Recap: No trades taken off yesterday’s signal as bulls were able to push the pair up to our entry level at 1.2350 but no bearish entry candlesticks were given to confirm the reversal. Resistance at 2350 has so far held but bears were also not able to gain much traction against the aggressive bears as the pair has stayed in a 1.2300-1.2350 range ever since.
Daily Outlook: It’s hard to argue with the bullish short-term charts at this point as the pair has climbed over 460 pips since last week’s low of 1.1875. We have two rising trend supports (bottom blue lines) that I will look to hide stop-losses behind these as I hunt for longs on the day, and their is a falling trend resistance (top blue line) from the daily charts that I will look to take profits before reaching it. I will also look for potential shorts near that falling trend resistance.
Only two concerns with long trades on the day – 1) Long-term trend is still strongly negative and I’m watching closely for the resumption of the downtrend as are many other analysts. 2) We had a bearish candlestick on Monday’s daily chart and then a long bull bar yesterday. In the past in such a setup I’ve frequently seen a strong bear bar the following day (today).
Quite a few news events coming out tomorrow including inflation numbers for the US and Eurozone. Inflation is expected to decrease slightly in the US and remain constant in Europe, but I don’t expect any major surprises with these releases. See the forex calendar for more details and all the news events.
Trading Idea: Primary trade will be a long near initial rising trend support, currently at 1.2215. Long targets from this level at 1.2240, 1.2270, 1.2300 and 1.2330 for 115 pips profit. On this trade I expect 1.2165 to cap any bearish moves, and a bearish break of 1.2165 opens up 1.2050.
Secondary trade will be a long on a sustained break of 1.2350 on the 60m charts, with long targets up to 1.2450 for 100 pips profit.
A much more aggressive trade will be the primary trade from yesterday: short on a failure of 1.2350 with short targets down to 1.2215 (where we could look for the primary trade of today).
Happy pipping and don’t forget to utilize the candlestick alert system to help your entry points!
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June 16, 2010 at 21:07
I think I am off to bed soon and will see it all tomorrow.
June 16, 2010 at 21:29
Good night Johnny! ;)
June 16, 2010 at 21:19
any one think that GBP will pull EUR with it?
June 16, 2010 at 21:36
Hope so! :)
June 16, 2010 at 21:28
Good night everyone!
Got back just to see things are still the same…
What happenened to GBP? :) Oh, yes that guy was going to talk…
Remember Britney Spears “Oops, I did it again!” LOLOLOL
Still short from @1.2320. SL moved to BE+2 pips.
June 16, 2010 at 21:33
Rising trend line now @1.2282 on my chart.
June 16, 2010 at 21:59
Question:- Is it possible we have seen a double top on an accelerated uptrend (ie the fans)?
June 16, 2010 at 22:02
first close under 1.23 from 9 hours ago
June 16, 2010 at 22:05
I can be, but this PA is odd to say the least. GBP falls like that and no movement at all in EUR… Can this be related with SNB?
June 16, 2010 at 22:09
no it BP suspending dividend payments has also affected eurgbp
June 16, 2010 at 22:10
earlier postings suggested it was a result of the news announcing that BP have suspended dividend payments, much of the UK economy is bound up in BP, pension funds etc. Affects the GBP rather than the Euro or the Dollar
June 16, 2010 at 22:13
Nonetheless PA in EUR continues strange, today 100 pips down then 100 pips back up and now crawling on 1.23. Bears out of power, something is going on on the background that we don’t know about?
June 16, 2010 at 22:18
PA?
June 16, 2010 at 22:23
Price Action
June 16, 2010 at 22:23
Price Action I guess
June 16, 2010 at 22:26
thanks
June 16, 2010 at 22:13
any one long on the gbp/usd or only my domb ass
June 16, 2010 at 22:18
:) Perhaps can be a good bet in the medium term…
June 16, 2010 at 22:20
might short E/G…any thoughts?
