Recap: End of the week PipHutters. I didn’t trade EUR/USD much this week per the PipHut strategy as the setups just weren’t appealing enough, but my trading with other pairs was fantastic. Yesterday was a great trading day for myself personally, and the best part was that both the first and last trades were initiated via candlestick signals. First was the GBP/USD long that I alerted everyone to in yesterday’s comments (Congrats to all who got in): an outside up pattern had developed on the daily charts. I checked the historic performance of that pattern, it panned out and netted me a quick 130+ pips. About 10 trades later (only a couple of which were losses) and the I got another daily candlestick on the AUD/USD. Again I checked the historic performance which looked good and the trade is currently +40 per lot. Add up all the trades in between and it was a good day :).
My only other current open trade is a short on EUR/CHF.
Daily Outlook: It is Friday, of course, so I will be watching from the sidelines but the the charts have some interesting setups to watch today. First up the EUR/USD broke to the upside of it bullish channel resistance yesterday – which it had been trailing under for days – and is currently consolidating above 1.2900. Of course I am long-term bearish on the pair but for the short-term the trend is extremely bullish so if you are day trading then I would continue looking for opportunities to buy on dips and consolidations. The two major technical threats are: 1) return to the longer-term bear trend and 2) overbought levels leading to a short-term bearish correction before continuing to 1.31.
Trading Idea: With the short-term trend to the upside the primary strategy revolves around looking for opportunities to go long on a pullback to 1.2800 area – where the former channel resistance (now support is). Targets from 1.2800 are 1.2825, 1.2855, 1.2885 and 1.2915 for 115 pips profit.
A more conservative trade is to wait for a pullback even further to the 1.2680 support zone with targets back up to 1.2900 for over 200 pips TP.
Finally the most aggressive trade would be to look for a long in the 1.2875 area which shows some support on the 1h charts for another stab at the 1.2950 resistance.
Happy pipping and have a great weekend! I’ll have a premium update for you on Monday!
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July 16, 2010 at 16:42
hi @Johnny I mean.. :-)
@Johnny I went short from 1.2700 and now i’m waiting to see 1.2700 again:-(
do you think we can see it next week
July 16, 2010 at 17:31
Dear friend, If I understand you well you still have an open trade Short E/U running since 1,2700 ?
And you hope its coming down soon to close out somewhere near that level ?
I cant tell you what to do, you have to make that up for yourself.
Remember that about only just over a month or so ago we were at 1,19/1,20 levels. And most FX Pro’s and trader were then already targeting 1,16/1,15. Even some mentioned a parity. But insted we ended up here were we’re now, 1,30 touched/breached!
If you ask me, will we be seeing 1,27 by next week already? I dont think so. But its just my view.
GL
July 16, 2010 at 17:41
ask “royalities” for every question ‘(10 pips )and dont forget me!!!!
July 16, 2010 at 17:47
No Sahara, its a nice idea but I am not like that :)
I think the Big guys are soon going home (Or any other ‘secrect’ place?) and we may not see the big move I am waiting for today anymore.
So far 2900/2915 level keeping good. Lets see :)
July 16, 2010 at 17:52
of course just joking; iam waiting for the big ruch my station is near 34 i m home ….enjoy your self and take a lot of pips flowers are expensive in this season!!!
July 16, 2010 at 18:20
always use a STOP LOSS!
July 16, 2010 at 16:43
ibtimes.com- “The pair has shot up to the 1.2950 level and forecasts are for a prolonged bullish run to the next resistance level of 1.3100. This resistance level coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the long term downward trend that began in December of 2009.
“Current momentum is against the dollar as both the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD have recently broken major bearish trend lines and have begun a sharp reversal higher.”
July 16, 2010 at 16:48
please can someone @mark or @johnny tell me why we are impatient with positives trades and very very patient negative trades
July 16, 2010 at 17:04
@maherka. You have pinpointed a problem that many in the world’s moneymarkets have. In the past when USD experienced negative signs it was seen as a global (USD=reserve currency) problem. USD being the barometer.
Thus during periods of stress, money flowed to the dollar (risk aversion) because of the depth of the US economy.
Lately this appears to have changed.
I have read that central bankers started to diversify and instead of buying USD they invest in gold (China, India) and to a lesser extent in commodity currencies (AUD,CAD).
