Yesterday Recap: Not a whole lot of action again with the EUR/USD yesterday as the pair moved only 100 pips from high to low and the open close was only about 25 pips apart. On the daily chart we were left with a bullish looking candle with a long wick just touching rising support. Its a good thing I also trade other pairs because EUR/USD has been about as exciting as watching paint dry this week so far.
Daily Outlook: Luckily there are some interesting times ahead for our favorite pair and a lot of different trading scenarios today! As you can see on the 4-hour chart (now to the upper right and with a pretty watermark when you click on it) the pair is forming a triangle consolidation pattern. This consolidation is a perfect example of how technicals mirror the fundamental world: the market is trying to figure out how to deal with the Greek (and Portugal, and Spain, and….) issue. If Greece defaults because it can’t fund its debt, to what extent will the EU step in? And then if Portugal defaults, will the monetary fractures in Europe be too deep to fix? I can’t blame the Germans for not wanting to finance Greece’s bad planning.
Trading Idea: I’ve got quite a few options laid out on the day. First I can look to range trade between the bands (i.e. sell falling trend resistance currently at 1.3685 and buy at the rising support currently at 1.3550). Second option is to wait for the market to provide a hint and sell/buy a breakout (sell if 1.3650 is broken and buy if 1.3700 is broken). Third option, and the most aggressive by far, is to take advantage of the mini consolidation pattern forming on the 30m and 1hr charts currently (see second chart down on right hand side). As you can see we’ve had a nice tight range pattern within the overall triangle between 1.3585- 1.3615. The aggressive trade would be to buy an upside break of this pattern’s resistance (1.3620) and to sell a break of the support (1.3580). Warning on the aggressive trade: it is riskier and I wouldn’t try if if you don’t know what you are doing! Also given the positioning the upside is slightly favored and has more room to move for an upside break.
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March 10, 2010 at 20:49
Greece is making us all problems. Why do they have such a bad money management. Maybe we should teach them how it’s done.
March 10, 2010 at 22:28
In the aftermath of what has happened to the U.S. markets, I hardly think that this country should tell anyone how it is done.
March 10, 2010 at 22:45
Not that country. Us the traders here on piphut. Did I wrote something different? and BTW, USA is not the only country in the world in crisis. The whole world is in a quite money problems.
March 11, 2010 at 17:46
Ahh, OK…I misunderstood who you were referring to.
March 10, 2010 at 21:15
Thank you Emmanuel(Nigeria) for your kind reply.