Recap: Welcome to a new week PipHutters! I hope everyone had as pip-filled a time as I did last week. As promised I did not trade on Friday but I don’t think it would have mattered anyway as the pair did not do a whole lot. A new recent high was formed at 1.2672 but the pair was quickly sold back down to the 1.2470 area and has since risen to 1.2520 where it is now.
Quick note on the website: I did some server upgrades this weekend so if anything is acting differently please let me know by submitting a help ticket. Also I’ve added various time periods to my charts so you can clearly see what timezone my charts are in (I get a lot of questions on that).
Daily Outlook: The rising trend (bottom blue line on chart) is still being respected – a bullish sign – as we just had double bullish candlesticks on the 1h charts: an inverted hammer at the 0:00 GMT hour and a hammer at the 1:00 GMT hour. See the candlestick alerts here for more details.
Technically the pair appears to be forming a lumpy head and shoulders reversal pattern in this short-term uptrend. The neckline of this formation is 1.2450 and a sustained break below this opens up 1.2400 and 1.2350 in the short-term. Meanwhile on the top-side a sustained break of 1.2630 could open up 1.2680 and 1.2750.
Fundamentally we have very, very little news tomorrow save for the USD existing home sales report at 15:00 GMT. See full forex calendar here for the details. But, with all the talk of Greece and the Eurozone we could see another country drive up the USD and continue the EUR/USD downtrend: North Korea. That’s right, South Korea completed its investigation last week of their sunken naval vessel and concluded it was a North Korean torpedo that sunk it. They even went so far as to release a quote saying that North Korea was going to “pay the price”. As the war of words heats up we could see a flight to safety in the USD.
Trading Idea: My primary trade is to sell a sustained break below the 1.2440 (the neckline) with targets at 1.2410, 1.2385, 1.2355 and 1.2315 for 125 pips profit. A much more aggressive trade would be a long on a sustained break above 1.2620 (on the 4h) or 1.2630 (on the 1h) targeting up to 1.2750 for 130 pips. I would much prefer the short opportunity here as the long-term trend is still very bearish, and looking for opportunities to short in general is a decent strategy here.
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May 24, 2010 at 12:12
+50 pips today. closed position for now. Thanks to Mark once again for his accurate signal.
May 24, 2010 at 12:18
i m glad for you YOGLOK
May 24, 2010 at 12:22
FOR me i m trading from this morning (it s holiday for us ) but i dont keep my position i have selled this morning from more 1.25
May 24, 2010 at 13:00
Yes, it gives me the jitters when the price starts moving against my trade and many times I am tempted to close and end up taking small profits only… I think psychology of trading is more important than technique!!
May 24, 2010 at 12:25
thanks for the great tip today Mark
May 24, 2010 at 12:48
anyone any views
May 24, 2010 at 12:59
12:55 EUR/USD: Support Emanates From EUR/JPY LONDON, May 24 (IFR)- USD/JPY has risen to fresh session highs but this has dragged EUR/JPY higher by default and this rise on the cross is offering EUR/USD a modicum of support in the short- term. Expect trading to linger in the upper-1.23s while the Yen negates the need for the EUR/USD to reflex the stronger Dollar. Eye a break of 1.2350 to generate fresh follow-through.
In other news, the EU”s Barroso has claimed that any calls for the EU treaty to be modified would be “naive” as it would be “near impossible” to modify the stability pact and withdraw the voting rights of countries running high deficits. Matthew.Foster-Smith@ThomsonReuters.Com
May 24, 2010 at 13:09
Quiet in here today. I am short from the primary trading idea (sustained break of 1.2440. 1 lot has been closed for 60+ pips. Another lot is open with SL at 1.2460 and tp of 1.2320.
May 24, 2010 at 13:14
@piphut. Hi Mark. Is it always the case that when a major support/resistance is broken, the EURUSD moves 100 pips in steps of 25-30 pips?
May 24, 2010 at 13:32
No, not always.
May 24, 2010 at 13:17
So You still think we´ll hit 1,2320 ?
