Morning and evening PipHutters! Sorry for the LONG post today. Before the normal recap/daily outlook/trading idea I wanted to re-introduce some trading tips with everyone. It’s worth the 30 seconds to read it, whether you agree or disagree, but you could always just scroll down to today’s signal :).
First off a reminder – forex is a tough gig and it is stacked against beginners in a lot of different ways. I’ve never sugarcoated that with anyone and never will. I get lots of emails each day: lots thanking me, some telling me horror stories about how they took some else’s signal without a stop-loss or an ill-advised trade on a whim and now their account is empty. Still other emails that ask me to provide my personal trades – even offering to pay me for them! And I’ve addressed that question before but I think it is worth discussing again because the point behind it is important. I can understand why this would be tempting in the short-term, basically having someone else trade for you, but it is really not doing you any favors in the long-run. You all know I love analogies so lets talk about sailing.
Trading Forex is a lot like competitive sailing – really!
There are different wind patterns (or trends). You have to adjust your technique whether you are going with the wind or against it. On top of wind you have to add currents into the mix. You have to know all the parts of the sailboat, know how to operate different tools and machines in case something goes wrong. Then there is the depth of the water, the height of the waves, etc etc. And in competitive sailing there are dozens of others boats in the water with you. Now take that and multiply it by a LOT. At any given time there are literally thousands of different things influencing the markets. Would you expect to be a world-class sailor in a couple of days of practicing in your plastic dryboat? Of course not! And if someone else says “today the wind is blowing south: you need to use this much sail, tack at X degrees and bring these tools” that’s great and that helps – but what if that person is no longer around to help? Or what if the wind changes direction mid-voyage and that helper is onshore, not able to give you directions? That’s why PipHut’s signals are designed to help you trade for yourself, not trade for you :). I hope that makes sense.
I don’t tell you this to scare you (well maybe a little), but I just always want to remind people every now again that there is a lot that you don’t know. And that I don’t know. You and I constantly have to be learning and improving ourselves and, most importantly, keeping our equity alive to trade another day! Well I could go on for pages about this but let me point you very quickly to some (I think) helpful articles I’ve written in the past. Hopefully these articles will give a few of you some helpful hints to get you over the hump:
Money Management the PipHut way
Win More Trades
How to Succeed in the Forex Market
Achieve Forex Success in 2010 – this one is almost more of a warning/inspirational note!
and of course:
FAQ for PipHut’s Signals
READ ME: How to Use PipHut’s free signals
and by the way, journalling is one of the best things I ever did for my trading. Every trade I took I would save a screenshot of my chart, type up my rationale for entering the trade and my stop-loss and targets. Kudos to the people who are still doing that in the forums.
Recap: Our conservative trade was never reached yesterday and I personally never took the aggressive sell. As I mentioned in the comments fields the bulls had pushed the pair up 70+ pips in a few hours with the largest lower wick only 7 pips! The only thing aggressive about that at that time were the bulls and I didn’t want to stand in front of a freight train. For those who did, as always, I hope you used good money management and of course stop losses!
Daily Outlook: Well another bullish day on top of an already bullish forecast? That’s right – I’m long hunting! As you can see from the chart there are two rising trend supports to look for and some fibonacci levels. My preference for today is the 61.8% fibonacci, currently just above 1.3690. 1.3800 is the key short term resistance and I would consider selling buying a break above this level.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long in the vicinity of 1.3690 (61.8% fib), preferably near rising trend support. Targets from 1.3690 are 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800. A secondary trade is to sell a break of the important resistance at 1.3800.
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March 17, 2010 at 05:44
As long as on on my soapbox too be careful of brokers as other sources of information. Brokers can have good resources but remember they get paid whether you win or lose – most just want you to trade and don’t really warn you of the risk.
Alright I’m getting down now. I hope that helps some of you!
Happy pipping!
