Recap: First off, thanks for all of the well-wishes yesterday. Even when ill I always have an eye on the charts ;). Unfortunately our signal was not tripped yesterday as the pair charged through our aggressive support zone (1.3660-1.3690) without ever turning up a buy signal, and our conservative long at 1.3600 was never hit. Overall it was a bearish day for the pair as it closed 100 pips below the open price. It finally found support off of a 61.8% fibonacci retracement (of 3/10 low to 3/12 high).
Daily Outlook: The pair is more or less ranging at the moment as traders attempt to digest the complex fundamental environment. As most know I view the short-term bullish technicals as a retracement and expect the USD to resume its gains in the longer term picture. We do have some major news events tomorrow that could help shape the market – the largest of which is the USD interest rate decision at 19:15 gmt along with the FOMC minute. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged but the FOMC minutes could go a long way to putting the USD back on its bullish path (e.g. depending on how strong they describe the US economy’s growth, this could be taken as evidence that the Fed will raise rates .75 points by year’s end). Read more about the news events at the Forex Calendar here.
Technically the picture is mixed but more short term bullish than bearish.
Trading Idea: My primary trade is the same as yesterday: a long from rising trend support currently at 1.3600. Preferred targets from this area are 1.3625, 1.3660, 1.3690. However if the pair rises before sinking I will consider a more aggressive short (with confirmation) in the 1.3700-1.3725 resistance zone. Ideally in that setup the pair would continue to trickle upwards before kicking a shooting star or other bearish candlestick. Short targets from 1.3700 are 1.3670, 1.3640 and 1.3610.
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March 16, 2010 at 19:54
I’m surprised at this late of US session that it’s creeping somewhat towards 1.3800.
March 16, 2010 at 19:57
lets see what happens at 1.3800 on euro and 1.5278 on cable .
i will be looking for a aggressive short with a tight target and stoploss .
March 16, 2010 at 20:02
You guys are not trading in cad/usd? I want to trade atleast 1 winning trade after 3 losing trades today.
March 16, 2010 at 20:18
Ado,
what is your trading idea on the usd/cad
March 16, 2010 at 20:17
Hey Ado, The usd/cad is very intriguing as it hasn’t been this low since 7-24-08.
March 16, 2010 at 20:20
Hmmmm, Edward I was thinking to go long at 1.0135, with a SL 1.0127 which is its S2.
March 16, 2010 at 20:46
Ado, I agree, it’s been holding tight in the low 1.0140 range and 0.135 with a tight SL might work. Over the last few days, it’s made a few mini long runs.