May 24, 2010 at 13:33
I think probabilities are good, and trading is all about probabilities.
May 24, 2010 at 13:28
@Piphut – thanks for the trade – do you normally open two lots for each trade?
May 24, 2010 at 13:34
If it is a good setup (like a break of a head and shoulders) I’ll enter multiple lots. If it is an aggressive trade I’ll do single lot.
May 24, 2010 at 13:17
@piphut Hi All, as always, i missed the train again….:(
Any idea where can i short before it reached 1.2315?
May 24, 2010 at 13:35
We might see a pullback to the 1.2440 area where you could look for a short.
May 24, 2010 at 13:45
Million Thanks Mark…:)
May 24, 2010 at 13:19
cheers mark
May 24, 2010 at 13:39
Thanks for the signal as always Mark, made 80pips today and looking for reentry at 1.2440 if the opportunity comes again
May 24, 2010 at 13:42
13:31 US TECHS: S&P Outlook; Sensing Stability – Patient for Upticks
Boston, May 24 (IFR). The weekend press has been full of doomsday scenarios
for the single currency, an opinion not particularly defied by the Spanish
Government being forced to inject cash to rescue the ailing Roman Catholic
Church controlled savings bank CajaSur – (it’s worth noting that Spain has a lot
of these savings banks, and nearly all are heavily exposed to the ailing
property market). This move will cast further doubts over the sovereign states
credit worthiness and could mean a tricky day for Spanish sovereign debt. The
story has had a negative impact on the single currency, which is currently
trading at 1.2380 vs near 1.27 on Friday.
On Friday we felt that the coinciding of option expiration (in the days
leading up to expiration) with a VIX near 50 was responsible for the panicky
nature of the down trade. With that now past we see the market coming off the
boil but with a VIX still in the 35 to 40+ area there will still be plenty of
vol to go around. However with oil trading ok and the NASDAQ100 showing signs of
holding well above the flash crash lows we think SPM could trade near 1100 or
maybe to 1110/1120 where we would be aggressive sellers.
Duncan.Balsbaugh@Thomsonreuters.com
May 24, 2010 at 13:46
i think a lot of traders could have had there accounts depleted. that is why it is quiet today
May 24, 2010 at 13:49
Not if they follow Piphut
May 24, 2010 at 14:06
I’m pretty sure there are a lot of traders that I could tell them exactly what to do and when to do it and they still wouldn’t listen. It is just human nature to want to figure things out for yourself. The problem is that with forex most don’t survive the learning process.
May 24, 2010 at 14:15
Thats the trick to try to figure it out without breaking the bank first,, If I want to do something solo, I go very light, If its piphut I load up… I have learned so much following piphut, 50% of the time I can pretty much tell what your going to say to look for.
May 24, 2010 at 14:19
that is the point..perfect view of the main forex problem:)
May 24, 2010 at 15:47
Hello mark and thank you for your good signals I had nice profit today and every day
Do think we can go short on 1.2440 price again?
May 24, 2010 at 15:51
With confirmation yes.
May 24, 2010 at 22:00
mark i want you to realy assist me build back my account,i have lost nearly all i have.please help me
May 24, 2010 at 22:03
Hi Godfrey, how did you lose your account?
Hi Prasanta, it can take years of study and practice for people to become successful traders, and even then there is no guarantee in forex. It is a risky business. A good place to start is to read the articles here:
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/how-to-succeed-in-the-forex-market/
Remember, never trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Forex is risky. I recommend trading demo for months and journaling into you are consistently profitable in your demo account. There are no get rich quick answers. It takes patience and time and even then there are no guarantees.
I do have a PipHut Membership coming out in a few weeks I recommend you join. There I will be helping traders to learn how to trade the PipHut way, offering more tutorials and also specific entry/exit signals.
I’ll let you know when more details are available.
