3-2-10
4:04a GMT – Shooting stars led the way yesterday with a great one occurring right before our big drop on the 10:00 gmt candle (1h, did you see it on the candlestick alert system?) It occurred a bit low but the trade was valid for a few reasons: 1) it was higher than the previous 14 candles, lending credibility to it, 2) the tip of it just touched our 1.3650 resistance which has been on the charts for days now, and 3) 1.3700 offered a great resistance level to hide a stop-loss behind. The best stop-losses are such that if it is reached then the technical picture of the pair changes. With 1.3700 if it was breached I would no longer be bearish on the pair. Luckily the large stop loss was more than made up for with the massive 200 pip drop and though I didn’t capture all of that I captured enough ;).
Daily Outlook: We are in a bit of a range right now, between 1.3700 and 1.3450 and a break of either level will give us some indication of the short-term direction of the pair. We are in longer-term downtrend, for certain, but the double-dojis on the weekly chart give me enough reason to respect the 1.3450 support for now. A good break of this level would invalidate those dojis, however, and open up a run at 1.3380 and 1.3300.
Trading Idea: First selling area is in short-term key resistance of 1.3580 which held yesterday’s eventual rally and is also the 61.8% resistance of the big drop. I will look for short signals in this area with targets at 1.3555, 1.3520 and 1.3480.
(click to enlarge)
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March 2, 2010 at 17:00
NNE MBAH Austria.
LISA,
Thank you for your best wishes see you tomorrow morning.
March 2, 2010 at 17:01
Hi,
Is the 16.00 GMT on the H1 a hanging man or a hammer or is it something else?
March 2, 2010 at 17:03
Could anyone please tell me, in CAD USD pair, in 15 minutes chart the MACD is crossing the signal line in downward direction, and in 1 Hour chart MACD is crossing the signal line in upward direction. Which time frame signal is more reliable ?
March 2, 2010 at 18:14
the longer time periods are more relaible .
March 2, 2010 at 17:13
retracement is done for today, it must go down now right ???
March 2, 2010 at 17:41
The only thing anyone know for sure in the forex market is that there is no “must” or “has to”. It could continue up to the 1.3700 or it could reverse.
March 2, 2010 at 17:45
finaly… im short, looks sort of like a turn now
March 2, 2010 at 17:55
Based on a bunch of other crosses where i see all sorts of turn signals, lets see how it works out.
March 2, 2010 at 17:56
Hi where ar you short from – im considering going short too just waiting to see the candle on the hour, im thinking it may just push through the 1.3500 what are you looking for? Thanks Graham
March 2, 2010 at 18:05
I was wrong, its gonna hit my stop at 1.3610 i think.
March 2, 2010 at 18:17
Oh no! I have just been sitting on the fence as the last candle looked really strong to me?
March 2, 2010 at 17:49
Anyone considering a short if there is a shooting star on the hour?
March 2, 2010 at 17:51
Mark, iam just learning the candlestick alert.
are the alerts posted before the OR after the price corresponding price movement?
Thank you.
March 2, 2010 at 18:44
David, I don’t understand your question. Lets take a look at an example. If a shooting star were to form on the 1h chart right now nothing would happen – because the hour has not closed yet so that shooting star could morph into something else. But if at the close of the hour that shooting star is still present the CAS will list it as a “shooting star” for the last hour.
Does that explanation answer your question?
March 2, 2010 at 18:53
yes, it answers my question. thanks
March 2, 2010 at 17:51
I`m done for today! Nailed 79pips today :D
March 2, 2010 at 17:57
As a side note, I’d rather see an edit button than a chat room. I hate it when I look back at my previous posts and see a type that I can’t fix.
March 2, 2010 at 18:03
Just hit the 1.3600 resistance… what is it going to do?…
March 2, 2010 at 18:08
Good question.
I’m not sure. Wait for confirmation. Checking US finance news now.
March 2, 2010 at 18:05
Since most of us are already out with happy pips in our pocket, I have a DUM question.
How do the US guys report tax on FX earnings?
By the looks of it…I will be profitable for this year, and want to “do what is right”.
I know…there cannot not be any official professional tax advice here, but I’m just curious about best practices from my fellow pippers.
March 2, 2010 at 21:05
There are special tax rules for profit/loss in forex (as well as other markets).
I would use an experienced CPA, or an experienced, certified tax preparer who specializes in the markets, to do things right the first time, especially if there are losses. If there are large gains, you have to know what to do to report earnings regularly. So, again, invest the money in someone who will represent you and guide you every step of the way.
Also, certain things have to be tracked year-by-year, so if you try to learn to do it by yourself and you mess up, it will cause a lot of headaches. Plus, tax laws are constantly changing.
March 2, 2010 at 18:19
Who ever invented popcorn shrimp,, should get a raise..
March 2, 2010 at 18:20
A couple of resistance broken.
Next good short entry at 1.3635 ? What do you think?
