Recap: End of the week PipHutters. I didn’t trade EUR/USD much this week per the PipHut strategy as the setups just weren’t appealing enough, but my trading with other pairs was fantastic. Yesterday was a great trading day for myself personally, and the best part was that both the first and last trades were initiated via candlestick signals. First was the GBP/USD long that I alerted everyone to in yesterday’s comments (Congrats to all who got in): an outside up pattern had developed on the daily charts. I checked the historic performance of that pattern, it panned out and netted me a quick 130+ pips. About 10 trades later (only a couple of which were losses) and the I got another daily candlestick on the AUD/USD. Again I checked the historic performance which looked good and the trade is currently +40 per lot. Add up all the trades in between and it was a good day :).
My only other current open trade is a short on EUR/CHF.
Daily Outlook: It is Friday, of course, so I will be watching from the sidelines but the the charts have some interesting setups to watch today. First up the EUR/USD broke to the upside of it bullish channel resistance yesterday – which it had been trailing under for days – and is currently consolidating above 1.2900. Of course I am long-term bearish on the pair but for the short-term the trend is extremely bullish so if you are day trading then I would continue looking for opportunities to buy on dips and consolidations. The two major technical threats are: 1) return to the longer-term bear trend and 2) overbought levels leading to a short-term bearish correction before continuing to 1.31.
Trading Idea: With the short-term trend to the upside the primary strategy revolves around looking for opportunities to go long on a pullback to 1.2800 area – where the former channel resistance (now support is). Targets from 1.2800 are 1.2825, 1.2855, 1.2885 and 1.2915 for 115 pips profit.
A more conservative trade is to wait for a pullback even further to the 1.2680 support zone with targets back up to 1.2900 for over 200 pips TP.
Finally the most aggressive trade would be to look for a long in the 1.2875 area which shows some support on the 1h charts for another stab at the 1.2950 resistance.
Happy pipping and have a great weekend! I’ll have a premium update for you on Monday!
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July 16, 2010 at 10:54
Good for GELECTRIC!
July 16, 2010 at 11:10
(RTTNews) – Banking stress tests in Europe are unlikely to reveal any major catastrophes, Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker told Austrian newspaper Kurier.
According to an interview posted the newspaper’s website on Friday, Juncker said the tests are based on reality and there cannot be any euphemisms. He noted that balanced public finances are a prerequisite of growth.
Juncker, who is also the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, noted that euro is not in danger and no country wants to leave from the currency bloc. He said the Eurozone needs a more stringent stability pact and the region’s financial markets can’t behave as before. He blamed financial markets for their behavior as if nothing happened led to financial crisis.
A total of 91 banks across Europe are being tested to assess whether they will be able to withstand future shocks in the financial sector. The results are due to be published on July 23.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet last week said publication of the detailed results of a harmonized pan-European stress test is an important step in the right direction. According to him, these tests will increase transparency and enhance investors’ confidence in Europe’s banking sector.
July 16, 2010 at 11:28
is any one long in aud/usd
July 16, 2010 at 11:37
Long E/U, Short U/J and Short E/Chf but not in A/U sorry :)
July 16, 2010 at 11:30
CPI coming out in about one hour from now !
July 16, 2010 at 11:37
i’m also waiting for it Johny :)
July 16, 2010 at 11:34
am i lucky or just made silly action?
i havent trade for 4 days recently..all i remember was i close all my position..but just now, when i open my mt4, i discover i’ve a pos open at 1.2850?? =.=”
it seems like i overlooked the day i close all pos..
haha..so, it’just silly action done or?..nevertheless..profit..=.=”
July 16, 2010 at 11:35
sory..typo error it’s 2580..
