Recap: Pair bounced around yesterday, giving us a false breakout above 1.3030 before returning to the 1.30 range where it seems to be comfortable for the moment. Our conservative signal from yesterday was not hit, if you took the secondary trade (long above 3030) then you either are still in the trade or were stopped out depending on your SL placement. Obviously the aggressive short below 2915 never was triggered either.
Some simple “buy low, sell high” strategies would have worked wonders for scalping yesterday.
Daily Outlook: All that bouncing up and down has giving us a bearish looking doji on the daily GMT charts. I see this more as confirmation that 1.31 will be a good area to short in rather than a signal to go short right at the moment. That being said I do have a single lot short open from the 3015 area to challenge 2915.
Don’t forget to check the forex calendar to avoid event risk and to check candlestick alerts for good intraday trading opportunities.
Trading Idea: 1.2950 is today’s key level – I am bullish above and bearish below. Primary trade will be long near 1.2950 support with targets at 1.2975, 1.30, 1.3030 and 1.3060 for110 pips profit.
An aggressive short would be to sell on a sustained break below 1.2950 on the 4h charts, with targets down to 1.2915 and 1.2815 for 135 pips profit.
Happy pipping!
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July 28, 2010 at 08:54
thank you ttom
July 28, 2010 at 08:55
KING SAYS SAYS BANKS BALANCE SHEETS `STILL RECOVERING’ *KING SAYS FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE BECOME MORE VOLATILE
July 28, 2010 at 08:56
this happened everytime King has spoken since 2009
July 28, 2010 at 09:01
GU has dropped everytime, there are more speakers rto come today including the lone desenter seneker who wishes to raise the rates so it may be quite volitile
July 28, 2010 at 09:01
KING > – Considerable time before can call situation normal
July 28, 2010 at 09:01
GBP=USD
Bearish AB=CD H4
http://forexrainbow.com/files/8o3k6y01xpo7fu2ojiw1.gif
July 28, 2010 at 09:08
very nice..i think you posted a a gartley on the 1hr also?
July 28, 2010 at 10:46
Yes You’re right.
But The Pattern finished
July 28, 2010 at 09:08
anything on the daily for these things?
July 28, 2010 at 09:04
look at $chf
July 28, 2010 at 09:04
*KING SAYS BIGGEST RISKS TO U.K. ARE FROM INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
July 28, 2010 at 09:06
i will come back at NY, let this chop work its way out and settle down
July 28, 2010 at 09:40
You’ll miss all the fun.
July 28, 2010 at 09:10
BOE MILES: Absent wage inflation/above target CPI unsustainable
July 28, 2010 at 09:11
Euro-JPY
Daily Bullish Head And Shoulder
http://forexrainbow.com/files/a97kxpeambxpw7azhcg8.gif
July 28, 2010 at 13:12
here are some more of those you like
http://www.forex13.com/2010/07/gbpusd-chart-28-july-time-to-some.html
July 28, 2010 at 13:13
but that one you posted is a horrible head ahd shoulders, the shoulder if far to close to the head on the left
July 28, 2010 at 13:14
its closer to a doible bottom than a shoulder
July 28, 2010 at 13:21
Thank your tips
but I believe that it’s right
July 28, 2010 at 09:21
@zubair123 what is ur TP on E/S
July 28, 2010 at 09:26
E/S?
July 28, 2010 at 09:28
yes
July 28, 2010 at 09:41
what E/S??
July 28, 2010 at 09:43
i mean E/U
July 28, 2010 at 09:52
1.31 physcological level.
July 28, 2010 at 10:21
BTW i’m expecting 1.31. But currently i’m not in a trade. and i’m flat till a clear momentum
July 28, 2010 at 10:22
Portugal sells EUR600 mln 3.6% bonds with a bid/cover of 3.1, average yield of 3.621%
July 28, 2010 at 10:24
German Consumer Confidence Index, which was announced as 3.9 yesterday, has exceeded 3.5 of the expectation in a large way.
Also, Deutsche Bank AG, UBS, Societe Generale , top banks had good closing of accounts.
Spain government bonds tender (3?6 months) were procured by lower costs compared to last time.
In addition, the positive materials were shown across the board for EUR, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision softened some of proposed capital and liquidity rules.
As a result, EUR/USD has once risen up to near 1.3045 dollars.
July 28, 2010 at 10:37
GM everyone and thanks for the signal Mark
July 28, 2010 at 10:51
very very very boring day for the EU
July 28, 2010 at 12:04
I don’t see any sustain break above 1.3030 in 4 hours chart, it is a long day, hope NY will move things around.