March 2, 2010 at 18:27
That looks like a good place.. It would make me feel a little better..
March 2, 2010 at 18:58
The euro advanced on the dollar Tuesday, riding on the coattails of the Australian and Canadian dollars.
This explains why EUR bulls are out.
But I bet ya, once US and CAD EOB is over, bad EUR news will bring some bears out.
1.3635 is looking better and better.
March 2, 2010 at 19:02
I hope we get there. Then I can hide my stop behind that trend line coming off the 2/17 high and have minimal risk.. We will have to see… How is your day going Mr. JohnR I thought I saw you grab some pips earlier..
March 2, 2010 at 19:05
Going great! Already got PIPs in my Pocket! That’s spelt PIP-IMP !
Was ready to quit for the day, but the interesting trail of bad US news is getting us nearer to a great SHORT entry.
March 2, 2010 at 19:07
Let’s improve that acronym to PIPIP! Pips in pocket.
March 2, 2010 at 18:44
I must confess that this is the best forum i have come accross.The signals are very good and contributions are constructive.I hope i will be of help over time.
March 2, 2010 at 18:53
Emanual,
I discovered awhile back that just by being here and posting you are a help. By having all of us together I have found it helps to keep me on track and accountable to my trading plan as well as not get frustated over the losses.
March 2, 2010 at 18:52
hello.who is there?is this bull power very strong,
can i buy?
March 2, 2010 at 18:59
Don’t buy!! IMO. Safer to wait for high point to SHORT instead.
March 2, 2010 at 18:57
Eur/Usd is now at 1.3621. what is pushing up the up the price?
March 2, 2010 at 19:00
See my earlier News flash. CAD is going strong today, and EUR is riding it.
It’s all good… giving us an even better SHORT entry later when US EOB comes.
March 2, 2010 at 19:19
US EOB? whats that? its today?
March 2, 2010 at 19:21
EOB = End of Business day. Happens everyday.
March 2, 2010 at 19:22
Aaaah! Yes that makes perfect sence, haha! thanx
March 2, 2010 at 19:25
hehe…no problem. Use that term at work everyday.
March 2, 2010 at 19:19
so john.pls dont say am bothering you oh.
what should i do for now.
am a newbie
March 2, 2010 at 19:25
As far as today’s signals…. they are over. Meaning, they were good only if you’re entered about 6 to 10 hours ago. You can obviously see that we are way above our intended short signals at 1.3580. That is old news now. The market has broken through those resistance.
By now, you’ve probably learning that we always wait for a good entry point.
At this point, I’m waiting for 1.3635, and short if that happens. If it doesn’t, I’ll wait another day.
Thanks for coming to piphut. Observe, learn and get ‘em pips!
March 2, 2010 at 19:34
I appreciate ur reply John R
March 2, 2010 at 19:30
Does anyone around trade usdchf? it has a very good correlation with eurusd. they always move in the opposite direction.
March 2, 2010 at 19:46
Hello Emmanuel. i trade the USDCHF sometimes because of it’s correlation to the EURUSD, but I’ve learned that I trade better just trading one of the two because if you trade both and you’re wrong on one of them….guess what….you’ll be wrong on both. correlation can be just as much help as hindrance. i have also tried trading these pairs as a hedge, meaning i would sell both at the same time or buy both at the same time, but that pretty much just cancels out any progress because while you’re gaining on one, you’re losing on the other. just my 2 cents.
March 2, 2010 at 20:02
Yes i agree with you. it should not just be traded bcos they are correlated. they should be basis for entry and exit, the correlation is basic.
March 2, 2010 at 19:53
The market volume is very low, with little movement. Surely the big players haven’t gone for the day.
March 2, 2010 at 19:59
Just caught 20 pips off that 15m shooting star,
March 2, 2010 at 20:11
where did you see that shooting star? i really want to learn candle sticks
March 2, 2010 at 21:26
just watching price, I don’t have a indi for candlesticks, there’s plenty of them out there but I think they are useless. check out this site
http://www.candlestickchart.com/glossary.html
March 2, 2010 at 20:25
Yeah man. I have a cheat sheet of what the candlesticks definitions are…but too slow to identify them before entering…:P
Do you have an indicator code for MT4 that you mind sharing with us? Or maybe there are other websites that have live updates on candlestick formations..I appreciate any info.
March 2, 2010 at 20:38
John, I’m updating the Candlestick Alert System to include more candlestick formations. Which ones are you looking for in particular?
March 2, 2010 at 21:10
15m shooting star like how David spotted.
But don’t just ask me, I’m new to candlesticks.
Let’s get a consensus on what Candlestick vs time frame are the most consistent.
So far, I’ve seen good probabilities on your 30 Min CAS. If 15M is effective, let’s add that. But let’s ask the pros on what formations are really necessary, and not clutter CAS.
Thanks for your invaluable service…btw.
March 2, 2010 at 21:35
Evening stars are deadly.
