Recap: No trades taken off yesterday’s signal as bulls were able to push the pair up to our entry level at 1.2350 but no bearish entry candlesticks were given to confirm the reversal. Resistance at 2350 has so far held but bears were also not able to gain much traction against the aggressive bears as the pair has stayed in a 1.2300-1.2350 range ever since.
Daily Outlook: It’s hard to argue with the bullish short-term charts at this point as the pair has climbed over 460 pips since last week’s low of 1.1875. We have two rising trend supports (bottom blue lines) that I will look to hide stop-losses behind these as I hunt for longs on the day, and their is a falling trend resistance (top blue line) from the daily charts that I will look to take profits before reaching it. I will also look for potential shorts near that falling trend resistance.
Only two concerns with long trades on the day – 1) Long-term trend is still strongly negative and I’m watching closely for the resumption of the downtrend as are many other analysts. 2) We had a bearish candlestick on Monday’s daily chart and then a long bull bar yesterday. In the past in such a setup I’ve frequently seen a strong bear bar the following day (today).
Quite a few news events coming out tomorrow including inflation numbers for the US and Eurozone. Inflation is expected to decrease slightly in the US and remain constant in Europe, but I don’t expect any major surprises with these releases. See the forex calendar for more details and all the news events.
Trading Idea: Primary trade will be a long near initial rising trend support, currently at 1.2215. Long targets from this level at 1.2240, 1.2270, 1.2300 and 1.2330 for 115 pips profit. On this trade I expect 1.2165 to cap any bearish moves, and a bearish break of 1.2165 opens up 1.2050.
Secondary trade will be a long on a sustained break of 1.2350 on the 60m charts, with long targets up to 1.2450 for 100 pips profit.
A much more aggressive trade will be the primary trade from yesterday: short on a failure of 1.2350 with short targets down to 1.2215 (where we could look for the primary trade of today).
Happy pipping and don’t forget to utilize the candlestick alert system to help your entry points!
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June 16, 2010 at 16:51
1438GMT increasing signs of a top forming, bias lower while below 1.2325/30, below 1.2240 trend line may see reversal lower.
From Forex.com
June 16, 2010 at 16:53
Hi there Jennifer, nice to see you again. Good luck on your trading and thanks for the info. :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:04
Hey Johny nice to see you again :-)
June 16, 2010 at 17:07
Hi Zubair. How are you? Hard life aint it? :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:08
Yes :) gotta go . will be right back after 10 mins
June 16, 2010 at 17:19
Hi, Johnny. Nice to see you as well.
May we all get PIPed…: )
June 16, 2010 at 16:53
What value do you guys have on the rising trendline at the current hour?
Thanks.
June 16, 2010 at 16:53
i think we will how is the power of 2304!
June 16, 2010 at 16:58
haha nice one jumped right up 10 pips :)
June 16, 2010 at 16:54
we will see i mean
June 16, 2010 at 17:06
@johny: Hi my friend, fresh as a daisy, solid as a rock, thank you for this vauable information.
June 16, 2010 at 17:08
Pleasure.
June 16, 2010 at 17:17
@gipa M30 123 setup
Buy entry @ 1.2304
S/L @ close below 1.2281
T/P @ 1.2342 (final resistance of previous 123)
Closed @ 1.2337 (+30pip) – heh heh… gotta love it :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:14
Pound plunges further amongst most majors.
June 16, 2010 at 17:17
@piphut Mark are we moving towards a possible triangular breakout on the 1hr chart?
June 16, 2010 at 17:19
Here is my analysis for what its worth on the €$.
A sustained break below 2280 will make it come crumbling down. Where it stops I don’t know.
A sustained break above 2350, Since it already tested twice, will rocket it higher to about 2460.
What do you think?
June 16, 2010 at 17:23
Good analysis Beexo. According to me its heading close to Marks signal :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:20
Britain’s Got Talent
1) Guy swallows diamond ring
2) Guy swallows a locked mini padlock
3) He then swallows the key
4) His stomach moves
5) He then regugitates the ring which is locked in the padlock
:o
June 16, 2010 at 19:13
obviously, its an illusion.
June 16, 2010 at 17:20
Why I don’t like long term trading, that is on the one hour timeframe chart: By the time everybody shouts spinning top, doji, dubbeltop, or dancing Madonna, then on my five minute chart the train has already gone by and you have missed half the journey.
