Recap: Good morning PipHutters! You may have already noticed some changes to the site (login screen is different, there is a “PRO” menu item at the top) and lots more will be coming out all this week as well as several announcements. For now, lets recap last week:
Pretty good trading week overall. The pair hardly moved from start to finish on the week nearly forming a doji on the weekly chart. This played pretty well into our strategy of buying on dips as nearly every dip produced a jump back upwards. In short whether you were buying or selling last week it was hard not soaking in some pips if waited to sell on rallies and buy on dips.
Daily Outlook: This week should be interesting.
Much more telling then the Euro bank stress tests will be the market’s reaction to them. As expected the results of the tests were more or less interpreted positively as they were engineered to do, except for that little fact that the tests left out the single greatest threat to Eurozone banks – sovereign default. There was some smoke and mirrors on the tests that unfortunately allowed the banks to put forth only about 1% of their sovereign exposure if they claimed the other 99% was being held to maturity. This would be like taking your car in to have the breaks fixed and the mechanic promptly tells you that the steering column, oil level and air conditioning unit are all working great – good to know but not really what you were concerned about!
I read a great article over the weekend called “If Everything is so Great, Why do I Feel so Bad?” It talked about how many economic leading indicators were pointing north but that a general lack of confidence in the markets, not to mention all the government bailouts that are spurring the indicators, were causing a lasting drag on the emotions of market players and a general lack of confidence in capitalism in general.
Technically daily candlesticks have been mixed at best. On the daily chart the last 8 candles we have had: doji, bullish engulfing, bearish with long bearish wick, three inside down (bearish), bullish engulfing and a doji. That mess of candlesticks led to an ugly bearish looking candle on the weekly (body is a bit too big for a doji but still shows heavy indecision in the markets).
And above all that we have the 1.31-1.32 resistance zone where many heavy-hitters are waiting for a good longer term shorting opp. Mix that all together and I’ve got a “wait and see” attitude. No need to force a trade today on this pair.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is long with confirmation on dip to 1.2830 with targets to 1.2855, 1.2885, 1.2915 and 1.2945 for 115 pips profit.
A more aggressive long would be a buy on a sustained break of 1.2950 with targets at 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3030 and 1.3060 for 110 pips profit.
An aggressive short would be a failure on 1.2950 with candlestick entry or at 1.30 with targets back down to 1.2830.
Quick Links:
July 26, 2010 at 19:37
cad/jpy from this mornings post still looking good
July 26, 2010 at 19:44
lots of upside numbers to post but need a break first and , maybe we can see that tonight after this consolidation period, it broke out of a triangle and the bottom of that was 2886 so we should not see under 2886 shortterm and the breakout was at 2955 to I will be looking for longs between 2955 and 2886 on a pullback. EJ also as mentioned before needs to be watched. a retest of the 2955 area also needs to be watched…
ya’ll have fun I am gone till tonight now
July 26, 2010 at 19:45
look at the 4hr trends for your trade opportunities
July 26, 2010 at 19:46
It seems that half of the markets are watching and waiting for the other half to break through previous session high/low price points, and only then will the high frequency algorithms kick in to turbo-charge a ride that quickly runs out of momentum. It is reminiscent of a squirrel trying to cross a busy road; a gap is seen, the break is made, but doubt creeps in, and a reversal is made, that gets countered by momentum, that reverses the reversal, that creates confusion, and things come to a halt in the center median with no indication of whether the move will hold or fail.
July 26, 2010 at 19:59
I like this, really I do !
July 26, 2010 at 19:47
The average trading ranges (ATR) tend to drop when speculative interest is on the sidelines and unable to impact the amount that forex pairs move in each trading session. As those situations form it is easy for price action to hold around the daily chart simple moving average areas (SMA), and when the 50, 100 and 200 SMA’s are in play, as they are on most currencies right now, it is even more important to align price action breaks with increasing volume and speculative interest.
Trading the summer price channels is similar to getting dealt a pair of Ten’s in a poker game; the player knows that they look good, and they know that the pot odds are above average. However, unless a few more players get involved, they also know that they may be holding them until the River, as the player maneuvers around the fact that not enough people want to get involved with things to make it worth their while taking a chance on the break-through.
July 26, 2010 at 19:53
Those who have mastered patience know that once the main price points break on increasing volume, that come on the next major leg of global equity trade breaking hard, the volume and ATR will move higher/lower in quick fashion. It will be a fundamental break that starts the technical ball rolling, drawing in strong volume that allows price action to hold
July 26, 2010 at 19:57
Unfortunately there are no true volume indicators in fx as there is no central exchange. Best replacement is forex futures volume but realtime data is usually inaccessible to 99% fx retail trades..
July 26, 2010 at 19:54
Dow industrials up nearly 100 points as closing bell approaches
July 26, 2010 at 19:54
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mumbais-markets-prepare-for-huge-week-2010-07-25?link=kiosk
July 26, 2010 at 19:55
if you do not trade the rupee, look into it
July 26, 2010 at 19:55
Slumdog ???
July 26, 2010 at 20:00
Bonds and Notes will move lower on an improved economic outlook.
