Recap: Welcome back for another day PipHutters! I made some good pips yesterday off the false breakout above 1.3800. For those of you who are curious what I was looking for in the “false breakout”: 1) first off 1.38 was strong resistance so I was looking in the first place (if the s/r is not strong I don’t bother looking regardless of the other signals), 2) pair failed to close above 1.3800 on the 30m and 1h and 3) there was a shooting star on the 1h and bearish candle wicks on the 30m.
Daily Outlook: All and all the bears were able to win the day, dropping the pair about 90 pips from high to low and about 20 pips on open to close. We’re currently approaching interday rising trend support and a 61.8 fibonacci retracement as we speak, an area that I will look for a potential buying zone. A sustained break below would probably lead to a challenge of longer term rising trend support and is another area I will look for longs.
Trading Idea: More conservative trade is long from rising trend support at 1.3650. Preferred targets from 1.3655 are 1.3690, 1.3720 and 1.3750. More aggressive trade is long from 1.3700 rising trend support with targets at 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800.
Happy pipping ;)
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This may drop all the way to 1.3450, I am waiting for 1.3550
I’d close my longs for sure Frank. I’m hoping the pair reaches 1.3530
Who ever take this fall I congratulate him. This is nice profit. I also hopefully think it will go up again.
please tell me you closed your losing trade before the drop.
where do you see the fibs if i may ask?
seems i just made the one bad trade that makes all the good ones obsolete :-(
note to self: don’t forget you’re a bloody beginner!
It’s kinda easing up at 1.3590. On a usual day, I’d jump on a long position here. But Greece news tends to linger, and I’m not 100% confident on that either.
Wish April was over, and Greece’s woes are past.
Today just proved 90% FA and 10% TA. lol
John, it just shows FA is dominant over TA. Because the Hot Money are with the Big Fishes.
I disagree with that, just confirms the TA on the longer time frame charts.
Take a look at my daily analysis:
What are all the red horizontal lines ?
s/r on smaller timeframes
Makes you realize how fragile they are when you look at them from a larger view, eh?
It hasn’t broken the channel yet so it could go up.
But are you sensing that the situation in EU may be heading downwards hence the forecast of a downtrend from a break of channel?
I agree with Mark, as long as 1.3810-1.3830 holds, the pair is still, infact I have a sell entry @ 1.3830 which was not tripped. So until 1.3800 is broken, we’re still in a downtrend
could this have anything to do with it??
“Obama says health bill dramatically cuts deficit “
Health Bill cuts deficit? Does it? I thought vice versa.
That’s considered good US news to reduce deficit. Combined with bad EUR news…we’ve got powerful GIANT bears today. hehe
If Obama says it, it must be true ha ha
yeah, i dont know how that works out as well. saw it on marketwatch.
It’s smoke and mirrors. It cuts the deficit without looking at the money it stole from medicare. Add that back in and it won’t cut the deficit.
Exactly, i don’t agree it cuts deficit.
Anyway, for the F.A vs T.A thing, my take is that FA moves the market whereas TA confirms a trade. It’s like a human body, the Heart is the TA and your spirit is the FA.
Cheers Mark! You got in on 1.3590?
Finally it broke the daily rising wedge.. Yippee:)
Yes good news!
Finally some TA sense here.
I believe more on TA than FA, but it happens sometimes. Once Mark very well said, ” News bake in Charts”,”but it can also happen like today.
Yup…baked usually. But today, the molten fudge breaks out and makes a little sweet mess.
At last, the storm seems to settle down.
A Polish analyst said on , that a break below 1.3640 would trigger a drop by ~100pips, so somehow that was predictable. Not sure how though
Anyone buying on the hammer head?
There is doji at 30min, anybody thinking of long on next candle
Same thought adam. But i missed my 1.3590… took my attention off the screen.
I guess the chance can be taken, atleast on such a big hammer :)
yeap it was a hammer in the end. I’ll wait a little bit more. But looking at this chaos I thing tomorrow will be a better day. Maybe. Or won’t it’s friday. hehe.
Body is too big for a hammer
30m nice little hammer
TA FA? what does that mean?
TA = technical analysis
FA = fundamental analysis
O Ok thanks Mark. Did you see my post question about your arrow going down @ around 1.3700
No what was your question?
Hey Mark
Noticed your down arrow around 3700 on your chart, was thinking you meant you could have a selling opportunity on a break below 3700 but you did not state that just wondering if that was the case.
Yep, that is the case.
