2-25-10
3:35a GMT – I stayed out of the pair most of the day, brushing aside the fact that the more aggressive call yesterday (short at 1.3580) would have produced nice pips with my usual 40-50 pip stop. But my secondary setup (“A secondary setup is a sustained break of the lower rising trend support which I would look to produce a challenge of 1.3450″) was triggered about 4 hours ago and quickly produced the pop I was looking for, quickly putting 50 pips in my pocket.
Daily Outlook: Falling trend resistance (top blue line on chart below) continues to hold strong and cap any bullish advances. This break below 1.3500 is another bearish signal and the lowest daily close for the week, but ultimately we want a close below 1.3440 to confirm the continuation of the downtrend. 1.3450 is strong support and I will look to fade rallies that target this level.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is to look to fade rallies into the 1.3550-1.3580 resistance zone, with targets (from 1.3580) at 1.3550, 1.3520, 1.3490 and 1.3455. A more aggressive trade would be a candlestick signal at 1.3500 resistance. I would feel best about this one if price action took several hours to get up to this level, meaning bears didn’t have much strength. Finally a sustained break of 1.3450 should target 1.3410 and 1.3380.
Good pipping!
(click to enlarge)
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February 25, 2010 at 04:55
Morning PipStar Im on a roll this month but pippin aint easy!!!
February 25, 2010 at 05:25
Morning Don, love the energy as always!
February 25, 2010 at 05:07
good morning hutters and mark
thanks a lot for you mark finally i can move with your signals and i have the best trade i have ever had.
i wish for all a day full of pips
February 25, 2010 at 05:25
Morning Lotfi, glad to hear of your success. Welcome to PipHut!
February 25, 2010 at 05:14
I am on long position from 1.3550 .. is my position safe or it will fall more
Can any body help me
February 25, 2010 at 05:25
Azru, I also had potions open from yesterday. I closed them with nice profits. I suggest you to close the open position and wait for a higher price to re-enter. Like Mark’s analysis, try to enter again @ 1.358 – 1.355 Zone.
February 25, 2010 at 05:26
Azru, why did you decide to go long against the trend?
February 25, 2010 at 05:21
Good morning everybody.
I made 230 pips yesterday!!! I thought it was only 105 pips. I had two more positions open when I went to bed. But in the morning when I wake up, it was a wow. I am very happy.
Waiting for more pips today.
February 25, 2010 at 05:26
Nice job Priya!!
February 25, 2010 at 05:30
Thanks to you Mark. It was your analysis which helped me.
February 25, 2010 at 05:33
Hi Piphutters
Sat yesterday out….but sounds like that was a bad idea:)
February 25, 2010 at 14:35
My opinion is it’s always better to sit out than if your unsure. Patience is the key and there will always be another opportunity.
February 25, 2010 at 16:40
Thanks Bob …the Bernanke see-saw was doing the confidence in…:) and yes agree, We live to live another day…Sounds like an old african saying!!!
February 25, 2010 at 05:42
Hi Mark
In your daylay outlook you say ‘This break below 1.3500 is another bullish signal and the lowest daily close for the week ‘ ………should’t the bullish word be bearish?
February 25, 2010 at 05:43
Yes, thanks for catching that
February 25, 2010 at 05:47
Hi Mark,
Long time follower, first time commenter.
Firstly, thanks for the quality analysis every day. Hopefully you haven’t answered this elsewhere, but I wanted your opinion on how much trading (at least those based on your analysis) is affected if one is using sl/tp’s as opposed to actively following. My time zone conflicts with the London hours, and subsequently, most times I end up having to use preset orders.
February 25, 2010 at 15:02
Well you would definitely miss some trades during the London hours because you wouldn’t be able to react to candlestick signals. But you can trade those during the hours you are awake.
Also, if you really want to make London trades you can set alerts to wake you up if the price hits a certain level. That’s tough to do every night though.
