Recap: Well we were looking for longs to buy into the uptrend from yesterday’s signal. The good news is the pair continued north as expected, rising another ~90 pips from low to high. The bad news is the pair never dipped low enough to trigger a long trade. As I always say though better to miss out than to miss your equity.
Daily Outlook: To recap I’m bearish long-term, but we are in a short-term bullish correction right now so I will continue to look for opportunities to long the pair until a valid technical signal appears on the daily charts.
On the short-term charts we are caught in a bullish channel within a bullish channel (see thin blue line between two thick blue lines). The 23.6% retracement of the larger fall from December of 2009 was just broken on the daily chart yesterday, and on top of all of that the bullish channel we are in currently appears to be a bullish consolidation pattern as well. All signs point north.
Candlesticks from the candlestick alert system have been extremely profitable on both the 1h and 30m for the past couple days – they can make a supplement to your strategy.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long, again, near the rising trend support currently at 1.2600 (thin blue line). Long targets from 1.2600 are 1.2625, 1.2655, 1.2685 and 1.2715 for 115 pips profit.
A secondary more conservative trade would be a long off the bottom support (thick blue line) currently at 1.2550 with targets up to 1.2685 for 135 pips profit.
A more aggressive trade would be to go long on a upside break of our bullish consolidation pattern (breaks above the rising resistance – top blue line) as this could be the move to go further north before finally turning back down. If that top line is broken watch for a re-challenge of 1.2770-1.2800 to close the week.
Finally the most aggressive trade would be along on a failure of 1.2635-2650 targeting the top of the channel 1.27-1.2715.
As always use proper money management, never trade with money you can’t afford to lose and happy pipping. Have a great weekend PipHutters!
Quick Links:
Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
Forex Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forex Forums
July 9, 2010 at 11:36
what time did you get in short at ?
July 9, 2010 at 11:48
morning at open of the candle
July 9, 2010 at 11:42
i closed with 100 pips
July 9, 2010 at 11:47
congratz kumar..btw, i read bout u have a indicator that u use alongside mark’s signal..if can, mind share with me plz? :)
July 9, 2010 at 11:49
i have put in pip hut forum under fores systems. first link wont work.. remaining u can download
July 9, 2010 at 11:53
okey..thanx alot..will try experimenting with all indi
July 9, 2010 at 12:13
But is the system for which the link does not work (first link)also downloadable from other links? Sorry I am in the office, so I have not tried to download anything yet, but will do when I get home.
July 9, 2010 at 11:52
how are ure open trades doing and wat time zone are u using kumar
July 9, 2010 at 11:54
Something for the weekend ?
Here is something for the weekend for people that really want to use/test any trading system.
Use MT4′s strategy tester . Load it up set parameters.
Load up the required template and let it run .
Write down any trades that you would have taken using your system. Follow the system rules to the letter and check results.
This not only will give you insight on how to use the system but will also give you a rough indication if the system actually works.
Then next week when trading is live again use system on a DEMO account and foward test it .
If you like it , use it :)
July 9, 2010 at 11:55
an inverted hammer is forming on the 1hr chart.. and 1.2665 has been a very strong support.. maybe go long from here?
still need more confirmation
July 9, 2010 at 12:06
I’m bearish on it at the moment with some reservations. We’re pretty much at the daily trend line joining the high of Dec 09 with high of April 09. As it’s such a long trendline the exact level will vary between charts but my GMT chart has it at about 1.2720 currently. I’m short just below 1.27 following the 4hr GMT pin earlier that closed below 1.27. Concern is the strength of the move up in the past month but I like the trendline and think there is a good chance it will hold, at least for today.
July 9, 2010 at 11:57
@Kumar: the lindencourt system that you kindly shared with this community is optimized for use on the 15m timeframe, according to the author. Why do you use mostly the daily template? Have you tested the lower TF’s as well?
Thx in adavnce for your answer
July 9, 2010 at 12:01
as i do part time trading i feel comfortable with daily and 4 hrs only.. i took little trades in 15 mins but that was also profitable
July 9, 2010 at 12:09
if you are doing so well in forex why do part time?
July 9, 2010 at 12:11
it s simple for me i wait if i can take a trade near the support 26…. than if possible i ll go long after confirmation i understand like that this is my system!!!!