March 17, 2010 at 07:22
Hi Mark
Thanks for the advise, time, effort, etc. It would be nice if one had the option to use signals/signalservice or trade by yourself, not all of us have the time, or skill to trade on our own. We do appreciate piphut.
March 17, 2010 at 06:02
Good Morning, Mark!
I am glad that you are feeling better.
March 17, 2010 at 13:37
I’m not out of the woods yet but I’ve been feeling slightly better every day.
March 17, 2010 at 06:08
Thanks Mr Mark for your wisdom. I am glad your feeling better as well. :)
March 17, 2010 at 06:19
Good post Mark!
March 17, 2010 at 06:30
Hi Mark – i’ve been trading demo mode when time allows. Although I agree with your stance on being able to trade ‘on your own two feet’, there is one exception. When you’ve a full time job and cannot watch the market. In this scenario a signal service would be great (with all the caveats, provisos, risk warnings etc!). This applies to me. A signal service would still allow me to profit from the market and recap the trades in the evening.
but anyways… i think the answer is pretty clear (at least for now :) )
March 17, 2010 at 06:35
When u say 61.8 fib at 13690, please specify the dib range. Iam not able to spot this fib level. So for reading clarity if u specifu the fib rane and the 61.9% level value, it will be better to understand.
Subramanian.
March 17, 2010 at 06:36
Read fib range and not dib range
March 17, 2010 at 06:38
Here is a great article for all to read, especially those who are new or with some experience in the market. It was written by Bill Boyd…
“The Pros and Cons of Trading a Forex Trading Demonstration Account”
Trading is a skill that takes time to learn. Think of it like boxing it’s also a skill that takes time to learn. If you get into a professional boxing ring without any training, you’ll get beat up physically! If you get into the Forex ring without any training, you’ll get beat up financially!
The similarities are that both the examples are skills, and both require psychological preparation. The difference is that one is physical and the other is financial.
We can get over a physical beating usually in a few days or weeks, BUT a financial beating can be devastating and easily affect us for the rest of our lives, not only does it hurt our hip pocket but it can cause problems with our relationships and family. So when we get into the Forex ring we have to be prepared.
The Professional Boxer
When a professional boxer gets in the ring he has already been practicing in a safe environment usually for years, this safe environment is where he can make mistakes without having medical treatment. He can also spar with other opponents that have more skills and experience then he does and he learns from them. He also has someone there to watch him and give advice and guidance.
Then when he is ready, he gets into the ring and boxes for real, he’s accepted the risk and KNOWS that he can get hurt, but he’s also studied his opponent and done his home work, so he KNOWS he has a good chance. He can still lose this round but if he wins most of them he will take the money home.
BUT! What about the psychological side? Does he fear getting into the ring? Sometimes! But he’s aware of it and he can control how it affects him in a way that is beneficial. Will he be thinking about the money he’ll make? Or will he be thinking about the fight as is happens and planning his next moves during the breaks? He’ll be analyzing the results from the previous rounds and making changes in his strategy for the next round.
The professional Trader
Can you see what’s coming next? If so than, you’ve learnt to analyze what you read and form a projection into the future. (A very valuable skill for the FOREX Trader)
A forex trader, like the professional boxer, will not get into the Forex trading ring without being prepared first. He might not spend years practicing in the Demonstration Account, but he will at least have spent a month or two or three, sparing with the Forex Market in a safe environment that he won’t get beat up in.
He’ll practice trading forex against all the other traders and learn from them, and he’ll also have someone watching him and giving advice, and guidance.
Then when he is ready, he’ll get into the Forex trading ring and trade forex for real, he’s accepted the risk and KNOWS that he can get hurt, but he’s also studied the Forex market and done his home work, so he KNOWS he has a good chance. He can still lose on this trade but if he wins most of the trades he will take the money home.