So to avert risk one can never be sure if it would lead to a stronger dollar or vice versa.
This is my take.
July 16, 2010 at 17:24
@pal1 you are absolutely right, it came into focus recently after china unpeged its currency from the USD, i came into an article today shedding light on this matter,
“Gold futures fell the most in two weeks on speculation that the euro’s rebound against the dollar reduced demand for the precious metal as a haven against European debt concerns.”
i guess that the USD might still be considered a “haven”, but with growing concerns about deflation and a slowing of its recovery, investors are looking for “safer bets”.
July 16, 2010 at 17:55
Well said @pal1
July 16, 2010 at 17:57
Good day to you Mark. Almost lunch time at your end :)
July 16, 2010 at 18:01
Just ate :)
July 16, 2010 at 18:01
AUDUSD candlestick trade closed for 100 pips.
July 16, 2010 at 18:07
100 pips A/U pair alone! So you had your lunch with a glass of Champagne I assume ? :)
July 16, 2010 at 18:23
a little too early for the champagne ;)
July 16, 2010 at 18:04
hello MARK why you ve been SHORT on ECHF please thank you!
July 16, 2010 at 18:14
@brave heart. i realy had to login because of u. i must tell u the truth, never ever think in forex, if u du, u’ll loose and that means u’re speculating and speculators only have the chnaces of luck. there are many factors driving the currency u’re trading and that is beyond ur scope of understnding if am right. most os the moves u see in forex are being carried out by the proffessional institutions opearating on large volumes, u’re only benefitting from them. so whether it will return to 2700 next week is a question u shud ask the profffessional. please clost the position. sml losses is better, dnt be decieved by the indicators, kos u shud not be surprised that by the time stocastics and rsi will drop, price may not drop much and by the time it start moving again, itmay be another push to the 4000s. this is the business u’tre into. always use stop losses, if u loosssmall today, oprtinties still exist in themarket tomorrow that u will recover the little loss than hoping it will come back only to realise that ur euity is alomst gone. please close nao. this is my advise for u. even if it comes to it next week, if u’re discipline nao, whne it happens in the future time, u will be discilline to accept it early andalways remember, conditons chnages in the market evryday.
July 16, 2010 at 18:22
EURCHF short closed for -35 pips, have a great weekend everyone!
July 16, 2010 at 18:24
You too Mark, enjoy your weekend.
July 16, 2010 at 18:51
can we have a cup of champagne with50pips or we wait 100
July 16, 2010 at 18:58
By the barrel is better :)
July 16, 2010 at 19:08
have a nice weekend see you monday!!!
July 16, 2010 at 19:16
Take care Sahara, and dont forget to milk the Camels afore you go to bed :)
July 16, 2010 at 19:13
@johnny
Nice to see you buy in bulk.
Have a great weekend guys.
July 16, 2010 at 19:16
Enjoy your weekend Jenny (Hope its gonna be a great one)
Bye for now and looking forward to see you soon again (Can hardly wait for that actually :) )
The Flowerman
July 16, 2010 at 22:57
this is a family of pipies off for a weekend retreat later to storm the fx world,cheerz
July 17, 2010 at 00:59
here’s hoping everyone has a great weekend and much success for the rest of the week :)
July 17, 2010 at 05:37
Week ended for the Aussie with a nice inverted H/S.
Good weekend for all
July 17, 2010 at 06:17
On the Daily
July 17, 2010 at 14:36
Worth notice that the usd/jpy trend is much a much smoother downtrend than the gbp/usd, with a harder fall and a larger price per pip and usually a smaller spread.Good hunting
July 19, 2010 at 04:04
EURUSD has reached the upper boundary of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. Minor consolidation of uptrend would more likely be seen in a couple of days, and the trading range would be within 1.2750-1.3006. Support is at the lower boundary of the channel, now at 1.2680, as long as the channel support holds, uptrend is expected to resume and a break above 1.3006 could signal resumption of uptrend.
July 19, 2010 at 04:57
@pipsqueek, good morning or goodnite to you ,anyway thanks for this review starter , it is wonderful getting to know it even before Mark signal is out.thanks
July 19, 2010 at 08:06
EUR/USD was most exciting for us today. i mean as many as we are that traded the currecy pair.it just went as predicted . i still see EUR/USD SHOOTING higher above 1.3005. for an addtional 60pips.