3-5-10
3:38a GMT – I was doing a lot of work on the upcoming PipHut features today so I didn’t chat in the forums much (sorry if I missed anything) but the bears were out in full force yesterday. The daily falling resistance was never reached but I did enter into a short on a triple candlestick confirmation that was hard to ignore. On the 30m chart, or anyone checking the Candlestick Alerts (have you bookmarked that yet??), we had a bearish doji, a bearish shooting star followed by ANOTHER shooting star just below 1.3700 resistance. Here’s an image of what the candlestick alerts showed you:
The times listed are the OPEN times of the candle in GMT. I covered on the bullish hammer (which the CAS also showed) a few hours later for about 70 pips per lot, though the pair continued to drop for about 50+ pips after that.
Daily Outlook: Currently the pair has bounced off of the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of 1.3550 (retracement of March 2nd low to March 3rd high) and is drifting upward in search of bears. It is Friday and markets have been volatile this week so no shame in taking the day off, but I will look for some very specific setups to trade. If the conditions are not met I will stay out of the markets.
Note on Calendar: Non-Farms Payroll data and unemployment data comes out today. I’m primarily a technical trader so I believe that data is baked into the charts BUT I still avoid the markets during the release of big news and realize that any major deviance from expectations can cause a shift in the technical picture. Unemployment is expected to be 9.8% (up from 9.7%) and NFP is expected to come in at -25k (from -20k last period). Any major change from these numbers and I will let the charts settle before jumping back in.
Trading Idea: First setup I’m looking for is for the pair to drift, small candle by small candle up, to 1.3630 resistance and give me a long wick extinction candle that just touches resistance. From 1.3630 short targets will be 1.3600, 1.3575 and 1.3550. Second trade is if 1.3600 holds and the pair makes a sharp break of 1.3540, I will look for targets of 1.3510, 1.3480 and 1.3450. For aggressive traders the pair just displayed a bearish shooting star an hour ago on the 1h charts.
Happy pipping and have a great weekend!
(click to enlarge)
Quick Links:
Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
Forex Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forex Forums
March 5, 2010 at 15:32
why is it going up like a raging bull!? Was there any good news about EURO in the NFP?????
March 5, 2010 at 16:01
Is a Hanging Man in 4 Hour Chart? Kindly confirm, Thanks
March 5, 2010 at 16:11
i see it as a bullish hammer on h4 because it coms from above price swing high 1,3735 and the swinglow is 1,3535
March 5, 2010 at 16:03
bullish hammer 1hr 1300 gmt was a nice signal in my eyes
March 5, 2010 at 16:15
too late for me :p
March 5, 2010 at 16:24
thanks mark for your advice again nice gain 1,3600 to 1,3630
im having a good friday
March 5, 2010 at 16:34
Mark your killin me man if this thing turns into a shooting star with the tail hitting the 3530 I am going to die.. I am now stating to wonder who you really are, and why you know so much…. weo,weo,weo,weo;)
March 5, 2010 at 16:35
I meant the 3630…My bad lol:)
March 5, 2010 at 16:39
Maybe he is JOHN TITOR
March 5, 2010 at 16:44
lol:0 really,, I am waiting for this candle to close and if it goes down I am really going to have a cow.. I mean c’mon, I know it a trend line coming down but to call it to the pip.. I will be sold even more than I am now..
March 5, 2010 at 16:46
connect the top from 3 march and 4 march you see
March 5, 2010 at 16:52
Yep I have it on my chart,, but it could have bounced off any where from 650 to 620 but rite to the pip.. This is not the first time he has done this.. The guy is good,, and that is all I got to say about that :)
March 5, 2010 at 17:20
I am following you here Matthew…
March 5, 2010 at 16:48
Ya he has always been pretty right on, I used to be harder to follow his trades, now with the candle alerts its much easyer to see the ones he will take or not take. I jumped in for small amount short at 1.3625, waiting for close to add more.
March 5, 2010 at 16:51
What’s up everybody..
just came home from Alice in Wonderland movie with my wife.. and seeing a nice chance to short.. looks like im home just in time.. lol
March 5, 2010 at 16:53
Was that a good movie,, I was wondering if it is kid friendly or will they come out scared for life..
March 5, 2010 at 16:58
It was great.. I dont think kids will be scared… Bored.. maybe… scared? no..
hahahaha
March 5, 2010 at 17:18
Cool, thanks ifan, I think that’s what I’ll do.. :)
March 5, 2010 at 16:59
im in
March 5, 2010 at 17:01
Lets Rock
March 5, 2010 at 17:00
scary!
March 5, 2010 at 17:17
Its scary how HE could know.
