Recap: Welcome back for another day PipHutters! I made some good pips yesterday off the false breakout above 1.3800. For those of you who are curious what I was looking for in the “false breakout”: 1) first off 1.38 was strong resistance so I was looking in the first place (if the s/r is not strong I don’t bother looking regardless of the other signals), 2) pair failed to close above 1.3800 on the 30m and 1h and 3) there was a shooting star on the 1h and bearish candle wicks on the 30m.
Daily Outlook: All and all the bears were able to win the day, dropping the pair about 90 pips from high to low and about 20 pips on open to close. We’re currently approaching interday rising trend support and a 61.8 fibonacci retracement as we speak, an area that I will look for a potential buying zone. A sustained break below would probably lead to a challenge of longer term rising trend support and is another area I will look for longs.
Trading Idea: More conservative trade is long from rising trend support at 1.3650. Preferred targets from 1.3655 are 1.3690, 1.3720 and 1.3750. More aggressive trade is long from 1.3700 rising trend support with targets at 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800.
Happy pipping ;)
Quick Links:
Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
Forex Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forex Forums
March 18, 2010 at 15:37
This may drop all the way to 1.3450, I am waiting for 1.3550
March 18, 2010 at 15:38
I’d close my longs for sure Frank. I’m hoping the pair reaches 1.3530
March 18, 2010 at 15:38
Who ever take this fall I congratulate him. This is nice profit. I also hopefully think it will go up again.
March 18, 2010 at 15:41
please tell me you closed your losing trade before the drop.
March 18, 2010 at 15:40
where do you see the fibs if i may ask?
seems i just made the one bad trade that makes all the good ones obsolete :-(
March 18, 2010 at 15:43
note to self: don’t forget you’re a bloody beginner!
March 18, 2010 at 15:43
It’s kinda easing up at 1.3590. On a usual day, I’d jump on a long position here. But Greece news tends to linger, and I’m not 100% confident on that either.
Wish April was over, and Greece’s woes are past.
March 18, 2010 at 15:44
Today just proved 90% FA and 10% TA. lol
March 18, 2010 at 15:46
John, it just shows FA is dominant over TA. Because the Hot Money are with the Big Fishes.
March 18, 2010 at 15:49
I disagree with that, just confirms the TA on the longer time frame charts.
March 18, 2010 at 15:52
Take a look at my daily analysis:
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/2549/eudaily318.gif
March 18, 2010 at 16:03
What are all the red horizontal lines ?
March 18, 2010 at 16:06
s/r on smaller timeframes
March 18, 2010 at 16:07
Makes you realize how fragile they are when you look at them from a larger view, eh?
March 18, 2010 at 16:09
It hasn’t broken the channel yet so it could go up.
But are you sensing that the situation in EU may be heading downwards hence the forecast of a downtrend from a break of channel?
March 18, 2010 at 19:57
I agree with Mark, as long as 1.3810-1.3830 holds, the pair is still, infact I have a sell entry @ 1.3830 which was not tripped. So until 1.3800 is broken, we’re still in a downtrend
March 18, 2010 at 15:44
could this have anything to do with it??
“Obama says health bill dramatically cuts deficit “
March 18, 2010 at 15:48
Health Bill cuts deficit? Does it? I thought vice versa.
March 18, 2010 at 15:49
That’s considered good US news to reduce deficit. Combined with bad EUR news…we’ve got powerful GIANT bears today. hehe
March 18, 2010 at 15:50
If Obama says it, it must be true ha ha
March 18, 2010 at 15:51
yeah, i dont know how that works out as well. saw it on marketwatch.
March 18, 2010 at 15:53
It’s smoke and mirrors. It cuts the deficit without looking at the money it stole from medicare. Add that back in and it won’t cut the deficit.
March 18, 2010 at 15:56
Exactly, i don’t agree it cuts deficit.