BUT! What about the psychological side? Does he fear getting into the forex trading ring? Sometimes! But he’s aware of this fear, but he can control how it affects him, in a way that is beneficial to his forex trading. Will he be thinking about the money he’ll make? Or will he be thinking about the things that are influencing the market as is happens and planning his next trades while he waits for the results? He’ll be analyzing the results from the previous trades and making changes in his strategy or continuing with the one that’s working, and planning for the next Forex Trade.
So it’s easy to see that trading with a Forex Trading Demonstration Account is something everyone should do before getting into a live Forex Trading account.
The practice account will give the trader MOST of the skills necessary, to be able to trade profitably, giving them the training ring to spar in.
BUT A BIG WARNING!!!
Like the Boxer, the Forex trader has learned to manage his emotions, this is often overlooked by new Forex Traders. BUT is probably what separates the successful investor from the ones that keep getting beat up! If you are considering getting into the Forex Trading Ring, then be sure to practice first, and find all the information you can about controlling your emotions.
Fear, greed, impatience, are the main culprits of financial bashings, so keep an eye out for them, and learn how to beat them before you get in the ring with them.
Understanding these emotions will enable you to use them to your advantage in understanding the market, the market is influence by these emotions and if you understand them you can have them on your side, thus giving you an advantage.
March 17, 2010 at 06:54
thank you . :) still need to learn a lot of things .. especially to control fear, greed and impatience.
March 17, 2010 at 08:41
gracias por el concejo y si me puede informar en que pagina me informo sobre como ver las noticias mas rapidamente.gracias.
March 17, 2010 at 06:41
Morning mate. So you thing 61.8% bounce. Will u go short until 61.8% or will you just wait to see what will happen.
March 17, 2010 at 06:58
Hi? testing?
March 17, 2010 at 06:58
My gosh, finally.
Something went wrong i was not able to post anything ever since i came back after Chinese New Year!
Great to be back again!
March 17, 2010 at 07:06
Reasonable analogy regarding sailing. My only concern is that I am a pretty good racing sailor, but a pretty poor trader !!! I use a lot of instinct coupled with technical information when racing, so I am still waiting for the instinct in trading !
March 17, 2010 at 07:07
Hi Mark,
Just for options. I had also planned to go short at 1.38+. My next resistance is at 1.3855. Do you have anything in-between for resistance?
March 17, 2010 at 13:37
1.3820 is minor resistance
March 17, 2010 at 07:14
“A secondary trade is to sell a break of the important resistance at 1.3800.”
Dont u mean buy if it breaks?
March 17, 2010 at 08:02
hmm, i read it again and sell is what you meant… but i have no idea why its a good idea to sell on a break of 1.38. seams to me that it would skyrocket if it breaks that resistance. A bit confused now.
March 17, 2010 at 08:16
I am confuse as well. Could it be a typo on Mark’s part? Or does Mark really mean sell at 1.38 considering it’s a strong support?
March 17, 2010 at 07:18
Hi Mark,
Thanks for the signals. I got +15 pips for going long at 1.3785. Would today stay bullish?
March 17, 2010 at 07:20
Hi Subramanian,
Bill Boyd is 100% correct re demo account v live account.As a beginner trader from demo to live you can cut your let’s say 100 pips(demo), down to 10 pips(live)
March 17, 2010 at 07:59
Hi you all,
we have a shooting star forming on 1H chart, be warned :D
March 17, 2010 at 08:00
Thank you very much for your advise Mark. I think your means good for mine way to forex :)
March 17, 2010 at 08:23
i just went short. hope it will go down
March 17, 2010 at 08:28
I hope so as well, i wanna buy low. So bring it down to about 1.3690 please. Thanx Adam, hehe
March 17, 2010 at 08:33
hehe. it’s so lazy moving
March 17, 2010 at 08:58
Great my technical analyse matched with yours Mark .
i’m in the trade now what i said yesterday .set it breakeven and let it RUN
and for the long i will look at 1.3710 but only with different conformations, patience and moneymanagement.
