Recap: Nearly picture perfect pips yesterday as the pair charged into yesterday’s signal’s resistance at 1.3060, kicked up a beautiful shooting star at 08:00 GMT on the 1h chart (check out the candlestick alert system if you missed it) to confirm the trade and then dropped like a rock right on cue. I entered at 1.3045 after the close of the shooting star. I kept my trade open the whole way down until a bullish hammer closed on the 1h at 17:00 GMT at 1.2798 – for 240+ pips profit per lot.
Discussions got a little heated on the boards yesterday for a few members and that is OK, but remember to always be respectful of fellow traders on PipHut. Everyone is welcome to post on PipHut as long as their posts are helpful to the community and constructive. Let me worry about spammers. Just sit back, relax and make some pips – we are all here for the same reason.
Daily Outlook: My fundamental analysis remains little changed from yesterday so read yesterday’s signal for that. One thing to add is this: another point of concern for investors eyeing the Greek conflict unfold are the riots in Greece against the austerity measures that are crucial to them receiving bailout money in the first place. So the German public doesn’t want to lend the money, and the Greek public doesn’t want to accept in on the decided terms. Yikes.
Technically we saw the forecasted drop off of resistance yesterday which leaves me squarely in the bear camp still. We do have a rising support trend line though (see bottom blue line on chart) which forms an ascending triangle combine with the resistance level of 1.3050 (see blue lines on chart below). The rising trend support of that ascending triangle could provide scalpers with some nice long opportunities, but I will look to sell on a break of that pattern.
Trading Idea: Primarily I will still look to short at the top of this ascending triangle pattern at 1.3060 with short targets at 1.3030, 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2940 and eventually 1.2875 for 185 pips profit. Secondary trade would be a short on a sustained break of the rising trend support (bottom blue line). An aggressive trade would be a long at the rising trend support in anticipation of it rising back up to 1.3060.
Good luck PipHutters, lots of good setups today!
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May 11, 2010 at 21:08
my trade that i place last week looks more and more realistic now with it’s tp sett at 2.400 maybe tommorrow which is a busy day for both the euro and usd will bring in a take profit trigger. these last two weeks has been a gold mine.
May 11, 2010 at 21:24
Hi MIcheal, are u still unable to register? Mark is on , chat him up. GL
May 11, 2010 at 23:43
yeah I’ve given up on registering. I’ll just be an unofficial member.anyway i heard your using alpari uk i want to change brokers hows alpari i know it’s a hassle to get approved but how withdrawal and hows their technical annalist page that’s the reason i wanna join
May 11, 2010 at 21:33
Second short hit at 1.2635 for 100+ pips. Judging from the emails it helped a lot of you that I posted the trade in the comments (it was the secondary trade in the analysis). Ascending triangles are very reliable technical signals – one of the most reliable actually.
May 11, 2010 at 21:35
Good stuff i follow both yesterday and today you are a good judge i will stick with it and learn more and follow in the meantime:)
May 11, 2010 at 21:36
Hi mArk, can pls give me the link to understanding theascending traingleanalysis?. tnx
May 11, 2010 at 21:56
I’ll put something together for you Kay, don’t have anything written out already. In the meantime take a look at this example:
http://www.fxribafree.com/images/ascending_triangle.gif
May 11, 2010 at 22:11
Thank u
May 11, 2010 at 21:40
Hi Mark. Do you think a bounce (May it be a small one) is still possible from where we are now? Or are we going below 1.2605 ? Tnx
May 11, 2010 at 21:53
Small bounces are always possible. Short-term price movements are random and can’t be predicted with long-term success, which is why I trade larger time frames. I’m bearish on the pair, have been for months now, but a short-term retracement might be in the cards.
Either way I would not recommend looking for longs, and instead would save your equity for a higher-probability short if a retracement does happen.
May 11, 2010 at 21:54
Thanks Mark. Well noted
May 11, 2010 at 22:47
Hi Mark, just successfully learnt how to apply fibb but the value is not showing just the fibb range. how do i activate the support, resistance value? tnx
May 11, 2010 at 22:51
Kay that depends on your trading platform/charting package. For MT4 if you right click on the fib and select “properties” you can display values. Otherwise ask your broker or whoever made your charting package.