July 16, 2010 at 11:39
Treasuries Rise as Asian Stocks Decline Before U.S. Consumer Prices Report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-16/treasuries-head-for-weekly-gain-before-data-to-show-consumer-prices-fell.html
July 16, 2010 at 11:45
@KUMAR And added G/J short to it :)
July 16, 2010 at 11:48
im expecting more bullish momentum after the CPI release. Because Inflation is predicted to decrease more in the last4 decades this time
July 16, 2010 at 11:52
“There is very little inflation pressure at present against a backdrop of no more than a moderate economic recovery,”
“Low inflationary pressures may confirm some concerns of a double-dip in the U.S. economy, and that’s supportive for Treasuries, Treasuries benefit in bouts of risk aversion as investors seek the safest assets.”
we might see 1.3 today,however price should relieve some overbought pressure before climbing, market sentiment is very bullish.
July 16, 2010 at 11:52
hello every one, i am working a system to trade with 0% margin when a trend is confirmed. Will keep you posted if result is satisfactory. Thanks for DEMO,today for me is no trading day like the Pip MAster so i am using free dollar account to trouble shoot the efficacy of the system. GL to all
July 16, 2010 at 12:11
@piphut
Hi Mark,
What is your target for the inverse H&S
http://img594.imageshack.us/f/todaytrade.gif/
July 16, 2010 at 12:22
Hi all got in the long E/U made some good pips. Have a good weekend all.
July 16, 2010 at 12:25
All week I’ve missed the ride with the EUR – I guess I’m still a newbie!! You guys seem to be doing very well.
July 16, 2010 at 12:30
US June CPI is -0.1% MoM vs. exp. -0.1% and prior -0.2%; core CPI is +0.2% MoM vs. exp. +0.1% and prior +0.1%
July 16, 2010 at 12:32
Hey I have missed my share. Do not feel bad.
July 16, 2010 at 12:44
that s forex you cant in all the time you will miss more like all of us you will have another situation that you wont miss…..
July 16, 2010 at 12:36
EURUSD: Maintains Bullish Momentum, Targets 1.3000/93.
EURUSD:Having rallied strongly and tested the 1.2954 level which is slightly below the 1.3000 level highlighted in our Thursday analysis, risk of a retest of that level still remains as evidenced by its present bid tone. However, caution should be exercised as EUR could face a strong resistance before or at that level is likely to turn it back down. Conversely, if that level breaks ways will be paved for further strength towards its May 10’10 high at 1.5093. On the downside, a violation of the 1.2721 and the 1.2466 levels will have to occur to halt its current upside momentum and clear the way for more downside pressure towards its .50. Fib Ret (1.1875-1.2466 rally) at 1.2169 and the 1.2162 levels, its Jun 14’10 low. Below there will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2000 level and then the 1.1875 level, its 2010 low. A cap is expected at that level to turn the pair back up again if tested.
July 16, 2010 at 12:39
GM Piphuters
July 16, 2010 at 12:39
US CPI reflects deflation as expected.
July 16, 2010 at 12:46
Short EG LongGU???
July 16, 2010 at 12:52
Electricite de France SA, Europe’s biggest power producer, has been offered more than 5 billion pounds ($7.7 billion) for its U.K. distribution network, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
July 16, 2010 at 13:01
Pound is ecpected to gain after that news i guess.
July 16, 2010 at 13:03
EDF receive one from australia second from Honggong(edf sell a part gaz distrub in GB)sorry for my eng i cant expline more
July 16, 2010 at 13:33
the info is in bloomberg
July 16, 2010 at 12:52
right now shorting EU from 1.2993 doing got a few pips but have to be careful could turn anytime, 15min showing next candle should be down, but when I see it showing white will get out.
July 16, 2010 at 12:54
I need a some pips bad – I can’t seem to find a correct trade this week at all!!!
July 16, 2010 at 12:59
read over Mark’s stuff, traders said that book by Ed Ponsi helped a lot, for me I had to learn how to use the different time frames to know when to get in and when to get out. Others have just asked questions here and tradders will answer. Okay see a shite candle developing on 15 min have to see if I need to get out.
July 16, 2010 at 12:56
going against the trend in such a strong bullish outlook is risky, current movement might just be to release some overbought pressure. as zubair123 said, US CPI shows deflation hinting at a possible U.S double recession.