February 25, 2010 at 06:14
Hi everyone I had a long position on GBPUSD at 15420 last night. Just got triggered and went straight down again for a nice loss. That’s what happens when you trade against the trend.
February 25, 2010 at 07:46
hi mark
i am new on yr pipm yard
Finally a sustained break of 1.3450 should target 1.3410 and 1.3380.
how did u come up pls with these 2 levels after break? the amount of previous resistance ?
thx george
February 25, 2010 at 08:24
it’s simply the next support levels when price in the past (or in the near past) had respected it
February 25, 2010 at 08:45
hi fabio,thx
but those lows r new lows,or am i wrong?
cheers
February 25, 2010 at 08:52
not really because it’s the first time in 8 months or so that the Euro is so down, so if you don’t have recent data to plot support levels, go to the past, that’s what Technical Analysis is about ;)
February 25, 2010 at 09:14
those two new low targets–the history would have to go back to may/09,,thats the only one i c :-) appreciate yr feedback
February 25, 2010 at 09:27
anytime george ;)
and welcome to piphut =)
February 25, 2010 at 07:57
Waiting to short GBP/USD @ 1.54, long USD/CHF @ 1.08, short NZD/USD @ 0.695.
Any idea on USD/JPY long @ 89 please?
February 25, 2010 at 08:27
Morning Priya
Pound looks good at 5380/70
Swissie I will take my signal from the M15/30 at about 083/20
yen looks like it might go down still — 89.90 looks good as the prev support can now turn to rest
February 25, 2010 at 08:30
Thank you Hendrik. I don’t understand JPY better. I will try.
February 25, 2010 at 13:59
Hi Priya,
Do you think the NZD/USD will go to 0.695 any time today? iam thinking of shorting it there. it gives me good pips when i profit
February 25, 2010 at 14:31
I AM NOT SURE. IF IT REACHES NEAR, I WILL GO SHORT.
February 25, 2010 at 08:17
SHORT EUR/USD NOW @ AROUND 1.35. ANYBODY WITH ME?
February 25, 2010 at 08:22
I would wait for a better resistance, but if you have reasons to short it go ahead.
February 25, 2010 at 09:39
I am waiting for enter @ 1.3510
February 25, 2010 at 09:44
Priya Are u Indian?
February 25, 2010 at 09:56
I am a human being in the first place. I don’t want to comment about it anymore. I am here for some pips. I think so are you.
February 25, 2010 at 10:13
Ok no probs.. I am also in @ 1.3507
February 25, 2010 at 13:05
Closed by position @1.3480
I will try to reenter after the US news
February 25, 2010 at 13:55
Good thing I didn’t ask either. I have a movie called Priya Saki.
Anyways, seriously…. I’m still waiting for 1.3580. Resistance playing at 1.3500 is too risky for me.
But you’ve made some good pips at 1.3500 so far. Good for you.
February 25, 2010 at 14:02
Hea are you tamil
Happy to see one tamil guy
February 25, 2010 at 16:20
Aama…naanum tamilan! hehe
February 25, 2010 at 12:05
EURUSD
Short but wait to break 1.5266 resiatans and then down to
1.523 3rd wave
good luck
February 25, 2010 at 12:06
I am sorry i mean GBPUSD
February 25, 2010 at 12:33
Thanks. I was thinking it might reach at least 1.545. Thanks for your information.
February 25, 2010 at 08:17
Hi everyone,
made +76 pips yesterday and I’m already in, I’m going long for a while, to catch some pips, already bought @1.3460 with a tight SL, already on a 30 pip profit and maybe going to put an end on it to start a wonderful breakfast.
February 25, 2010 at 08:19
well, closed, 31 pips to start the day =)
February 25, 2010 at 08:27
BRAVO.
February 25, 2010 at 08:30
thanks.
I don’t like to trade counter-trend, but 1.3535 appears to be a solid support right now, so I thought to buy for a while with a 15 pip SL.
February 25, 2010 at 08:33
It was very risky. But I like Forex because of the risk we can take. It’s very interesting.
