Yesterday Recap: Good morning or good evening PipHutters – wherever you might live on this globe! It is a funny thing all this great technology that allows a group of people from all across the world (even the South Pole) to meet together and work together every day. As always, PipHut is about you all, the community, so thanks for making PipHut what it is :). Ok, enough of that. Yesterday was a relatively pointless day for the EUR/USD pair. It seemed like we were going to get some action around 1.3680, about 10 hours ago and the pair has more or less just drifted ever since. I took a two shorts on the pair on some bearish candlesticks for a net break even.
Daily Outlook: Here we are finally at 1.3700 (after 3 days of waiting) and, unfortunately the price has drifted so far that the technical picture is not as short term bearish as it once was. The price broke through the hourly falling trend resistance yesterday (a bullish sign) but left the daily trend resistance intact (a bearish sign) which is the top blue trend line on the graph below. We have also had two consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows. Toss the bullish candlesticks we’ve had the past few weeks on the weekly charts and their is ample reason to be looking for longs. Which leads me to my strategy to close out the week: given the mixed signals as to the trend I will continue to look for short confirmation candles at 1.3700 and (more importantly) at the daily resistance of 1.3740. But I will also be on the lookout for long opportunities in a return to 1.3625 support.
Trading Idea: It is Friday and we do have USD news (check the forex calendar for more details) coming out at 13:30 GMT so conservative trades are my preferred route today. Primary trade is a short in the area of falling trend resistance around 1.3740, with targets at 1.3710, 1.3680 and 1.3645 OR a long in the vicinity of 1.3625 support with candlestick confirmation. Bull targets from there are 1.3650, 1.3680 and 1.3710. A more aggressive trade (not my cup of tea on Fridays) would be a short at 1.3700 with targets down to 1.3600.
Happy trading today PipHutters and thanks for being such a great community to work with!
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March 12, 2010 at 05:49
Hi Mark,
“A more aggressive trade (not my cup of tea on Fridays) would be a short at 1.3700 with targets down to 1.3600″
You mean the third setup?( After we get bear from 1.3740 and bull for 1.3625)
March 12, 2010 at 06:01
@Tuan – the setups don’t happen in any particular order, they are indications of levels of risk. The primary trade is always the most conservative.
March 12, 2010 at 06:04
Ok, Thanks Mark! ’cause 1.3700 now I think is not strength enough.
March 12, 2010 at 06:04
*sigh* – despite labeling it the most aggressive trade and saying that is “not my cup of tea on Fridays” the shooting star that just happened on the 1h, with the tip just touching 1.3700 is a solid sell signal and I opened a small position.
March 12, 2010 at 07:09
I’ve taken your advice (understanding that this is the riskier trade of course) and I’m also short in this @ 13700 Mark. I think the 00 level strengthens the probability.
March 12, 2010 at 09:00
Morning all
i shorted on that one as well, Candles lie alot lately.
March 12, 2010 at 15:41
Candles don’t lie. They describe sentiment and, when used correctly, they give us a sense of “probability”. They don’t promise anything. Forex is a game of probabilities, and we want to steer those probabilities to our advantage. We are always going to lose, or have a losing streak from time to time.
March 12, 2010 at 06:09
hey mark
what are your SL and TP on that small short position you opened.
tks
March 12, 2010 at 06:15
Hi DC, I don’t usually give out that info live as PipHut is about giving you the tools to learn forex, not just have me trade for you.
That being said my trading style isn’t complicated (just the opposite) and all the info you need to figure out where I put my SL and TPs is in the analysis above and in the articles on the left hand nav (support/resistance, money management, and the READ ME: How to Use PipHut’s forex signals) – there is no complex formula or tricky indicator ;)
March 12, 2010 at 06:13
Hi Mark thanks for the great week, I think am off to the beach, my pc will be shut till monday. Love you all.
March 12, 2010 at 06:34
A beach? Lucky. Have a good weekend.
March 12, 2010 at 06:49
Hi Mark, thanks for having me in our Piphutters community. Your support and analyses is truelly appreciated. Have a nice one.
