Recap: Another week, another pip. Welcome back PipHutters! I wasn’t sure if I was going to make it after falling ill this weekend but I am feeling better now and ready for the week ahead. Choppy waters last week as the pair consolidated in a triangular wedge before finally making a break to the upside of daily trend resistance on Friday (I knew there was a reason I avoided Fridays).
Daily Outlook: The war of words between China and US about the yuan’s pegging failed to start the market off with a bang and fundamentally, as the pair has been for weeks now, traders are seeking direction. In fact in light of the mixed (short-term) fundamentals I view the breakout on Friday as less of a breakout and more that the pair has found a decent fair market value – i.e a range.
Technically though it was a very bullish break especially in combination with the triple dojis on the weekly charts and, if I enter the market, it will be in the form of a long. A setup I will watch closely is a dip to the (former) resistance between 1.3660 and 1.3690. The more conservative trade is the dip to support trend line (bottom blue line on the bottom of the chart).
Trading Idea: Primary strategy is to watch a dip to rising support, currently around 1.3600. If it reaches this level it will be a 130+ pip drop and near the pair’s maximum range recently. From 1.3600 long targets are 1.3625, 1.3655 and 1.3690. The more aggressive setup, if it presents itself is to buy on a dip to 1.3660-1.3690 support range (ideally it would also touch former daily resistance trend currently at 1.3680). Long targets from 1.3660 are 1.3690, 1.3730, and 1.3760.
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March 15, 2010 at 05:15
Thanks Mark,
Hope you had a good weekend. Back to trading now :) Happy pipping!
March 15, 2010 at 05:18
Aside from feeling a bit under the weather it was great :)
March 15, 2010 at 05:32
Let’s make some pips! That will lead you to a speedy recovery :)
March 15, 2010 at 17:08
Glad to hear you’re feeling better Mark.
March 15, 2010 at 05:15
thanks mark for the signals! glad i didn’t close my positions from last week… :)
March 15, 2010 at 05:40
Thank God you are strong again Mark!
March 15, 2010 at 05:45
Good morning all
please someone give me an advice
i have only free margin 375 $ so have i close my positions or wait\
thanks
March 15, 2010 at 05:47
Hi Mark. Thanks for the signal. I was wondering, since I’m a newbie, at what point should I buy? I mean, from 1.3625 to 1.3690, which is best for a beginner. Sorry if the question sounds stupid.
March 15, 2010 at 07:27
Hi Elisa, read my “FAQ” and “READ ME” under the Quick Links section of the post and on the left hand nav – that should answer a lot of your questions.
March 15, 2010 at 05:48
all of my positions sell eur/usd
March 15, 2010 at 06:02
yea me too .. my postion is sell too ..
Hi Mark , I thinks price fall from major resistance 1.3797 from 4H timeframe. my assumption was correct? sorry i’m beginner too. :)
Thanks
March 15, 2010 at 07:26
Yes, there is some major resistance in this area. Daily levels and fibonacci levels.
March 15, 2010 at 06:10
MARK AM SURE THAT ONCE YOU START HARVESTING PIPS ALL ABNORMALITIES WILL BECOME NORMAL. THANK GOD YOU ARE BACK
March 15, 2010 at 06:15
Hi Mark,
I am unable to open the chart that you posted, can you take a look when you get the chance:
http://piphut.com/2010/03/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/eu31510buying.gif
Thx.
Cheers
Albert
March 15, 2010 at 06:18
Hi Mark,
Chart is missing.
May I know whether you consider the trend is reversed and is bullish now? or do you consider this is a short term change and overall is still bearish?
Thank you,
March 15, 2010 at 07:25
Should be working now, thanks. I think it is short-term bullish, letting off some steam.
March 15, 2010 at 07:41
Thanks Mark. Happy trading.
March 15, 2010 at 06:54
Will it really be bearish? It’s still on the up trend.
March 15, 2010 at 07:33
Oh, I just gained a few pips and got me the total of 10 cents. Well, I’m a newbie, so only trade with 0.01 lot and 1:100 leverage.
March 15, 2010 at 08:18
Morning all, Elisa. Many of us use the same type of accounts. If we take it easy we can upgrade later ;) …if we want
March 15, 2010 at 12:22
Hi Elisa,
Welcome and we are glad you are here. Gain the pips, plan your strategy and the money will take care of itself. I think its great you are starting in the shallow end of the pool, instead of jumping off the deep end. Take your time, there are thousands of trades to be made, you just have to learn how to setup the good ones.
March 15, 2010 at 10:42
hello, many economic news USD today
March 15, 2010 at 11:43
I am trading micro also started earlier shorting at 3775, I am just going to trade micro until I get the hang of this. That way it does not stress me out about the money and I am only concerned about how I get pips, if I lose just replace ten dollars but the practice is invaluable
March 15, 2010 at 12:10
I think you have a great money management strategy Sally. Its all about how many pips you gain not how much money you gain. Once you have a winning trading strategy down pat, and you have the savings to add to your account you can increase your lot size and have larger financial gains on trades.