June 16, 2010 at 22:52
Sorry don’t follow E/G. I know usually one or two days before the end of the month, it’s always a good buy because of the flows coming out of GB due to EZ obligations…
June 16, 2010 at 22:22
Hourly Pivots:
S3 – 1.2267
S2 – 1.2285
S1 – 1.2291
1.2303
R1 – 1.2309
R2 – 1.2321
R3 – 1.2339
June 16, 2010 at 22:44
I c like a flag forming on H4 any one else noticed that?
June 16, 2010 at 22:57
It looks so. This thing will be moving fast and furious when Tokyo opens… hopefully! :)
June 16, 2010 at 23:02
u think moving fast to up?
June 16, 2010 at 23:12
Dont know! Just in case I closed my shorts.
June 16, 2010 at 23:16
Yesterday was a quiet one in Asia and there is little overnight to spark investor excitement, so another session of tight range trading is favoured, unless there is unforeseen news, with initial support and resistance at the overnight 1.2255/1.2354 parameters. The EUR/USD trades 1.2300/03. Andrew.M.Spencer@thomsonreuters.com
June 16, 2010 at 22:55
nice my G/U short hit for 100pips during my sleep.
sleep takes care of everything.
June 16, 2010 at 22:58
Nice one! Looks like after all BP is paying dividends so someone! :)
June 16, 2010 at 22:59
Australia open… 1 more hour for Tokyo…
June 16, 2010 at 23:01
Closed my short for +11 pips, not looking it’s going down.
June 16, 2010 at 23:03
@littlesolution: This thing is ours! no one around besides us! We must have some problem! :)
June 16, 2010 at 23:06
so let’s take all the space for us only :D
June 16, 2010 at 23:07
hi@rbotello any clue on the g/u
June 16, 2010 at 23:24
It still has room to go lower we can end up testing 4550 level soon but the broader picture shows that only GU fell. In the last 5 days Asia was up and EURO is now still above 2300, so make your call.. tough one though…
June 16, 2010 at 23:08
soory @rbotelho
June 16, 2010 at 23:19
closed my EU short – loss 10 pips.
cant see a firm s direction here
June 16, 2010 at 23:22
ok here’s my reasoning for going short..we had an accelerated up trend with over 2 retracements to the 50MA, there was a double top, when it fell, many noise traders sold – floor traders bought again and stopped a lot of folk out, floor traders will go short from here whilst all the noise traders are nervous…haha prob complete rubbish but will see in the morning, happy asian session one and all!
June 16, 2010 at 23:25
I’m flat atm. Good luck to you.
June 16, 2010 at 23:29
you too..g’night
June 16, 2010 at 23:24
what ys think of this descending triangle on the 5 min chart – not as accurate given the timeframe but may have something here
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/1670/eutriangle16062010.png
June 16, 2010 at 23:28
had my eye on a similar thing on the M15 all evening, is one of the reasons I’ve convinced myself this thing has peaked…catch you soon Diamond – off to the land of nod now..GL
ps interestingly the support line on my M15 triangle is the new daily pivot
June 16, 2010 at 23:32
you can spot it also on the 15m chart diamond.
June 16, 2010 at 23:30
humble opinion diamond……isnt it triangle formation in lesser time frame has no value
June 16, 2010 at 23:53
i wouldnt go as far as to say it has “NO VALUE” but i have traded smaller time frame patterns before with a significant amount of success – they may not be as accurate but who knows.
June 16, 2010 at 23:55
can also see the pattern on the 30min and 1H charts
June 17, 2010 at 00:24
how do you think the short time frame payed out – just an FYI – MACD had just crossed over into negative and stochastics were signalling a sell – quick 20 pips
June 16, 2010 at 23:34
It will not take too long to either break up or down.. let’s just wait.
June 16, 2010 at 23:42
another punt trade right now.
ucad long @ 1.0250 SL: 1.0210
target 1.0350
June 17, 2010 at 00:08
There it goes… broke the triangle and pierced the trend line
June 17, 2010 at 00:08
Let’s see if 1.2285 can hold it (trendline).
