Recap: I did not take the initial 1.2350 short yesterday as I didn’t see a candlestick worth entering on, though I know many of you did and made good pips off of it. I eventually did take a short at 1.2360 as two bearish dojis (neither ideal, but together were a good indicator of reversal) formed on the 4h GMT charts at 16:00 and 20:00. For those interested my initial stop was 50 pips up at 1.2410 – above the top of the dojis and a large round number. Initial target at 1.2310 was hit but I moved the SL to breakeven because… (keep reading below)
Daily Outlook: Bulls managed to push the pair up 180+ pips yesterday on a surge of risk appetite with most analysts pointing to China’s confirmation that they were not pulling out of Eurozone investments. On top of that the 180 pip push completed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily charts, which adds to the growing body of evidence that a bullish correction is coming. That evidence includes: the bullish engulfing candlestick mentioned above, the gravestone doji from Tuesday, the potential double-bottom now formed at 1.2150.
It is a Friday and as usual I will take the day off, but if I were in the markets today I would be looking primarily for a long on a bounce off of rising trend support (now at 1.2260) or at 1.2215 support.
Trading Idea: I don’t trade on Fridays. But if I did, my primary trade would be a long with confirmation in the 1.2260-1.2220 zone with long targets at 1.2290, 1.2320, 1.2350, 1.2380 and 1.2430 for 170+ pips profit. That trade might need a little breathing room as bears are likely to fight it. If we do see a sustained break below 1.2150 on the 1h charts or above then that is a very bearish signal and we could be looking at 1.2000 tomorrow. An aggressive trade is a sustained break on the bullish break of the falling trend resistance (the blue line my circled dojis are barely touching)
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May 28, 2010 at 17:14
@zubair123, can u suggest a good book for learning FX.
May 28, 2010 at 17:49
Hi Fahad, you will find helpful materials on http://www.babypip.com. go to the school menu. it has resources for both starters and pro.
May 28, 2010 at 17:42
Trying a small long at 1.2301 stop 1.2278 Target 1.2342
May 28, 2010 at 17:53
Humorous look at the Eurozone: “World Collapse Explained in 3 minutes”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0a_FA_J6Sw
Enjoy and have a great weekend everyone. I’ll see you Tuesday (no signal Monday because of US holidays)
May 28, 2010 at 17:57
Thanks Mark and have a good long weekend too.
See you Tuesday
May 28, 2010 at 18:38
Hey Johny whats up
May 28, 2010 at 18:05
See you then, you are really a blessing to us all in this forex community. Have a great weekend xtra. Cheers
May 28, 2010 at 18:15
nice week end
May 28, 2010 at 18:28
I went short at 2400 and it was a good call. 3 lots in 30 pips difference.
May 28, 2010 at 18:44
bullish clouds are appearing on my MT4. but it will go Bullish on MOnday i think :-)
May 28, 2010 at 18:51
Hi again Zubair. Good weekend and see you next week.
Btw I just saw on news there was a terrible attack in Lahore?
May 28, 2010 at 18:52
Fake News.
May 28, 2010 at 18:57
I dont know if we have to still think short term/daily bullish early next week Zubair?
It may go towards 1,20 sooner then we think.
(Also there are talks about another, (Down?) gap again when markets will open sunday night?
Well, lets see it all on Monday.
Take care my friend.
May 28, 2010 at 19:29
Ok Johny, but i think it will go up again.
Takr care.
May 28, 2010 at 20:40
Hi, i am new guy on scene of forex trading, my question is what is a really good trading platform to use, mine (will not name) just got “trojan” bug. Thks.
May 29, 2010 at 05:19
The number of U.S. bank closures continued to climb late Friday as regulators shut down three banks in Florida, one in California and another in Nevada. ( hi anybody can analysis this news?)
May 29, 2010 at 11:02
@johny, hendrik and zubair. Will you guys take us through monday’s Europian session?
May 29, 2010 at 12:45
good call gipa .
May 29, 2010 at 12:47
Guy’s , whats the best broker out there ?????????
May 29, 2010 at 17:12
@FIGS There are so many. Why dont you ask Mark on Tuesday which one he recommands? He surely must have a good view on Brokers? I can tell you mine is/are good. But then again someone else may have a problem with the one(s) I use? Its so different. And to be honest, they are all just “Criminals” according to me :)
May 29, 2010 at 17:07
@GIPA Hi Gipa. Of course I will try to post my view on the market coming Monday. But I hope other guys and my friends in here will also put their comments with their outlook as well in here as early as they can Sunday eve/Monday morning!!!
This is what Piphut is all about according to me? That we try to furnish each other with information and our view on the FX market. (Avoiding false information because no one is helped by that!)
Now that Mark is having a free day off on Monday and informed us he wont be able passing his daily report we’re on our own. So lets get together and see if we can do a day without our Master? :) In fact its a good test :)
My present view is that, although the Euro has climbed up a bit (1.2275 at time of writing, Saturday 29th) I feel it will drop. There are more reasons, but the Korean issue and mostly the Fitch on Spain Friday last will take away the intraday bullishness on the pair I think? We were already in a baerish downtrend for a long time.
Anyway, lets see , its just my view.
Hope to see you on Monday. And hope some others will also pass their views in here, may they be wrong or rigt!!!
Good weekend
May 29, 2010 at 21:18
I’m posting my signals for Monday as Mark will not be available on Mnday due to the US holiday.
