Yesterday Recap: Pretty good day of trading yesterday as 3 trades were triggered as I capitalized on the tightening consolidation pattern of the pair. First was the aggressive sell triggered by the bearish break of 1.3580, which dropped for a quick 30 pips to rising support. That activated the primary long at 1.3550 which rose for 100 pips.
Daily Outlook: Despite the large up and down swing the daily outlook didn’t change a bit – the pair continues to consolidate in a tight triangle pattern with the overall downtrend still intact. I will look for a false breakout to occur to the topside, possibly even challenge the stronger falling trend resistance on the daily charts (you can just see the top of it – its the top blue line) currently around 1.3700.
Trading Idea: Not as aggressive today as we are running out of room to maneuver in this pattern. Primary trade is a short on a signal under 1.3700 resistance, with targets at 1.3670, 1.3640, 1.3605 and eventually 1.3560. Secondary trade is a bearish break of 1.3620 support could trigger a run to the trend support again (currently at 1.3570).
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March 11, 2010 at 06:45
Hi Mark
I don’t post here very often but your comments are always the first thing I read when I turn my PC on in the morning. Thanks for the invaluable lessons every day, I’m a far better trader for them!
Mike
March 11, 2010 at 06:56
Mark thank you very much, I’m learning a lot on this website.
you’re doing a great job, thanks again
March 11, 2010 at 06:58
Hi Mark!
Help me digesting ur trading idea today.
right now i should wait wheater it break 1.3620 or candle comformation around 1.3700?
Am i rite Mark?
by this time, it was around 1.3630.
March 11, 2010 at 06:59
Rafi, yes that is my plan
March 11, 2010 at 07:12
Thanks Mark!
March 11, 2010 at 06:58
Thanks Mike and Zid, glad I can help. It’s always nice to hear from the “silent” crowd now and again. Happy pipping today!
March 11, 2010 at 07:27
Good morning Mark.I have a question.
You mentioned that a bearish break of support level at around 1.3620 might occur.
Why did you choose that level?Is it simply because it is a support level or did you go back in time for more information?
Thank you kindly!
Intraday.
March 11, 2010 at 14:24
Support level that I saw a specific pattern I look for that might indicate a *pop* if broken
March 11, 2010 at 07:33
Approaching the 1.3620 support.. will it break or bounce?….
March 11, 2010 at 07:51
it looks like it will break………
March 11, 2010 at 07:58
Its bouncing a bit although im still unsure which way it will go at the moment.
March 11, 2010 at 07:55
Great daily commentary. It helps my narrow my focus to one or two simple ideas. Thanks Mark
March 11, 2010 at 14:25
You’re welcome Terry, and happy pipping :)
March 11, 2010 at 08:01
It has gone back to 1.36320 !!! What should be further trading idea? Mark, I would like to know, for what time zone we should look your signals. I am in India, I get your signals around 11 am IST. Normally when i look your signals, one or two level targets already been hit. How do I look up this matter?
March 11, 2010 at 14:26
Nitesh, in today’s primary trade idea I was looking for a rise and then a sell. Please read the FAQ and the READ ME (under QUICK LINKS beneath the signal).
March 11, 2010 at 08:35
Good morning pipstars hope you are all well = )
March 11, 2010 at 08:48
long time reader first time contributor
Seems it is finding it hard to break the .50 mark again – this and the AUS/USD have had an amazingly strong correlation – short Aussie at the moment
March 11, 2010 at 09:29
Hi Mark I have been working on my charts the H1 and have plotted a falling trend resistance from december untill now and then have zoomed in and have plotted a falling and rising trend over the short term (from the end of feb) Then various support and resistance levels from 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3580, 1.3620, 1.3680, 1.3700 and finally 1.3800 after establishing which of these is current support and resistance i am then waiting for the formation of a good bullish/bearish candle to form near to either before going short or long. Im hoping that this is along the right lines for a very basic trading strategy?
Hopefull i am going to get time to learn about pivot points and fib levels in the near future. And learn how to post my graphs onto the site as i dont know how too at the moment!!
Regards for your hard work and dedication with the pip hut forum
Graham
March 11, 2010 at 14:28
Great work Graham, the only thing I would recommend is that in general its better to only trade in the direction of the trend.
