3-3-10
5:14a GMT -Yesterday’s primary trade, a sell off of 1.3580 held on the initial touch to put pips in our pockets but bulls eventually bullied (you like that? :) there way back up to 1.3650. In all it was a very volatile day with 6-8 candles over 50 pips in length alone. This increase in volatility actually steers me toward a ranging forecast, however, as volatility usually tightens before a major *pop*, like the quiet before a storm.
Daily Outlook: 1.3450 support has been tested three times on three separate days and has held firm each time. Firm might actually be an understatement – every time the support has been touched the pair has raced upward 200 pips! More concerning for the bears though is the two massive dojis on the weekly chart with the now forming bullish hammer. Each time that support holds it makes a retracement more likely as bears may decide to wait for a better entry price higher up as I am now doing. Last hour we had a shooting star on the 1h near 1.3650 resistance but I no longer feel great about getting a good risk/reward from this level so I will hold off, waiting for a shorting opportunity closer to 1.3700.
Trading Idea: Still looking to short as the primary trade, with candlestick confirmation int he 1.3700 area. Targets at 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3615 and 1.3580. The battle at 1.3580 will be interesting though, and aggressive bull traders will be looking for longs in this 1.3580-1.3550 on a retracement.
(click to enlarge)
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Well, I am sorry Emmanuel (Nigeria) , I don’t agree with you, I guess everyone has his own stretegy, and fully responsible for what he does, not only in FX busniness but in any business of life. Here we discuss and share the ideas, which is the main purpose of this platform, and when we spend time with each other, there is no harm in sharing each other stretegies. After all we all are here to earn some money, so why not earn by helping each other.
No doubt,i have learnt a lot from this platform and that is why i’m contributing.which part of my comment don’t you agree with, it can’t be eveything i said
Hello, I know very little a bout forex (just trying some robot trading)but I would like to follow todays signal – it said that when it reaches 1.3700 we can go short – “with candlestick confirmation”. I understand that to find out about those candlestick things, I have to look here http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/. But there the last published candlesticks are bullish. So that means I should still wait until some “bearish” candlestick will be published on that website ? Do I get it right please ?
yes sir thats a good short version
Ado…forex can be a very lonely business for sure and it is by sharing and helping that everyone learns and builds confidence in their own method/system.
making pips is the goal not setting a pip goal
Oh, now I see that on 30m timeframe there is bearish candlestick. Does it mean that if I want to trade according to Mark, I can go short now ? Do I understand it properly ?
you can yes but it is always best to trade according to michael and use Mark for added conformation
if anyone trades UJ
Prices on Usd/Jpy hit new lows recently, which suggest that an impulsive decline from the 92.14 top is not yet finished. be looking for a wave 5 that is in progress, after a triangle was formed in wave 4. Triangles always appear prior to the final actionary wave, which means that Usd/Jpy should now be trading in a final bearish leg
and have a look at aud/jpy as well
interest rate decision by the Bank of England this Thursday morning at 0700AM Eastern, the European Central Bank follows up at 0745AM Eastern with their decision on interest rates. If that isn’t enough, on Friday morning at about 0830 AM Eastern, the US Department of Labor releases the Nonfarm Payrolls. These three events are as big as it gets for news releases and traders are reacting by just letting the EUR/USD bounce between support and resistance
Some traders like trading this environment and do quite well, but there are two things to keep in mind. You have to respect the strong downtrend this pair was in before this range bound condition, which means that sells are the preferred play over buys. You also have to be aware of those news releases so you don’t get caught up in a volatile move. Checking out the economic calendar at the beginning of each trading week can offer great hints on what to expect during the week and this week is a good example
If history teaches us anything, it’s that when even ONE major government defaults on its debts, economic chaos follows. Unfortunately, it’s a lesson that few investors have learned.
The truth is, when investors even suspect that such a thing could happen, the economic damage can be crippling. The following crisis unfolds in four, quick steps:
FIRST, since a sovereign debt default would inevitably cause ALL bonds to crash, investors stampede for the bond market exits, dumping as much as they can as fast as they can.
SECOND, as the bond market reels, interest rates skyrocket and credit tightens. The rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, auto loans and other long-term debts soar. Rates tied to short-term money markets — on credit cards and variable mortgages — follow.
THIRD, consumers — whose spending represents fully 70% of the economy — snap their pocketbooks shut.
FOURTH, corporate earnings and stock prices crater. As the economy hits the skids, unemployment soars.
Clearly, these events would be the coup de grâce to an economic recovery as fragile as this one is.
They would almost surely transform a Great Recession into a Great DOUBLE-DIP Recession …
Plunging us into the second bear market in three years …
Lighting the fuse on a second explosion in unemployment, and …
Triggering a second surge in personal and corporate bankruptcies.
We’ve known for some time that Italy and Ireland are at risk for default — and just this week, we saw how investors’ fears have caused them to begin dumping British pounds and gilts (bonds) like there’s no tomorrow.
Plus, the soaring cost of Credit Default Swaps — “insurance policies” that protect investors against default — on the debt of Greece, Portugal, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Iceland and the Ukraine is a clear sign that investors believe they are also at elevated risk of default.
Put simply, it would only take ONE sovereign debt default to crush this anemic recovery … but no fewer than TEN major Western countries are now at risk!
Now show me any reason for a sustained rally?
Very well said Tom!