March 12, 2010 at 07:12
start moving down with fast pace ..
March 12, 2010 at 07:13
ekk because of news???
March 12, 2010 at 07:13
Mark
You have built my confidence and trust in technical analysis above fundamentals.
Keep up the good work.
March 12, 2010 at 07:28
hi mark,
i’m new here but i know allready how good are your advices..
i think that despite the technical analysis the strike in greece that continue will help push down the euro.
thanks again and have a nice day
eric
March 12, 2010 at 07:57
Good morning you all! It’s friday, so be careful!
Mark, great site this is
March 12, 2010 at 08:17
Morning guys/girls
on my charts i see a nice closed bullish candle on the 1h
anybody in from 1,3696
March 12, 2010 at 08:29
holy .. see gpb/usd
March 12, 2010 at 08:33
Good morning piphutters
March 12, 2010 at 09:07
signal gpb/usd 30m under daily r1
March 12, 2010 at 09:09
Who’s got a good resistance level on Cable today ?
March 12, 2010 at 09:16
Hi paul i give you mine.
r1 1,5119
r2 major 1,5173
hope this helps
March 12, 2010 at 09:32
I’m intend to short at 1.5170 :) This is a major Res
March 12, 2010 at 10:12
did you take it?
March 12, 2010 at 09:18
Hi piphutters…
Do you think eur/usd will reach @ 1.3775 or 1.3800 today?
All my positions are waiting for falling star @^@
March 12, 2010 at 09:22
Do we need a candle confirmation to enter a short at 1.3740? Or just hop in?
March 12, 2010 at 09:26
Hey guys,
I’m just a beginner and I’m not really sure how candlesticks work. Where can I find more about them? Thanx
March 12, 2010 at 10:09
Look here..
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
March 12, 2010 at 10:10
and here…
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/forex-candlestick-guide/
March 12, 2010 at 09:28
Mark, would you mind posting a pic were i can see your long term trendline. Im unable to get it to intersect the 1.3740 area (today), mine is at 1.3690 area
March 12, 2010 at 10:28
never mind ;)
March 12, 2010 at 09:33
thats my problem 2 today my daily r2 is on 1,3730
March 12, 2010 at 09:53
Morning tuctuc how are you, seems the euro usd goes up and up!
March 12, 2010 at 10:08
Moring Graham B i’m fine thks .
yeah its going like a turbo bull.
March 12, 2010 at 09:46
There is a doji in the 15 mins Chart, is it ok to enter for short now at 1.3626? or should we wait more 15 mins for 1 hour confirmation?
March 12, 2010 at 09:48
i’m sorry, but my chart say the price now is at 1.3735. This is EurUsd right?
March 12, 2010 at 09:47
Hmmm, its moving up……
March 12, 2010 at 09:50
The Bears are dead, long live the Bulls
March 12, 2010 at 09:52
Or at least until I short, very soon….! I should add
March 12, 2010 at 09:56
Bunniiies!
March 12, 2010 at 10:01
should be some pretty strong resistance left from 17th jan, dont u think?
March 12, 2010 at 10:19
Morning Marcus, did you mean 17th Feb? If so I think you’re right (resistance @13780 to 13790), that’s also close to the next 00 figure@ 13800. Lets wait and see…..
March 12, 2010 at 10:32
Feb! yes sry.
Yes lets see, gonna need some confirmation on this.
March 12, 2010 at 10:03
The Bull push so high…
March 12, 2010 at 10:07
Ouch…!!!
March 12, 2010 at 10:10
i think it getting near a short target on eur and gpb.
March 12, 2010 at 10:14
I have set my order to kick in at 1.3740 to try and catch it on the way down, put my stop just above the next resistance level – 1.3800 and looking to collect some pips on the way down down down, trailing with my stop! Hope it drops like a rock!!!!
March 12, 2010 at 10:19
nice bro good money management is the key to not blow up your account
March 12, 2010 at 10:24
I have now moved my order up 10 pips to 1.3750, tp and sl accordingly, stop is hidden well behind next resistance now so hopefully its safe from a long reaching wick!!!!