March 11, 2010 at 15:21
Thanks Mark, when trading with the trend do you mean the long term trend? At the moment i am going short as the long term picture is down,
thanks again
Graham
March 11, 2010 at 10:08
There are a lot of News for USD will coming out soon? Right?
Should we wait for news?
Thanks
March 11, 2010 at 10:20
Trade balance and jobs i think, this afternoon …
March 11, 2010 at 10:25
Short opportunity presenting itself. Lets hope it completes.
March 11, 2010 at 10:29
i have my eyes on it! lets see
March 11, 2010 at 10:38
this 1hr candle is beginning to look pretty good
March 11, 2010 at 10:46
hi tuctuc,
yeah its shaping up nicely – tails is nearly touching 1.3670 it looks like a nice setup = )
March 11, 2010 at 10:52
GBP/JPY and possible gbp/usd also as i have a 1.5020 as a resistance level which it is just pushing through
March 11, 2010 at 10:57
i see what you mean Graham B
March 11, 2010 at 11:02
Well im in going down so hopefully the candles will be a bit more reliable today!
March 11, 2010 at 11:03
me to I took it short with a tight target … and tight stop loss
March 11, 2010 at 11:14
That was a lovley looking shooting star!!!
March 11, 2010 at 11:20
I’d like to see the 5085 area on the pound, lots of news will be out soon, which should put all these high flyers back down to earth
March 11, 2010 at 11:07
shooting star hourly??
Anyone shorting?
March 11, 2010 at 11:17
Get out of those shorts, I think it’s going all the way up
March 11, 2010 at 11:22
I agree, look at the bullflag on H1
March 11, 2010 at 11:29
There is still news to come this afternoon which shold be usd positive which will drive the euro down, you never know though!
March 11, 2010 at 11:20
gpb/usd is testing the falling trend resistance high off 22 feb and the high off 8 march .
March 11, 2010 at 11:31
good catch, I see it now, I’m in at 5057 and 5053
March 11, 2010 at 14:10
nice its paying off didnt it
March 11, 2010 at 14:19
I’m glad you saw that, I wasn’t set up for it
March 11, 2010 at 11:21
stopped by tight SL.. got a wierd feeling about this. bear is not strong enough
March 11, 2010 at 11:26
its still under the falling trend resistance . its testing it right now .
March 11, 2010 at 11:33
I agree hopefully it will go down, im not cutting my losses just yet, gonna play it out a bit …
March 11, 2010 at 11:21
May I know which platform does not lag during transaction? FXCM is seriously lagging now. I can’t do anything about my trade!! ARGH!!
March 11, 2010 at 11:29
Hi Glenn,
are you use FXCM metatrader 4 platform?
March 11, 2010 at 12:14
No, I’m using FXCM micro trading station
March 11, 2010 at 11:35
I always sign out and immediately back in again..problem solved.
March 11, 2010 at 11:39
That must be on demo if its your live account i should get outta there.
March 11, 2010 at 11:35
gpb/usd is testing the falling trend resistance high off 22 feb and the high off 8 march .
and this candle on the 1 our is also a beginning setup
March 11, 2010 at 11:43
you think i should get out??
March 11, 2010 at 12:20
Make a good calculation off what u can lose and what your happy with winning.
then just let it rol
im still in and took another short on the resitance line 1,3665.
moneymanagment is the holygrail
March 11, 2010 at 15:20
Stayed in and got a few 20 to be presise but im happy with that as a learner : )
March 11, 2010 at 11:54
Hello Friends,
If I am not wrong, in the 1 Hour chart of GBP/JPY, there is a double bottom at the 1.3389 price range. Kindly confirm, Thanks.
March 11, 2010 at 12:27
downtrend on the higher TF
Here’s a setup on a good risk reward trade
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=263&mode=view
March 11, 2010 at 12:27
Nothing from trading EURUSD today. Moving to some other pair even I just love trading EURUSD. Hmmm. Or just to go out for a coffee?
March 11, 2010 at 12:37
Good Morning, Everyone!!! I hope you have a full day of pips.