March 2, 2010 at 21:10
John – Check with your broker to see if they have any additional indicators for download to your mt4 platform. I got one from mine that identifies candlesticks to trade on.
March 2, 2010 at 20:28
Hello Friends,
I short the pair at 1.3596, after seeing the shooting star in the 15 minutes chart, and after the closing confirming red candle, but I guess it was not enough, and the pair is moving up, Should I book the loss ?
March 2, 2010 at 21:13
Bruce makes a point that we are in a downtrend and it should come back to you.
However you should always have a stop loss when entering your trade to protect your capital. If you are afraid to lose money on a stop loss then it isn’t a good trade to enter in the first place.
March 2, 2010 at 21:25
It’s settling at around 1.3605 now…and not too far from your short entry.
If you want to cut your losses…do it now. It’s decent.
If you want to wait, I think it may pump down a little when EUR session opens in a few hours…as it looks like Greece has more bad news. But even then, I’m not sure how strong the bears will be…and I would be actually looking to break even at your entry (1.3596) during that session.
The opportunity to make good gains for today is over(unless you are the type to scalp every 15M – then it’s NEVER over). US Markets are closing, and the market is ranging narrowly now. Wait for tomorrow for a good entry.
March 2, 2010 at 21:27
One more thing…you did do the right thing…spotting a shooting star and waiting for confirmation. It’s just one of the times when the candlesticks don’t deliver.
Good job for spotting and entering after confirmation.
March 2, 2010 at 20:54
Ado I am letting it ride I did the same thing. If you can handle the T/L up to about 1.3700 I would just play it out. But then again I am only playing with pennies here.
March 2, 2010 at 22:01
Short 3610, Stop 3700, 1 Micro Lot. We think alike….
March 2, 2010 at 21:17
Until it starts downward, just sit and observe. GBPUSD is also stalled. Hopefully, they will both head south at the same time. All I know is that between 1.36 (where it is now) and 1.37, it will most likely head down. Wait for it to turn. Mark tells us where to look for the signal. It’s up to us to recognize the signal.
March 2, 2010 at 21:53
Thank you very much for your kind reply Bruce and John R. I really appreciate that.
March 2, 2010 at 23:58
GBPUSD and EURUSD are now both moving. GBP is moving faster. I look for EURUSD to do whatever GBP does.
March 3, 2010 at 01:09
7 o’clock, Houston time, and I’m looking at a real nice toothpick for the last completed candlestick. It has shown a small drop. I’m in, and stopped out at 0 profit, but I’m not positive this is it. It’s slow — or I’m impatient.
March 3, 2010 at 02:43
Wow, nice looking shooting star, the one about 20 down.. I bet there are some seller that got in there that are felling trapped now.. I am glad not one,, that looks like a nice sell candle to me.. Trend line still holding for now at least….
March 3, 2010 at 04:11
Seems like it’s falling for the past 10 minutes. Bit by bit.
March 3, 2010 at 04:16
There is a doji in 1 Hour chart, and also a confirmation candle. Is it a good sign to short ? The current rate is 1.3528
March 3, 2010 at 04:22
no idea, i’m still waiting for Mark’s analysis.
March 3, 2010 at 04:23
Your guess is as good as mine. I am very tempted,,, do to the doji’s and the shooting star/doji on the 4 hour chart.. Also the bounce off a trend line I have on my chart.. My gut tells me were going up a little more though.. I think I’ll sit back till the top of the hour..
March 3, 2010 at 04:39
I guess you are right Matthew.
March 3, 2010 at 04:45
I would like to see this thing drop but I don’t think it will till London session.. We have some big news coming out in the next 10 hours so I will be putting on my focus/cautious cap on.. ??
March 3, 2010 at 04:46
Matthew in your opinion what are the best 3 Time Frames ?
I use 15 minutes and 1 Hour, Should I also use 4 Hour as well, and basically I am a day trader.
March 3, 2010 at 04:52
Yep me to,, I try and stay in the higher time frames, signals take longer to form but they are more reliable. I do use the same as you though.. I have found them best for my trading style..
March 3, 2010 at 04:54
my favorite is the 1 hour and the 4 hour time frame..
March 3, 2010 at 05:01
I also use MACD indicator, but sometimes it confuses me when in the 1 Hour chart MACD crosses the signal line upwards, and in the 15 minutes chart it crosses the signal line downwards. In this situation which is the better Time Frame to follow ?
March 3, 2010 at 06:19
I don’t use Indicators other than the 100 and 200 ema just a glance or two a day,, maybe.. I have learned that the higher time frames have precedents over the shorter time frames.. Now I’m sure there is some one out there that would argue with me but what I have learned for me the higher out weighs the lower… See I just use the S&R lines and candles trend lines.. I have learned to be patient and not to feel bad if I don’t win every trade.. Even the dig dogs lose.. Just take the trades that give you the highs probability to go your way.. It’s a numbers game…