July 28, 2010 at 12:04
Hi mark and all the piphuters.
Looking at the EURSD 4hr chart, it has been forming high high for quit few days. The last 9 candle formed range, where is the EURUSD heading to? has it done with the upward?
July 28, 2010 at 12:09
ForexLive European Wrap: http://www.forexlive.com
EUR/USD opened around 1.3000. Rallied very slowly early. Reports had sell orders layered from 1.3020 through to 1.3050 with stops through 1.3060. We got eventually to 1.3041 before stalling. It kinda had a certain eventuality about it.
Talk had Russia notable seller around the highs. China sold cable early around highs, so they might have been in selling EUR/USD as well, but didn’t confirmation of such.
Asian sovereign (not China) buying has infact been seen on dips below 1.3000. Talk of an attempt going to be made in early US trading to bring large 1.2850 option interest into play before expiry later today. All I can say is good luck with that one. We sit presently at 1.3000.
July 28, 2010 at 12:14
keeping in view Mark’s signal EU must test 1.2950 before going up!!
It hasnt tested the 1.2950 so far
July 28, 2010 at 12:26
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 5min time
July 28, 2010 at 12:22
why is it so quite here? piphut never used to b that silent :|
July 28, 2010 at 12:27
it is quite because the pairs are in a tight range.
July 28, 2010 at 12:24
anybody have an idea about OIL trend???
July 28, 2010 at 12:27
Bull tried to increase volatility but bear didn’t give chance to do it.
Kept the value in small fluctuation. That’s great for bear
July 28, 2010 at 12:30
Tell me about. Another day of no-show for E/U.
This could only mean it’s consolidating now, and getting ready to burst one of these days.
July 28, 2010 at 12:49
What………………is going on here?????
No Eur strength at al.
July 28, 2010 at 12:50
Bear rally! Hope to see 1.2950
July 28, 2010 at 12:50
News is negative for Usd then why Eur is going down???
July 28, 2010 at 12:53
news is only 51% correlated =) fahad.
July 28, 2010 at 13:08
Factor changes.
Right now it’s all about Risk appetite. Bad US news – bears on EUR/USD.
I know…it’s crazy and confusing. That’s why don’t rely too much on news. Just go where the trend goes after confirmation.
July 28, 2010 at 12:52
EUR/USD testing below the 55-hour mov. avg at 1.2980/84 area; increasing signs of a stall in the pair, but need to see a decisive move below 1.2950 to shift the focus lower
July 28, 2010 at 12:52
e/j long 113.7
pure r/r trade.
July 28, 2010 at 12:54
Is that my favorite pattern in EUR/USD? – http://www.forexlive.com
EUR/USD is coming lower again, now down to 1.2980. A double top could be forming; we’ll know if 1.2952 breaks.
July 28, 2010 at 12:56
EUR/USD testing below the 55-hour mov. avg at 1.2980/84 area; increasing signs of a stall in the pair, but need to see a decisive move below 1.2950 to shift the focus lower
July 28, 2010 at 13:01
I don’t want to zee red cansles when I am long. Not this time.
July 28, 2010 at 13:06
thank you all for your postings I am learning so much.
July 28, 2010 at 13:13
Eur/Usd presently finding support at 55-day-MA currently at 1.2975, if breaks then we will see 1.2950
July 28, 2010 at 13:25
JUST SEEING CONSOLIDATION RIGHT NOW, CHOP AND CONSOLIDATION
July 28, 2010 at 13:26
Fed Beige Book and RBNZ are next
July 28, 2010 at 13:27
1154GMT upside bias while above 1.2980 55hr sma towards 1.3050 initially, above may see to 1.3095. Below 1.2980 could test 1.2945/50 & even 1.2915.
July 28, 2010 at 14:08
you do get around the sites dont you
http://getforexalerts.com/2010/07/daily-technical-analysis-30/
July 28, 2010 at 13:28
A double top would be great,but it would have been nicer to see something like this around 1,31.Plus I bet the market will run out of steam in a couple of hours anyways.
As far as I remember we need a huge bear candle rushing thru the 1.2950 support in order to see strong selling setiment and confirm the double top.right?
