Recap: I did not take the initial 1.2350 short yesterday as I didn’t see a candlestick worth entering on, though I know many of you did and made good pips off of it. I eventually did take a short at 1.2360 as two bearish dojis (neither ideal, but together were a good indicator of reversal) formed on the 4h GMT charts at 16:00 and 20:00. For those interested my initial stop was 50 pips up at 1.2410 – above the top of the dojis and a large round number. Initial target at 1.2310 was hit but I moved the SL to breakeven because… (keep reading below)
Daily Outlook: Bulls managed to push the pair up 180+ pips yesterday on a surge of risk appetite with most analysts pointing to China’s confirmation that they were not pulling out of Eurozone investments. On top of that the 180 pip push completed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily charts, which adds to the growing body of evidence that a bullish correction is coming. That evidence includes: the bullish engulfing candlestick mentioned above, the gravestone doji from Tuesday, the potential double-bottom now formed at 1.2150.
It is a Friday and as usual I will take the day off, but if I were in the markets today I would be looking primarily for a long on a bounce off of rising trend support (now at 1.2260) or at 1.2215 support.
Trading Idea: I don’t trade on Fridays. But if I did, my primary trade would be a long with confirmation in the 1.2260-1.2220 zone with long targets at 1.2290, 1.2320, 1.2350, 1.2380 and 1.2430 for 170+ pips profit. That trade might need a little breathing room as bears are likely to fight it. If we do see a sustained break below 1.2150 on the 1h charts or above then that is a very bearish signal and we could be looking at 1.2000 tomorrow. An aggressive trade is a sustained break on the bullish break of the falling trend resistance (the blue line my circled dojis are barely touching)
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May 28, 2010 at 11:19
@tuan
Goodcall with the chart and all! keep it up
i took shorts on eu and gu and its working out fine for now .
cheers
May 28, 2010 at 11:20
Cheers up, my friend.:)
May 28, 2010 at 11:19
I have moved SL to BE, bullish very strong so better stay safe here :)
May 28, 2010 at 11:22
Tuan . What platform do you use to allow multiply take profits ?
May 28, 2010 at 11:34
I shorted 2 times.
May 28, 2010 at 11:59
Anyone else got a gap between 1.2390 and 1.2410 a minute ago?
May 28, 2010 at 12:22
nope i do not see a gap in my charts
May 28, 2010 at 12:01
Hanging man on 1H
May 28, 2010 at 12:20
SS HM H1 below the res line so good change to go short :)
May 28, 2010 at 12:21
Done that already @ 1.2411, how lovely
May 28, 2010 at 12:22
Thanks Mike and Tuan…you both got it right..!
May 28, 2010 at 12:25
Don’t mind, Arunmatt. Sharing is the true spirit of Piphut ;).
May 28, 2010 at 12:24
Whats ur TP mike?
May 28, 2010 at 12:31
Hi, i shorted at 1.2410 and close at 1.2389 got +21 pips, but out early so cant make a big one
May 28, 2010 at 12:31
Hi all,
I am waiting at 1.2220-1.2260 zone to go LONg. Current price is going down.. Will it further go down? Tq.
May 28, 2010 at 12:32
Tuan, do you feel it will cross our daily pivot today?
May 28, 2010 at 12:36
TP1 hit, One closed. Take trailing stop 20pips and let other one free to 1.231
May 28, 2010 at 12:39
hope everyone here is banking some pips, very nice move and a clear signal for a friday!
May 28, 2010 at 12:39
arunmatt I’ll set a trailing stop once in the area of rising support line around 1.2300 now, if broken I’ll head for Marks second long entry recomendation (1.2220)
May 28, 2010 at 12:40
Of course we need to get below 1.2350 first
May 28, 2010 at 12:50
Doesn’t seem to want to drop below 1.2350
May 28, 2010 at 13:09
It hasn’t seen me yet. I’ve set my SL to 1.2375
May 28, 2010 at 13:15
I was trying to say that It hasn’t seen me angry, yet I’m out already
May 28, 2010 at 12:44
@MIKE @ANDI @PEGO
Sorry for late reaction, was out for a little while.
