemented his place in financial history as “the man who broke the Bank of England,” in 1992, earning more than $1 billion in the process.
Rogers predicts sterling could collapse within weeks, he says in a press statement released Thursday. Separately, analysts at UBS say the pound could fall to “$1.05 and below” from around $1.52 where it traded Thursday afternoon, after slipping more than 1% on the day.
If this all sounds familiar, it’s because the nearly 20-year-old scene in which financier Soros bet $10 billion against sterling and walked away with a one-day gain of $1 billion looks to be making a repeat performance on the financial theater’s center stage. ”
Fellow piphutters, if I had that much of money, I’d notify all of you and we can ride the wave together. hehe…just kidding..no insider trading.
But seriously, with news like this today… we’re are in a good SHORT trend, with US recovering ahead of Europe.
February 25, 2010 at 20:58
John, first time i post but
5000pips ? you’re kidding ?
i found the text you quote, it’s rather an anarchist,new world order, paranoid text.
Don’t be sure of US recovery & EU death dive so much. recent news are rather good for EU and bad for US but it’s changing every day so …
February 25, 2010 at 21:19
Didn’t mean to cause a stir…and I’m not prophesying.
No guys…I’m not calling a signal here for 5000 pips.
I’m just sharing the latest news…and it’s getting outdated as we speak.
But don’t you agree that US was first to dive, and Europe followed? Same thing for a recovery. This is just a general statement.
February 25, 2010 at 21:51
Darn it John I already put in a short with your targets…LOL… Just kidding with ya.. That’s why I try and stay away from news articles like that.. Less clutter in my mind the better……
February 25, 2010 at 21:58
hehe … lol.
I try to stay away too, but this one popped up on my trading platform. So I figured it must be important. I don’t what spooks or what does not anymore. hehe
I’m still learning…but doesn’t fundamentals seem more like 40/60 vs tech nowadays?
I apologize if the news sounds degrading to my fellow piphutters from across the globe. All in all…please shoot the journalist, not the messenger. I’ll refrain from posting news. It’s a spooooky world.
February 25, 2010 at 23:48
I agree with you when you say US is precursor of global economic state even for euro, but maybe none of the two are on the road to curation for the moment ;)
And keep the british islanders with their £, they choose to not enter €, let see if they were right :)
i’m not blaming a messenger.
February 25, 2010 at 23:54
Thanks Pierre!
Yup.. US is not out of the woods yet. In fact I don’t think we have seen a major consolidation from Mar 09′s run yet.
February 25, 2010 at 21:39
hoping this will fall on low volume like it did yesterday.
February 25, 2010 at 22:05
Double bottoms…
@ 4H Chart:
19-02-2010 00:00
26-02-2010 06:00
Mark, do you think that a reversal is possible with the formation of this double bottom?
Or do you think that the market is still bearish and this is a weak pattern to predict a reversal?
maybe the more probable thing at this point is predict a ranging or a slowdown on the downtrend… Or maybe nothing
February 25, 2010 at 22:12
looking it closely, it maybe be forming a triangle rectangle, take a look mark ;)
February 25, 2010 at 23:52
There are some EUR and US news for Friday…so this may be a sign of a breakout.
February 26, 2010 at 00:15
Hello
you think eur can go to 1.3400, the trend is still down
February 26, 2010 at 00:58
Are you sure? I’m still in position at 1.34965 and 1.35140. Losing money……………………..
:_(
February 26, 2010 at 00:55
for the first time this week price opened above the daily pivot but 1.3600 – 1.3620 region should be a good shorting region…i’m patiently waiting..nice pipping day to yall
February 26, 2010 at 00:59
I’m SUPER panicky yet patiently waiting for price to fall to my short positions!!!
February 26, 2010 at 01:04
glen,
what happened to your money management and stop loss..it will come down but eu is tending towards its weekly pivot for now…
February 26, 2010 at 01:08
I forgot to put stop loss last night and only put LIMIT (which takes profit)!!!! GAH!!!!!!! I just topped up my account with USD $50 to elimiate margin call if it really goes too high before falling. Is it a safe move? I’m bad at indicators, I’m still learning!
February 26, 2010 at 01:59
Glen,
You’ve got to be careful with indicators and please them well…weekly pivot at 1.3614 might be tested before the drop down…i hope your money can sustain till then….it is well.
February 26, 2010 at 03:49
I was short at 1.3560 and my stop got hit at 1.3590. I hate trading on fridays. I think this is short covering in Asia before weekend.
February 26, 2010 at 05:27
Hello,
Good morning to all piphutters. I think I am the first one today. Friday, so will be low show I guess.
February 26, 2010 at 06:05
Hello Mark,
I guess you forgot to post your daily signal today. Please check. Thank you
February 26, 2010 at 06:27
George, my signals come out between 11p-1a EST in general, but there is no “set time”.
February 26, 2010 at 06:09
Hi George
The other day I set a pending sell trade on GBPJPY at 139.04 and when it got triggered the price careered upwards again and when it eventually came down I was so nervous I closed it out for no profit at all. Totally crazy I know considering how it’s dropped now but that’s what “drawdown fear” does to you! Anyway what I wanted to say is that I have been developing and testing a breakout trading method which is really good.
The reason I’m only trading it sparingly at the moment is because of the usual problem – fear –
I think I what I really need is one or two virtual “trading partners” so we can enter the trade together and also confirm the setup together. I did in fact try trading the system yesterday (without any stop loss) I made $400 very quickly – The problem is as I said, trading with a couple of virtual partners would provide the courage I need! – you’ll see what I mean when I explain the system.
Anyway let me know if you’re interested. If we do decide to set up a team maybe we can communicate instantly by yahoo or windows messenger.
My email address: renenconuk@yahoo.co.uk