May 11, 2010 at 23:32
in MT4, open properties and add $ after the %
ok?
May 11, 2010 at 21:52
Closed today’s short postions AUD/USD at .89441 for +45 pts. Closed USD/JPY at 92.717 for +13. Out and lookin.
May 11, 2010 at 21:56
Will be looking for Mark’s positions. Interesting site here.
May 12, 2010 at 01:17
Nice day.. Anyone pull out any pips…. I pulled out some nice pips from 740 area…
May 12, 2010 at 02:28
Breaking triangle down again? 1.2633
May 12, 2010 at 02:37
oh it broke to the upside
May 12, 2010 at 05:16
finally down
May 12, 2010 at 02:57
mark, what happened to todays forecast? are you prepared?
May 12, 2010 at 05:07
good morning all have a nice day
May 12, 2010 at 05:12
Is there any possible EUR/USD to go 1.24 level today?
May 12, 2010 at 05:15
I dont think so, around 1,2530 should be a turning point. My view only.
May 12, 2010 at 05:19
Hi all
I still waiting for 1.2470 to going long
May 12, 2010 at 05:22
Hi good morning all. Taavi I am with you, somewhere betwen 1.2530 an 1.2550 we may get a bounce up.
Although most expact a bounce up, it is not really necessarry and guaranteed that this bounce will come! It might as well decline further down. Lets see and GL
May 12, 2010 at 05:26
Yes, Johnny you are right, everybody are waiting for a bounce up, and if it takes place, it will be a darn fast upmove. Today maybe up to 1,2820, but these are just my stupid thoughts :D
May 12, 2010 at 05:18
We are in the 5th wave down. Should be finished around 1.2520 or a bit below.
May 12, 2010 at 05:19
around 1,2530 should be a turning point>>>>>Any particular reason?
May 12, 2010 at 05:20
yes, take a look at the weekly chart :D
May 12, 2010 at 05:24
i didn’t get anything in weekly chart about 1.2530 level…Can u explain me? plz…
May 12, 2010 at 05:27
Hint: draw a trendline :D
May 12, 2010 at 05:25
news after 35 mins
May 12, 2010 at 05:28
good morning folks ,has Marks posted his thoughts yet ,Johnny can i ask if its ok ,do u still think we are going short to 1.250 level
May 12, 2010 at 05:28
But I’ll just wait for Mark’s signals and then, together with my own analysis will see what’s possible.
Its of course always nice to get in short on a higher level! Around 1,28 would be nice to get in again.
The Euro will drop down a lot more within the weeks to come according to me (There’s no real solution to prevent this) I would not be surprised we are going down 500 or more pips within the next months to come!
Just my view
May 12, 2010 at 05:30
Johnny many thanks my friend
May 12, 2010 at 05:33
Guys, you know, we should pressurise Mark, he should make a Piphut chatroom :D that would just be excellent. Dont remember who of us first had that idea, but that just would be a nice thing :D
May 12, 2010 at 05:35
There is one, it is just not open to anyone but me :). Seriously I think I will open this though, the chat room for all the chit chat and this area for comments/questions about the signal itself.
By the way today’s signal:
http://piphut.com/2010/05/forex-signals-eurusd-trend-is-your-friend/
May 12, 2010 at 05:34
Hi Tom, best is to read Mark’s comment here little above. I’d asked him about a possible bounce and pls read for yourself. (Retracements are always possible)
Thats why its kinda risky in these level to place a trade now (You’ll have to give it some room to move, if you have to cash to bear the losses too. But on the otherside you should put a tight SL. Thats my way of looking at it)
So, best is to just wait for a good confirmation. If it really goes up (A bounce, which I expact somewhere in the 1.2530/1.2550 area) to 1,2750 – 1,2800 again then it would be ideal going in short there of course.
Once it should break below 1.2525 I think we can see lot more down and 1.24 could come insight. Just my view
May 12, 2010 at 14:56
EUR/USD slips again; BIS rumored to have lowered offers
Written by Jamie Coleman
May 12, 2010 at 14:42 GMT
Traders say the BIS lowered their offers to the 1.256/00 area this last time up, helping turn EUR/USD lower again. There is talk of a large 1.2665 bid in the market but stop-loss sell orders are perched below that level. More stops are clustered from 1.2640 down to 1.2620.