Mark
May 24, 2010 at 13:47
13:45 EUR/USD: Euro Is A Strong Currency – Barroso LONDON, May 24 (IFR)- According to the latest Barroso comments the Euro is “s strong currency”, with the EU man also noting it will not fail and that recent problems are not with the Euro, simply countries living “beyond their means”. The turnaround in EUR/JPY has opened the door for a EUR/USD drift back towards the 1.2350 session/intraday lows, with a snap below here likely to accelerate the intraday decline heading into the European close. Matthew.Foster-Smith@ThomsonReuters.Com
May 24, 2010 at 13:58
“Burden of Irish debt could yet eclipse that of Greece” was the headline of an article by Morgan Kelly in The Irish Times on Saturday. Kelly opines that “it is no longer a question of whether Ireland will go bust, but when”.
May 24, 2010 at 13:59
Thanks @Mark, by now, +21 pips, waiting for 1.24 to trade again. Cheers to everyone. :)
May 24, 2010 at 14:22
Hello all. Just tuned in. Today it’s pentecost. At least in Switzerland, Germany, France … stores and banks are closed… Thanks for the signals looking for 1.24
May 24, 2010 at 14:23
Yikes, that is scary that I missed that. I really need to update the 2010 holiday calendar..
May 24, 2010 at 14:33
would be useful – thank you :-)
May 24, 2010 at 14:48
I use www(dot)2010worldmarkethours(dot)com
MM does not show holiday
May 24, 2010 at 14:52
Mark Next Monday is a Bank Hoilday in the UK
http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Governmentcitizensandrights/Livingintheuk/DG_073741
May 24, 2010 at 17:05
Hi there Mark. Sent from my pocketpc. You should have known that since “Johnny” wasnt posting today something was going on in iEurope Mark!!!
We have a holiday with beautiful weathe All is closed today. Tomorrow we will push our Euro again to higher heights. Have a nice day Mark. I am not trading today but enjoying otherwise.
May 24, 2010 at 17:58
You’re right, I should have known!
May 24, 2010 at 14:24
14:15 EUR/USD: Offers Line Up In 1.24s To Cap Gains LONDON, May 24 (IFR)- 1.2345 hit following the better-than-expected US Existing Home Sales data. Up 7.6% on the month the headline 5.77Mln April reading has helped EUR/USD probe fresh session/intraday lows but the price is yet to sustain a drop into the lower-half of the 1.23s. Selling into failures will remain preferred, with offers lining up in the 1.24s to keep the topside limited into the European closes.
May 24, 2010 at 14:37
The SNB doesn’t follow holidays nor anything:
“Much of the weakness in EUR/USD this morning has been blamed on reports of SNB reserve diversification. Diversification or not, the SNB were large sellers of EUR/USD this morning, no matter the motives.” (from Jamie at Forex News)
May 24, 2010 at 14:46
Hi all!
Man,I entered at exactly the right moment but when I see the money rolling in I’m always soooo pressured to just click and it’s in the bank.I always close my trade too soon.
Anyway,thanks Mark,I got my sweet 38 pips anyway.Starting to get the feel for this game…
May 24, 2010 at 14:47
Swiss TV is reporting that every day 7 bl of EUR are flowing to swiss bank accounts, before all from german savers mistrusting their EUR currency.
May 24, 2010 at 15:03
Testing
May 24, 2010 at 15:15
i’m short GBPUSD at 1.4417 target 1.4243. lets see (my trade only)
May 24, 2010 at 15:25
@zubair I am looking at same thing trying to enter @ 1.4430 though
May 24, 2010 at 15:29
Hmm it might be the best entry. Well i have confirmed it with London Session on FX Bootcamp and with stochastic indicator. Lets see
May 24, 2010 at 15:31
I am in now
May 24, 2010 at 15:19
Good morning everyone
May 24, 2010 at 15:25
GM Greg
May 24, 2010 at 15:31
zubair can i ask why your looking at that trade ,is the fib retracement
May 24, 2010 at 15:33
Can not speak for zubair but I took it from Fibo and trend res, former supp… stop above next res 1.4470 good R/R
May 24, 2010 at 15:34
It is the combination of all technical indicators+Fundamental data of US which is Green.
Thank you.