Thanks for replying to my question about the holiday Monday. (So might be little quite begin of the new week)
GL
May 28, 2010 at 12:47
Thanks Mike..and welcome back Johnny..we missed you here!
May 28, 2010 at 12:50
i closed all shorts
May 28, 2010 at 12:52
Hi tuan . What broker platform allows trailing stops ?
May 28, 2010 at 12:59
Hi Piphutters,
You all are doing really great.
And I hope the signals are much accurate & Thanks for all your signals.
May 28, 2010 at 13:07
@Mark “my primary trade would be a long with confirmation in the 1.2260-1.2220 zone”
Are you still hopeful that we can see 1.2220-60 today?
May 28, 2010 at 13:35
Not anymore.
May 28, 2010 at 13:37
But is the bounce off the rising trendline still possible? Or are you completely bearish ;) Thanks in advance Mark
May 28, 2010 at 13:29
Hi again,
Will US news will push down price until long zone? I’m still hope.. :)
May 28, 2010 at 13:35
Is Marks signal still valid or had it been called for this morning 6 GMT ??
May 28, 2010 at 13:40
@TUAN. I think we will see the rebound from just below 1.2300 – Lets see ?
(I am only partly involved today because of other business taking care of, but have a short running still with TP 2290 – FYI only)
GL
May 28, 2010 at 13:54
Yes, I think 1.2290/3000 is a turning point. Seem hard to see 1.2260 1.2220.
May 28, 2010 at 13:45
@PIPHUT. Hi again Mark, trust you’ve a good rest?
Haven’t red all postings yet as being busy with other things and just peek in here every now and then.
Q: Will you bring out a signal for Monday? (Since you’re having a holiday then)
Thanks
May 28, 2010 at 13:47
@piphut please can u help me on how to determine whether we have a trend or a range
May 28, 2010 at 13:52
@Mike – it is still possible. I’d look for confirmation before entering
@upi1 – we could still see a bounce off of the rising trend support, this is the trade @Mike is tracking
@Johnny – Great rest. No signal on monday!
@brotherkayode – medium- and long-term downtrend, short-term it is more mixed.
May 28, 2010 at 14:08
@piphut Thank u Mark, we are also on public holiday here in Nigeria because of our democracy day. Thanks again for your response to my question BUT how do u realy ascertain that we are on a TREND or a RANGE? Thank you
May 28, 2010 at 14:46
There’s a host of indicators that try and answer that for you, but I just use my experience.
May 28, 2010 at 15:24
Thank you sir, experience i know is never quzntifiable in terms of money but can u give me some clue to deciding if it is either a trend or a range. I just discovered that trend trading is better and somehow easier to predict. Range trading is risk loaded. pls any hint and idea will be gretaly appreciated.
May 28, 2010 at 15:29
Detecting a trend is not hard if you clear your mind of emotion and look at what the charts are showing you. The easiest way I can explain it is this:
1) Look at the daily chart. Does the price go from the top-left to bottom left of your screen? If yes then we are in a long-term DOWNTREND. Does it go from bottom-left to top-right? If yes then we are in a long-term UPTREND.
2) Look at 4h chart. Does the price go from the top-left to bottom left of your screen? If yes then we are in a medium-term DOWNTREND. Does it go from bottom-left to top-right? If yes then we are in a medium-term UPTREND.
3) Look at 1h chart. Does the price go from the top-left to bottom left of your screen? If yes then we are in a short-term DOWNTREND. Does it go from bottom-left to top-right? If yes then we are in a short-term UPTREND.
If the price ever ends about where it started then the trend is mixed, meaning we are potentially in a range. The more times price bounces between support and resistance in a range the stronger that range is.
http://piphut.com/2010/05/how-to-detect-a-trend-or-range/
May 28, 2010 at 15:37
Nice trick
May 28, 2010 at 13:58
I’m out for today, nice pips already. Another great week with Piphut, how I love all you guys. Hugs and Kiss from Vietnam. See you guys, next Monday ;)
May 28, 2010 at 14:02
Goodbye Tuan, take care and enjoy your weekend. See you next tuesday?
