Recap: Finally, Friday is here! I took 40 pips off the sustained break of 1.3700 rising trend support yesterday. The ‘sustained’ break was exactly the opposite of the ‘false’ break we had on Wednesday: with false break the pair did not close above resistance on 30 and 60m timeframes. Yesterday, however, it did close below support on 30 and 60m timeframes, signaling the entry. I then took a long at the second rising trend support around 1.3650 which rallied briefly but then closed out at break even. I had drawn that possiblity in with the arrows on yesterday’s chart but didn’t type it out in the trading ideas, sorry to any who missed it :/.
Daily Outlook: Since its Friday (probably the worst day of the week to trade, at least for me) I will not be trading, but I still wanted to offer my analysis and a trading idea or two for any brave souls out there. First lets take a look at the daily chart (top right, click to make it bigger). You can see we’ve had a very strong downtrend since early December – it’s dropped over 1600 pips! Currently though we are in a bullish correction pattern (channel in between the blue lines, red support trend is possible support). This is why I check the daily analysis as part of my trade plan every day: 1) to see if there were any obvious candlestick patterns that might give an indication to the next day’s direction and 2) to look at the overall pattern. All those little red lines in there are horizontal support/resistance lines on the 1-hour charts – they don’t seem as sturdy on the daily charts do they?
More to the point for today is that we are just hovering around that bottom rising trend support line right now. Which gives us to clear trades: a long on confirmation signal if price fails to break 1.3590 again or a short if we have a sustained break below 1.3585 (I look for a close on the 1h or 4h charts).
Trading Idea: Long on another failure of 1.3590 with targets at 1.3620, 1.3650, 1.3690. Short on a sustained break of 1.3580 with targets at 1.3555, 1.3530 and 1.3505. Reminder – I’m not trading as its Friday and I’m looking forward to a three-day weekend ;). Happy pipping!
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March 19, 2010 at 04:42
GOOD MORNING
thanks mark 4 early signals but what is the reason behind fall yasterday.? i have an opened buy positions till now.
March 19, 2010 at 04:46
Fundamental speculation is that further Greece worries drove the euro down.
Technically its just normal zig zag in a correction channel.
Nothing really surprising either way.. It was volatile relative to the past few days but over the past couple weeks and longer there was nothing really special about the move.
March 19, 2010 at 04:48
What I’m curious about is if this is finally the push that drives us out of this bullish channel and back to the downside.
It wasn’t a shooting star but the bearish wick on wednesday that nearly touched strong daily resistance might give us the fuel to finally move back down.
March 19, 2010 at 06:02
Hi Mark, i remember you mentioning we had the scenario last year december, it is just the same scenario now only that there was a header and shoulder reversal pattern on the 1hour chat in december,but now I think we might be having a double top at 1.3800
March 19, 2010 at 11:22
Hi Everyone,
I have been following for quite some time. I post the Elliot Wave analysis in the forum section on EUR/USD. Mark, I am really starting to wonder if this may finally be the start of wave 5. I entered short on the daily with the long wick candle, currently up 140-150 pips. If this is in fact wave 5 we should see a slow fall down to around the 1.2300 to 1.2500 area. Wave 5 should be approximately the same drop(in pips) as wave 1; however, not as steep a drop. Any comments would be greatly appreciated!
March 19, 2010 at 11:25
I would like to correct the target to 1.2850 to 1.2900 area.
March 19, 2010 at 06:42
I’m not trading also for today.. yesterdays drop finally made my 2 positions hit TP.. and out of the market for the week..
Have a great weekend Mark and All !
March 19, 2010 at 07:35
I am not trading as well. I had 200 pips lose in two positions. And 100 pips profit in another. Not good.
I have another reason not to trade. I still don’t think it might be a good idea to go long on this pair until next week. After yesterdays big fall, I think this pair might go further down. The trend is little confusing. So better not to trade than losing more money. The same with GBP/USD pair.
