Yesterday Recap: Good morning or good evening PipHutters – wherever you might live on this globe! It is a funny thing all this great technology that allows a group of people from all across the world (even the South Pole) to meet together and work together every day. As always, PipHut is about you all, the community, so thanks for making PipHut what it is :). Ok, enough of that. Yesterday was a relatively pointless day for the EUR/USD pair. It seemed like we were going to get some action around 1.3680, about 10 hours ago and the pair has more or less just drifted ever since. I took a two shorts on the pair on some bearish candlesticks for a net break even.
Daily Outlook: Here we are finally at 1.3700 (after 3 days of waiting) and, unfortunately the price has drifted so far that the technical picture is not as short term bearish as it once was. The price broke through the hourly falling trend resistance yesterday (a bullish sign) but left the daily trend resistance intact (a bearish sign) which is the top blue trend line on the graph below. We have also had two consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows. Toss the bullish candlesticks we’ve had the past few weeks on the weekly charts and their is ample reason to be looking for longs. Which leads me to my strategy to close out the week: given the mixed signals as to the trend I will continue to look for short confirmation candles at 1.3700 and (more importantly) at the daily resistance of 1.3740. But I will also be on the lookout for long opportunities in a return to 1.3625 support.
Trading Idea: It is Friday and we do have USD news (check the forex calendar for more details) coming out at 13:30 GMT so conservative trades are my preferred route today. Primary trade is a short in the area of falling trend resistance around 1.3740, with targets at 1.3710, 1.3680 and 1.3645 OR a long in the vicinity of 1.3625 support with candlestick confirmation. Bull targets from there are 1.3650, 1.3680 and 1.3710. A more aggressive trade (not my cup of tea on Fridays) would be a short at 1.3700 with targets down to 1.3600.
Happy trading today PipHutters and thanks for being such a great community to work with!
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March 12, 2010 at 12:18
Pls can somebody tell me the current price EURUSD,am not close to my system,
March 12, 2010 at 12:24
13767.5 ask
March 12, 2010 at 12:24
Hmm, im gonna wait and not rush into this. No power just same as before.
March 12, 2010 at 12:28
What a day, lost 3 trades in a row!!
March 12, 2010 at 15:36
Keep your head up. Don’t get discouraged. Losing is just as much a part of forex as winning. Losses should be seen as “business expenses”, and not as a horrible day. When you look at it that way, then emotionally you won’t be affected in a negative fashion.
March 12, 2010 at 15:46
Whenever anyone says something like this I want to star it, bold it and make it permanent. Losing is absolutely part of the game and needs to be accounted for in your strategy. It makes good money management and taking higher probability setups all the more important. If you have three winning days it is OK to have 3 losing days – you just have to be winning more pips than you lose over that 6 day span!
March 12, 2010 at 16:21
I want to compliment you, Mark, on your fine work and great mentorship skills. If you would like, I will assist in commenting on this blog with the goal of instilling the proper mindset for the group. I would like to “give back” and share the experience that I have acquired in this market since 2004. It would be my way of saying “thank you” for your dedication to this site.
March 12, 2010 at 12:38
all looks bully to me, I am waiting on a really good dip (3700 area) to go long. The daily downtrend line has been breached. I will sell a news spike though.
March 12, 2010 at 12:43
I am in Short for both EURUSD and GBPUSD with a really really tight SL and Take Profit. How long more till the news guys?
March 12, 2010 at 12:50
30 minutes
March 12, 2010 at 12:53
Come on USD..! You can do it :)
March 12, 2010 at 12:53
I found this site through google and I am glad that found this site. and I am new on forex. I negotiate sell in 1,3541. what you think where I should close negotiate. HELP ME PLEASE
March 12, 2010 at 12:57
News is favourable or not as per the forecasts ? Can’t find a decent website to make a decision about trading into the news.
Any one got a good resource out there ?
March 12, 2010 at 13:10
The forcast is good for the dollar
the european wants there currencie to stay as low as possible for export ..
March 12, 2010 at 13:11
SO you’d stay in a short if you were already in ?
March 12, 2010 at 13:14
Yes i decided to stay in my short and im gonne take my loss if im wrong.
and after that if im wrong im not gonne trade anymore on news time.
cheers
March 12, 2010 at 13:15
lol… you’re boosting me morale. :) Thanks! :)
March 12, 2010 at 13:03
Blew up my mini account while going against the uptrend. zzzZZZZzzzzzzzzzZ!!!!!
-_____________-
March 12, 2010 at 13:07
huh? how? no sl?
March 12, 2010 at 13:09
Sounds bad Glenn. Do remember a tight stop loss when it’s uncertain. My Stop loss held :) For how long I’m not sure.