May 24, 2010 at 15:39
Maybe should have waited for candle confirm though
May 24, 2010 at 16:40
I think GBPUSD will not go above 1.4450 level, i saw a selling fractal at M15, but im still in fear of loss
May 24, 2010 at 16:43
We will see, got my stop 4470 above next set of fibos, 1 hr needs to close below 4440
May 24, 2010 at 16:46
Dear cadtek i think we can see 1.4475 previous high.
May 24, 2010 at 16:01
Feeling better now with the candle on last 1 hr
May 24, 2010 at 15:33
Hi all,
I almost bored over here. Connection to broker always hiccup. Do know what is happening. Browse over internet is fast but when using broker’s terminal very-very slow. Even I had used proxy. If anybody using FXCM? How is it? I realised it seem almost 4 weeks. Yeah as always, I missed the boat but will wait at 1.4442 (Weekly Pivot). Tq.
May 24, 2010 at 15:35
ok thanks
May 24, 2010 at 15:35
thanks guys
May 24, 2010 at 15:36
(Pls ignore my previous post) Hi all. I almost bored over here. Connection to broker always hiccup. Do know what is happening. Browse over internet is fast but when using broker’s terminal very-very slow. Even I had used proxy still the same. If anybody using FXCM? How is it? I realised it seem almost 4 weeks. Yeah as always, I missed the boat. Eventually will wait at 1.2442 which is Weekly Pivot. Tq.
May 24, 2010 at 15:53
I am using FXCM. I found it that they are reliable. I liked their trading station very much. The Chart is fantastic. I used other brokers also. But honestly, I liked FXCM. They pay in time, if you apply for withdrawals. But I didn’t try MT4. I find their trading station is very easy. So I didn’t bother to check MT4. I tried FXCM Micro also, very good broker. But I am registered to FXCM UK not FXCM US. And very important thing is they are regulated in both US and UK.
May 24, 2010 at 15:50
Hey Mark, with the holiday info, you still think the trend show us to short in 1.2440 -> 1.2320?
May 24, 2010 at 15:54
@joserog – with confirmation (e.g. candlesticks) I still think a pullback to 1.2440 is a good setup to short, yes.
May 24, 2010 at 15:56
Ok, thanks, I’ll be looking for that.
May 24, 2010 at 16:00
waiting to see that one too
May 24, 2010 at 16:43
hi mark do u usually use M30 or H1 as confirmation?
May 24, 2010 at 16:30
hi Mark, where are we now?
May 24, 2010 at 16:42
Hey guys what time does the trade Ideas come out. Looking forward in getting some pip .
Thanks
May 24, 2010 at 16:45
Usually about 5 or 6 GMT, signup for email alerts
May 24, 2010 at 16:53
Hi again,
Currently price nearer 1.2440 around 30pips. Awaiting to hit it. Tq.
May 24, 2010 at 16:55
hi all. Hi Mark. Excellent analysis as always. Waiting for bounce down again. It is quite here and on the market, but it’s kind of nice.
May 24, 2010 at 17:00
@cadtek and Zubair, can i short gbp/usd now….
May 24, 2010 at 17:09
You could, its not a piphut trade just so you know… tight stop 4470
May 24, 2010 at 17:03
Thanks guys put in a pending for 1.2440 what do your guys use as a S/L or T/P. I use The 1.2315 as my T/P and a 100 pips as my S/L what do you guys think>
May 24, 2010 at 17:07
Well, I am a newbie, but have learned that You should wait for a confirmation below 1,2440 before You enter short.
As I remember – Mark had proposed 1,2460 as SL from the primary trading.. TP at 1,2320 but maybe things have changed
May 24, 2010 at 17:08
I would use same analisys as pip hut said before, its the same trade, stop loss 2460
May 24, 2010 at 17:11
I find it quite helpfull to open and reresh this page often it will help you see the last things mark said
http://piphut.com/members/admin/activity/
May 24, 2010 at 17:22
Hello Mark,
I hope you are doing well. I am happy that you took some time off to visit Hawaii with your family and hope you enjoyed.
I have been following Piphut but just not making many trades, yet. I have just been taking my time and getting some rest. Now, I am gradually working myself back into my normal routine.