July 28, 2010 at 13:30
scalping time , entry 2983 , tp 25 pips , sl 12 pips
July 28, 2010 at 13:32
12 pips is not a SL, its called a donation monsan
July 28, 2010 at 13:33
no discuss that sl 12 pip
July 28, 2010 at 13:39
move sl to 2998 of buy at 2983
July 28, 2010 at 13:42
move sl 3005 buy order 2983
July 28, 2010 at 13:46
moved to 3003 sl buy order 2983
July 28, 2010 at 13:48
good job.cant loose now :)
July 28, 2010 at 13:57
lost momentum upward
July 28, 2010 at 14:15
well thats range bounding :( I hope you got out with a profit and thats all thet matters
July 28, 2010 at 13:32
e/g long .8320 another great r/r trade
July 28, 2010 at 14:50
this is looking good for you..nice trade so far
July 28, 2010 at 13:39
Right!!!!
July 28, 2010 at 13:42
There is a bearish doji on the 4h chart followed by a forming hanging man or hammer 20min left.anyone got any clues on this or seen that before?
July 28, 2010 at 13:58
I think EURGBP is worth to watch now …..
July 28, 2010 at 14:02
EURUSD Offers expected ahead of the $1.3050 area watch for sovereign supply ahead of there
July 28, 2010 at 14:04
Usdchf also inching towards the buy zone
July 28, 2010 at 14:09
I think USDCHF is still bearish.
July 28, 2010 at 14:12
until it reaches the buy zone yes, all stops at 0440 for a move towards 0620 then towards the 0800′s
July 28, 2010 at 14:14
buy zone is 0530
July 28, 2010 at 14:40
i am long all stops at 0440
July 28, 2010 at 15:05
+20 so far
SL set at +1 will take it again lower if taken out
July 28, 2010 at 14:14
Yup… sounds great.
July 28, 2010 at 15:58
+40 now
July 28, 2010 at 14:13
are you short?
July 28, 2010 at 14:15
Yes…already 30 pips. But it’s bouncing at S1 now.
I’m only trading a penny trade cuz I’m live-testing an indicator. This indicator turned bearish a couple of hours ago, and true enough…that indication was good for 30 pips so far.
July 28, 2010 at 14:16
its nice when things work out that way, pennies add up to nickels and then dimes
July 28, 2010 at 14:17
It is testing S1, while still bullish on 4H charts.
Anything goes…if it breaks this 1.0563 (S1), then we’re changing to bearish.
Your Long entry at 0440 sounds like a great place to long. That should probably be the next turn-around area.
If you’re interested in the indicator, pm me.
July 28, 2010 at 14:17
you just got 10 more
July 28, 2010 at 14:20
Then again 0440 is S4. That’s tough to break through so many 4H supports in one day.
Since I’m testing this indicator, I’m just gonna let the trade play from signal to signal.
July 28, 2010 at 14:20
yeah…wish I was trading a normal dollar lot…LOL
July 28, 2010 at 14:23
confused.buy zone should be 0530 and not 0440 ?
July 28, 2010 at 14:26
You mentioned 0440 earlier. I got confused, you probably meant 0440 as SL, not entry.
1.0524(S2) seems like a better place to Long.
1.0488(S3) would be even better.
But you never know what’s gonna happen today. Got some bad US news…and the stock market is still mixed.
Right now, I’m just trade-testing an trend indicator, which is very.. uhm… indicator-based…not S/R principles.
July 28, 2010 at 14:28
If I were to trade S/R based, it’s concerning that S1(1.0563) has been penetrated. So, bullish sentiments are in danger.
July 28, 2010 at 14:48
i dont use indicators hardly at all, rsi on weekly/daily charts but thats about it, thanks for the offer tho
July 28, 2010 at 14:59
Yeah. I just want to diversify my trading with an automated EA, and EAs can only depend on indicators.
So far, this one is doing well for 45 pips at one point.
Back to S/R, I hope EUR get’s up to 1.3100, and then drop the bomb with tomorrow’s news. Doesn’t all the baking in of Fundies make sense?
July 28, 2010 at 15:23
Hey johnr,
May I ask you which is the indicator you’re testing?
If it’s not a problem for you to share..
Since I’m EA believer (and coder) :-) I’m interested
in such stuff (Indis and so on ..)
Thank you mate.
Many pips
chriz
July 28, 2010 at 14:07
GBPUSD 1mth historic vol (close/close) is now above the equivalent implied contract, which may slow any further near term weakness
July 28, 2010 at 14:38
im short eur gbp myself
July 28, 2010 at 14:40
the reason is on the daily chart its retracement is in the fib 38.2 area ,also i use 21 and 6 day which is at a crossroads
July 28, 2010 at 14:47
Well… EUR is no show again. Tomorrow’s jobless claims are the next big news.