June 16, 2010 at 17:24
Dancing Madonna ? – hahaha
Please don’t tell me thats an actual pattern that I do not know of! — hahhahahaha
June 16, 2010 at 17:28
Didnt they wrote that song for him? Hands Up Baby Hands Up …?
June 16, 2010 at 17:25
What a great day! Locked all profits from Marks signal for shorts from yesterday, went long again today @1.2266, got out @ 1.2328 and shorted again @1.2220 riding it now, the best day of June for me definitely! Hope you guys are also doing great today! Good luck everyone! Be back later on Asian open, take care!
June 16, 2010 at 17:27
Se ya my friend :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:27
bulls are “trying” but i think they have not necessary power!
June 16, 2010 at 17:28
If this pitchfork breaks then EURUSD will be slumped hardy as tonight Mr.Bernake will be on Spotlight.
http://img295.imageshack.us/f/eurusd.png/
June 16, 2010 at 17:53
Zubair im trying to understand ur chart.. :D
nothing getting in my head :(
June 16, 2010 at 17:58
It is simple Zishan. 21 EMA is orange, 55 EMA is blue. and those blue rays are Pitchfork. and black lines are fibo levels. Simple
June 16, 2010 at 17:59
Sorry fibo levels are also blue but they are horizontal. ok Dude
June 16, 2010 at 18:06
yeah but im not familiar with that Pitchfork thing.. will google abt it…
and is that all u use to make ur analysist? i mean no other indicators?
June 16, 2010 at 18:10
Indicators are used in the ranging market not in a trending market! i also use MACD and Stochastic slow.
Visit this and complete the forex education course.
http://www.babypip.com
June 16, 2010 at 17:28
Emerging news on Spain and impacton EUR/USD:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210300-latest-eu-debt-crisis-3-reports-say-spain-is-seeking-aid?source=feed.
June 16, 2010 at 17:28
Emerging news on Spain and impact on EUR/USD:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210300-latest-eu-debt-crisis-3-reports-say-spain-is-seeking-aid?source=feed.
June 16, 2010 at 17:32
The lack of follow through makes for a confusing picture as we head into the end of the week..1.2250 and 1.2350 are key for EUR/USD (dl)
June 16, 2010 at 17:32
@rbothelo. Well done young man, must feel good.
June 16, 2010 at 17:34
He will feel even better tonight when he tells is wife about the cash he made :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:50
But he might feel worse seeing her spending it all tomorrow
June 16, 2010 at 17:54
What a difference a night makes Mike :)
June 16, 2010 at 17:41
hahahhahaa
June 16, 2010 at 17:57
is that a Doji forming on the Daily…surely this thing has peaked now?
June 16, 2010 at 18:03
yes a doji but green doji not red one. And BTW it is not closed yet :D
June 16, 2010 at 18:09
cheers zubair, I did mean to add there’s a few hours to go…BTW what time do you use as the official close..10pm GMT?
June 16, 2010 at 18:12
I Use Standard MT4 software. I don’t know the exact time really
June 16, 2010 at 18:01
Hi @Mark and @all, how could I know if the “a failure of 1.2350″ from the trading idea happens? Is there a kind of guide like the “sustained breake” that you provide us? Or should I check for some especific candlesticks, signals, values, etc.? Or is as simple as it goes down from 1.2350 … Thanks for the info. Cheers.
June 16, 2010 at 18:03
piphut
June 16, 2010 at 2:54 pm · Reply
There was a failure (the opposite of a sustained break) where the price jumps across but then closes below.
June 16, 2010 at 18:08
Thanks @squidge, exactly what I need to know.
June 16, 2010 at 18:10
@JOSEROG If you check Marks rcent blue postings in here you’ll find out this trade is no longer valid .
June 16, 2010 at 18:14
Ok, thanks @johnny, I didn’t check all the comments back, good to know before a bad trade.
June 16, 2010 at 18:02
still trying to climb up!
June 16, 2010 at 18:05
ROFL this is the 3rd time this has happened … Im currently developing some software that allows me to open and close trades on multiple accounts.
Right now im testing it on 2 demo accounts.
Im testing open trade functionality.
For the 3 rd time I open a trade on 2 accounts WITHOUT looking at charts or really caring what happens to the $’s in the account . We are now +20 pips … LOL!!!