July 16, 2010 at 13:10
I know I just do it for fun with 1 micro lot, and to test my skill in the worst situation, I am out now and will go long when enter again if the charts say so sometimes what news say and what really happens is up to the charts I am still learning that no matter what the analysts say or news do not argue with the charts.
July 16, 2010 at 13:19
Your trading matters only in FX, not your lot size and money. If you are good in your traing skills(both technical and fundamental) then you are a good forex trader. No matter how much money you are utilizing in trading but your trading should be perfect.
July 16, 2010 at 13:26
you are right I am getting there did pretty good this week I am focusing on building skill I do not want to be stressed out about money when my skill is good enough I can always apply enough money to make what I want. I traded the big moves twice this week, I missed out on this one so just been trading as market came down some and back up, but did get a good amount of pips with CT.
July 16, 2010 at 12:57
bloomberg-The dollar dropped to its lowest level this year against the yen on signs the world’s largest economy is losing momentum.
July 16, 2010 at 13:37
hi mark i traded 0.05 lots long on the eur /usd at price 109.907 and stop loss 109.200 and take profit 110.033 ,i opened at 06.07.2010 00:55 and closed on 2010.07.06 02:45 and i lost -40.42 theaccount was micro account,it was a terrible blow some one please help me out.
July 16, 2010 at 13:55
those are not the right prices for EU that is for the YEN or cross.
July 16, 2010 at 14:00
seems like for now the bottom is about 1.2950 for the EU?????? price should go up from here for a while see what the next 4HR candle inidicates.
July 16, 2010 at 14:04
spoke too see but I got out at 1.2950 so that is great pips for today.
July 16, 2010 at 14:07
am most greatful for your close observation and correction you r quite right its the yen
July 16, 2010 at 14:07
levels below 1.2937 could indicate price moving towards the pivot @ 1.2890, daily rsi levels are still relatively high
July 16, 2010 at 14:13
looks like it might make it back to Mark’s aggressive trade at 1.2875 I think maybe next 4Hr will shed some light
July 16, 2010 at 14:21
bloomberg.com- Confidence among U.S. consumers slumped in July to the lowest level in a year, signaling the biggest part of the economy is losing momentum.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 66.5, the lowest since August 2009, from 76 in June. The reading was lower than the most pessimistic forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey with a median projection of 74.
July 16, 2010 at 14:34
2925 sup will probably bring a bounce up again. Lets see :)
July 16, 2010 at 14:34
If Today’s Candle closes bearish it my signal a resumption of the bearish pattern. anyone here agrees,as the pair is skating the bollinger band and is over bought on the dailey chart.
July 16, 2010 at 15:01
Filled fuel tank fully…May want to travel long distance ? :)
July 16, 2010 at 15:06
that hammer on the 1H chart is resting on the 100 day MA, price is flirting with 1.2937, if a candle closes below we might see a test of the pivot @ 1.2890
July 16, 2010 at 15:10
is it a “rawcheeh” hammer!!!!!
July 16, 2010 at 15:08
USDCAD forms a shooting star on hourly candles. This candlestick is usually indicative of a top and potential reversal. It should be followed by a down candle to confirm.
July 16, 2010 at 15:10
Swissy gets beaten all over :)
July 16, 2010 at 15:24
nice johnny yesterday i asked RALPH (he is from swi) if can asked suissbank why ECHF stay on3440 i think he has “do” the message!!!
July 16, 2010 at 15:29
Could be he did that Sahara :)
July 16, 2010 at 15:30
(RTTNews) – While selling pressure has waned from earlier in the session, stocks continue to see considerable weakness in late morning trading on Friday. The major averages are stuck firmly in negative territory after moving sharply lower in early trading.
The weakness in the markets reflects a negative reaction to the latest batch of earnings news as well as a report from Reuters and University of Michigan showing a substantial deterioration in consumer sentiment in the month of July.
Banking stocks are turning in some of the market’s worst performances, with Bank of America (BAC) leading the way lower after reporting second quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates but reporting weaker than expected revenues.