March 12, 2010 at 13:13
I am new on forex. I open position sell at 1,3541 EUR/USD what you think where I should close my position. HELP ME PLEASE
March 12, 2010 at 13:16
O.M.G. we cannot decide for u
March 12, 2010 at 13:24
oO
March 12, 2010 at 13:17
I hope you ment 1.3741
March 12, 2010 at 13:18
Youshould have closed it long time ago JANAA. I suggest closing it now
March 12, 2010 at 13:19
Consider to set a tight sl and pray for the best!
March 12, 2010 at 13:23
5 minutes make or break time
March 12, 2010 at 13:27
DOes that look like a bullish doji forming or what..
March 12, 2010 at 13:32
Cool :) im happy
March 12, 2010 at 13:45
hope this is bullish doji for real… im hoping to close my positions at breakeven today!
March 12, 2010 at 13:53
Charged through resistance without so much as blinking. That is a very bullish sign.
March 12, 2010 at 14:28
i didnt see any bullish move for a while now, did u mean bearish?
March 12, 2010 at 16:26
ah, never mind, now when i think about it u must have ment on the way up. I just looked at the time of your post and teh chart.
March 12, 2010 at 14:09
I went short at 3770. Going good so far. I don’t like trading against trend but i thint this resistance will hold
March 12, 2010 at 14:17
1.3780 is strong daily resistance
March 12, 2010 at 14:15
Is anyone else short? Retail sales were good. I’m thinking US will start actually tightening monetary policy soon.
March 12, 2010 at 14:24
its now at the 50 % level off that 8:00 gmt 4h candle
for the second time so im out with some nice pips..
ppff
March 12, 2010 at 14:35
I don’t usually trade on fridays but I did take a short at 1.3773. GO BEARS!
March 12, 2010 at 14:38
Hello,once again what is the current price now,am far from my pc
March 12, 2010 at 14:39
1.3746
March 12, 2010 at 14:58
news release in a few minutes another heavy weight
March 12, 2010 at 15:15
eur/usd now at the 61.8 % level off that 8:00 gmt 4h candle
this could be a nice bullish signal
March 12, 2010 at 15:39
Short got triggerd, and im out now plus a few pips not as many as i would have kliked but positive so pleased, how you doing? Think im gona check the next candle if its a good signal im long for a quick 30 pips if i can then im gone ……
March 12, 2010 at 15:48
Im fine i have a bit off a cold but that doesn’t matter in the forex business i can do it out off my bed:) , how are u doing Graham B good i see .
i already went long at that 61.8 level and 20 pip up right now ,see what it will bring the 4hr candle closes in 12 minutes so we will see.
cheers
March 12, 2010 at 16:05
Thanks Mark I appreciate how much work you put in PipHut. I know its not as easy as it seems. There has been times I have spent 3-4 hours a day watching charts and you make it seem so simple. Thanks for sharing.
48 pips of profit is enough for today
“Sharing is Caring”
March 12, 2010 at 16:24
puh! wasnt sure that would work out… long after that 1430 hammer locked in safe mod now
Still a bit uncertain about bullish or not, but there dont seam to be much bearish power out there
March 12, 2010 at 16:39
closed it for tiny profit, seams to be less action now nothing happening.
March 12, 2010 at 16:49
I wish I was awake and looking at the cable chart at 7am GMT !!!
March 12, 2010 at 16:54
there will be a good gap play at 5238, that is if it makes it there today
March 12, 2010 at 16:53
Just a question, what time on the charts does the market closes for the weekend?
March 12, 2010 at 16:56
10PM GMT
March 12, 2010 at 17:05
5 more hours then. I’m in another short trade. Hope that is wise. Anyone else in?
March 12, 2010 at 17:18
Im still on… but seems like there wouldn’t be much change…. Need to wake up early on Monday! Goodluck to you!
March 12, 2010 at 17:20
I have two open trade short EURUSD, I have closed one +20pips now I put my sl to the 1.37800 and let other one run.
March 12, 2010 at 17:23
My SL is at 1.37800 too. Good luck folks, and good night from Malaysia.
March 12, 2010 at 17:30
We seem to be at the very top of the range on both EURUSD and GBPUSD, if you look on the daily charts. Both pairs have had a steep drop and then a rebound to our present levels and then another drop. Now it has, once again, rebounded to that upper level again. I bet it drops again, but it has only tested this level one other time. Here’s hoping.
March 12, 2010 at 18:28
I closed +25pips, total +45pips. Goodnight and Great Weekend everyone.
March 12, 2010 at 19:34
Well got overcome with stupid today. Every trade entered went the other way.. For some reason I thought it would be cool to trade off lower time frames, that never worked for me in the past and for some reason I thought it would today?????( I hate when that happens ). Because of this I think I will just take my toys and go home, I don’t want to play anymore, well till next week anyway,, lol:) No for real though it was a good week and once again I have tough myself that when I do not stick to my rules I lose.. Good week over all ended up banking some good pips… Thank you again Mr Mark for what you do I hope you have a wonderful weekend..
