Archive For "April, 2010"

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices and the dollar remained down on Thursday after the Labor Department said 448,000 Americans filed initial claims for jobless benefits last week, down 11,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims also fell. Yields on 2-year notes , which move inversely to prices, rose 2 basis points to 1.05%. The euro rose to $1.3266, up from $1.3203 in late North American trade Wednesday, when it touched a one-year low. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped to 81.904, down from 82.019 before the data, compared to 82.293 late Tuesday. Treasurys and the dollar were under pressure earlier as a lack of more bad news about sovereign debt provided a little relief to markets, reducing the desire for the relative safety of the dollar and U.S. debt. The Treasury market still must contend with an auction of 7-year notes .

Italy’s well-received sale of government bonds on Thursday helps soothe worries over the debt in southern euro-zone countries, economists say.

Chinese banking stocks find buyers, but most Asia markets slip as fears over Europe’s credit crisis linger.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The European Union’s commissioner for economic affairs on Thursday said talks surrounding a joint E.U.-International Monetary Fund aid package for Greece were on track to be completed in coming days. Olli Rehn told reporters he couldn’t “provide … details today as we are about to complete the talks.”

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The cost of insuring Greek government debt against default fell in relatively calm trade on the credit-default-swaps market Thursday, Markit reported. The Greek five-year CDS spread narrowed by 35 basis points to 685 basis points, outperforming other peripheral markets. That means it would cost $685,000 a year to insure $10 million of Greek debt against default for five years. The spread had topped 900 at one point Wednesday following this week’s downgrade of Greek debt to junk status by a ratings agency. Portugal’s five-year CDS spread widened around 3 basis points to 330 after also seeing volatile action Wednesday in the wake of a downgrade. The Spanish CDS was steady at 185 basis points, showing little reaction to a Wednesday downgrade of Spain’s credit rating.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the 16-nation euro zone rose to 100.6 in April from a reading of 97.9 in March, shrugging off concerns surrounding the Greek debt crisis. Economists had forecast a more modest rise to 99.4. The commission on Thursday said its consumer sentiment indicator rose to -15 in April from -17. The industry sentiment indicator rose to -7 from -10, while the services indicator rose to 5 from 1. The retail trade indicator rose to -1 from -6, while the construction indicator was steady at -25.

The average British house price rises by a seasonally-adjusted 1% in April, aided by tight supplies of properties for sale, mortgage lender Nationwide says Thursday.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — M3 money supply in the 16-nation euro zone contracted by 0.1% in March compared to the same month last year, the European Central Bank reported Thursday. In February, M3 contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% March contraction. Loans to the private sector declined 0.2% compared to March 2009 after a 0.4% annual decline in February.

Recap: Good morning (evening for me) PipHutters!! Despite all the moves I only took one position off of the EURUSD yesterday – a short for a quick 50 pips which the market easily gave up on the Spain/Portugal news. Altogether it was a very volatile day for the pair, measuring over 150 pips between the days high and low but less than 20 pips between its open and close.

Driving bears to establish a new 12-month low was a credit downgrade of Portugal and Spain by the S & P, following Greece’s downgrade to junk status yesterday.

Daily Outlook: As with yesterday we are still in two bearish channels on the charts. The shorter term channel (orange lines below) is providing the immediate direction, though the big bounce yesterday came when the price touched the lower channel of the longer-term support (blue line below – it is daily support and a bit hidden on the 1h chart).

This pair might have a bit of a bounce but I am still very bearish and will only be looking for areas to sell.

Trading Idea: Primary area is top of bearish short-term channel (orange lines below), currently 1.3300-1.3315.  Short targets from 1.3300 are  1.3270, 1.3240, 1.3210 and 1.3180 (for 120 pips profit). Another aggressive trade would be a short on a sustained break of 1.3175 (sustained break on the 1h) as the pair is having diffculty holding on to much bullish territory.

1h view:


Here’s a daily view of what is going on, with a better view of the two bearish channels:

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Deciding once again that the economy remains too fragile for higher interest rates, a cautious Federal Reserve keeps increases on hold and repeats that conditions requiring low rates were likely to remain for an extended period.