March 15, 2010 at 12:15
With one touch of 1.3700 and solid resistance with the 25 pip bump lets see what happens on the second go round.
March 15, 2010 at 12:20
I meant solid support at 1.3700, but you pros already new that :)
March 15, 2010 at 12:41
the price is 1.3710. will it break or bounce?
March 15, 2010 at 12:55
is any one trading the NZD/USD?
March 15, 2010 at 13:10
im looking to buy the kiwi if it slowly drops down to .6900, thats my conservative play on it. My aggressive play would be to short it now down to .6900 then buy back up.
March 15, 2010 at 13:15
Thanks.
i shorted the Kiwi at .7045. i am hoping it goes down hard. it seems to be breaking through a major resistance in the .7000 range.
March 15, 2010 at 13:12
I am glad to read you this morning
and I am happy your illness was not fatal.
Roger
March 15, 2010 at 14:13
Roger that. I second the opinion that the illness wasn’t fatal. Imagine telling that to your friends and coworkers. You getting over the cold or the flu? Hey at least it wasn’t fatal! ;)
March 15, 2010 at 14:47
Kurt,
I am happy you second my opinion, even if you do not necessarily agree that I do not have a great imagination.
Roger
March 15, 2010 at 13:23
Seems strong support at 1.3700, waiting for the drop of 10 pips since morning :)
March 15, 2010 at 14:14
Agreed. I am looking for a candle close below the 3700 mark.
March 15, 2010 at 14:21
It is on the daily S1 1.3693 now, Can we jump in it or better to wait for the candle confirmation?
March 15, 2010 at 14:31
A very prominent hammer in 30 mins chart.
March 15, 2010 at 14:34
Thats a tough call.
March 15, 2010 at 14:46
Hmmmmm, Kurt you are right, I better hold my horse.
March 15, 2010 at 15:01
Ado – You In?
With this sustained break the next support should be 1.3655, 1.3625
March 15, 2010 at 15:00
I love 1 hour candle, mostly it saves me from losses :)
March 15, 2010 at 15:03
No Kurt, not now, I am looking 1.3665 level, and definetely go for long after candle confirmation.
March 15, 2010 at 15:13
Ado – where did you get 1.3665 level from?
March 15, 2010 at 15:16
1.3660 and tanking.
What do you guys think? Ready for a small Long ?
March 15, 2010 at 15:18
I’m busy at work. Could you guys post a candle confirmation for a long ? pretty please ? thanks a bunch.
March 15, 2010 at 15:16
Well, I calculated it 50 % Fib level in 1 Hour chart, but it has already broken, so I will wait now.
March 15, 2010 at 15:18
GFC MARKETS ANYONE ? does any one use goforex or gfc markets i want to know if its a good platform ??
thanks,
trader 905
March 15, 2010 at 16:38
have started using goforex recently, no problems really, i like that they are based in australia, regulated + allow micro lots. did have a couple of odd ‘stop hunting’ moments but they were during volatile periods (news) so i could be dreaming.
March 15, 2010 at 15:19
My next level is 1.3635, for long, and ofcourse after candle confirmation.
March 15, 2010 at 15:21
Do you mean the 30 or the 1 hour candlestick?
March 15, 2010 at 15:32
Sure John R, if I am here. The 30M chart may show something by at the end of the hour, but it will be an hour and a half before the 1HR chart would show a sign for a buy.
March 15, 2010 at 15:23
1 Hour , its always reliable for me :)
March 15, 2010 at 15:34
Kurt, are you in ?
March 15, 2010 at 15:46
I closed out a short in the 1.3650′s. 30+ pips. I am not in a buy yet, my gut says it will go lower, but then again I may watch it retrace all the way back up…
March 15, 2010 at 15:38
Seems to be stuck at 1.3660 for a moment.
I’d rather wait for S2 at around 1.3615 so that I’m risking less.
March 15, 2010 at 15:39
But then again, if we see long wick at the end of the hour, and confirmation for a long….let’s ride 1.3660 !!
March 15, 2010 at 15:43
There is already a very long hammer in 15 mins chart.
March 15, 2010 at 16:29
Hello to Piphut.com and all Pippers.
Mark, I am glad to hear that you are feeling better today. We do appreciate everything you do for us here at Piphut.com but don’t forget to get plenty of rest and take care of yourself.
March 15, 2010 at 16:32
Hey Lisa! Hope you enjoyed your weekend.
Yes Mark, make sure to follow Lisa’s instructions!
March 15, 2010 at 16:38
Hello Kurt,
My weekend was blessed. We had many family members from out of town to visit since my brother is still in the hospital ICU with a terminal illness. The doctors have stated that there is nothing more that they can do for him but he is still holding on right now.