I will look for a long on USD/CAD @ 1.00 zone.
March 19, 2010 at 08:33
hi priya, i was short in usd-cad and got some pips,i saw a suport line broken at 1.023 do you think find that line again? and continue bearish for a long time. and 1.023 is a 23% fibo from 09 feb how much do yo think gonna be bullish?
i hope you understand me, my english is not so good :)
March 19, 2010 at 08:36
Hi Priya, didnt see you around for a while.
Did you have a look at the trend on daily chart? defenitely looks like a good long to me. Im long since last night so im in the clear a bit more risky to enter now perhaps.
March 19, 2010 at 09:02
Hi Markus,
I didn’t trade properly this week. And I was confused about the trend. Thats the reason I didn’t make any comments lately.
Markus I didn’t understand which pair you are talking about. If it is USD/CAD, yes it is a good long. I missed the entry earlier. I will wait to go long again.
If it is EUR/USD as I wrote about, I am pretty sure it is bearish at the moment. But I am not going to trade on this pair at the moment.
@ Zid, I hope you got the answer. TP is up to you.
March 19, 2010 at 09:25
yeah i was talking about eurusd, its very bearish im so close to beeing stoped out, but i taken some profit already so worst thing that can happen is BE. Its moving in or close to the bottom of the channel on daily chart, Support seams strong. But defenitely not sure it will hold.
March 19, 2010 at 09:03
It’s currently 10179 so you’re waiting for a 179 pip drop before your long ?
March 19, 2010 at 09:06
Not really. When I placed the comment, it was 50+pips lower than the current price. I think I missed the entry. I will look to go long 1.01. But it’s risky.
March 19, 2010 at 08:09
its very useful to us mark how u recapped and explained yr entries,,thx a lot
March 19, 2010 at 14:08
no problem George
March 19, 2010 at 08:47
Hello Guys,
I follow your Signals since some weeks and they are very helpful !!
You confirm your breaks and false breaks with 30 and 60 TF only?
Thank you for all your help!
Have a nice day.
March 19, 2010 at 14:09
most of the time, yes. Depends on how big of a trade it is. If I’m looking for a longer term trade off the daily charts then obviously I’d look at the daily charts for confirmation.
March 19, 2010 at 10:00
sl/BE… guess its down again then. Think ill sit this friday out and just watch.
March 19, 2010 at 10:27
wonder if this will send it up again
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/barroso-eu-ready-to-provide-greek-aid-if-asked-2010-03-19
March 19, 2010 at 11:50
Hi Markus, do you know when next week they will make a desicion about the greek?
eventhen its shady about the outcome some say a bailout by the eu is really bad for the euro others say a bailout could give a long rally its very mixed.
i put my trading on a slow ride.
if i trade its with a maxima of 20-25pips
March 19, 2010 at 12:08
well, that didnt have much effect what i can see.
I have no idea about that. But there are more pigs after that i guess.
March 19, 2010 at 11:56
Hi mark,
Have a good weekend.and you too guys
Thanks
Jermaine
March 19, 2010 at 14:09
You too Jermaine, thanks.
March 19, 2010 at 12:22
Just made 99.5 pips (short from 1.650) and recovered from 3 previous bad trades. Good risk/reward is what saved me. Now if I can only stop making those bad trades!! ;)
Thanks so much for this site Mark!!
March 19, 2010 at 14:09
glad to have you here Ed :)
March 19, 2010 at 12:49
Hi Mark
I haven’t traded for some time. The builders packed their stuff and finally we have some silence. I would like to update my two trades since yesterday but can’t login. I have requested a refresher on the password but that does not seem to work. Kindly assist please:)
March 19, 2010 at 12:50
Good to see you Hendrik!
March 19, 2010 at 12:58
Thanks Kurt I’m tired as a dog and I’ve missed the trading. Are you short?
March 19, 2010 at 13:52
I am. But I felt I should have closed out at 1.3535 a while ago. Just waiting to see if it takes another dive.