June 17, 2010 at 00:11
Short @1.2282
June 17, 2010 at 00:14
Ok guys! Good luck all! Going to bed now. Cya tomorrow!
June 17, 2010 at 01:17
00:33 EUR/USD: Italian Economists Warn Of EMU Break-Up – Telegraph SYDNEY, June 17 (IFR) – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in today”s UK Telegraph reports that Italian newspaper Il Sole has published a letter by 100 Italian economists warning that the austerity strategy imposed by Brussels/Frankfurt risks tipping Europe into a “self-feeding downward spiral”. The letter goes on to say that the austerity programs won”t hold the euro-zone together – but instead “cause weaker countries to be catapulted out of EMU. Others will leave in order to restore sovereign control over their central banks and unemployment policies”. The EUR/USD trades 1.2282/87. –John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com
June 17, 2010 at 01:38
Looks like it has come back to touch the rising trend line
June 17, 2010 at 02:19
and it bounces back off of it, still flat though as I don’t see any conformation
June 17, 2010 at 04:18
I don’t think JPY session has the power to break a trend line.
June 17, 2010 at 02:42
just got into my office……….diamond thanks for your feedback………really appreciate your contributions . thank you
June 17, 2010 at 03:42
Hi guys!
Newbie question:
For a sell position with a spread of 2 pips, if you put a t/p at 1.2000 will it close when the BID price reaches 1.2000 or when the ASK price reaches 1.2000?
Thank you and God bless.
June 17, 2010 at 03:51
think of it this way
When your intial position is a SELL to close the position you have to BUY. Whenever you BUY you basically are lifting the offer side – so it is when your offer reaches 1.200
June 17, 2010 at 03:54
Which is aonther good reason not to open trades when market has just opened on a sunday as the spread will be a LOT higher and your trade has to travel further before its in profit
June 17, 2010 at 03:56
Ahhh… ok thanks!
June 17, 2010 at 03:54
maybe a bit clearer
think of it this way
When your intial position is a SELL, to close the position you have to BUY. Whenever you BUY you basically are lifting the offer side – so it is when THE offer(ASK) reaches 1.200
June 17, 2010 at 03:55
“Offer” – that will be the ASK price. Got it!
Thank you!
June 17, 2010 at 04:15
you guys are making this so confusing.
its very simple:
whichever price that is NOT favorable to you, is what your price will be.
when you buy a pair, you buy the higher price,
when you sell, you sell the lower price.
its the broker’s way of making money from you,
in a sense, 2pip spread is actually a 4 pip spread, because you give the broker 2 pips when you open and 2 pips when you close.
buy high, sell low :) ironic
June 17, 2010 at 04:30
g m every one,,,im a new trader wt do u think about eur its now 1.2275 up or down .good luck today.ty
June 17, 2010 at 04:49
There may be a possible bounce off 1.22
But .. I might be wrong.
June 17, 2010 at 04:54
GM all
June 17, 2010 at 05:00
GM MARK
June 17, 2010 at 05:03
and another
http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/4981/eutriangle16062010v2.png
June 17, 2010 at 05:04
another triangle that is
June 17, 2010 at 05:10
solid support at .2255
June 17, 2010 at 05:20
yup. Not to forget… 1.2260 is also trend line, and also 50% fib from last 1H bull rocket.
June 17, 2010 at 05:37
Will it or wont it???
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5944/eupitchfork16062010.png
June 17, 2010 at 20:25
pitchfork is fake. Sorry to say like that. fitchfork should be like real fork. two corners should be parallel.
June 17, 2010 at 19:33
Looks like down from the stochastic and MACD.
Triangle looks to break out to fall.
Down to 2350 and back up or on down past that?
What do you think, Diamond?
June 17, 2010 at 20:19
Cadtek, my daughter-in-law is from Pampa,Tx. They are big Aggie fans.
The beautiful baby boy is her son. My first
grandchild so I think she is a swell person.
I realize Texas is about the size of Europe so you
may not have any idea where Pampa is.
Are you a serious student of forex?
I read and read and study and I still feel like I
have only scratched the surface.