3-4-10
4:17a GMT – Euro bulls were able to extend the rally past 1.3700 resistance yesterday. I had a small position much lower down on a bearish doji that was stopped on a very tight stop and did not enter at 1.3700 as their was no candlestick signal to confirm the trade. The Greek worries were set aside for a bit yesterday as risk sentiment improved and the US dollar sank accordingly. Greece is just the tip of the iceberg however, with problems in Portugal, Italy and Spain (PIGS for short) on the horizon. EU is in a bind because aiding Greece is in their best interests in the short-term but long-term how will they respond if one of the other PIGS countries needs help?
Daily Outlook: I’ve posted a possible weekly scenario below for everyone to look at, and circled the double dojis that give me pause and make me concerned this bullish sentiment could continue for a few more days. The pair is still capped by a falling trend resistance on the daily chart however.
Trading Idea: I will play it cautious today as the short-term trend exposes itself. No need to risk my capital on a 50/50 toss. The primary trade I will look for is a short near falling trend resistance (falling blue line below on 1h chart) which is around 1.3800. 1.3800 is also resistance from mid-February. From 1.3800 at 1.3765, 1.3730 and 1.3700. If you are feeling aggressive a long in the 1.3600 area offers a good shot at jumping back up, but I will not be taking that trade.
(click to enlarge)
Weekly Chart with Bullish Dojis:
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March 4, 2010 at 06:07
Thank you Mark!
I like it when you give advice for the agrressive traders…
:)
March 4, 2010 at 06:13
EURUSD further down as asian markets down!
March 4, 2010 at 06:17
Morning all. Pivot point I’ve got at 1.3674
It’s right there now and fighting! If it stays above 1.3674 it’s a day to go long Goes below 1.3674 it’s a shorts day
March 4, 2010 at 06:33
Shorted at 1.36805. Still waiting for it to fall further.
March 4, 2010 at 06:39
Morning PIpStars
March 4, 2010 at 07:08
Morning piphuters
For NFP Tomorrow what a good pair to trading n’ what about yours prediction?
Thank’s a lot…
March 4, 2010 at 07:56
It is really no time to trade now. These few days we should wait. I was just thinking these days. There is lot of problems in all of countrys around the world. Everyone is some kinnd of debth. I really think that money system we all know will stop to exist. It will break down eventualy. Momey is becoming more virtual and with that it’s loosing it’s power.
March 4, 2010 at 08:01
It is when forex is in chaos that I step in to trade! HAHAHAHA. If money becomes virtual, the world might really end in chaos.
March 4, 2010 at 09:57
Isn’t money all ready virtual. Only 1% of money is in paper form. Everything else is in computer numbers. money is virtual. Look at forex. You have leverage up to 500. Isn’t that virtual. You are trading with money that you do not have.
March 4, 2010 at 10:06
Mmm.. I never really think much about money. Most of the things in this world need money. Oh well, we’re all out to make money and enjoy playing forex. Let’s enjoy ourselves instead!
March 4, 2010 at 07:56
Good morning pipstars
March 4, 2010 at 07:58
Could anyone please tell me, which Pivot Point I should follow, Daily or Hourly ? Here I got Daily PP for eur/usd is 1.3674 as Terry also mentioned, whereas Hourly PP is 1.3660.
March 4, 2010 at 11:40
Ado – I use daily
March 4, 2010 at 08:03
Good morning,all
March 4, 2010 at 09:13
shorted at 1.36608! Let it fall!!!!
March 4, 2010 at 09:58
I’m in with you :) @1.6602
March 4, 2010 at 10:04
eh!? 1.6602!?!?! DId you type wrongly? Hahahaha
March 4, 2010 at 10:05
Oh sorry :)) 1.36602 haha
March 4, 2010 at 10:07
muahahaha… I’m gonna hold till it reaches about 30 pips or more. Down euro down!
March 4, 2010 at 10:12
Argh, that was some crazy bull run in a few minutes
March 4, 2010 at 10:43
Lost 15 pips! *gggrrrrr*
March 4, 2010 at 10:48
why did u short at 1.3660?
March 4, 2010 at 10:52
Based on my triangle formation for 1 minute chart. But it was short lived. Bleah. Sucky.
March 4, 2010 at 10:58
If you are trading the 1M chart I would look for short gains, and tight SL’s. If you are risking 15 pips, what was your reward TP?
March 4, 2010 at 11:01
My take profit was 25 pips. Probably too high. I should set it to minimum 12 pips, I guessed?
March 4, 2010 at 11:25
I watch constantly and take profit when I see a turn keep a tight stop loss of 10 or less
March 4, 2010 at 10:57
i think we have a Resistance 1.3635
March 4, 2010 at 11:00
i mean support
March 4, 2010 at 11:07
Hi Mark
I have just started to keep a diary of my activities starting from today. I have put the candles indicators that are shown on this site on the front page for a quickguide and am now re-working my trading plan to make it stronger after reading the ‘win more trades section’ hopefully this will improve my chances of becoming more successful!