tkns for your learning curve
March 17, 2010 at 09:12
If you ve not lost your EQUITY b4 you will not know what Mark is talking about, I ve been a victim on some occasions, Pls be careful. It pays to be in this game, but remember it is survival of the fittest.Guard your pips with all jealousy for out of it are your daily bread
March 17, 2010 at 09:20
So what you are saying is that people first have to blow up there account and only than they know what mark is talking about???? mmmmm. i don’t agree
i say keep trading on Demo ,if you are profitable on 6 straigt mounths then you could be thinking about a live account. otherwise just don’t start live
March 17, 2010 at 09:26
u didnt get me right, am just advicing that all should be carefull, if u read what Mark wrote, he is talking much about money mgt. Its not all a matter of winning trades, but remaining in the market even when u loose. A good student learns from the mistakes of others
March 17, 2010 at 09:40
Ok i understand what your saying, but i still disagree.
I worked on different demo platforms for 2 years.
and let me tell you i blew up alot of demo accounts.
only last feb ’10 i started live after i tought i knew what i was doing and still its very risky overall.
if you dont’know basics like moneymanagment etc.
don’t start live..
And its difficult to learn from others mistakes if you trading alone.
i learned off my own mistakes.
March 17, 2010 at 09:48
Then permit me to say that you are not a good student, in as much as i learnt from my own mistake i dont believe or suscribe to the fact that people should learn fro their own mistakes
March 17, 2010 at 09:27
(V)wave missing i think i will short the correction
begin from the 1st wave 1.3531 to 5 ((VI) in a supercycle)? 1.3818 fibo 38,2% 1.3708 or arround the piv
March 17, 2010 at 09:36
Excellent post Mark! I’d like to humbly add a couple of things that I personally find helpful to today’s post.
I have found this acronym very helpful to establish the right mindset for trading. It’s taken from the book called The Way of the Warrior Trader which points that very similar skills are required to be a successful trader as were to be a Samurai Warrior.
A.C.T.I.O.N.
The letters stand for
Accept all losses before entering a battle. (My interpretation is; Have a well defined plan so you know where your stop loss is and accept the financial loss if the trade goes against you, once you have accepted this, there is no stress during the trade and it’s easier to let it play out to either hit SL or targets)
Centre yourself in body mind and spirit. (My interpretation is; Make sure that you are fully prepared to trade, mentally, physically and emotionally).
Trust your warrior skills. (My interpretation is; Trust in your skills in analysis and in your system. It’s very easy for the novice trader to doubt themselves or their system mid-trade if it starts to go against them. This can cause them to panic and exit early only to find the trade would have finished in their favour, how they initially anticipated).
Imagine success clearly in the mind’s eye. (A bit deep this one) My interpretation is; We get what we think about, so if we always imagine losing then that’s what we will get and if we imagine success that is also what we will get. I’m not saying that if you imagine winning trades you will influence the market but you will influence yourself and it’s you that is entirely responsible for your own success or failure).
Only exist in the present moment. (My interpretation is; Be completely present, don’t worry about your last trade because that has happened already and there is nothing you can do about it. If it was a financial loss then don’t let it make you feel negative and if it was a financial gain then don’t let it give you excessive confidence. Both of these emotions are disastrous to trading. Also don’t think about the outcome of future trades, you have already worked out the risk to reward and you are entering the trade knowing ALL outcomes which are SL hit or targets hit. You already know (and accepted) your maximum loss and potential gains. If you stick to this one you will control fear.
Never stop or look back once action has begun. (My interpretation is; self explanatory this one, once you have entered a trade then let it play out).
Finally, 3 words that I personally think are essential when trading and I have in view all the time when I’m in front of the screens:
Faith, Courage, Discipline.
Well that’s my bit done; I hope someone finds a little nugget that may help them somewhere in there.
March 17, 2010 at 10:30
kungfu of forex trading.
If my memory serves me right it means something like hard work.
March 17, 2010 at 11:48
Good morning Markus, you are right; I believe that hard work is an essential ingredient to a successful career in trading.
