Welcome to another week PipHutters! Last week ended with a fizzle as one of my specific trade setups (long wick just touching 1.3630 resistance) occurred but too close to the end of the trading day to produce much of a result. I closed my short out at break even with the weekend approaching and it is a good thing – the pair has risen 70+ pips since opening a few hours ago.
Spurring the risk-taking was a speech by the French President offering support for France and saying, resolutely but still lacking any detail, that Europe was ready to support Greece with billions in aid. This sort of “blank check” support could drive risk taking (and the Euro) in the short term but any sign of dissension out of Germany should send the pair back to the depths.
Daily Outlook: short term outlook is bullish, longer-term outlook is bearish. A glance at the daily chart will show that the pair has been in a free fall since early December – a drop of almost 2000 pips since the Dec 3 high of 1.5400. We at PipHut have been selling all the way down and booking great pips as a result, but with the short-term picture a little murkier I will be going with the more conservative trades while still looking to fade rallies. The most obvious point of resistance is the falling trend resistance on the daily charts (connect Dec 3, 2009 high and Jan 14 high) that has not been broken in 2010.
Trading Idea: I will be looking in the resistance zone just below that falling trend line, between 1.3730-1.3750. Short targets from 1.3750 are 1.3715, 1.3680, 1.3650 and 1.3625. A much more aggressive move would be to look for a long in the 1.3585-1.3565 support zone to capitalize on short term bull trend, with longs targeting up to a re-challenge 1.3700.
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March 8, 2010 at 06:46
Good Monday Mark. Did you attach a chart to the signal for today? if so its not working, thanks
March 8, 2010 at 06:47
Thanks for catching that!
March 8, 2010 at 07:31
Finding resistance under 1.3700
March 8, 2010 at 07:31
Hi Mark,
Where approximately would you place your S/L for a short trade at ard 1.3750?
Heard a few banks mentioning possible push to 1.38? Would be great to know your thoughts if possible. Thanks
March 8, 2010 at 07:37
Depends on where I actually entered and how much profit I was targeting, but generally I use ~50 pip stops and try to “hide” my stop-loss behind good resistance/support.
The best place for a stoploss is a place where, if it was hit, it would change the technical picture. If the entry is high enough I’d like to hide it behind 1.3800, otherwise 1.3790 or even 1.3750 (if the entry is low). Many times too if you are entering on a candlestick signal you can place the SL beyond the high/low of the candlestick as a break beyond that level could negate your entry signal.
March 8, 2010 at 07:38
Thanks Mark, Much appreciated
March 8, 2010 at 08:07
Thanks mark, im in @ 1.3694 tp 1.3650
March 8, 2010 at 10:18
good call dude
March 8, 2010 at 10:29
Very nice trade Babyfaceodus. Well done.
March 8, 2010 at 12:33
anybody here ?doji signal!
first gain for this week….
March 8, 2010 at 12:51
It’s very quiet here today tuctuc, I wonder where everyone is.
March 8, 2010 at 12:58
Hi Neil maybe they took a big hit or someting.. last week.
Did you take that signal of the doij on the 1 hr .
i got a quick 20 pips.
cheers
March 8, 2010 at 13:06
You may be right tuctuc, last week was a bit choppy. I didn’t take the trade off the Doji, well done for the 20 pips.
March 8, 2010 at 14:49
It is very quiet in here, but the markets are pretty non-eventful this morning. There is a lot more chatter when the markets are tripping entries..
March 8, 2010 at 15:27
Either that, or everyone has absconded to the rival chatroom announced last week !!!
March 8, 2010 at 15:58
Nope, just checked and there is not a single person there.
March 8, 2010 at 12:57
I have a question regarding multiple entry locations such as today with multiple potential short locations.
Here is today’s: Short targets from 1.3750 are 1.3715, 1.3680, 1.3650 and 1.3625.
Is the correct approach to set these short locations while the actual price is short of them with the prospects that we are thinking that the EUR will climb to reach them and retrace, “OR” is the correct approach to wait until the EUR in this case is at 1.3750 or above and then set our short positions as it retraces back down?
I hope this question makes sense.
Thanks from a new “kindergarten” trader.
March 8, 2010 at 13:03
http://piphut.com/about/read-me-how-to-use-piphuts-free-forex-signals/
March 8, 2010 at 14:51
I don’t trade against the trend AJ. In today’s case the trend is a bit murky but the “correct” way is to wait for it to reach 1.3750 area and short. Read the article Tuctuc posted.
Welcome to PipHut :)
March 8, 2010 at 17:33
Thanks Mark, that was where I was confused.
I truly appreciate your site and the info you offer to help us learn the art and business of trading the FOREX.
March 8, 2010 at 13:33
Hello there, can somebody pls tell me the meaning of the candle stick empty and fill?
March 8, 2010 at 13:44
Hi Olukayode, the empty candlesticks are Bullish (Price closed above open) and the filled candlesticks are Bearish (Price closed below open).
March 8, 2010 at 14:52
Neil is generally right on, it just depends on your preferences in your charting package. Another common color scheme is green for bullish and red for bearish.