Mark appears to be such a hard worker and he is very dedicated to the Piphut.com community. Therefore, I just wanted him to know that we appreaciate all of the time he gives us but we would rather have him well than over work himself. He has already given me much more than I had expected.
March 15, 2010 at 16:49
I was hoping your spirits were rising, I at least hope your brother is comfortable.
Mark is great, and you have to pinch yourself everyday you click piphut.com. This community is like the original online forums from back in the day. Maybe we all time travel while at piphut!
March 15, 2010 at 16:55
Thanks, Kurt. We are just continuing to pray.
March 15, 2010 at 16:40
Totally agreed with Lisa and Kurt….Health is wealth.
March 15, 2010 at 16:41
Mark, I as well wish to thank you for your help, information, and encouragement.
Get well and stay well.
March 15, 2010 at 16:46
My fellow colleague’s
looks like a lot off people are sick,get well everybody!
Check it the 1hr chart is forming a massif bullish hammer ..
just 15mins to go
cheers
March 15, 2010 at 17:02
ok it became a litte morningstar
March 15, 2010 at 17:11
please i want you to show me a candle stick that will form and i will know that eur/usd is bearish after long bullish … like what happened three days ago in this pair bc no formation from candle stick was denoted
March 15, 2010 at 17:49
Emmanuel
Its not only the candlestick that provide a reversal signal.
you have to take notice that you need trendlines fibonacci and support and resistance levels etc.
And the global economic calender on the side.
sometimes the trend will chance without any visual reason.
there is alot of info on the net about candlesticks look read and learn.
is my advice, thats what i did for 2 years..
and finally im making money
March 15, 2010 at 17:47
Anyone eles take agressive long off 3650 area?
March 15, 2010 at 17:53
yep i took it more thn agressive from 1,3656 after the last closed 1hr candle. im setting it breakeven right now. so im safe
March 15, 2010 at 18:00
That candle looked good to me too. I am looking at 3688-3698 range for target, what about you? I think the market is sideways now and pips to be made both ways, close stops on the longs though.
March 15, 2010 at 18:04
Yeah thats what im thinking two that candle touched the 61.8 level that i put in my chart ,but im not sure about this trade thats why i set it breakeven that fast.
and im trailing it up
March 15, 2010 at 18:29
Ok I am out +1 Pip plus spread, better than taken a loss. I supect it will range between the falling/rising lines per Marks chart until Europe makets open many hours from now. Bet there is some pips to be made between them, thinking of shorting with a good bear candle.
March 15, 2010 at 18:44
Tuctuc, are you still holding the your long position?
March 15, 2010 at 19:17
Yeah im still holding on to it, and im not gonne close it i’m waiting for it breakeven itself or let my trailing step kick in.
its a free trade right now.
March 15, 2010 at 19:18
That doji at 1800gmt is bullish acording to candlestick alerts, isnt that weird ??
March 15, 2010 at 19:22
I see it as bullish as well, price moving up and the tail pointing down is longer than the tail pointing up..
March 15, 2010 at 19:28
hmm, thats interesting. I never thought of it like that. I usually just think that if price is moving up and on the next candle leaves a doji thats a signal that it might turn. And i choose to get on or not depending on how high/low up they are and closeness to resistance support.
Ill kepp an eye on it, maybe ill learn something then. Thanx
March 15, 2010 at 19:36
I’m with you, I can see where the system picked up as bullish though.. Those things confuse me..
March 15, 2010 at 19:24
Hello I am looking forward to short EURUSD, if the market did breake the 200 EMA and the 38.2 fib, On one Hr chart, anyone take note of this?
March 15, 2010 at 19:33
Hi Aina,
so you want to short it around 1,3700
March 15, 2010 at 19:26
Hi all; what will it take to break thru 1.5025 on cable!
UK unemployment data weds? Moving averages, RSI and stochastics all give me bearish indicators. anybody agree?
March 15, 2010 at 19:33
gbpusd?
March 15, 2010 at 19:35
YEAH, WHY NOT MARKUS?
March 15, 2010 at 19:46
oh! Cable… right i see it now. maybe i need glasses, lol
March 15, 2010 at 19:45
wasnt sure witch pair u were talking about.
Im short since this morning and also waiting for it to break through. I think it will break but wouldnt short now though (risky). And i think the indicators show u wats been going on all day.
You might be able to catch the break, if it happens.
March 15, 2010 at 20:01
bullish hanging man in 1h
March 15, 2010 at 20:07
hangingman is bearish
March 15, 2010 at 20:12
your right!!! I meant bearish. sorry
March 15, 2010 at 20:27
I thinks 58 pips is enough for today
Thank very much Mark
March 15, 2010 at 22:42
Nice pick up Dee!
March 15, 2010 at 22:37
sorry for being late today and did not follow you mark but thanks any way for signal
March 15, 2010 at 22:45
Nice day today but only with 40pips on the EURUSD down move. I hope it will go up tomorrow :)
Good night