Recap: Welcome to a new week PipHutters! I hope everyone had as pip-filled a time as I did last week. As promised I did not trade on Friday but I don’t think it would have mattered anyway as the pair did not do a whole lot. A new recent high was formed at 1.2672 but the pair was quickly sold back down to the 1.2470 area and has since risen to 1.2520 where it is now.
Quick note on the website: I did some server upgrades this weekend so if anything is acting differently please let me know by submitting a help ticket. Also I’ve added various time periods to my charts so you can clearly see what timezone my charts are in (I get a lot of questions on that).
Daily Outlook: The rising trend (bottom blue line on chart) is still being respected – a bullish sign – as we just had double bullish candlesticks on the 1h charts: an inverted hammer at the 0:00 GMT hour and a hammer at the 1:00 GMT hour. See the candlestick alerts here for more details.
Technically the pair appears to be forming a lumpy head and shoulders reversal pattern in this short-term uptrend. The neckline of this formation is 1.2450 and a sustained break below this opens up 1.2400 and 1.2350 in the short-term. Meanwhile on the top-side a sustained break of 1.2630 could open up 1.2680 and 1.2750.
Fundamentally we have very, very little news tomorrow save for the USD existing home sales report at 15:00 GMT. See full forex calendar here for the details. But, with all the talk of Greece and the Eurozone we could see another country drive up the USD and continue the EUR/USD downtrend: North Korea. That’s right, South Korea completed its investigation last week of their sunken naval vessel and concluded it was a North Korean torpedo that sunk it. They even went so far as to release a quote saying that North Korea was going to “pay the price”. As the war of words heats up we could see a flight to safety in the USD.
Trading Idea: My primary trade is to sell a sustained break below the 1.2440 (the neckline) with targets at 1.2410, 1.2385, 1.2355 and 1.2315 for 125 pips profit. A much more aggressive trade would be a long on a sustained break above 1.2620 (on the 4h) or 1.2630 (on the 1h) targeting up to 1.2750 for 130 pips. I would much prefer the short opportunity here as the long-term trend is still very bearish, and looking for opportunities to short in general is a decent strategy here.
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May 24, 2010 at 18:55
the FMI ask bce to be more clear!
May 24, 2010 at 19:09
@Zubair. Are you still in here?
May 24, 2010 at 19:11
Johny where have you been?? i was waiting for you since morning.
May 24, 2010 at 19:23
We have a holiday in Europe today my friend. I was away from home meeting some friends of mine, just came home.
How are you doing, I see we are haeding down (As per Mark’s signals)?
I am not trading today since I have not been following the market.
Will see tomorrow.
Take care and GL Zubair.
PS. May be we will see another retracement later on (tomorrow?), but fist it needs to go down a bit more (As per Marks signals)! Today it was kinda quiet because many traders/bankers did not show up. Tomorrow will be different. Just my view.
May 24, 2010 at 19:26
Yes Johny I agree. Today was a very slow day. HUH well you enjoy your holiday :)
May 24, 2010 at 19:31
Thanks Zubair. I may be wrong but I think around the levels 2330 (Maybe little higher/lower) we could see another bounce! But think thats for later. See you tomorrow, inshallah
May 24, 2010 at 19:35
:) Johny you are so calm. Well my friend sleep well. We will see some big moves tomorrow InshAllah. tc Gudnite :)
May 24, 2010 at 19:20
Markets remain calm, headed toward the last trading hours of Monday. Wall Street is mixed as the Dow Jones falls 0.45% and the Nasdaq gains 0.42%. The Dollar has been practically flat in the last hours across the board.
May 24, 2010 at 19:24
is there any resistance at 12385 12392
May 24, 2010 at 19:26
2399 an 2430 Sahara, how are you doing?
May 24, 2010 at 19:30
Johnny, May I ask how do You recognize resistance/support lines ??
May 24, 2010 at 19:31
I get them from my Broker Upi.
May 24, 2010 at 19:34
Ah ok.. ;)
May 24, 2010 at 19:31
Johny where do you live in Europe. I want to go the Europe for a trip. I love Europe. Especially England because Barclays Premier League Matches occurs there :))
May 24, 2010 at 19:48
Zubaur, I cannot reach you by PM. Sent me a PM ok?
May 24, 2010 at 19:53
Ok
May 24, 2010 at 19:27
ah nice my friend like all the day!
May 24, 2010 at 19:34
Rest. levels correction: 2395 & 2426 as of now Sahara.
May 24, 2010 at 19:33
this week end i learn all pipHut i understand a nice things sometimes i dont understad all than i translate but web translatin is nt good i print all in english i ll work this week i hav time i will see!
May 24, 2010 at 19:43
@piphut Hey Mark will you be leaving yours open after NY Close?
May 24, 2010 at 19:44
Yep
May 24, 2010 at 19:48
Gotta admit that I bailed out at 1,2350.. enough pips, but now I jumped short again from 1,2400.. maybe a bit too early according to Your signal.. but I think the break of 1,2400 is confirmed..
Is it right that “confirmation” is a new candlestick that closes and open below a defined level in lets say 30m frame ??