February 25, 2010 at 08:43
Well, I’ll be back, gonna eat some breakfast.
February 25, 2010 at 08:32
I mean 1.3462 support lol
February 25, 2010 at 08:33
ATTENTION ALL SOUTH AFRICANS
Law in South Africa
Two recent court cases, have earned the attention of newspaper readers in South Africa
1. One person was fined R1 000 for not having a TV license.
2. Another was released on bail for R500 after being arrested for murder.
The moral of this South African story:
If you do not have a TV license and the inspector comes round, kill him.
You’ll save R500.
….It’s the Right Thing To Do….
February 25, 2010 at 08:36
TV License?? What is that for??
February 25, 2010 at 08:39
You can’t have a TV without a license. What is that for? — so that they can entertain one another more
February 25, 2010 at 08:42
It’s Africa man. You do not ask: “What do you sell today?”
You must say: “What do you share with me today”
February 25, 2010 at 08:50
ya, I know man, I’m sorry for that…
did you never think about leaving Africa?
February 25, 2010 at 08:58
About leaving, yes the youngsters do — a real brain drain — me, I’m too old — I’m stuck. Just look at the exchange rate R7.80 to a $
February 25, 2010 at 08:47
I’m guessing that Internet Bandwidth there is not cheap also ?
February 25, 2010 at 09:00
Yes I used to pay $40 per month for 3 gig. Now I’ve found a cheaper provider for $17 pm.
February 25, 2010 at 08:38
why do you need license for a TV ? is it A license per TV unit ?
February 25, 2010 at 08:49
LOL. Morning Mark n my distinguished pip hutters
February 25, 2010 at 16:45
Originally from north of the limpopo…so I know where you are coming from…its a different world…
February 25, 2010 at 08:55
well, now I’m gonna eat some breakfast.
I’ll be right back.
February 25, 2010 at 08:57
Hello Mark and All,
I’m new to the FX game and wishing I had found this community a couple months ago. But lessons learned the hard way are at least still learned.
Mark, “A more aggressive trade would be a candlestick signal at 1.3500 resistance. I would feel best about this one if price action took several hours to get up to this level, meaning bears didn’t have much strength.”
Is that suppose to say “… meaning bulls didn’t …”???
Thank you for your efforts with this forum. I’m looking forward to puttting your ‘trading ideas’ to work.
February 25, 2010 at 15:07
Yes, good catch
February 25, 2010 at 09:04
Good morning to you all. My opinion for today is that the price will bounce of 1.3500 resistance very early. I thing that the little upper trend line will now serve as resistance line. So be on look out.
February 25, 2010 at 09:29
Hi Pippers,
Maybe this is something stupid but………
Q: Maybe I am wrong but why is the reaction time either to go north or south (to the market) of the GBP/$ faster than the EUR/USD. I had a look at GBP and it went south and then only EUR/USD followed suit? Or is it a coincidence only??
February 25, 2010 at 09:35
because both Eur and Gbp are technically in the same zone.. I do noticed that gbpusd and eurusd most of the time are moving in the same direction.. only gbp move a lot wider.. sometimes each pair have different movement due to fundamental news.. but in the end. they will synched back together.
thats my thoughts though.. perhaps other piphutter here has a better answer than me :)
February 25, 2010 at 09:36
I think I didn’t read it correctly..
Are you talking about the difference of the drop between EUR and GBP /$? If it’s that, take a look ate the EUR/GBP
February 25, 2010 at 09:32
because the move was made because of the dollar…
February 25, 2010 at 09:45
Thanks Ifan and Fabio,
I was looking at GBP/$ and saw the drop, then I had a look at EUR/$ and i made 10 pips by anticipating a drop to follow. Maybe I am wrong but 10 pips are 10 pips????
February 25, 2010 at 09:52
What is the confirmation to conclude for a sustained break of 1.3450?
February 25, 2010 at 15:08
The conservative move is to wait for a 1-hour candle to close below.