I see throwing us more agressive traders a bone or two
giving it a shot at 3595 target 3635, and did I say tight stop
Candles are trading outside the bolinger bands… tight stop is a good choice. Nice candle formations coming up i guess.
Cheers!
out at 3620 looks risky
At least you made some pips!
Im trying a long down here, IF it works out i might try to hold it for a few days see how it works out.
I’m looking to fade rallies.
@ 3650?
I’ll start looking at 3640, the 23.6 of yesterday’s high to today’s low
Any advice on how to identify that ?
It could play out something like this,
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=379&mode=view
This is a good idea. But only if it goes up. As things look it could go down more.
Take a fibo off the last 2 bear candles hourly.
from top to bottom.
last support is new resistance
61.8 is exact 1,3650
like you say i am blocked between 1.3590 and 1.3618;
if there is bad news for euro i think it will cotinue for the rest of week so what to do? get it all on short?
hi,every body…………………..
kudos to mark for this site ……..
then thanks to the members of pip hut community
1h doji, nice… hope its not a liar
i think it begin to move a little from resistance
what do you think?
thanks for all the advice.
i stayed in and actually tripled my long position and eventually reached BE.
beginner’s luck, i guess.
i guess i have to read on money management a little more.
exactly like you i made 3 long trades on same time
hope will not fail
i bailed out on BE. i consider myself lucky enough to successfully having avoided a big loss by taking a big risk.
an advanced trader would have stayed in, i guess.
but i’m a greenhorn, so to hell with whatever i could have won :-)
My magic crystal says that todays close will be at 1.3657
(but dont make a trade based on it)
IN ONE OF MY LONG TRADE I AM STILL IN WITH -66 OTHERS ARE GOOD
That reminds me… I have a question: why are so many ppl not using stop loss?? we can read here all too often about how someone have a huge loss or losing position.
(i dont mean to come down on anyone but please if you plan to take a position think about were you can put your stop as well)
that’s a good question.
i never set a S/L with the order. i usually have one set in my mind. from time to time i do not stick with it, because i think “that’s too early. it will turn soon!” and sometimes i am right.
i guess i could have avoided all of my really bad trades with a S/L, thats for sure. but i also won a considerable amount of trades because i didn’t have a S/L.
does that make any sense?
hehe, yes i know what you mean. I used to do the same until i learned to wait for a good position, were im not too far from good support or resistance so i can put my stop behind it. And preferebly with signal. I miss alot of trades this way, but usually the trade works out or i was completely wrong. And with the piphut money management the loss usually is BE. Thats some stuff i learned from from piphut.
I used to hate sl becouse it seamed like, if i put a sl, something magical happend and the market turns to take it out and after that goes in the direction i thought it would. But of course eventually i made big losses like that.
Anyone else know the feeling? hehe
yes you are right but personnaly i make sl just in some mall trade i dont make it especialy with one lt just to verify a market with it dont matter if i lose it
yes you are right but personnaly i make sl. just in some small trade i dont make it especialy with one lot because i use it just to verify a market and it does not matter if i lose it
Or as me. Put SL bu write wrong numbers from my iphone.
Hi Pippers i have lost only $90 to-day and is scared of trading anything.I am even to scared to go and take a bath? I do not want to get blamed by Greece for taking a bath or a nap or anything?
Is this a wait and see game> Any advice will do please.
Louis: same here it almost got me at 1.3600 because i set stop loss at 1.3560 is just 0.0040 away from losing…
But look like the blue bars is getting to where i started… earlier hopefully.
Hi Hierarchy666,
And Friday is approuching so another no trade day. But I will make up my lost bit by bit I hope or will Spain and Portugal follow suit.?????
Hi i just joined and i don’t know how do i get the signals? can anyone help?
There is a link at the top of the page on the left labeled: Free Forex signals by e-mail. I signed up, but generally, I come directly to the homepage so I have access to the comments. This is an active site, but you posted at the end of the trading day for most of the people here. If you post tomorrow when Mark (the man who runs everything), John, Tuctuc, Markus, Priya (my favorite), Matthew and the regulars are awake and trading, you will get an instant, informed response. These guys are the best.
You can get the signals a little bit faster by coming to the site, rather than waiting for the e-mail. When I am up past midnight (Houston, Texas), I sit on this site and hit the refresh button until the next issue is posted. Comments start being posted as soon as Mark publishes the new issue.
This is a great site for new traders. Some of the comments will really get you thinking, and all of the people are nice. My favorite game is to predict what Mark’s analysis will be. Everyone uses the same standard tools, but we come to different conclusions. If you can start to think like an expert (your analysis of the market), you will start to trade like an expert.