July 9, 2010 at 12:15
Understood, thank you and good trading
July 9, 2010 at 12:22
we are testing 2650 let see before on one hour NY opening on green for the moment!! iwait
July 9, 2010 at 12:29
1.25 it s open i think wich “Door” let s see!!
July 9, 2010 at 12:10
@kumar: thanks for sharing the system, I currently use on 15m chart with good success rate so far.
July 9, 2010 at 12:11
just a suggestion
July 9, 2010 at 12:16
am employed full time.. and still learning forex
July 9, 2010 at 12:13
cubs i have tested the system for past one year then only i have posted to forum..so enjoy trading with out fear if you have gone though the manual completely
July 9, 2010 at 12:16
Kumar, just a quick question:
is the system for which the link does not work (first link)also downloadable from other links?
July 9, 2010 at 12:34
looks like the primary trade is goin into play
July 9, 2010 at 12:35
WHY?
July 9, 2010 at 12:36
SORRY i mean why do you said this?
July 9, 2010 at 12:39
because the rate is closing in to the support of the last head and shoulder.. we still need more confirmation.
read mark’s analysis .. its all there :)
July 9, 2010 at 12:40
ok thanks osama it s clear!
July 9, 2010 at 12:37
Mark’s primary trading idea is a long at 1.2600
July 9, 2010 at 12:39
with confirmation, its pretty bearish right now
July 9, 2010 at 12:48
Getting late on Friday (London market) and it bounced off the daily trend line earlier today to start this fall. Very risky longs now even with a good signal, particularly if this current candle closes in the 1.2610/20 area.
July 9, 2010 at 12:51
so are we heading south? or north as mark mentioned
July 9, 2010 at 12:53
after an ending diagonal finishes as we have seen on the EU the move is quite powerful, so caution is needed for those looking to long without any confirmation
July 9, 2010 at 12:59
what would suitable confirmation be?
July 9, 2010 at 13:05
I’m short but if I wasn’t I’d be turning my PC off now and waiting until Monday before doing anything. Longs look too risky this late in the day and price too low now for a short
July 9, 2010 at 13:04
what is an ending diagnal?
July 9, 2010 at 13:25
hmm thats had to explain, chart tells a better story and there was one posted yesterday and the day before when it was mentioned
July 9, 2010 at 13:04
cable is touching 4 hour bottom trendline from 8th june im long if we get good candle
July 9, 2010 at 13:05
its resting on the outer channel line
July 9, 2010 at 13:06
Lindencourt FX System it’s similar to my system but I’m not using oscillators
July 9, 2010 at 13:10
the system works with very short term perspective????
July 9, 2010 at 13:20
No on M15 it’s completely useless have look on H1 or D1
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=215
July 9, 2010 at 13:25
Dont know this methodology well enough to judge it properly, but according to the author the preferable TF for the “original” system is 15m, not 1H…although he does say that it would work on higher TF’s as well…
This is also according to Kumar’s experience apparently
July 9, 2010 at 13:26
On M15 it’s too much noise
July 9, 2010 at 13:19
whats your method napus
July 9, 2010 at 13:07
Closed my G/U for 30pips 5lots which had panic for me from last 24hrs.Thank god it never reached 5220.I thank u all for supporting me in BS.The trading system by Kumar is very very lagging in signals when trader enter after confirmation it becomes too late and possibly the trend goes opposite way.
July 9, 2010 at 13:18
indicators will do that to you but you also need to remember 4hr and daily need room to breath
develop your own system based on your own trading style, most people that are profitable over time have thier own as anothers is often based on user discretion and not a box one fits all trading system.
if you traded 5 lots on a 6K account then you really need to rethink your greed factor. When I traded a 5 digit account I rarely ever traded 5 full lots let alone a 4 digit. If you wish to remain in forex look at 1 to 3% max ever open at one time.
forex is about capital preservation through proper money management NOT how much money you can make.
July 9, 2010 at 13:27
Why were you panicking? Where did you go short and where was your SL?
July 9, 2010 at 13:30
ouch , thats 60% risk . Too much bud. Try 2%.
This is what ive said about trading if your getting too excited about your losses or your wins then your risking too much .
any yes mostly all systems and indicators are lagging and the action is over by the time you see the signal and price starts to reverse
It all looks great looking back in time .