February 25, 2010 at 09:54
long gbp/jpy at 136.38
February 25, 2010 at 10:15
Well done, nice trade Ayman, 50 pips so far, how did you spot it?
February 25, 2010 at 10:18
lower bollinger band on 1 hour and 30 mins chart was at that level, so put a bid in at that level
February 25, 2010 at 10:20
Thank you Ayman.
February 25, 2010 at 10:08
Perhaps try TINY counter-trend long position from around
89.35, off 786 and BB confluence etc. This is risky,but tiny positon and tight stop makes it worth a
bash.
February 25, 2010 at 10:16
sold gbp/aud at 1.72
February 25, 2010 at 10:22
i guess you probably wonder why i bought gbp/jpy and sold gbp/aud, there is an invesrse relationship between the two
February 25, 2010 at 10:24
Hello, just start to use your signals and i hope it can help me cause im not very likeone, need some good advice to i can make goog trades.
Regards Mark
February 25, 2010 at 10:33
testing 1.35
February 25, 2010 at 11:36
made 32 pips on gbp/aud
February 25, 2010 at 12:00
thanks a lot to piphut..it create an idea to enter the market…
February 25, 2010 at 12:06
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=250&mode=view
H1 flag, hope it goes higher but, looks fairly weak at the moment
February 25, 2010 at 12:23
Hi All,
A novice question to all. What is the best time scale chart (5 min, 10 min,1H,2H,etc)to refer EUR/USD pair for trading options for next 2 days. I am new to forex trade.
Thanks in Advance.
February 25, 2010 at 12:45
15min 30m and 1hr and a glance at 4hr 1 5 and 10m charts just make you feel active but they are not the best the most importsant thing is patience so have fun and after you profit except it and look for the next trade it doest have to be every day. and dont saturate your brain by the computer to much do some in home exercises to keep your body and mind stimulated and away from chasing the market for a trade.
February 25, 2010 at 12:24
Hi PIP hunters,
As a newbie – I’ve spent the morning on a demo account just trading using the Candlestick Alerts and now fully understand them. It’s one of the smartest information on the website and easy to understand. I highly recommend this approach to other new traders.
From this day forward I shall be known as the candlestick trader !!!
February 25, 2010 at 12:38
ha ha ha ha ha
how many pips did you candlestick trader?
February 25, 2010 at 12:45
89 pips up (132up 23 down)but It’s finally hit home that this should be a final check before entering a trade.
I’m going to have to spend time on trand analysis in the next few days.
February 25, 2010 at 12:40
Since 23/2/10 I was up 56 pips. But today my fractal ea told me to long GBPUSD at 1.5321 because RSI was at bottom. But suddenly I was down 43 pips. So I increased SL to 65 pips and survived. But it is risky. What is a reasonable SL in 4H. Can any one tell me.
Regards
February 25, 2010 at 13:01
I use 15 to 30 pips SL, depending on the risk
February 25, 2010 at 13:02
and, don’t long when the trend is going down…
It’s like swim against a big wave
February 25, 2010 at 12:41
Just to let my pip family know it’s bad weather conditions over here in new jersey and new york could have a slight effect on the market today
February 25, 2010 at 13:32
yes volume is unusually low for this time of day.
February 25, 2010 at 14:33
Yea, you guys are getting hit again. Too much more and I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas are declared a disaster area.
February 25, 2010 at 13:05
short gbp/aud at 1.7230
February 25, 2010 at 13:13
Hi Ayman, did u mean long Gbp/Aud?
February 25, 2010 at 13:28
Thanks Ayman,
Just took a quick 8 pips on gbp/aud. lol
February 25, 2010 at 13:09
How about the news today. The forex calendar has a few items listed in the next hour. Will they have much effect?
February 25, 2010 at 13:28
is there any thing i can read on how to manage my emotions?