May 28, 2010 at 14:11
Good for you, have a bless and relaxed weekend
May 28, 2010 at 14:05
See you Tuan great work today!
May 28, 2010 at 14:14
@piphut my sign in name is too long, i prefer having a shorter anme, how do i update/edit it?
May 28, 2010 at 14:48
Submit a support ticket under “Contact/Support”, top menu, including what your current username is and what username you would like to change it to (has to be at least 4 characters)
May 28, 2010 at 15:13
Thank you, I will do that right away.
May 28, 2010 at 14:15
I just went long. But do as you please.
May 28, 2010 at 14:27
Why long Johnny? the trend are all barish for now
May 28, 2010 at 14:48
@Brotherkayode (Yes, you should shorten your name :) )
Sorry for late reply.
I’ve to admit, its Friday and I’ve been kinda busy with other things today, so to be frank haven’t paid real good attention today. (Didnt follow that close. Stupid, you may say, to trade then. Yes, you may be right)
But reason why is that I think a Hammer is showing on M30 (in a downward trend). I maybe mistaken here and correct me if you disagree, but knowing this baby seems “Loaded” to me (Bullish enough to jump) and with the sign given I went long just before.
I dont much think we will be going below 2325 ?
But, I maybe totally wrong and thats why its better we’ll follow Mark or otherwise just our own minds. And so I did.
GL
May 28, 2010 at 14:58
Thank u my friend, It was the update that Mark did some weeks back that led to it, my usual name is Kay while the it is @brotherkayode. I also just scalped at short with a 30pip target using 1 lot howevr i took profit at 27pip. For now, I am watching. no mor trade till next week. I think it is safer to follow the Master’s style
May 28, 2010 at 14:43
Hi Johny, How are you
May 28, 2010 at 14:59
Hello Zubair. How are you?
May 28, 2010 at 15:00
i’m fine. You tell??
May 28, 2010 at 15:06
I’m fine my friend. Its getting a bit mixed, lets see ?
May 28, 2010 at 15:08
Yes it is mixed. Thats why i was out today.
May 28, 2010 at 15:10
Lucky man :)
May 28, 2010 at 15:17
:) Johny i’m learning more things. I want me to become independant in FX. Today i learn’t a lot of things regarding FX. And these things are working amazingly correct.
May 28, 2010 at 14:36
Pivot: 1.2325
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.2325 with targets @ 1.248 & 1.2525 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2325 look for further downside with 1.2275 & 1.2202 as targets.
Comment: the pair has rebounded on its bullish channel lower boundary and is challenging its resistance.
May 28, 2010 at 14:46
US stocks are tumbling. EURUSD might go up.
May 28, 2010 at 14:48
I think from 1.2303 EURUSD will head up again.
What do you think mark??
May 28, 2010 at 14:49
If US stocks continue to tumble look for the EURUSD to go down due to risk aversion, @zubair123
May 28, 2010 at 14:52
OK Mark. thanks for the support
May 28, 2010 at 14:57
hi,
All i am joining in the week end but will meet in next week
till than HAVE A NICE WEEKEND
Kkay
india
May 28, 2010 at 15:02
just to learn… shooting stars at 1H at 19:00 and 11:00 and hammer at 0500 GMT ??
May 28, 2010 at 15:07
now im waiting for a strong signal to go long on EURUSD. Maybe after touching that lower bollinger band @1.2265?? who knows
May 28, 2010 at 15:15
me 2 :)
May 28, 2010 at 15:21
Seems Korea is blocking things again?
May 28, 2010 at 15:23
DOW is tumbling very fast. And Stoxx50 is surging, that means we will see BULLS very soon.
May 28, 2010 at 15:24
Lets hope Zubair :) Anyway if it pulls below 2270 I think we may forget it?