Which is why I said in a previous post here , do backtests using MT4 strat tester and do imaginary trades over the course of a month or so .
July 9, 2010 at 13:10
ActionForex: Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2555
Despite intra-day marginal rise to 1.2723, as the single currency has retreated from there, suggesting a minor top has been formed and consolidation below there would be seen with mild downside bias for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2603), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around previous support at 1.2553 and bring another upmove.
July 9, 2010 at 13:14
any one long in eur/usd
July 9, 2010 at 13:21
after such a strong move?
its too low to short and move was too strong to long, good time to take a long weekend.
without a strong 1hr confirmation, no
July 9, 2010 at 13:44
Yes i am .2615
July 9, 2010 at 13:46
am waiting for this 1 hr candle close
July 9, 2010 at 13:16
Question: Does anyone have a simple and effective method for scaling into a profitable trade?
July 9, 2010 at 13:24
I tried a variety of methods for scaling in and out when I started out. None particularly satisfactory because invariably the good moves went with only half a position and the bad ones ended up with a whole one! Now I tend to do two things: low risk set ups get 2/3 lots at the initial entry (good candle through s/r etc). Higher risk (breakout, no confirmation) or if there is correlation with another open trade get 1 lot. When I enter on a touch of s/r with 1 lot and that touch becomes a good 1 or 4hr candle I’ll often add 1 or 2 extra lots.
Last thing is I quite often enter 1 lot at the close of the candle and put orders for 1 or 2 more on a pullback to get a better entry price and lower RR. Hope that makes sense!
July 9, 2010 at 13:27
VERY good explanation norm, kudo for that write up
July 9, 2010 at 13:33
norm – thanks for response – I think I get it. Lower risk = stronger commitment from outset. What’s “When I enter on a touch of s/r” mean though?
July 9, 2010 at 13:47
At strong levels I enter without confirmation. For example this week UJ 87.00 was strong and I went long just above without waiting for the hourly to close or confirmation
July 9, 2010 at 13:27
For people who cant work out 2% on a trade
http://www.forexcalc.com/
July 9, 2010 at 13:33
Hi People, can anyone tell me if a EA still trade when one is not conected to the internet, or must you be conected the whole time?
July 9, 2010 at 13:35
You must have an active internet connection and MT4 must be running @paynecp
July 9, 2010 at 14:02
or you must have VPS server so you trading platform will run 24/5
July 9, 2010 at 13:34
ya’ll have a good weekend
July 9, 2010 at 13:42
anyone long eur/usd?
July 9, 2010 at 13:57
yes
July 9, 2010 at 13:45
@piphut, I think we didn’t get confirmation for first setup till now, right?
July 9, 2010 at 13:47
I don’t see any confirmation. I’m also not trading today. There is nothing about these markets that I’m excited about.
July 9, 2010 at 13:56
@piphut, thank you
July 9, 2010 at 14:01
@piphut
How are you doing today, Mark? I am still here reading and learning. I have been too busy lately but I am still tuned in to Piphut.com as always.
July 9, 2010 at 14:06
Sort term trend is bullish on all time frames.money management is important here and we can hide stoploss below 2550.2day the pair has corrected down for 120pips.we will see 2660 atleast.
July 9, 2010 at 13:46
Hi,
the price is now is in a very dangerous zone, can be a good opportunity to go long, or the return of the downtrend. Specially being friday I should advise you not to enter at this point, if you want to enter wait for a nice candle confirmation and protect your entry with a sharp SL. My suggestion is based on the possible cross of MEMA10 and MEMA25. You can follow updates in the EURUSD group. The price is going according to my risky suggestion for yesterday in the forum.
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: this is my opinion. Follow at your own risk
July 9, 2010 at 14:00
Good Advice :)
July 9, 2010 at 13:48
there was a hammer on m30 i think
July 9, 2010 at 13:52
something to help everyone
6 global drivers
S&P 500
Dax
Nikkei
Oil
Gold
Euro
S&P, German Dax, Japanese Nikkei, all refer to the Futures markets. They run 23 hours a day, and will vary from the cash market that is open just for an eight hour session.
When all of these align you know where the market is headed with little doubt, same goes as some align and others are not, your chances of success grow as the numbers in alignment also grows.