As we saw the stocks situation on Friday, US Stocks tumbled rather than Europian stocks so we can see the bullish for EURUSD first. But this is the fundamental side. Lets talk about some Technical side.
At the technical side we are having a very strong resistance @1.2382. I will exit my long position at that point and will reverse my trade after a strong reversal candle.
Also we will a Head-and-Shoulder pattern second shoulder at that point, Lets put some more oil to this trade, we are also having our 61.8% retracement @1.2382 and this point is also the previous resistance(see 1H chart).
By the definition of the fibonacci extension 61.8% retracement leads us to to target 121.4% fibonacci extension. So our 121.4% extension is @1.2155 which is also out double bottom area which is telling us that this is our more physological target for +228 pips target.
I recomend all the piphuters to use Momentum and Speed of the price and Market in this trade that is 8SMA/5EMA and 21EMA/55EMA to enter at better positions.
I wish you all the Best.
Have a good Monday.
(If analysis fails then i will not be responsible for any loss)
May 29, 2010 at 21:26
Before Entering a trade please see a reversal candle pattern like doji, spinning top, or Shooting star.
May 29, 2010 at 21:59
I am strongly bullish on EURUSD for market opening… it will shoot-up by the looks of all the institutional buys sitting on it! I putting a Buy order for a 60 pips profit and 10 pips SL at current price.. and done the opposite with the USDCHF
May 30, 2010 at 02:17
we are below daily pivot 12305,we need to break 12325/30 area to even think about longs 1 hour bullish candle above dpivot and break above 12330 may see the way to 12450 but my money will be short break below 12250 and a test of the lows at 12145.the big but is the gap on open.so stay out until we get a clear view which way the banks want to take us sometimes the best trade is no trade
May 30, 2010 at 04:05
Zubair and Johnny..very professional analysis. Keep it up!
May 30, 2010 at 09:18
Hi Guys,
Spain’s credit rating downgrade has thrown a spanner in the works for those with a bullish outlook like myself.
Double bottom may get tested soon as the downward trend has not been broken.
I mainly look at the big picture so it isn’t much use if you are trading the short term movements.
May 30, 2010 at 17:55
I am nervous about Monday, anything can happen, that is the true random nature of the forex monster. I see the forex line as a Anaconda, the largest snake on earth. And I see how he is testing the support level with his splitted tongue,{double bottom on the 15 min} If he finds it too strong he will slither back, upwards. If he decided to charge through this barrier, it will be fast and furious. The Americans are not there to protect us, and I think the snake knows this, he will take his chances, He might however retrace a bit from where he lies now, just to have some distance to gather some momentum for his vicious attack. Only a picture in my mind, no serious forecast.
May 30, 2010 at 19:28
Sent by my pocketpc:
Hey Gipa. Just react to your comment here above.
Your posting is like telling a scary tale to a small kid. I really had to laugh by reading it :)
C’mon my friend there’s nothing spooky about.
anyway I still stick to my view in my earlier posting.
Of course there are problems in the Eurozone, but every negative side has a positive side too. The drop in the Euro will give a boost to the exports in the Eurozone countries (Which they needed badly!).
Leading European Companies are receiving large orders again from around the world, of which on many of these same projects they were turned down before because of the (to) high priced Euro!
I dont think the US is really that happy with the Buck’s appreciation at the moment?
Dont worry to much, One thing is for sure: The market goes its own (Sometimes mysterious :)) way and not even the best future-teller can tell us which way that will be!
Take care and good luck for the new week.
May 30, 2010 at 19:45
Hey Johny, how are you? ?
May 30, 2010 at 20:31
Hi there my friend. I am just keeping fine. How are you?
May 30, 2010 at 21:06
i’m also fine
May 30, 2010 at 21:49
hello everyone.
I hope you all had a great weekend!
According to all the analysis I have read, there is no telling where this eu will go :D
We will see.
Thanks to Johnny, cfdguru, Mike, Garry and Zubair for your thoughts/analysis. I’d give mine if I knew.. but I am still learning.
May 30, 2010 at 22:14
@DANO. Hi there Greg, hope your fine?
Since the US is not coming out because of Memorial Day today I think we’ll see a thin Monday market but could be some volatility?
Picked this from the News just a while ago:
“Three American cities on the brink of broke”
Several downtrodden cities are on the verge of defaulting on their debt, putting financially encumbered states and taxpayers on the hook to pick up the tab. The National League of Cities says municipal governments will probably come up $56 billion to $83 billion short between now and 2012. That’s the tab for decades of binge spending; municipal defaults could be our collective hangover.
Seems to me the “Recovery” of the US is still far off.
Now its the Cities, next are the States?
I am off to bed and see it all tomorrow.
Good luck and take care
May 30, 2010 at 22:46
@johhny
Hello my friend. Yes, doing well. Hoping to get some action in today. I’m in usa but my broker is forex.com in UK so I am trading.
Thanks for that news! I hope you’re doing well also!
Sleep well. Take care and see you tomorrow!
May 30, 2010 at 22:47
oops typo..
@johnny
Hello my friend. Yes, doing well. Hoping to get some action in today. I’m in usa but my broker is forex.com in UK so I am trading.
Thanks for that news! I hope you’re doing well also!
Sleep well. Take care and see you tomorrow!
May 31, 2010 at 10:18
@Dano,
I’m new to FOREX but I have experience in other markets so I don’t know if my observations are worth much here.
I have a longer term outlook on things but I hope to learn something about short term trading and currencies here.
A very good website and Mark seems to have established a winning formula.