March 12, 2010 at 19:42
Hi Mark, it is very interesting on how the people change in the commentary area. There are a lot of new names every week and a lot of chatters leave. What happend to Hendrik
March 12, 2010 at 21:58
Hendrik is still around, he took some time off for a household project and some other personal reasons. You can send him a private message in the forums and it will email him a notification.
Yes, a lot of traders come and go over the months and years. More interesting are the thousands of PipHut readers and the ones who have been readers for 2 years now who have never said a word in the comments. I always think of them as the “silent majority”.
March 12, 2010 at 19:46
Hello all,
Had a great week and enjoyed reading all your posts on the sideline and doing my journal.
Lisa, Markus, and of course Mark, how are you guys doing? I enjoy reading your posts and believe me, I’m here everyday.
Mark my trading is improving daily and i owe it so much to you and i stumbled on your site by accident, and a very good one at that. Although it was in my process of educating myself on forex.
Back to the technicals, i think we have seen the end of our short-term runs and should be looking at riding the bulls now. Although, i believe it will be a short term run for a cool off from the shorts we’ve been enjoying for sometime now.
March 12, 2010 at 22:01
Yinka, the trading journal is all credit to you. My comments may have been the spark to get you started but you are the one has the discipline to wake up every day and keep it going. Congrats
March 12, 2010 at 21:53
i just lose many pip i have let my short since ysterday run and now i have -76 pip i am asking ifi let it run after weekend will it continue or will close a lone
thanks
March 12, 2010 at 21:55
Pierre, where do you have your stop loss at? It is a coin flip for a short-term trader to leave a trade open over the weekend. Who knows what news will come out in the next 2 days. No way to tell if it will open higher or lower.
March 13, 2010 at 00:12
hi mark
in fact i left trade open without sl. i just put target at 1.3666 (eur/usd)short opened at 1.3683. now the price is closed at 1.3767 so i think it will not begin monda by going up more than this. are you agree with me mr mark?
i interpreted a bad signal that why i made this error
March 13, 2010 at 03:02
Hi Pierre,
I myself is an amateur trader. My two cents here is that setting and limiting your losses (Stop Loss) to only a few % of your account is always the first thing you should do before any trade to ensure a long term trading profile. It is always nice to win huge pips but from what I see it after this half a year of trading, unless you are disciplined enough, huge profits could easily become huge loss. The only way to succeed in Forex would be to learn how to not hurt your account and lose everything in a trade. Trading without a Stop Loss could be a disaster.
March 13, 2010 at 12:52
yes you’r right me i am beginner and this is new info for me to lear thanks for it. some times i look to direction of pair i am saying that even if it go up it will be back soon or later that why i let it without sl. but yes like you say i can not win some without lose some other. THis is forex there is usuly risk
good day
March 12, 2010 at 22:01
Hi- just signed up to this site-and i like it!
What type of trader am i? 26 winning trades and one loss, translating to 1028 pips in 11 days trading, with barely an SL in sight.I tend to ride the roller coaster up and down–too much time on my hands watching charts! I won’t get rich but its scary fun!!
March 13, 2010 at 00:14
for me you are professional continue like this
March 13, 2010 at 11:38
HI PEOPLE!!Just a query to all of you fellow traders:Considering that there is no single technical indicator for the ‘best trade’to follow, i have been using RSI and STOCHASTIC on 2hr charts. It has yielded positive results but with some scary moments inbetween. How reliable are the FIB. charts and are they simply effective because of the herd mentality?
March 14, 2010 at 04:28
Mark, I have a question that maybe you can answer for me.. In reading around the net today. I have been reading the phrases “short squeeze” & “shakeout”. Does this mean the market is trying to rid itself of the bears so it can head up,, or something else.. I will continue to find the answer but I figure you can answer it to where I can understand..:)
Thank you..
Matthew
March 14, 2010 at 04:59
short squeeze is when a bunch of people are short but, when markets are thin or for whatever reason people start buying, the price starts to go up. This creates a cascade effect where the short’s stop losses get triggered (which in essence is a buy), some people do a cover and switch (and go long), while breakout traders may go long now that resistance is broken. You get a runaway effect where all those ingredients squeeze those holding the shorts and push the price up.
March 14, 2010 at 05:25
Cool, Thank you. I understand.:)
March 14, 2010 at 20:22
Hi Mark,
I’m one of those you call ‘silent majority’ but I’ve decided to break my silence.Really like what you are doing.My question-Does it make sense to take a trade in the opposite direction instead of using a SL e.g I take a sell @ 1.36820 and put a pending buy @ 1.37000 instead of a SL.if 1.37000 is reached I take some pips and wait for the decline