March 11, 2010 at 12:42
Hey Lisa,
Finally a day, I can look for pips. I hope its a good one…
March 11, 2010 at 13:10
Kurt,
Yes, I would like to get in on a good trade today. I just really haven’t been able to focus as I wish. I went to one funeral last weekend and my brother is currently terminal ill in the hospital so I am in and out alot.
Good luck to you.
March 11, 2010 at 13:15
LOOOONGGG into the news – who’s having it ?
March 11, 2010 at 13:31
That was the right call so far…
March 11, 2010 at 14:02
Scalping the news is a buzz – I got out in time, dont worry
March 11, 2010 at 13:56
Hope you got out, maybe even got a few pips on the fast drop, and possibly back upward again….
March 11, 2010 at 13:40
price moving.. don’t know long or short :P
March 11, 2010 at 13:44
a possible head and shoulders from 16:00 gmt yesterday?
March 11, 2010 at 13:44
That short is paying off finally
March 11, 2010 at 13:46
specially gpb/usd
March 11, 2010 at 13:47
Yup
March 11, 2010 at 13:52
The price move so fast :(
March 11, 2010 at 14:01
too speed, no signal argh :p
March 11, 2010 at 14:02
the price is heading back towards the 1.3620 support. will it bounce or break.
March 11, 2010 at 14:06
finally some action :-)
March 11, 2010 at 14:10
Will we see the bearish break of 1.3620 right here?
March 11, 2010 at 14:13
i think it will because it has come down with a lot of momentum from the day’s high
March 11, 2010 at 14:16
Bears need to have a good push.. Either poop or get off the pot..
March 11, 2010 at 14:17
BTW good morning everyone.. I hope you are all having a wonderful day..:)
March 11, 2010 at 14:25
Good morning Matthew. Resistance at 1.3650. May push the 1.3620 again
March 11, 2010 at 14:43
Good morning Kurt,, I think it will to. We are in such a tight range now, it’s like two badgers in a cage.. Fun to watch..
March 11, 2010 at 14:56
It is. So I am not trading the small range. It needs to break out or have a larger range. Make it happen!
March 11, 2010 at 14:30
My short entry at 1.3690 came within a few hairs of being tripped..
March 11, 2010 at 14:46
Hello Mark,
If EURUSD hold here 1.3640/60 could we see push higher to 1.3800?
March 11, 2010 at 14:48
Sure we could, 1.3700 and 1.3740 need to be broken first though.
March 11, 2010 at 14:50
Thanks Mark, but I’d like to see 1.3620 break out prefer…
March 11, 2010 at 14:57
Close but no cigar! That would have been a fast 50 pips…
March 11, 2010 at 14:50
‘ll 1.3620 hold?
March 11, 2010 at 14:51
hi mark,if 1,3620 hold,do you think a buy is too risky or better wait 1,3570?
thanks
eric
March 11, 2010 at 14:59
Its certainly aggressive, but with a tight stop loss, you could reap some profitable pips if it pushed to 1.3650 / 1.3700
March 11, 2010 at 14:59
It’s risky. It would be hard to get a good risk/reward with that falling resistance in place too.
March 11, 2010 at 15:04
thanks everybody,
i didn’t touch 1,3620 anyway..so no worries.waiting to be back at 1,37..
again thanks mark
March 11, 2010 at 15:06
I agree with Mark :) Better wait more.
March 11, 2010 at 15:13
Always agree with Mark! That is a winning strategy :)
March 11, 2010 at 15:23
Who’s Mark? Just kidding :)…. Yeh I am off the pot till this thing gives me something to believe in.. Watching the badgers can be fun but I don’t want to get bit by one..
March 11, 2010 at 15:16
The upward will be more clearly if the EURUSD hold above 1.3645 but we could see EURUSD break that trend line once when fell from 1.3690. Too risky if you want to enter long here. I’m still like to re-short if the candle confirm again.
March 11, 2010 at 16:07
I guess we will miss 1.3690 or 1.3700.