March 8, 2010 at 14:46
Hi Everyone,
My analysis was spot on with Mark’s too…. short at 1.3750.
Let’s hope it gets there during US hours. And also let’s hope good US news doesn’t turn out to be risk appetite either.
March 8, 2010 at 14:46
Hi Mark and all..!!
i hav 1 Q,
If in couple of hours, the price touch 1.3750, is mark trading idea still valid? Since it already @1.3703 before and going south for about 70 pips.
Well, IF it happen 2 times in 1 day.
March 8, 2010 at 14:53
Rafi, the price has not touched 1.3750 today so yes, it would still be valid.
March 8, 2010 at 15:22
Thanks Mark!
March 8, 2010 at 14:58
We have a shooting star forming, be alert :D
March 8, 2010 at 15:07
body closed too big.
March 8, 2010 at 15:29
yes it did :D
March 8, 2010 at 15:58
good morning every
it seems every time I think i will have more time it is less time i have for posting..
Mark you do a wonderful thing here
March 8, 2010 at 15:59
Thanks Tom
March 8, 2010 at 17:45
Hey Tom. Good to hear from you. I second your opinion on piphut!
March 8, 2010 at 16:09
Good morning everyone, hope you all had a great weekend! I’ve taken two small trades today off the 0700 and 1400 candels and picked up 25 pips on each. Not a bad way to start the week but I think I’m going to wait until a more clear signal before taking another trade.
March 8, 2010 at 17:02
Hi Mark & All..
Im a nebie
Today i added STOCHASTIC indicator in my MT4 platform. Can any1 of u plz suggest me which input values i should choose for it? For EUR/USD pair…
Currently im using (5,3,3)
Im new to forex so thats why i want to know what other ppl r using for STOCHASTIC.
March 8, 2010 at 17:15
I don’t use stochastics any more but in the past I’ve used 14,5,5 or 14,3,3. It produces less signals but more reliable ones.
Play with the numbers (other common are 9,3,3 and 9,5,5) to see what is offering the best # of signals and the most reliable signals)
March 8, 2010 at 18:13
Hi Mark and fellow traders
Mark pardon me for making this appeal.
Our Winterhoek mountains in Porterville South Africa are burning like hell. Our friends are fruit farmers and they are suffering heavy damages. Please say a prayer!!!
March 8, 2010 at 19:37
Hope they are well!!
March 8, 2010 at 19:01
Hi i have just logged on as i have had to cook in my kitchen at my cafe all day : ( seems like i missed out in the action this afternoon, never mind!! hope all are ok
Graham
March 8, 2010 at 19:07
You haven’t missed anything. We have no luck getting to our ‘strong’ entry points yet for today.
You probably could have scalped a few my now if you had time to monitor consistently. But, no big fish bites yet.
March 8, 2010 at 19:10
I see all the bears in the short term (=M30 according to my candlestick indicators.
Talk about mixed tug-of-war.
March 8, 2010 at 19:48
Wow, not much for postings today. I wonder where everyone is?
March 8, 2010 at 19:54
Pretty slow day in general. Price is just bouncing around.
March 8, 2010 at 19:55
Must be huntin’ season. Bears are hiding, and camp-briskets are high demand.
lol
Scalp if you want to. But beware, only bulls and bears make money; pigs get slaughtered.
March 8, 2010 at 20:00
I’m not, I wrangled 50 pips today and I’m calling it good.
I was reading about iceland this weekend. I’m surprised that isn’t playing a bigger role in today.
March 8, 2010 at 20:01
Cool…good 50pips for you. Wish I had the time. I’ve got a day job.
March 8, 2010 at 20:07
Me, too, I’m just lucky enough to be sitting in front of a computer most of the day so I keep charts up all day. I also set alarms before I leave for work so I stand a better of chance of not missing a good trade. There are still pleny of times though when I have a client at my desk and my alarm goes off and I miss the trade because I can’t get in for another hour.
March 8, 2010 at 20:46
Hey Mark, looks like I didn’t miss much today.. Hey I wanted to say I am sorry for posting like a dork on Friday.. I was just amazed you hit the reverse right on the pip.. Anyway I hope you all had a good day.. :)
March 8, 2010 at 21:02
yeah man…what’s up with that?
hehe
March 8, 2010 at 21:03
Just kidding…good to chat with ya again.
I guess everyone is having a great day…outside of FX.
March 8, 2010 at 21:02
yeah….new hour candle. Bullish on most of them. KLong anyone? hellooo? anybody out there? (cricket)
March 8, 2010 at 21:15
Hi all, im just watching today. Cant find a decent deal on any pair.
Well, just thought id say something just for the sake of saying something.
Sorry crickets! pls, carry on.
March 8, 2010 at 21:29
Wish I could trade a $10,000 lot, and scalp just one pip for $100, and call it a day.
March 8, 2010 at 21:49
OK Mark,
we’ll save your bandwidth from this useless chatter.
See you tomorrow.
March 8, 2010 at 21:50
hehe, i would be extremly nervous about that trade, id probably have a heart attack, haha