May 28, 2010 at 15:30
No not at all. But i think it will be more strong place to go long. eh?
May 28, 2010 at 15:37
Is that a good Doji on M30 Zubair?
May 28, 2010 at 15:38
I dont consider M30. I will confirm it after 1H candle pattern
May 28, 2010 at 15:39
Ok my friend.
May 28, 2010 at 15:43
Bullies came to say hello :) Also RSI building up a bit. Lets see
May 28, 2010 at 15:45
hmm lets see :)
May 28, 2010 at 15:46
Maybe good Doji afterall :)
May 28, 2010 at 15:39
@piphut, thanks a million sir, this is one of the most helpfll information I just got on understanding a trend. Thank you once again. More greeese to your elbow.
May 28, 2010 at 16:26
Hi all,
It seems trend is going up in H4 on MACD.
May 28, 2010 at 16:40
Fitch downgrades Spain to AA+ from AAA
May 28, 2010 at 16:43
guess that explains the sudden drop…I closed my long about 30 secs b4 it happenned…more by luck than judgement mind
May 28, 2010 at 16:52
where’s the best place to keep a eye an news items?
May 28, 2010 at 16:41
ouch?
May 28, 2010 at 16:47
lol… whats goin on guys…?
May 28, 2010 at 16:47
sell sell
May 28, 2010 at 16:48
so will it be bullish again or another downtrend?
May 28, 2010 at 16:49
look spain fitch
May 28, 2010 at 16:53
hopefully this will retrace some back up. that just hurt me.. sigh.. bad timing on that news release…
May 28, 2010 at 16:53
@PIPHUT. Mark some advise would be welcome now after the Spain Fitch? what s your present view please?
May 28, 2010 at 17:07
From my perspective it is irrelevant. Look at it technically. Our rising trend support is still intact. Above that I am short-term bullish. A sustained break and I am short-term bearish with the longer-term trend being bearish. I will trade accordingly.
May 28, 2010 at 17:12
At the same time though this does weaken the short-term bullish sentiment – which was already weak in the face of the 3000 pip drop we’ve had since December.
May 28, 2010 at 17:23
Thanks Mark.
May 28, 2010 at 16:54
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded Spain’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to AA+ from AAA. “The downgrade reflects Fitch’s assessment that the process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium-term,” said Brian Coulton, the head of EMEA sovereign ratings, in a statement. “Despite government debt and associated interest costs remaining within the AAA range, Fitch anticipates that the economic adjustment process will be more difficult and prolonged than for other economies with AAA rated sovereign governments, which is why the agency has downgraded Spain’s rating to AA+,” Coulton added. The outlook on Spain’s ratings is stable.
May 28, 2010 at 16:59
Right – but we havent seen that much of a sell off from this news – Fitch are not considered to be the main ratings guys – Most large banks and sovs look at Moodys and S&P. Once they start to downgrade i feel we will see much more of a slump in the EUR –
(Just from my experience)
May 28, 2010 at 17:04
16:40 EUR/JPY: Fitch Downgrades Spain To AA+; Outlook Stable NEW YORK, May 28, 20101(IFR) Fitch Downgrade Spain to AA+ with a stable outlook. This was priced by markets but reality is different. It opens up question about other sovereigns. Risk off. Robert.fullem@thomsonreuters.com
May 28, 2010 at 17:05
Key Point – it was priced in they say!
May 28, 2010 at 17:05
Looking back at recent ratings downgrades, Fitch is simply playing catch up to S&P here…On April 27 S&P cut Portugal’s rating, which sent EUR/USD lower from about 1.3400 to around 1.3150. On April 28, S&P cuts Spain’s rating, and EUR/USD fell to about 1.3120, but then recovered for the next 3 days to around 1.3350, before finally collapsing below 1.3000 at the start of May. So we would reasonably expect a potentially more positive EUR reaction on this announcement and will stay with a view toward EUR recovery while the 1.2150 holds.