May 24, 2010 at 19:50
TY
May 24, 2010 at 19:57
Hi Mark. You probably havent heard of them (Assuming you’re to young?) but in the 50′s / 60′s they had this singing group called The Platters (Very nice music back then), they had a song called “You’ve got that Magic Touch”
Must be written for you I guess??? (As you’re doing it again it seems???)
Good day ahead and hope to see you tomorrow (And looking forward to that rolling out of the Prem.Serv.?)
May 24, 2010 at 20:01
and “Magic Man” by Heart
May 24, 2010 at 19:45
Have you seen any candel on daily and 4H?
May 24, 2010 at 20:17
Support here 2369, next is 2338. Lets see
May 24, 2010 at 20:19
ok johnny im in the train look at EURO YEN !!!!
May 24, 2010 at 20:29
Careful Sahara. These Japanese trains can go very fast (Also other direction!) GL
May 24, 2010 at 20:30
Make or break, think if 1 hr closes below 1.2350 will go to 1.2320
May 24, 2010 at 20:30
PLEASE did you use RSI and on wich time ?
May 24, 2010 at 20:31
wish GBP/USd would laydown too
May 24, 2010 at 20:36
me too cadtek, been waiting all morning for that! and there it goes.. ? :) 1.4419
May 24, 2010 at 20:39
I am looking to get 1.4370 on GBP, hoping the EUR close under 1.2350
May 24, 2010 at 21:08
the gpbusd is finally dropping! let’s hope the bears are furious by now.. :D
May 24, 2010 at 20:31
johnny i trade only euro usd
May 24, 2010 at 20:34
looks like we hit 1.2350 yay. what’s next support? or.. will we see a retrace at this point?
May 24, 2010 at 20:34
evening all…just looking in and at market for 1st time today…doesnt look like much happening..am I right in think its bumping along the support…can’t really see a trade yet…any thoughts anyone?
May 24, 2010 at 20:37
good evening squidge. It just hit the target mentioned by piphut about 5 minutes ago.
May 24, 2010 at 20:41
ah yeh…good signal eh…oh well missed out today, nevermind always tomorrow,
May 24, 2010 at 20:50
NEWS!
20:18 EUR/USD: Quick Snapshot Euro Vs Overbought/Oversold Models New York,
May 24th (IFR)- Marked to market – 1.2382 (Reuters 3000Xtra)
Short Term Model: Average 1.2444. Normal Range 1.2333/1.2556; overbought
1.2668/1.2779; oversold 1.2221/1.2110. Model -3 units EUR/USD.
Intermediate Model: Average 1.2812. Normal Range 1.2486/1.3136;
overbought
1.3460/1.3785; oversold 1.2160/1.1837. Model -3 units EUR/USD.
Medium Term Model: Average 1.3373. Normal Range 1.2922/1.3823;
overbought
1.4274/1.4724; oversold 1.2472/1.2054. Model -3 units EUR/USD.
Long Term Model: Average 1.3883. Normal Range 1.3271/1.4495; overbought
1.5107/1.5718; oversold 1.2660/1.2048. Model -3 units EUR/USD.
Blended Model: Average 1.3128. Normal Range 1.2753/1.3503; overbought
1.3877/1.4252; oversold 1.2378/1.2012. Model -12 units EUR/USD.
After paring back last week to just 6 units EUR/USD short as of Friday”s
close, the collapse in EUR/USD overnight has sent the short term model fully
short, and the blended model also fully short again (12 units EUR/USD) Spot
flirted with the 5-day composite (120-hr) SMA for four hours today and would
have incurred transactional slippage but has reverted to short again. As the
oversold condition has unwound on the short term model, spot has room to decline
to the 1.2110/60 area again (-3.0 short term/-2.0 intermediate) before its
oversold and that”s consistent with the present cycle low of 1.2143 registered
last week. Momentum has slipped away from the single currency and you should be
in fade rallies mode. Overbought short term +2.0 (1.2668) looks wishful
thinking, as does the 24-hr +2.0 at 1.2595, fair value at 1.2415 (24-hr SMA +1.0
Bollinger) is more feasible and given recent volatility you may get the chance.
Peter.Wadkins@thomsonReuters.com
May 24, 2010 at 20:56
hello diamond. thanks for the news update
May 24, 2010 at 21:00
Hey Dano, how are you? – was in Vegas over the weekend – boy i love that place
May 24, 2010 at 21:06
not bad. how are you? Ahhh, yeah, I like the dry climate here.. and lately the weather here has been so nice.. particularly now..74 degrees.. ahhh :) It seems we have taken your weather since it’s been like 70′s here when it should be 90′s… but I’m not complaining! :D
May 24, 2010 at 21:07
some nice movement on the aud at the moment.. hmmmm
May 24, 2010 at 21:32
looks like AUD will trade in a range between .82 and .84
May 24, 2010 at 21:37
it’s @ 8231 at the moment.. you thinking of going long?