March 12, 2010 at 10:10
what’s the next resistance?
March 12, 2010 at 10:11
2 Good news for EU Zone that’s why EURUSD push higher
March 12, 2010 at 10:25
Good morning Tucan, you’re absolutely right. The EU industrial production figures (YoY & MoM) were much better than expected so it looks like they may havecaused the move up.
March 12, 2010 at 10:35
Hi Neil! That why we better to wait my PO order at 1.3730 has been stop at sl. Maybe we could see the 1.3800, if It’s hold here we can add short.
PS: My name is Tuan ^^, nice to chat with you, Neil
March 12, 2010 at 10:52
Hi Tuan, sorry for the typo with your name and thank you for the reply. Good to chat to you too.
March 12, 2010 at 10:13
Ill be shorting ard 1.3780 -1.38 ish
March 12, 2010 at 10:16
jumped in at 1.3750 short.Probably to early
March 12, 2010 at 10:24
be aware shorter…look like a tipical short squeeze..i got stopped allready!!!!
March 12, 2010 at 10:26
UP UP all de way. 1.3797 lets see how it holds
March 12, 2010 at 10:26
eur is getting stronger… too bad!
March 12, 2010 at 10:26
did anyone see any news or something that could explain this move?
March 12, 2010 at 10:57
Good morning Marcus, Tuan spotted the probable reason earlier. The EU industrial production figures (YoY & MoM) were much better than expected so it looks like they may have caused the move up.
March 12, 2010 at 10:29
My SL is taking last breathing……
March 12, 2010 at 10:30
it broke the major falling trend resistance on th 4hr
March 12, 2010 at 10:34
Same here.
Bad news from US 3 hours from now…Argh!
March 12, 2010 at 10:31
I think its just 2 things. 1. Temporary relaxation of Greek and related Euro Problems.
2. From a purely chart view, it would seem that there has been increasing momentum to push higher that, has finally boiled over
Yestredays m ove lower was shallow and very checked and if you see the last few days, the bears just couldnt make it
March 12, 2010 at 10:36
almost @ 1.38 now…. :(
March 12, 2010 at 10:37
my SL finally dead…..
March 12, 2010 at 10:37
be ready to see easy 1,3810 today..sorry short and a shame for me too,i was short from 1,37 but stopped my pain at 1,3750.
good luck everybody
eric
March 12, 2010 at 10:38
and what u wanna say by that adam?
March 12, 2010 at 11:00
i think it might be in reply to my question to the couse of this eurusd move
March 12, 2010 at 10:39
crazy bull
March 12, 2010 at 10:41
Did anyone see the break of the rang I pucket $1066 after the break. this result in the break of my yesterday 200 EA
March 12, 2010 at 10:43
sweet!
March 12, 2010 at 11:13
??
March 12, 2010 at 10:43
i don’t really know why but i took a short on gbp/usd on 1,5167 .right under r2 my first ever on gbp
March 12, 2010 at 10:46
Unfortunatley for the usd it has taken a panning from all the four major pairs!!
March 12, 2010 at 10:57
3800 dhould hold it for today. Just no sure to go short from here.
March 12, 2010 at 11:24
I’m in short at 1.37827 my sl is 1.38450, that my last trade for this week. Nice to chat all you guys. Very happy to chat chit in piphut ^^
March 12, 2010 at 11:32
Have a great weekend Tuan!
March 12, 2010 at 11:34
You too, my friend, Neil
March 12, 2010 at 11:37
Thank you my friend.
March 12, 2010 at 11:38
lol, “chat chit”
have a good weekend
March 12, 2010 at 11:32
We have a nice doji at 11:00GMT M30 chart. Maybe the bull stop to take an weekend vacation ^^
March 12, 2010 at 11:42
The dark side i sence in this doji!
March 12, 2010 at 12:10
hi mark,
double doji, is it the right time to go short???
March 12, 2010 at 12:17
Who’s keeping their shorts open through the news ?
March 12, 2010 at 12:24
Hi Paul, it’s @13768