March 17, 2010 at 10:03
@Tony Onyenweaku
You can say anything u like about me its a free world.
In holland we say
“a donkey does not knock himself to the same stone twice”
get it?
cheers
March 17, 2010 at 10:21
I have found that experience is the best teacher.
March 17, 2010 at 12:12
Guys, I think you’re both right as learning from your own mistakes and also learning from others mistakes both have their place in your education. If you learn from others, you can easily avoid a lot of pitfalls and save yourself a lot of time by seeing where others have gone wrong. There is an old phrase that says he who teaches himself has a fool for a teacher.
However, I also believe that making your own mistakes is essential in the learning process because you only feel something when you do if yourself. Mistakes made by yourself are seldom forgotten especially when it comes to the pain of financial losses.
Of course there is no such thing as a mistakes, only opportunities to learn and improve ourselves.
March 17, 2010 at 12:38
pls i dont mean to insult u, i hope u are not offended.If u are, I appologise, am very sorry. OK
March 17, 2010 at 13:21
Tony,
Don’t worry i don’t feel offended at all.
no need to say sorry ,
i kinda like it when somebody is not scared to say what he or she stands for.
btw that short off that shootingstar 1,3818 paid off well.
happy pippin
March 17, 2010 at 10:44
Bear flag and (or) a rising wedge, I’m still not bullbent yet.
although I wish I went long at 3438!lol
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=332&mode=view
March 17, 2010 at 10:56
haha, bullbent!
March 17, 2010 at 13:37
How do you arrive at the blue square and blue oval from the trend lines ?
March 17, 2010 at 14:29
the top of the square is the top of the flag(which is not existing at the moment), the bottom of the square is the top of the wedge, the oval is in a general support area,you can measure the height of flags and wedges to determine targets as well.
March 17, 2010 at 13:42
Pivot point is holding for now. Maybe this is the lowest it will get.?
March 17, 2010 at 14:14
hello,anybody there?
are the bears taking over?
or what do you think?
March 17, 2010 at 14:18
Bears have managed to push the price down but it hasn’t been the cleanest drop with a hammer, bullish wick at 13:00. I’m still sticking with my primary analysis which sis to buy on dips.
March 17, 2010 at 16:00
Well, take a look at the yearly chart and it signals upward trending. A slow break of a consolidation.
However, fundamentalist are still weary about the Greek situation and would factor the risk into the price of the pair. Depending on US sentiment (Risk Sentiment), it may swing favorably towards USD if risk sentiment depreciates.
We should keep a lookout for the outlook of the US economy for a better outward view.
March 17, 2010 at 14:21
it looks like it. I am watching 30min for confirmation.
March 17, 2010 at 14:47
1.3735 good support
March 17, 2010 at 15:38
Back from my beer bottles!
Looks like i’d closed my position a little too early again! Long positions coming up.
March 17, 2010 at 15:41
Where did you go drink Brandon?
I’m coming to visit Singapore in June. I love that place…used to be my childhood playground.
March 17, 2010 at 15:48
Just some coffee shop near my place with one of my old pals.
You visiting soon?
March 17, 2010 at 16:13
Yeah…I’ll be there from June to July this year. Maybe we can hook up sometime while I’m there…fellow piphutter…or piphunter.
March 17, 2010 at 17:36
Sure thing man!
I will looking forward for a session of World Cup game with you at a pub or something! Fries, wedges and beer! It’ll be good if you watch the game!
LOL!
March 17, 2010 at 15:54
Do you guys think it will hit 1.3710? 1.3700?
March 17, 2010 at 15:59
Daily PP 1.3735 seems a very strong resistance.
March 17, 2010 at 16:04
Sorry, I mean SUPPORT.
March 17, 2010 at 16:05
Any longs in ?
March 17, 2010 at 16:16
I tried one quick long at 1.3730 and closed it out for 11 pips profit.