On to our next watch – 1.3620
March 11, 2010 at 16:08
Its not over yet ;)
March 11, 2010 at 16:12
With this much ranging going on, I don’t think 1.3690 and above are out yet…
March 11, 2010 at 16:29
bullish flag on min charts after doji closes maybe up to 1.7ish… maybe, hehe
March 11, 2010 at 16:30
the biggest problem is that it’s late and who wants to keep the position overnight?not me…
March 11, 2010 at 16:32
Only 11:30 AM here. ;)
March 11, 2010 at 16:40
Only 9:30am here.
March 11, 2010 at 16:34
Everyone see the bearish hanging man on 30m charts last candle?
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
March 11, 2010 at 16:38
yupp, saw it and shortet
March 11, 2010 at 16:41
So, you already believe in a short now?
March 11, 2010 at 16:44
well it is a hanging man, hanging high. Would prefered it to be on 1h but, its worth shot.
March 11, 2010 at 16:48
Good for you. Doesn’t it look like a hanging man is forming on the 1hour too right now?
March 11, 2010 at 16:50
I closed on the re-rally with a small profit locked. I’ll look to re-enter shortly. Markets are pretty volatile right now.
March 11, 2010 at 16:50
I have been catching shorts from the trend line down to mid resistance at 1.3655.. That last one did not make it all the way down. I am going to stop now I am not sure how long my luck will last.
March 11, 2010 at 16:50
gone short at 1.36718, any advice?
March 11, 2010 at 16:52
People usually ask for advice before entering a trade ;)
March 11, 2010 at 16:49
I think its too volatile today. Bulls are winning over Bears so far. A nice round bottom for EUR/USD (1.3530) with rising low. Looks like EUR is headed for 1.37. I will take the call only after decisive moment. This volatility can hit stops either way so be cautious.
March 11, 2010 at 16:51
seen it but its just crossed 1,3650 and the falling resistance. so i will wait for a candle at 1,3700.
good luck with the short…….
March 11, 2010 at 16:57
Dear Friends,
I have a question, In 4 Hour Chart there is a nice hanging man in the GBP/JPY pair, and it was a very nice signal for short, but now a blue candle is forming which is getting bigger than hanging man, so the worth of the Hanging Man is finished ? Kindly reply
March 11, 2010 at 17:04
I generally consider quality hanging men as valid until the top wick is broken.
March 11, 2010 at 17:10
Which makes this invalid which leads you to go long ?
March 11, 2010 at 17:14
No and no. The high on that hanging man was 1.36.49 – that was not broken in the current candle. And even if it did I am not looking to go long on the GBP/JPY pair.
March 11, 2010 at 17:58
HI by the wick broken do you mean that the next candle goes higher , then drops? Thanks Graham
March 11, 2010 at 17:10
Thank you Mark for your kind reply, really learning a lot from you.
March 11, 2010 at 17:13
Anyone entered on that doji? i could use some company, hehe.
March 11, 2010 at 17:15
I re-entered on the 1h alert
March 11, 2010 at 17:24
Hey Mark just out of curiosity how long does it take for the candle alert to hit the page.. I looked right after the close and did not see it there.. It probably takes a min or two right.
March 11, 2010 at 17:26
This last one updated the server 59 seconds after the hour
March 11, 2010 at 17:27
Cool, thanks,, :)
March 11, 2010 at 17:33
30m just updated within 1 second of candle close. I just changed something on the 1h so it should update within 1 second as well. Or I broke it, we’ll find out ;)
March 11, 2010 at 17:15
Yep:)
March 11, 2010 at 17:18
I am hiding my SL behind the trend line..
March 11, 2010 at 17:20
Grreat!
March 11, 2010 at 17:21
Brothers in arms lol:)
March 11, 2010 at 17:30
I don’t know how you guys do it. If I had more to trade with, I’d be scalping $10 to $20 at a time by now. But, with my mini account, I have to sit out on tight ranges like today.
OH….what happened to our strong downtrend from Feb ??
March 11, 2010 at 17:35
We’re still in a downtrend long-term but we’re in a consolidation period right now. It’s similar to what happened between Dec 22 and Jan 13 on the daily chart.
March 11, 2010 at 17:45
why do u have to sit out? big spread?
March 11, 2010 at 17:46
no…spread is only 2 pips.
Just no big movement – small range.