June 16, 2010 at 18:23
Hi daves,
if u r using MT4, there is nice tool called MT4 Multi terminal @ which u can manage multiple account at same time
June 16, 2010 at 18:33
thanks for the info m8 :)
June 16, 2010 at 18:15
i wasnt sure either that was a signal ,i do now so thanks for that explanation lads ,thats wat this site is about ,people helping each other to understand wat mark is trying to teach us
June 16, 2010 at 18:16
@SQUIDGE
A Doji Shooting Star is a trend reversal indicator. In a downtrend, a long red body is followed by a doji (a period with the same opening and closing price) – this is a bullish Doji Star. During an uptrend, when a long green body is followed by a Doji, then this is a bearish Doji Star.
How to recognise a Doji Shooting Star: It may occur during an uptrend or a downtrend, but the key criteria are that a long green or long red body is followed by a Doji. The Doji is gapped below or above the long body. In the case of a bullish Doji Star, the Doji open/close price level is below the long red body and in the case of a bearish Doji Star, the open/close price is above the long green body.
June 16, 2010 at 18:21
interesting..didnt realise the importance of the previous candle..thanks
June 16, 2010 at 18:18
mike wat stochs did u say to me earlier
June 16, 2010 at 18:26
8,3,5 goes nicely with the EMA I mentioned, this is only one of many setups I guess, I like that one much
June 16, 2010 at 18:23
– The Euro has been hovering around 1.2300 in the last hours, at the same price level it had at the beginning of the day. The pair moved in a range of less that a hundred pips so far on Wednesday as the rally of the Euro from 4-years low takes a pause.
EUR/USD bottomed during the European session at 1.2255 but rebounded and rose back above 1.2300, close to daily highs that lie at 1.2353 (3-week high).
According to Scott Barkley from ProAct Traders, the pair still has momentum entering for the upside “and we have a bull flag ( bullish) apparent. Interim target is the -0.270 fib extension at 1.2399”.
June 16, 2010 at 18:26
I just post this news for all of us and do what you want with it :), personally I feel we’re not going to breach 2350 (If it still has the power to get here?) But thats just my view :)
June 16, 2010 at 18:50
I agree with u Johnny
June 16, 2010 at 18:25
nice johnny but i havent understand i will see the comment tomorrow i m so tired!
June 16, 2010 at 18:28
Good nite Sahara, dont forget to ‘water’ them camels :)
June 16, 2010 at 18:29
it was about the candles it s good for me!
June 16, 2010 at 18:30
camels are diffucult now ….water no JW yes
June 16, 2010 at 18:30
thanks mike ,btw im still in that trade from earlier ,took 2 lots still 1 to go ,free trade and in profit nothing to lose ,hoping that it may continue north ,we can but try haha
June 16, 2010 at 18:40
nite guys.my second bad day sofar.I hope it will end soon.missed entries,closed to late so it hit BE.Well at least the losses are really small :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:03
Enter long if hourly close is above 1.2349
Profit target – 1.2406
Protective stop – 1.2316
Enter short if hourly close is below 1.2294
Profit target – 1.2235
Protective stop – 1.2334
June 16, 2010 at 19:07
Well you better prepare yourself then Nirmal :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:10
Hey Johny i’m back :-)
June 16, 2010 at 19:13
Hey Zubair, had dinner ? :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:17
Yes :) and also i was watching FIFA match
June 16, 2010 at 19:19
Pakistan plays cricket better then footbal hey Zubair :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:24
Yes Pakis are T20 Cricket champions but i love Football don’t know why :-)
June 16, 2010 at 19:33
I remember your old avatar :)
Cant you get me some tasty Paki food Zubair, love to have some now :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:47
Yes come here and eat :D
June 16, 2010 at 19:13
just my view jhony
June 16, 2010 at 19:15
Nothing wrong with the view my friend. In fact they look quite good. I only mentioned that because I think soon you need to place a trade :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:33
Yes I will let’s see :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:09
I didnt enter nor close any trades today.
i hate markets like yesterday and today…
see you all tomorrow.
June 16, 2010 at 19:10
nice day today thank u mark for your input.
i even made some pips on ausie usd :)
June 16, 2010 at 19:16
south africa are tired too; zero one
June 16, 2010 at 19:27
Why doesnt it breach through the ole PITA support @#$
June 16, 2010 at 19:29
was there a news release i didnt knw about?cos the gpd/usd just had a major drop.cos i took some pips out of it but i caught the train late.did any 1?
June 16, 2010 at 19:31
Selling on rallies ?
June 16, 2010 at 19:29
EURCHF right back up, testing the 1.4300 level, but there should be decent resistance into the 1.4310 area. Judging by the feeling the last few days, it appears selling on rallies could be the play.