Significant weakness is also visible among gold stocks, which are moving lower along with the price of the precious metal. Most of the other major sectors are also under pressure, with railroad, networking, oil service, and housing stocks posting substantial losses.
The major averages have moved to the downside in the past few minutes, hitting new lows for the session. The Dow is down 186.87 points or 1.8 percent at 10,172.44, the Nasdaq is down 45.90 points or 2 percent at 2,203.18 and the S&P 500 is down 22.25 points or 2 percent at 1,074.23.
July 16, 2010 at 15:48
yesterday Market mooved after EUR MARK cloosed
July 16, 2010 at 15:49
Right now i am suffering from over-pips… I think i need a break… How’s everyone’s trading today? @johnny, @Zubair @everyone?
July 16, 2010 at 16:04
I guess you mean to say you have a bag full of pips to many? Well, maybe someone wants to come and collect it from you? :)
July 16, 2010 at 16:06
too late johnny i sent someone!!
July 16, 2010 at 15:52
EUR/USD back below the 1.2920 level, but the 100-day mov avg has dropped to 1.2913/17, depending on your charting source. A daily close below this 1.2910/20 level would suggest that a short-term top has been seen in EUR/USD.
July 16, 2010 at 16:09
@johnny
You should also have a bag full of pips…lol
What are your thoughts on where the E/U might close? And do you think it has topped out or are you still looking for 1.31? Just curious.
I hope you have some great plans for the weekend!
July 16, 2010 at 16:15
@PIPSQUEEK
http://www.justourpictures.com/roses/imgs/red%20rose%201.jpg
July 16, 2010 at 16:21
@johnny
How sweet! I haven’t seen roses since I cant remember when.
Wine, roses, any other tricks up your sleeve?
July 16, 2010 at 16:24
A fancy dinner with some violins in the back ground, and this time NO candlesticks but candlelight (Dim, very dim…) :)
July 16, 2010 at 16:29
You better be careful, this lonely girl might fall in love. I will leave it up to my imagination as to what happens after dinner…..lol
July 16, 2010 at 16:12
is an outside down patternt on GBPUSD (H4)?
July 16, 2010 at 16:12
29.04 is important we ve gone up from here!! let see the power of this area
July 16, 2010 at 16:13
hi @Johnny how are you :-)
@Johnny I went long from 1.2700 and now i’m waiting to see 1.2700 again
do you think we can see it next week?
July 16, 2010 at 16:19
I am still bullish on E/U and think we will be seeing 1,30 and above soon again.
Going below 2885 will change my mind.
Lets see :)
July 16, 2010 at 16:20
On EU H/S daily, the shoulder line (using line chart, not candles) falls at approx 1.2420.
From there down to the inverted head(turning point) = 507 pips (approx)
From 2420 shoulder to current high = 507 pips
So maybe we have seen the max of EU’s up move.
July 16, 2010 at 16:25
nice PAL please can look candle on 8h EU and on daily dollar index may be y are on the right way !thanks
July 16, 2010 at 16:25
SOTD on forex.com strategist Todd Gordon says he is forecasting risk aversion and a stronger dollar? Anybody out there agree? I don’t think I do just yet.
July 16, 2010 at 16:28
as i said i follow dindex (3days down) but today another candle
July 16, 2010 at 16:30
there are no signs indicating a strong dollar, Confidence among U.S. consumers is down, U.S deflation is looming, The dollar dropped to its lowest level this year against the yen signaling that the U.S economy is losing momentum & the recovery is sluggish @ best
July 16, 2010 at 16:33
yes my friend it s not better here in europe (banks are in diffucult situation)
July 16, 2010 at 16:35
Right said Fred…he…sorrry…said Maherka :)
But your story is not far off from the truth.
July 16, 2010 at 16:40
just my humble analysis :) & Fred B. is an old collage buddy :)
July 16, 2010 at 16:41
johnny on the states how many banks are closed ;here all of them are in a nice health ;of course europeen banks monney are on the moon ;;where is the truth!!!not on the bank!!!