BTW, your signals have been excellent and thanks!!!
May 24, 2010 at 17:49
Hi Lisa, glad to hear your still alive and doing well! Everyone misses you here at PipHut but we understand you’ll be back when you are ready.
Take care,
Mark
May 24, 2010 at 17:24
Hello Everyone,
I hope that you all are still alive after that big retracement up the other day. Keep up the good pipping!!!
May 24, 2010 at 17:29
Hey, good to hear from you again after so long. How are you holding on? glad you are getting back into normal routine……… we missed you :)
May 24, 2010 at 17:36
Marino,
I am doing alot better (some days are better than others)but I know that I am blessed.
I have missed all of you and hope that we all be in that 10% that succeed at trading.
May 24, 2010 at 17:31
ok thanks for the info and link.
May 24, 2010 at 17:43
Hi again,
Almost 00:45hrs (or GMT+8) here & I feel sleepy. Still awaiting price touch/hit 1.2440. :)
May 24, 2010 at 17:59
@shamtt: Hi, what is your country?
May 24, 2010 at 18:04
hyperx, click on his name (in blue) to see his profile page
May 24, 2010 at 18:17
:) Thanks Mark
May 24, 2010 at 17:58
why did i not find this site a year ago! i couldve been a millionaire!!! awesome signals…todays was spot on!!!!
May 24, 2010 at 18:05
Feel free to spread the word my friend :)
May 24, 2010 at 18:22
Mark i got a question to ask. Today the greenback data was green and yet EURUSD didn’t fall yet. What was the reason behind it??
Zubair.
May 24, 2010 at 18:49
Zubair, the news cannot be predicted. Logically, yes, but sentiment can never be assumed and sentiment is what drives the market. If there is good US news, logically, the EURUSD should fall, but only if the sentiment majority is USD strong as well. I hope this makes sense.
May 24, 2010 at 18:51
Thanks Sox.
May 24, 2010 at 19:11
@zubair123, Further complicating that (on top of what Sox said) are risk aversion and market expectations.
Risk aversion can cause markets to move toward the USD even if the news is bad for the US economy.
http://piphut.com/2009/08/fundamental-analysis-us-recovery-signal/
And market expectations. Remember analysts and big money have been predicting and forecasting news events for weeks if not months now, so they have already baked expectations into the charts. If that news is positive, but not as positive as they had predicted the USD could drop as they sell to adjust to the less positive news.
Mix it all together and it is why I avoid trading news like it is the plague.
May 24, 2010 at 19:13
Thank you Mark.
May 24, 2010 at 18:10
hi razza it s not too late i hope it for you
May 24, 2010 at 18:17
hi mark! awesome dude awesome…me trying to be guenius and failing at forex for the past year – i think you my blessing..been following for a week now…your experience & knowledge must be applauded! i look for forward to sharing more pips with you!
May 24, 2010 at 18:22
Learn… and learn… don’t stop to learn…
May 24, 2010 at 18:24
Good motivation for me… :) haha…
May 24, 2010 at 18:24
i m worry when i see 12400 ” psychologic level ” as we said i think i m out and i wait
May 24, 2010 at 18:28
Hello. If we broke the 1.24 support where could it finish?
May 24, 2010 at 18:35
Do you guys think that the Euro will go back to 1.3100
May 24, 2010 at 18:38
Hi again,
It is 02:37 hrs (GMT+8) here. Try hard to keep my eyes open. :) Price still not touch/hit 1.4220. BTW, Mark I am still learning how can you get the price (exact figures) each time you update the chart. Tq.
May 24, 2010 at 18:41
@shamtt: hi, nice to meet you, I am Malaysian people too.. :)
May 24, 2010 at 18:49
my ID clearly state im malaysian too….hahahahha
May 24, 2010 at 18:53
:) nice bro..
May 24, 2010 at 18:54
Hey how do you join the different trade signals like the Intraday Traders ,Scalpers,Long term traders and Candlestick Traders. I have had this site for awhile but have not looked at it real good until now so any help is much appreciated.
Thanks