Anyway, for the F.A vs T.A thing, my take is that FA moves the market whereas TA confirms a trade. It’s like a human body, the Heart is the TA and your spirit is the FA.
Cheers Mark! You got in on 1.3590?
March 18, 2010 at 15:50
Finally it broke the daily rising wedge.. Yippee:)
March 18, 2010 at 15:53
Yes good news!
Finally some TA sense here.
March 18, 2010 at 15:51
I believe more on TA than FA, but it happens sometimes. Once Mark very well said, ” News bake in Charts”,”but it can also happen like today.
March 18, 2010 at 15:54
Yup…baked usually. But today, the molten fudge breaks out and makes a little sweet mess.
March 18, 2010 at 15:54
At last, the storm seems to settle down.
March 18, 2010 at 15:54
A Polish analyst said on http://www.stooq.pl, that a break below 1.3640 would trigger a drop by ~100pips, so somehow that was predictable. Not sure how though
March 18, 2010 at 15:54
Anyone buying on the hammer head?
March 18, 2010 at 15:56
There is doji at 30min, anybody thinking of long on next candle
March 18, 2010 at 15:57
Same thought adam. But i missed my 1.3590… took my attention off the screen.
March 18, 2010 at 15:57
I guess the chance can be taken, atleast on such a big hammer :)
March 18, 2010 at 16:00
yeap it was a hammer in the end. I’ll wait a little bit more. But looking at this chaos I thing tomorrow will be a better day. Maybe. Or won’t it’s friday. hehe.
March 18, 2010 at 16:01
Body is too big for a hammer
March 18, 2010 at 16:10
30m nice little hammer
March 18, 2010 at 16:01
TA FA? what does that mean?
March 18, 2010 at 16:02
TA = technical analysis
FA = fundamental analysis
March 18, 2010 at 16:05
O Ok thanks Mark. Did you see my post question about your arrow going down @ around 1.3700
March 18, 2010 at 16:08
No what was your question?
March 18, 2010 at 16:10
Hey Mark
Noticed your down arrow around 3700 on your chart, was thinking you meant you could have a selling opportunity on a break below 3700 but you did not state that just wondering if that was the case.
March 18, 2010 at 16:58
Yep, that is the case.
March 18, 2010 at 17:58
I see throwing us more agressive traders a bone or two
March 18, 2010 at 16:07
giving it a shot at 3595 target 3635, and did I say tight stop
March 18, 2010 at 16:10
Candles are trading outside the bolinger bands… tight stop is a good choice. Nice candle formations coming up i guess.
Cheers!
March 18, 2010 at 16:24
out at 3620 looks risky
March 18, 2010 at 16:25
At least you made some pips!
March 18, 2010 at 16:22
Im trying a long down here, IF it works out i might try to hold it for a few days see how it works out.
March 18, 2010 at 16:25
I’m looking to fade rallies.
March 18, 2010 at 16:27
@ 3650?
March 18, 2010 at 16:57
I’ll start looking at 3640, the 23.6 of yesterday’s high to today’s low
March 18, 2010 at 16:31
Any advice on how to identify that ?
March 18, 2010 at 16:44
It could play out something like this,
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=379&mode=view
March 18, 2010 at 17:03
This is a good idea. But only if it goes up. As things look it could go down more.
March 18, 2010 at 16:28
Take a fibo off the last 2 bear candles hourly.
from top to bottom.
last support is new resistance
61.8 is exact 1,3650
March 18, 2010 at 16:40
like you say i am blocked between 1.3590 and 1.3618;
if there is bad news for euro i think it will cotinue for the rest of week so what to do? get it all on short?
March 18, 2010 at 17:02
hi,every body…………………..
kudos to mark for this site ……..
then thanks to the members of pip hut community
March 18, 2010 at 17:04
1h doji, nice… hope its not a liar
March 18, 2010 at 17:08
i think it begin to move a little from resistance
what do you think?