Here is something you can try
Instead of the TV or forums , maybe think about turning on the daily and four hour bar charts, load up a 90 Simple Moving Average, and set it on the close. When the daily chart touches the SMA, switch to a 4 hour view, and consider the next break that the four hour chart offers, in the direction of the daily trend.
Switch to a 15 minute time-frame at that time and set the next break of the line as your entry, looking for momentum at 20:00 EDT, 02:00 EDT, and 07:00 EDT, and looking for a 20-30 initial move, that may just turn into a runner.
Why a 90SMA? ask the institutional traders and professional traders. Again notice the times mentioned? These are the most important times in forex trading and if you look back at the history you will see the significance of these.
When any pair reaches the R3 or S3 PP’s you can be assured most times the market is way over extended and will retreat back to the neutral PP, it being the new daily PP from the days move. From there sit back or go have lunch, dinner whatever until the market reveals where it wants to go because there is nothing to trade.
When you take into account everything that moves this market and wait for it all/most to line up you will have your price with a better than average chance of making your pips with little to no DD.
the break-out moves are likely to come around 8pm EST, 2AM EST, and 7AM EST. Now ask yourself why these times and what happens at these times and you have the answer
This is for everyone, a note that was pinned to a London trade room screen for many years, for all to see:
“Mistakes from the past are not something to be carried around as excess baggage into tomorrow. Whatever we have just experienced, good or bad, is already a part of what we now are. Mistakes and regrets are o.k. to have, so long as something is learned from them. The second that something is learned from a mistake it can be let go as a positive thought, rather than held as excess baggage.
Let’s get going, with a plan, so that the next mistake can be just as easily let go. It is not a question of whether we are going to make a mistake, the market will always be ready to offer the chance for that; it is how we deal with re-cycling it into a trading positive.”
July 9, 2010 at 13:56
These are the drivers that move the market you trade
and then there are the 6 drivers of the $index but that can be saved for later
July 9, 2010 at 14:23
Everything to help everyone.Thats the best comment on piphut i have.
July 9, 2010 at 14:24
To your point: “When all of these align you know where the market is headed with little doubt”
You raise very similar questions and theories that I have been considering. also found this wacky yet interesting interpretation of this theory on a chart posted here: http://bit.ly/bAzuiS
Its only looking at the effect side but the initiator IMO are global drivers/indexes. thought it was worth a share.
Anyway, interesting read. The big picture and correlating decisions are very key IMO. thank you.
—
my first post here :) may be my last because I prefer to lurk/read only… but piphut is rad, keep it up guys.
July 9, 2010 at 15:00
Aha, so you’re one of those? Well, we have a saying. The best sailors are standing a shore. Good luck
July 9, 2010 at 14:06
closed gbp/usd short for 100 pips.
July 9, 2010 at 14:18
Hey thanks for the info Hi everyone.
July 9, 2010 at 14:33
im off , good weekend all :)
July 9, 2010 at 14:38
It was gravestone doji last 1H candle.not very perfect??????
July 9, 2010 at 14:56
Had to go out for a while, just came back. Well have I missed something here :) What a hopeless trading day.
It might go down some more according to me and if it will we then may see Mark’s secondary set up come in to play still? But I doubt if a good trade opp will still be coming up today. Lets see (I am going to do something more interested in the meantime and will peek in here every now and then)\
Good luck and good weekend.
July 9, 2010 at 15:45
im off aswell have a nice weekend folks ,thanks again for all your contributions ,ive had a good pip day for a change lately lol
July 9, 2010 at 15:47
If one looks at the eur/usd vs S and P relationship over the past 3 sessions, the euro has dipped several times while the s/p has remained flattish. We have this set up once again. if this holds, eur/usd could test 1.2725
July 9, 2010 at 16:02
hello johnny how are you you receive a lot on this moment be carrefully for you heart !!! about coffe surely it s not nice for heart!!better birh=thday party!!!!now 2725 i hope but it s the last of week what do you think?
July 9, 2010 at 16:12
Hi there my friend Sahara. As I said , I was out for quite a while today so did not follow it all to close.
I am not in a trade either. (I am preparing for the Big Match Sunday :) )
Good luck to you and Bonne Weekend.
July 9, 2010 at 16:18
Hi my friend Johny? how are you doing?