February 25, 2010 at 13:43
Check the below post, sorry I forgot the reply button
February 25, 2010 at 14:05
Stick to Mark rules emotions can prevent some losses and it can badly prevent gains …
February 25, 2010 at 15:12
Best thing I found was journalling every trade, every day. The reasons I entered a trade and the reasons I got out. At the end of the week or month it is very telling to go back and see all the mistakes you made because of emotions and all the pips you could have had if you stuck your plan.
February 25, 2010 at 13:42
Trading in the zone by Mark Douglas.. Best I have ever read..
February 25, 2010 at 13:54
thank you Matthew. i will read it. emotions seem to be getting in the way of my trading plan. i managed to increase my demo account 10 times, but my real account……
February 25, 2010 at 14:01
I hear ya, real money changed my outlook as well.. The book goes over the emotional side of trading, and how you can over come it.. There are interviews with Mark Douglas on Google that explain his views and might help you as well..
February 25, 2010 at 14:23
Part of the journey to becoming experienced traders!
February 25, 2010 at 13:47
Am a Nigerian and a starter, am in need of an experience trader who can mentor and guide me thru on the basics. most pple in my part of the world who claim to be traders only av demo acct and most know very little or nothing about the subject matter. I really want to trade forex on line and am in need of help.
February 25, 2010 at 13:55
Segun,
You have the right place: Piphut.com. Show up everyday and participate and follow the Piphut.com analysis and signals from Mark. You will definitely start to learn forex.
Glad that you are here and good luck.
February 25, 2010 at 14:14
Welcome Segun. Read, and follow. Take your time…
February 25, 2010 at 13:56
Good Morning to all and to all Good Pips!!!
February 25, 2010 at 14:10
good morning Lisa, (for you)
I already had lunch here =P eheheh
February 25, 2010 at 14:12
Good morning Lisa
February 25, 2010 at 14:11
I’m shorting since 1.3500
How do you people doing on EUR now?
February 25, 2010 at 14:15
I am out, and looking for a good resistance to enter
February 25, 2010 at 14:18
Ben speaking yet?
February 25, 2010 at 14:24
out, waiting 1.3580 , someone trade the usd/jpy?
February 25, 2010 at 14:28
The USD/CAD is way up! Who is in on that?
February 25, 2010 at 14:38
Buy oppertunity GBP/USD 1.5271 50% weekly fibs ???????
What do you think Mark
February 25, 2010 at 15:17
Hi all
Today was definately the day to trade the GBP. In freefall against just about all currencies especially JPY!!
February 25, 2010 at 15:23
Earlier today I entered long on EURGBP at 0.8836 and closed out the trade for 5 pips profit. Don’t ask me why!!!
February 25, 2010 at 15:33
in see eur\usd has reached its bottom at 1.3450, a retest of 1.3650 is next…i think it’s time to buy lows..
February 25, 2010 at 15:45
Not until candles show that there is reversal. Remember when it can go up from 1.15 to 1.51. It can as well reverse too. So do not go against the trend. I did it before and I will not do it again, It can get ugly!!
February 25, 2010 at 15:35
1.3530 is also important to watch on EUR/USD. If not broken it will mean a fresh downward momentum as it would not retest the broken trendline. Targets then can be as low 1.30. Watch out!
February 25, 2010 at 16:02
Hey George,
How do you read teh 1.3530 trend line? From the highs of 2/23 and 2/24?
February 25, 2010 at 15:57
i am making a loss!!!
February 25, 2010 at 15:58
shorted at 1.34965 and 1.35140! Please advise whether to keep or cut loss!
February 25, 2010 at 16:05
First of all always set your stop loss before entering the trade. It is back in range of 1.3514 and may play into your 1.3496. What for signals before entering to solify your chances of making a positive trade
February 25, 2010 at 16:08
Thanks Kurt! I’m hoping it will fall even further! I’m always too greedy and I’ll usually let it run (which usually ends up in a disaster). Human psychology!!!!
February 25, 2010 at 16:02
USD/CHF thinking to long @ 1.08