March 19, 2010 at 14:16
it has just dropped to 1.3518.
March 19, 2010 at 14:10
@hendrik glad you’re back! I just sent you an email about your password
March 19, 2010 at 14:49
Thanks Mark
March 19, 2010 at 13:39
I am long on USD/CAD @ 1.00.
March 19, 2010 at 13:47
A very good trade against the trend. Keep it up!
March 19, 2010 at 13:49
Thanks Hendrick.I like to take this risk. Look at the price drop.
March 19, 2010 at 16:49
Hendrik closed with 35 pips in profit.
March 20, 2010 at 07:58
I was long on CADJPY @1pm and then short after bounce. 200 easiest pips ever. News probably had a big impact on CAD
March 19, 2010 at 14:02
anyone short the sustained break of 1.3580?
March 19, 2010 at 14:07
I jumped in at 1.3590 to 1.3531. So before the sustained break, but after the candle closed below 1.3600 and the second touch of the 1.3600 on the following candle.
March 19, 2010 at 14:07
I had a portion of short from yesterday running . Closed at 1.3535 . Planning to re enter at 1.36 depending on time.
March 19, 2010 at 14:10
We may see 1.3490!
March 19, 2010 at 14:11
second target was hit for +50 pips.
March 19, 2010 at 14:29
Excelelnt analasys as usual Mark. 3rd target coming up any minute, thank you.
March 19, 2010 at 15:17
Target 3 hit, thank you again Mark.
March 19, 2010 at 14:19
yes sir!
March 19, 2010 at 14:54
Yes Mark, I entered at 3591 … now at 77 pips with a b/e stop. I’m going to keep it open .. like to see what happens next weeks.
March 19, 2010 at 15:18
80 pips in my pocket!!! Thanks Mark!
March 19, 2010 at 14:03
Anyone short on EUR/USD today? I entered on the first attack on 1.3600, quite risky
March 19, 2010 at 14:23
i shorted at 1.3616.it is now 1.3515
March 19, 2010 at 14:16
my TP is 1.3505, looks like we are headed there. Another nice day, good luck everyone, have a nice weekend!
March 19, 2010 at 15:00
happy weekends all, let go and have good week ends I still have a short position I have set my tp and st to take cares of that.
March 19, 2010 at 15:11
That double top on the H4 is now very profitable. Pity I could not catch it it time
March 19, 2010 at 15:50
Almost 300 pips! Wish I had gotten all 300…
March 19, 2010 at 17:51
As Neil pointed out 3rd target was hit for +75 pips. Have a great weekend!
March 19, 2010 at 18:00
Have a great weekend Mark & all fellow Piphutters.
March 20, 2010 at 07:53
Morning all. Good weekend to you all. I had to move to other pairs yesterday so I watched news. There was a lot of news about CAD so I opened CADJPY and buum that was a hit. Up and then down. I don’t care if that was scalping or anything but it was nice ride and it almost totally recovered my account state.
Question for all of you.
I had a little brainstorming yesterday. I was thinking of making a website where all forex traders could come and vote for bullish or bearish state of pair every 4 hours.
So we have EURUSD for example. You can come anytime and vote once every 4 hours or maybe as much as you want. You vote bullish or bearish for next 4 hours. And percentage of voting could be relatively good indicator.
What do you think?
March 20, 2010 at 08:50
Something like this – http://polldaddy.com/poll/2927174/
March 20, 2010 at 14:42
Hi everyone. Just wanted to complement you all for your passion for trading and the collegial spirit that reigns which sets this site apart from others.
Shorted late at 1.3534, sl at 1.3586 on friday, not making any pips yet but looking to 1.3440 and 1.3390 as my profit targets. Anybody with a similar outlook for next week?
Have a lovely weekend folks.
March 20, 2010 at 14:57
hi,
May be you should let it go up a bit and then short, otherwise it sounds like a good trade. Keep an eye out for news on the PIGS…..ESPECIALLY Greece.