The SP500 is not following this rally and it has no real legs
The monthly DT line from the Oct07-Jan09 tops is at 1118.92 this month. The weekly DT line is at 1127.99 this week. The daily is at 1028.83 today. The 78.6% retracement of the move from 1150.45 to 1044.50 is at 1127.77. There is also a hourly gap that the market made coming down & may try to close between 1126.95-1127.38. The market broke a major balance point on my weekly chart at 1126.79 coming up from the 666.69 bottom and I have always felt that the market might test this before wave C begins
I think we are close to the drop I have been waiting for. AND no this has nothing to do with VSA
The elevator is the easy ride in foex
SP500 volume is not cooperating with price: it is declining on rallies, increasing on drops. This is the opposite of what happened during the comparable drop from Jun11 to Jul9 last year. The S&P is also 10% above the 50 DMA, a condition many consider overbought. Pullback due?
trade smart but I am gone until tomorrow now. put some pivot points on your charts and plot some fibs, they give really nice S/R points to work from as well as Marks…he is a Wizard at them :)
Great posts, Mr. Tom.
Hey Tom,
Good to see you after a few days!
I think a shooting star is forming at 1H chart. What do you think?
nop
looks like my resistance line is holding… for now
OK..I’m out from my 1.3700 short, with a very small loss at 1.3710 (better than 1.3750). I’m not waiting any longer…the commodities bulls ruined the short trend behavior.
On a positive note, my 401K stocks made a good $200+ profit for the day.
Well, since 1.3700 was ignored quickly, I really don’t know where it’s going at. My analysis and trade for today is closed and old news now.
I will probably wait until after Friday for a better sense of long term direction. We’ve had a good short and long term SHORT trend the last few weeks. IMO, now some big players have something else in mind now.
Crude and stocks are going up (causes dollar weakness), and Greece is coming to a peace of mind.
We are getting closer to a crossroads at this point.
Ah poop,, I was just going to congratulate you on getting into safety… At least you had a small loss and not a big one.. For that I am happy ( not for your loss but for a better loss than the alternative ). Well talk to ya later…
Yeah..that’s true..I did get into safety zone there. But I didn’t know the future then, I just made the call and closed up for today.
Need some humble pie once in a while to break your winning streak. lol. Otherwise I might do something stupid like quit my day job or put down a downpayment for a boat or something. hehaha.
:) I hear ya,, Talk to ya later
I’m watching the 4 hour charts. Looks like a really nice shooting start might be forming.
sure your looking at eurusd?, cant see it.
If I was at home I’d post a pic of it, but instead I’m at work watching the market instead of…well, obviously we know where my priorities lie now!
I can see something that looks like it on 1h chart… but im considering a cautius bullish move, lets see if it breaks through here or not
ya Its a nice shooting star on the 4h i’m in the short side…
and breakeven
huh? u 2? why cant i see it? say what time does it start and end?
at the 4hr chart
it started at 1600 gmt and the end was at 2000 gmt
with a high of 1.3735 and a low of 1.3682
ok, thanx. its not a shooting star though. …unless something has gone wrong in my charts. It gave you some pips anyways as i understod it, good, hehe.
nightinight piips
? you should check your broker something has gone wrong in your charts… cheers
I’ve seen this many times before on 4h charts. In short, someone’s broker is most likely feeding them a GMT+1 chart which de-syncs trader’s 4-hour charts. GMT charts show a (not great, the body is a touch big) shooting star on 4h. GMT+1 charts do not. FXCM, for example, a very popular broker provides gmt+1 data.
OK guys, hope you had a good day. I’m hearing of small losses and break evens. I lost 10 pips, and will not lose sleep over it.
I guess it was a good day of experiencing the low probabilities.
I won’t trade tomorrow Thurs because I am sick and tired of losing in Forex… hehhaha just kidding. I have a professional cert exam to take. And we all know what the first friday is going to be like. So, we’ll chat again on Friday or Monday for those calling in a 3-day ‘traders’ weekend.
Have a great evening/day.
See ya John R. Have a good one!
So I missed the trading day mostly. Had to put some hours in at the real job, and had to catch up on the 200+ posts on the day.
However, I am putting a few things together about our Piphut leader called Mark, and one day the mystery will be solved!
Some say he is a man from the future, some say he is a wizard, he knows a lot about carpentry and wood, he answers many redundant questions with patience and understanding, while also having many disciples following him daily here at piphut!
we may only know as history unfolds!!!!! long live PIPHUT!
just came back from shower and see a doji on 4h chart, cant go to bed now. im short!
(tuctuc, the bottom wick is a bit too long for me to call it a shooting star, but technicly you might be right)
i hope i’m a litle right because im still in and learning.
Sometimes i just wanne see it, its paying off this time and for u 2 at this moment.
ladors
go to sleep!
Im having my morning coffee .. lol
morning ifan! i will go to sleep when it hits 1,3685
don’t worry be happy
My broker give me 4H charts with these intervals:
0H – 4H
4H – 8H
8H – 12H
12H – 16H
16H – 20H
20H – 24H
Mark, is this your normal 4H Chart interval?
All 4h charts have this interval pattern – but 0:00 GMT is different than 0:00 GMT+1 which is different than GMT +2, etc etc
wow, it was really a bull run 5 hours ago. Now it’s stealthily dropping. Bit by bit down.
Hi Mark, how do i make use of your candlestick alert? The way I see it, it feels like there’s a time lag. Usually, do you trade immediately after seeing that 30m or 1h sign in the candlestick alert? I see a 1 and a half hour difference from the current time and the time the sign was posted.
Candlesticks are posted within 40 seconds of the candle CLOSE. The time listed is the candle’s OPEN so it looks like it has a 1h and 30m delay :)
If I look at the first candlestick post of 30m, it means that candlestick is already PAST (closed already)? But how do I make use of it? I’m still confused by that heading “open time(GMT)” and “current time” which is stated above the posted candlestick signs.
are you in?
shorted earlier but was kicked out due to tight stop loss of about 7-8 pips. It’s climbing up at the moment as seen in the 1 minute chart.