March 5, 2010 at 17:32
he’s like master Yoda
March 5, 2010 at 17:02
i know i love it
March 5, 2010 at 17:47
rock!
March 5, 2010 at 17:02
Is it too late in the day to get in for the shooting star ?
March 5, 2010 at 17:03
WOW!!!! Rod Stewart comes to mind lol:) ( have I told you latley exc,exc,,)
March 5, 2010 at 17:06
i see the weekly pivot as my bass line
March 5, 2010 at 17:21
This week was a lesson. I got into strong movements — but at the very end. I chose bull and it went bear or vice versa. I cut my losses, only to see sudden reversals. But the constant talk on this forum about money management has surely saved me money. Next week, I will win. But this week, I want to thank all of you for helping me lose properly. I remain in the black, but boy, oh boy, did I bleed red this week.
March 5, 2010 at 20:44
I know how you feel. The reports were GOOD news. But instead, the market decides on US risk taking…and it goes the other way.
Don’t know what to trust anymore.
Just saying that the big players decide on what they want to do. The normal reaction or decide to take more risk. Hope we can get inside the big player’s chats….lol. They make money no matter what…because the market moves because of their trades.
March 5, 2010 at 17:28
nice
March 5, 2010 at 17:33
yes 1 target hit and now my stoploss is breakeven +1
Great!
March 5, 2010 at 18:16
Curious, the close of the Shooting Star candle was 1.3603 the hi of course was signal at 1.3630. How could you have gotten any pips to first target of 1.3600 unless you jumped in before shooting star alert candle ended let alone the confirmation candle.
March 5, 2010 at 18:52
i jumped in at 1,3603 and the weekly pivot is 1,3592
1,3592 was my target first take profit 10 pip
and the second half i set brreak even +1 pip at 1,3602
so i got 11 pips profit
so its a small gain in pips but its a winner
March 5, 2010 at 20:39
Ok I see, thought you were refering to the piphut exits, IE short 1.3630 first target 1.3600, but you were useing diff. targets. Thought you were saying your got 20 or so pips off of Marks Signals, IE shorted around 1.3630 and out about 1.3600, anyways good job, I lost a bit on it hated to put stop at even and it cost me…. Good Weekend
March 5, 2010 at 18:05
hmm, no action at all
March 5, 2010 at 18:09
Oh well better luck next time… Kinda stupid with 2 bears signals and no down movement.. It’s Friday..:)
March 5, 2010 at 18:40
hmm, trendline from 3 march 1600 gmt to 5 march 1600 gmt. (1h chart) looks good, lets see if it holds. id post a picture but its pretty clear.
March 5, 2010 at 18:43
Yep.. I am holding my position few a few more here.. Two bear sigs and maybe a bear doji has me thinking downward.. So I’ll take the risk.. I don’t like trading this late in the day on a Friday though..
March 5, 2010 at 18:51
yeah, im gonna hold “few a few more” here as well (hehe!)
But seriously, i think its worth a shoot.
March 5, 2010 at 18:54
I’m hiding my SL behind the trend line.. If they find it they it.. It’s not over till it’s over.. More trades next week to make it up..
March 5, 2010 at 19:03
Well I have learned that I don’t type well.. I meant to say if they find it they find it lol:) Well I am out,, Leaving the trade open on hopes that maybe, just maybe it will work out,, I will check here in a bit and see what happened but It is not looking good right now.. You all have a wonderful weekend,, Bye now..:)
March 5, 2010 at 21:29
that line is putting up a fight but im losing faith in this. Im taking the loss and have a beer or three instead, have a nice weekend everyone.
March 5, 2010 at 20:14
closed my short at break even. Have a good weekend all!
March 5, 2010 at 20:18
Have a good weekend too = )
March 5, 2010 at 20:20
I took a little hit.. I think I figured out how you did that 3630 thing.. Week open at 3630 area and for the last couple of weeks we have had doji’s on the weekly chart… Is that it.. Am I close? Anyway how ever you did it I am impressed.. You have a great week end Mr Mark..;)
March 6, 2010 at 03:15
Hi, i am back fro, ala meditation en chaingmai doi sutep.
I am cool and calm. i cut my losses irrelavnt of loss. n
I heard my friend mike.is.lydon made some great profit non stop from piphut. He said mark is damn good. and glen is so cute.
So we really lookforward to 400% increase in capital by the end of this year.
Euro greek problem , my fxdd was so called frozen. and we are moving to malta. Has anyone been there? So you know anything about malta and the banks? should we be buying malta currency?
March 8, 2010 at 06:17
hello mark,
I have not seen the signal today. Hope you are having a good weekend.