I’m waiting for 1.3730 again….with a SL at 1.3690 or below. And if does reach there, I’ll add one more long position to ride it back up to 1.3730 or greater.
I’m trying this new technique and it works good. Start small with one position, then add to double your position. If you losing and are in the middle of your 2 positions, you may actually break-even.
March 17, 2010 at 16:22
what spooked you to make you close it ?
March 17, 2010 at 16:24
Since I was in front of the terminal…my emotions always get in the way, and I have that “bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush” fear.
If I had been away, my TP at 1.3750 would have been hit.
This is something I’m still training to overcome, and accept for the moment.
March 17, 2010 at 16:05
I guess i’m out of the trade then. Past my entry point. Maybe tomorrow will do.
March 17, 2010 at 17:35
Mark,if u have the time, would you mind explaining your line of thought about selling a break of 1.8 instead of buying? ive been confused about it all day.
March 17, 2010 at 17:39
Oops, that was a typo! Though the aggressive trade was to sell the false breakout (see how it could never close above 1.3800, i.e. was never a ‘sustained’ break?).
March 17, 2010 at 18:56
ok, that happens. I stayed out, i didnt know what to make of it. Im waiting to long now.
March 17, 2010 at 17:40
Well, from the looks of it, 1.3800 looks like a strong resistance. A break of 1.3800 might be a false break resulting in a very good shooting star for a short position. However, it might be risky as it shows to be trading against the trend so TP should be realized at a pretty conservative level.
On the contrary, if a break of 1.3800 serves as a true break of resistance, it will signal a buying opportunity up till the next level.
So depending on how you look at the “Break of 1.3800″, different people might take it differently, some shorting it (waiting for shooting star) and some longing it (if signals permits). Think Marks stand is to go short unless he made a mistake typing. LOL!
March 17, 2010 at 17:41
So there was really a typo…
Cheers PipHutters! We’re human afterall!
March 17, 2010 at 17:42
I didn’t list that aggressive trade though because I think people might be misinterpreting the aggressive trades
March 17, 2010 at 17:47
Should’ve guessed so. Mark almost never trade against the trend unless there is a “God sent signal”.
Cheers!
March 17, 2010 at 18:35
Mark. Hope you’re well. My beef yesterday wasn’t about the money management ( I’ve got that down to a tee ) or questioning my strategy, bit was more about incorrectlu Reading the signal. The shhoting star to me, in isolation anyway, was signal enough to short. However had I looked at the bigger picture and movement for the day I surely woulnt have entered. My stop was placed methodically. My confidence of the trade waivered but removing emotion I decided to play it out. If i’m honest I suspected I would get stopped out. For me the problem yesterday was one which I only believe wI’ll disappear with experience. That said I’d prefer you to list all possibilities in your daily analysis rather than holing them back do to worrying about misinterpretation. As I said yesterday I learnt a lot from that trade. My emotion was completely removed and a see the loss as part of the trade. Peace out brother
March 17, 2010 at 19:35
We’re cool with dat!
March 17, 2010 at 20:11
It’s funny how we always learn more from our losses than from our wins.
March 17, 2010 at 21:18
I know you dont want to trade for us mark and personally I wouldn’t want/expect you to. However what would work well for me is if you saw a setup that a novice might go for but in actual fact there is something that negates that setup a gentle nudge from you would be most appreciated. There’s a heck of a lot of facets in this game and as much as you can teach youself insight from a pro is always appreciated
thanks for your patience
Paul
March 17, 2010 at 19:45
Going up, going down. It’s like in elevator whole day. Hehe. But it was a nice ride. Just when I thought that market is slowing down it started moving faster.
March 17, 2010 at 20:26
What a nice doji in 4 hour chart.
March 17, 2010 at 20:36
think its a good buy now?
March 17, 2010 at 20:52
Well, it can be a good buy sign, but I prefer the Mark signal, and waiting that it break 1.3735 strong support, I am looking to go for long under 1.3700
March 18, 2010 at 11:36
Your system is good.