June 16, 2010 at 19:52
could be the play as long as the SNB is not pushing up. I remember almost got my account wiped out not so long ago. now reading your 1.43 just got shocked a little *hahahaha* you ment 1.40 I suppose?
June 16, 2010 at 19:35
Dommage, I let the bird escape …
June 16, 2010 at 19:55
Changed my avatar to real pic ;)
June 16, 2010 at 20:00
well thats the 1st time its closed below 1.2310 in 7 hours! your pitchfork thing might be on later zubair
June 16, 2010 at 20:07
HA HA LOLZ. S&P500 might break that pitchfork. it is still valid. couldn’t break yet. I think Mr.Bernake speech will change the environment tonight. :-)
June 16, 2010 at 20:03
pls some 1 look at gbp usd
June 16, 2010 at 20:19
nice drop.. and EU forgot to follow it :)
June 16, 2010 at 20:13
Correct me if i’m wrong. I Just saw a head and shoulder pattern in M15, which has been broken and it is retesting the upper level. I think the BULLS are tired now. Just my view
June 16, 2010 at 20:24
could be..i’ve been trying little shorts for the last 2 hours, stops a BE could have has a few pips if was scalping
June 16, 2010 at 20:18
Why GPBUSD sinking like that?!!
June 16, 2010 at 20:23
@little good question,been asking the same but no 1 seems to know
June 16, 2010 at 20:24
because there was a Doji in H4 chart. check it right now
June 16, 2010 at 20:26
yes and one in the Euro 4h too but no follow………….
June 16, 2010 at 20:36
it went down about 100 pip!! what a fire doji!! I think there is some other reason plus that doji
June 16, 2010 at 20:42
other reason is Divergence in Stochastic in H4
June 16, 2010 at 21:03
hear what you are saying Zubair, but the divergence didnt cause it, merely reflected it surely
June 16, 2010 at 21:08
Another reason was this “BP Cancels Dividend to Set Aside $20 Billion for Spill-Compensation Fund ”
thank you,
Zubair
June 16, 2010 at 20:28
might be interesting to see if breaks S1
June 16, 2010 at 20:24
mon ami bon niut a demain :)
June 16, 2010 at 20:24
nuit
June 16, 2010 at 20:34
poor old south africa…
June 16, 2010 at 20:44
@ZUBAIR
Do you observe anything on the charts my friend? I cant see anything (Yet) but the M30 techn.indicators showing a Sell advise ?, see here below:
Technical IndicatorsTime: 16.06.10 20:42 GMT
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 50.045 Neutral
STOCH(9,6) 28.548 Sell
STOCHRSI(14) 35.075 Sell
MACD(12,26) -0.0001 Sell
ADX(14) 17.843 Neutral
Williams %R -69.767 Sell
Name Value Action
CCI(14) -35.048 Neutral
ATR(14) 0.0018 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0 Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator 47.413 Sell
ROC -0.049 Sell
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.0005 Buy
Buy: 1 Sell: 6 Neutral: 4 Indicators Summary: STRONG SELL
June 16, 2010 at 20:46
Moving Averages however still in Buy advise :)
June 16, 2010 at 20:48
i’m watching divergence in H4. I think it will tumble down in the coming hours
June 16, 2010 at 20:53
Good to see the handsome young man again :)
June 16, 2010 at 20:55
AHEM AHEM!! btw who is handsome? :D
Thank you. :)
June 16, 2010 at 20:48
– The Pound is falling sharply across the board, weakened after BP canceled its first-quarter dividend. GBP/USD broke below 1.4750 and fell to 1.4725 hitting a fresh intra-day low. To the downside immediate support levels lie at 1.4700 and below at 1.4680 (June 15 low). The pair has fallen more than a hundred pips in the last three hours.
EUR/GBP broke above 0.8330 and jumped to 0.8356. The pair is approaching to weekly highs that lie at 0.8358.
GBP/JPY weakened considerably in the last hours and is nearing daily lows that lie at 134.50 after being unable to hold above 135.00.
June 16, 2010 at 20:48
“The Pound is falling sharply across the board, weakened after BP canceled its first-quarter dividend. GBP/USD broke below 1.4750 and fell to 1.4725 hitting a fresh intra-day low. To the downside immediate support levels lie at 1.4700 and below at 1.4680 (June 15 low). The pair has fallen more than a hundred pips in the last three hours”
June 16, 2010 at 20:50
Same article :)