May 24, 2010 at 21:45
the pair is pretty tough at the moment. The top is capped by margin longs looking to bail while the bottom is supported by reserve and macro guys looking for a rebound. But if anything i would be going long from .8210 or just below – me i am gonna stand aside – not enough conviction for me to depend on what others will do – i.e. managers/macro guys.
May 24, 2010 at 22:02
I’m going to keep my eye on it. Thanks diamond
May 25, 2010 at 02:28
Dano – Just went short AUD/USD with a target of .8010 -
May 24, 2010 at 21:14
good night all see you tomorrow
May 24, 2010 at 21:24
g’nite sahara
May 24, 2010 at 21:23
good night sahara
May 24, 2010 at 21:35
May be a bounce up on EUR USD
May 24, 2010 at 21:50
Out of my Short EURUSD pos for +50pips. Made +70 pips overnight – BOTH on Marks Calls – Great stuff Pipmaster
May 24, 2010 at 21:54
21:53 EUR/USD: Under Pressure For Most Of The Night SYDNEY May 25 (IFR) The EUR/USD was under pressure from the European open around 1.2525 in reaction to the news that the Bank of Spain seized control of Spanish lender CajaSur and later in the session on talk by Spanish unions that they might call a general strike to protest against the government”s budget cuts. The pairing triggered stops below 1.2450 to a low of 1.2345 during the European session; rallied to 1.2417 in NY on the back of gains on Wall Street led by the tech sector and strong US existing home sales, only to retreat in the afternoon as Wall Street slipped into negative territory led by the financials, touching the session low at 1.2332 late in the day.
The EUR/USD was soft in Asia yesterday despite strong performances on most of the local bourses, with the Chinese SSEC closing up 3.48%, so should the negative lead from Wall Street flow into the Asian bourses, which is a viable premise, further downside pressure looks likely on the EUR/USD. Short covering seen in the latter part of last week seems to have evaporated and the underlying downtrend remains in play. Support starts at Thursday”s 1.2296 low, while initial resistance comes in around 1.2415/20, which was the pullback high in NY.
The EUR/USD trades 1.2344/47. Andrew.M.Spencer@thomsonreuters.com
May 24, 2010 at 22:04
ahhhh that’s great. I’m still in that one short e/u that was up to -380 — but is now down to -150 — So I am anxious to get that trade gone.. Hopefully with a few pips.
I for one appreciate your news snippets diamond..
TY
May 24, 2010 at 22:04
Hi Mark,
I have been trying to send you a private message but it is not going.
Saying .. error as been encountered,please try again.
Could you please check this.
Thanks.
May 24, 2010 at 22:07
hi babashemi, if you want Mark to see your comment, put an @ piphut but no space between the @ and piphut. He then receives an email.
May 24, 2010 at 22:14
@babashemi
hi babashemi, if you want Mark to see your comment, put an @ piphut but no space between the @ and piphut. He then receives an email.
May 25, 2010 at 00:45
@piphut Bravo once again Mark last TP hit !!!!! U D MAN
May 25, 2010 at 00:55
oh yes MARK you are a KING
May 25, 2010 at 00:58
i was sleeping and the phone ring ring 1.23 broken oh yes
May 25, 2010 at 01:15
Hey what trading platform is best
May 25, 2010 at 01:34
Why the fall in EUR/USD???
01:08 EUR/USD: Moves Below 1.2300 On Heavy EUR/JPY Sales SYDNEY, May 25 (IFR) – The EUR/USD has slid below 1.2300 on heavy EUR/JPY selling – prompted by heavy falls in early Asian stock markets and US S&P futures. There is also talk that Japanese exporters have bought 105.00 EUR/JPY puts for downside protection and they could act as a magnet while the market remains in this risk-averse mood. Stops in the EUR/USD were triggered below 1.2295 with a low so far at 1.2281. The EUR/USD has bounced back to 1.2300 after the stops were triggered, but continues to trade with a heavy tone. The EUR/USD trades 1.2302/07. — John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com
May 25, 2010 at 01:46
Thanks for that news item Diamond
May 25, 2010 at 02:19
Has e/u gone to sustained break & opportunity to more short again?
May 25, 2010 at 02:34
Short EUR/CHF at 1.43
May 25, 2010 at 05:01
eyro may be toch 1985
May 25, 2010 at 05:06
Little hammer in H1 chart. lets see
May 25, 2010 at 13:12
good morning everyone
I’m short eu @ 1.2229 with target of 1.2175
May 25, 2010 at 13:14
Shares in Italy, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain all are down more than 20%.
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Rising tensions between North Korea and South Korea, renewed fears over the fate of Europe’s banking sector and a sharp selloff by global equities ensured safe-haven flows boosted the U.S. dollar Tuesday, strategists said, while the European single currency tumbled back toward its recent low.
http://www.marketwatch.com/column/currencies
May 25, 2010 at 13:21
@dano you are posting in yesterday’s signal. Find today’s signal on the homepage or if you sign up for the “free signals” in the upper right you will get an email whenever a new one comes out.
May 25, 2010 at 16:19
@piphut
Thanks Mark, I didn’t realize. yes, I’m getting free signals. I need to get more sleep.. lol