Thank you for piphut it is really helping me!!
(just as a side note i thought the top piphutters correlated to how many pips people had collected – i see now that it is how many comments posted – hope im not putting up too many questions and annoying everyone lol)
March 4, 2010 at 11:14
=X
You just made me realised that! It’s embarrassing when i’m a newbie in forex and losing money as opposed to being the one that posted often!
March 4, 2010 at 11:49
Hi glen im new too, trying to learn though, think the softly – softly approach is working for me though, hanging out here and looking at what others have to say helps. Im trying to make my own judgements as a think that i need to be able to stand on my own two feet lol!! Its great to have a site like this to visit though! Hope your FX goes well, Graham
March 4, 2010 at 11:24
Good luck Graham B. You can also start a trading log in the forum section as well. Hendrik and others have commented that it will really help you in the long run…
March 4, 2010 at 11:07
Hi everyone.
Anyone knows of a good pivotpoint indicator for mt4? tired of calculating pp´s everyday, seams as it should be easy and quick job for a small program.
March 4, 2010 at 11:16
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=131
Markus try this one,
BTW, I wish you could post some charts now and then as several of your comments pertaining to TA have value in them.
March 4, 2010 at 11:27
I got mine from my broker tools. See if you broker already has one that you just plug in MT4…
March 4, 2010 at 11:45
Hi Markus,
you might try google for “Pivot Lines Timezone” adjustable pivots to your timezone..
I also combine it with “SuperSR_6″ google that also..
quite helpful for my support/resistance reference.
or if you want me to email them to you..
March 4, 2010 at 11:22
Hi Markus,
I’m using indicators from forex factory (THV system)… I’m quite happy with them… among others you’ll find as well Pivot indicators… if you have trouble in finding them contact me over skype (dragan_posao) and I’ll send it to you…
br,
dragan
March 4, 2010 at 11:24
David’s one is as well nice…
March 4, 2010 at 11:58
Anyone checking on the gbp/usd (cable is this?) I beleivge that there is a shooting star forming? Anyone got any comments?
March 4, 2010 at 12:30
Thanx everyone for your answers very helpful, got it now.
March 4, 2010 at 13:09
Pls, can somebody tell me the current price now,I don’t have access to my pc now.tnz
March 4, 2010 at 13:12
1.3666
March 4, 2010 at 13:19
1.3662 will there be anything else sir? hehe
March 4, 2010 at 13:45
@Markus
Ditt riktiga namn råkar inte va Peter?
/M
March 4, 2010 at 14:24
why is the traffic so low today?
does any body know what Jean-Claude Trichet has said and how it will affect the EUR/USD?
thanks
March 4, 2010 at 14:39
Yeah, i would like to know as well
March 4, 2010 at 14:34
Hehe, nope real name is Markus
March 4, 2010 at 13:55
Did the bulls get to 1.3775?
If not where did they bears took over?
March 4, 2010 at 14:26
no the rate did not go that high
the bulls ended at 1.3736.
March 4, 2010 at 15:43
you r right
March 4, 2010 at 15:24
Anyone know of a delta charts platform for forex?
March 4, 2010 at 15:34
price is aprroaching 1.3583 been a good run down since the candle stick alert (im not in tho just watching!) wondering how far it will go if it breaks and if it will go back up again! hope everyone is having a good day : )
March 4, 2010 at 15:45
I wonder who’s feeling aggresive and going long from 1.3600
March 4, 2010 at 15:56
I’m waiting to see what the candle is like on the H1 if it is a good bullish one then i am going to go long trailing my limit upto 1.3700 and hiding my stop behind the 1.3580 resistance?
March 4, 2010 at 16:02
if i get a nice good candle in this area i might long
March 4, 2010 at 16:04
a 30m hammer…
I’m already in for some pip-snacks
March 4, 2010 at 16:31
good luck ifan, hope i dont miss it… im gonna wait for 1h candle.
March 4, 2010 at 16:34
well… got stopped break even.. lol.. worth a shot though
March 4, 2010 at 16:16
Not me, We are still in a downtrend and according to my charts the last 1 hour candle is still below the bottom bollinger band.
March 4, 2010 at 16:30
I dont know much about bollinger bands, but isnt that signal to buy?
March 4, 2010 at 16:47
If it’s outside the band then it’s an indicator that it is trending strongly. I don’t use BB’s as an end all but I have found them useful as an indicator. Works for me, and apparently, seems how the price just dropped through the floor, I’m glad I used it LOL.