March 18, 2010 at 17:13
thanks for all the advice.
i stayed in and actually tripled my long position and eventually reached BE.
beginner’s luck, i guess.
i guess i have to read on money management a little more.
March 18, 2010 at 17:15
exactly like you i made 3 long trades on same time
hope will not fail
March 18, 2010 at 17:21
i bailed out on BE. i consider myself lucky enough to successfully having avoided a big loss by taking a big risk.
an advanced trader would have stayed in, i guess.
but i’m a greenhorn, so to hell with whatever i could have won :-)
March 18, 2010 at 17:28
My magic crystal says that todays close will be at 1.3657
(but dont make a trade based on it)
March 18, 2010 at 17:31
IN ONE OF MY LONG TRADE I AM STILL IN WITH -66 OTHERS ARE GOOD
March 18, 2010 at 17:41
That reminds me… I have a question: why are so many ppl not using stop loss?? we can read here all too often about how someone have a huge loss or losing position.
(i dont mean to come down on anyone but please if you plan to take a position think about were you can put your stop as well)
March 18, 2010 at 17:54
that’s a good question.
i never set a S/L with the order. i usually have one set in my mind. from time to time i do not stick with it, because i think “that’s too early. it will turn soon!” and sometimes i am right.
i guess i could have avoided all of my really bad trades with a S/L, thats for sure. but i also won a considerable amount of trades because i didn’t have a S/L.
does that make any sense?
March 18, 2010 at 18:14
hehe, yes i know what you mean. I used to do the same until i learned to wait for a good position, were im not too far from good support or resistance so i can put my stop behind it. And preferebly with signal. I miss alot of trades this way, but usually the trade works out or i was completely wrong. And with the piphut money management the loss usually is BE. Thats some stuff i learned from from piphut.
I used to hate sl becouse it seamed like, if i put a sl, something magical happend and the market turns to take it out and after that goes in the direction i thought it would. But of course eventually i made big losses like that.
Anyone else know the feeling? hehe
March 18, 2010 at 18:01
yes you are right but personnaly i make sl just in some mall trade i dont make it especialy with one lt just to verify a market with it dont matter if i lose it
March 18, 2010 at 18:03
yes you are right but personnaly i make sl. just in some small trade i dont make it especialy with one lot because i use it just to verify a market and it does not matter if i lose it
March 18, 2010 at 18:17
Or as me. Put SL bu write wrong numbers from my iphone.
March 18, 2010 at 18:24
Hi Pippers i have lost only $90 to-day and is scared of trading anything.I am even to scared to go and take a bath? I do not want to get blamed by Greece for taking a bath or a nap or anything?
Is this a wait and see game> Any advice will do please.
March 18, 2010 at 19:04
Louis: same here it almost got me at 1.3600 because i set stop loss at 1.3560 is just 0.0040 away from losing…
But look like the blue bars is getting to where i started… earlier hopefully.
March 18, 2010 at 20:05
Hi Hierarchy666,
And Friday is approuching so another no trade day. But I will make up my lost bit by bit I hope or will Spain and Portugal follow suit.?????
March 18, 2010 at 20:49
Hi i just joined and i don’t know how do i get the signals? can anyone help?
March 19, 2010 at 00:18
There is a link at the top of the page on the left labeled: Free Forex signals by e-mail. I signed up, but generally, I come directly to the homepage so I have access to the comments. This is an active site, but you posted at the end of the trading day for most of the people here. If you post tomorrow when Mark (the man who runs everything), John, Tuctuc, Markus, Priya (my favorite), Matthew and the regulars are awake and trading, you will get an instant, informed response. These guys are the best.
March 19, 2010 at 00:26
You can get the signals a little bit faster by coming to the site, rather than waiting for the e-mail. When I am up past midnight (Houston, Texas), I sit on this site and hit the refresh button until the next issue is posted. Comments start being posted as soon as Mark publishes the new issue.