July 9, 2010 at 16:36
Hi Zubair, how are you doing my friend? Its very very hot here today , like in Karachi. My thermostat showed 37 C. this afternoon. Old people (More older then me :) ) are having problems now, to bad. Anyway, lets hope it soon starts thunder/raining so may cool off a bit :)
July 9, 2010 at 16:41
;) Johny here the temperature is 44 degree celcius. You will be roasted here in Khi. Well today i visited several farmhouses and a girl ;;;)
July 9, 2010 at 16:46
Wooohhiii….a Girl, That sounds interesting? I hope it will work out for you Zubair. I know the way it works and goes some how how in your country (Not only Paki but many in Asia the same) and am only respecting those traditions. Lets hope for the best my friend. Good luck and keep me informerd o.k. cause when the time comes I like to be invited at the wedding :)
July 9, 2010 at 17:48
Tomorrow in Poland will be 36 degrees I’m going to Siberia :)
July 9, 2010 at 18:15
@NAPUS Its cheaper to just jump into the fridge for a couple of hours Napus (The place where all the Vodka and Beer is kept :) You might stay in the fridge the whole day long :) No need to go to Siberia…Maybe you run in to Big Fat Olga there, she may do a some trick with you :)
July 9, 2010 at 20:39
;) Johny i will rell you. But i’m very shy indeed
July 9, 2010 at 16:17
again like 74 i will be with Nlands i hope this time i m behind the winner (like that i remmember the big ajax)
July 9, 2010 at 16:38
I must admit, the way Spain played against Germany they played very good football. The only thing they still have to learn is to find the Goal :) (They seem to forget the ball have to go between those two pools :) ) But they sure play nicely. May the best one win, lets see.
July 9, 2010 at 16:50
Error…Poles (Not Pools…They do that after, jumpin in the Pool, when they have won :) )
July 9, 2010 at 16:41
Stocks back and forth between + and – again today, seems like deja vu from yesterday.
Barring any unexpected developments, the last hour into the US equity close should see price action pick up
July 9, 2010 at 18:16
Would not expect too much movement for the rest of the afternoon provided no unexpected news comes out or unexpected pops or drops in the equity markets.
July 9, 2010 at 18:41
I think, we will back the journey of long bearish trend from next week. My view! :)
July 9, 2010 at 19:23
Its my view also, or at least a correction on the upward correction :) On the sunday oppening the price should go back at least to 1.257… this is my “supported hint” not a trading advice. My advice is get out and enjoy the weekend!
July 11, 2010 at 17:57
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/9056/eurusdxe.gif
July 11, 2010 at 23:01
@napus Can you please tell me what the blue highlighted areas mean. Thanks
July 12, 2010 at 07:49
extent of formation HS
July 12, 2010 at 01:35
From your chart to my reality….I can only hope and pray this comes to pass!
July 12, 2010 at 01:51
hello, anyone in a trade now i toke a short on eur/$
July 12, 2010 at 02:34
yea I think we should see 1.2540/50/60 befor go up again this is what i’m think for today also you should see the econamic calender for UK 8:20am today
thanks
July 12, 2010 at 05:36
Good morning all, Goodluck this week.
July 12, 2010 at 06:23
Good morning All.. Waiting for mark Signal..
July 12, 2010 at 06:46
The Cable is facing a strong downside correction on Monday, unable to contain the US Dollar strength for a third straight day. The recent uprising in the American currency shed over 250 pips off the British currency since encountering an tough upside hurdle at 1.5240 area (highest level for 2 months hit last Thursday).
The pair’s value continues unstoppable drifting south, having recently reached levels below 1.4970. Earlier in Asia, an opening at 1.5077 was rapidly sent down hitting its lowest level around 1.5000. Although the greatest bearish wave was yet to come, dragging a vulnerable British Pound lower to hit a new 8-day low at 1.4962 area. Current price hovers through today’s low.
Accoring to Valeria Bednarik, Independt Analyst at FXstreet.com: “The short term bias is strongly to the downside. We are at 161.8% (15014) so we may correct higher here (towards 15054) before the next leg lower towards 1.4928. I would not expect the pair to reach 1.4872 as this would breach the previous low and take out the long term bullish count for the pair. We have UK GDP at 9.30 (UK). Support levels: 15014 14928 14874. Resistance levels: 15054 15113 15162”.
July 12, 2010 at 09:38
HAS ANY ONE SOLD USD JPY