March 4, 2010 at 16:34
Hello everybody,
I lost 200 pips in two trades. and made 200 pips in 4 trades. So it is a break even for the week so far. My target is to maake at least 1000 pips per month.
I am waiting to short again EUR/USD, GBP/USD and long USD/CHF, USD/CAD. I am already in on USD/CHF short @ 1.070. If price breaks below 1.065, I will go a long at that poing.
Any suggestions?
March 4, 2010 at 16:39
What happend to the hot streak ?
March 4, 2010 at 16:57
Oh no. Sometimes I lose the trade. No problem.
One thing you must know. It is difficult to win all the trades. But forex is the only place where you can have lots of opportunities.
March 4, 2010 at 16:44
ur short on usdchf from 1.07 hehe, i think its a typo.. right?
March 4, 2010 at 16:59
Oh yes. I am sorry for the mistake. Off course I am long. If the price breaks below 1.065, I will try to go long again.
March 4, 2010 at 17:22
mm, i thought so. i dont expect a crazy trade like that from u, hehe
March 4, 2010 at 17:34
LOL
March 4, 2010 at 16:35
I wish to have signal on USD/CHF or GBP/USD, how do i get it pls. Thanks
March 4, 2010 at 17:07
There is a site where you can find GBP/USD signals. I don’t follow it because, it is confusing. If you observe the price is 1.5030 at the moment, but he says to go long GBP/USD @ 1.5080. I don’t understand this.
However, If the same pair reaches that high, I would probably sell not buy now.
Follow EUR/USD signals here in piphut, EUR/USD is something like a guide for you to trade other pairs.
GBP/USD is a very volatile pair. At the moment I am long on USD/CHF @ 1.070.
March 4, 2010 at 16:38
Use the candlesticks Olukayode ! Use the the candlestick !
March 4, 2010 at 16:45
May the pip be with you
March 4, 2010 at 17:28
And also with you !
Lol
March 4, 2010 at 16:56
I think im enough for today.. getting sleepy.. considering the friday’s NFP, might as well enough for the week also, just watch & see. planning for next week strategies..
wishing you all a happy & safe trading
March 4, 2010 at 17:25
Have a great weekend!
March 4, 2010 at 17:10
Closed USD/CHF long with 70 pips profit. Don’t want to be greedy. Waiting to re-enter at lower price.
March 4, 2010 at 17:19
Closed short,,, on second bounce off of the 60 fibo level, nice pips today on pound and Eur…..
March 4, 2010 at 17:23
Wondering if most of you wait for a confirming candle to close (candle following the signal candle)before trading a candle alert?
March 4, 2010 at 17:30
Leading up to the hangman candle on the hourly chart the 30 min chart had a bunch of shooting stars,, I figured that was a good trade to risk a couple of pips on.. Yes it is best to wait for confirmation..
March 4, 2010 at 17:31
Time for the weekend movie. Good night everybody.
March 4, 2010 at 17:32
bye Priya,, You have a wonderful weekend..
March 4, 2010 at 17:34
Good night Matthew.
March 4, 2010 at 17:35
But Priya it is still morning time..lol;) Ok well maybe not where you live.. :)
March 4, 2010 at 17:44
OOPS!!! It’s 8:45 pm here.
March 4, 2010 at 17:46
see ya later!
March 4, 2010 at 18:42
Priya, thank u. but can u educate me on this candle stuff when u resume tmr? I usuaaly use bollinger band and intuition. That has howevr wiped my account twice after impressive gain then suddenly went haywire. Pls notify me when u c a prospect on gbp/usd and usd/chf. cheers
March 4, 2010 at 19:51
I have a question regarding stops.
If you are setting two or more entry positions, let’s say short at increasingly long positions, should you place a stop long of each position as a safety or just one stop long of the entire group of positions?
Thanks
March 4, 2010 at 21:57
im not sure if i understand ur question, but maybe this will anser it
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/learn-forex-1-money-management/
you want to put your stop loss, behind strong support or resistance if that support or resistance is broken your whole reason for entering is gone and no reason to stay in any more… thats my idea anyways, i learned it here (hope its correct, lol)
March 8, 2010 at 12:51
Thanks Markus.
March 4, 2010 at 21:47
Mark, i cant find “my breakout strategy”… didnt u have something like this here before, an article or something? Im pretty sure i read it before and i was gonna look at it again now, but couldnt find it.
March 4, 2010 at 22:45
Hey Markus I believe it was here:
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=93
March 4, 2010 at 22:52
no it was not the one …like i remeber it, but it covers what i wanted read up on. Thanx Matthew
March 4, 2010 at 23:15
I looked for more on Piphut but was unable to find it.. This was a topic back in the beginning of January. It was posted and talked about so maybe that is where you remember it..:)
March 4, 2010 at 23:22
It’s going down. Prediction is good