July 26, 2010 at 20:02
T-Notes moved up to new all time highs, 123.50 . Sell a break of
today’s low or at the close with a stop above 123.50. A break of RSI 50 will confirm the move
lower.
July 26, 2010 at 20:03
@ttom you dnt think it s a lot for us; can i follow !!! ???give me this on the end of the week i will hve saturday and sunday…..
July 26, 2010 at 20:05
its all part of what helps move the market, take some or all or none of it, its only more tools or arrows in your quiver to beat this market
July 26, 2010 at 20:08
I can stick to the basic euro stuff if it would be better
July 26, 2010 at 20:03
The cost to carry a dollar deposit in Europe has dropped to a historic low point. This cost will
increase when interest rates are allowed to rise again
July 26, 2010 at 20:03
@ttom What is your well reasoned opinion as to what the real cause was of the flash crash of May6?
July 26, 2010 at 20:07
I really do not know..I have read everything out there and seen all the excuses made by the “experts” but we will never know the truth because we are only the little people in this game and not privy to what really happens
July 26, 2010 at 20:04
oil, copper and silver moved higher today a sign that manufacturing will pick up
July 26, 2010 at 20:05
Thats a fact, agree again Not a bad sign at all :)
July 27, 2010 at 01:32
Copper up: That means another equity rally 2-3 days out. It could be a very up week overall in that case.
July 26, 2010 at 20:04
Equities rally into the close ending the day near session highs. Dow gains about 0.97% and the S&P closes up about 1.12%
Treasuries End Nearly Flat In Spite Of Jump In New Home Sales
July 26, 2010 at 20:11
were there really a jump in sales or was it the fudging of the numbers that made it look that way? its hard to believe that existing sales are down and these are up when you can buy a house built just 2 to 3 yrs ago for half or less its value and that makes buying a new home not a bargin at all
July 26, 2010 at 20:15
I wouldnt mind a nice house in FL or CA. (One of my dreams) But first we have to pump up the jam…heu…the Euro I mean. No parity but 2 bucks for a Euro then who knows it could be realised :)
July 26, 2010 at 20:17
I’ll swap you mine in Florida, where are you?
July 26, 2010 at 20:24
Right now I’ve got no shelter, so no accomodation to over you, its almost confiscated :) But dont worry I’ll get it back soon and maybe then we could work something out.
Where about in FL Ttom, the Keys? O well, Ocean Drive is just fine too :)
July 26, 2010 at 20:26
over=offer
July 26, 2010 at 20:10
Keep it coming Ttom, its all still interesting :)
July 26, 2010 at 20:12
well johhny, I tend to ramble when its slow and I have time to look around with nothing to do but maybe it is too much and I shouls stick to the basic euro/forex stuff only
July 26, 2010 at 20:15
ya see I look at the forex market a giant gig-saw puzzle or however you spell it and like to have ALL the pieces to that puzzle so when the picture is murky you can still ‘see’ whats happening with even a few to guide you
but
when they ALL line up, thats a good time to look forward to a long weekend with time an extra day or 2 off
July 26, 2010 at 20:19
Not at all my friend, It all make good sense to me and I am sure many of us in here pick up things from it and appreciate your postings. You’re not posting any b…shit but pure facts and I like to read all of it. (What I dont find of interest I just skip :))
I was asking myself? Whats the name of the Financial Institution that you’re the owner of? Whats the name of that Company?
July 26, 2010 at 20:23
SHHHH its all in the kids name but they do not know it, cant interest them in the least in trading but I have fun with it.
July 26, 2010 at 20:19
@ttom@johnny continue thanks
July 26, 2010 at 20:24
this is a group effort, I just happen to be the bigmouth at times but I get as much from others as they may get from me..
July 26, 2010 at 20:29
of course it s important group effort “group work” i understand when i read you but i cant write (only in french perhaps on one or two years may be!!!)
July 26, 2010 at 20:30
Hey Guys what is going on? :) Seems like Market is exhausting. well whatever i’m enjoying songs. :D
July 26, 2010 at 20:33
I think USD will loose parity with the Loonie since Interest rate of loonie is pushing the pair down.
July 26, 2010 at 20:34
good to see you back
July 26, 2010 at 20:43
Hey Tom how are you doing? :)
July 26, 2010 at 20:37
Overnight another foreign index confirmed an uptrend raising the number to 6 of 13. The US market opened quietly and gradually extended the recent rally to SPX 1113, and then 1115 at the close. Currently the market is extremely overbought short term and a 10 SPX point pullback, or more, can occur at anytime. Nevertheless, this rally from the SPX 1011 low, in early July, is very close to confirming its first uptrend since April. With the technicals continuing to improve this uptrend
July 26, 2010 at 20:38
DOW is uptrending, SPX is next
July 26, 2010 at 21:02
@johnny
You can have my house here in Florida….but It comes with a payment….lol
July 26, 2010 at 21:06
Thats alright Jenny, I’ll make you an offer but would only wanna buy fully furnished, which means, including…? :)
July 26, 2010 at 21:03
Tahiti is calling to me…
July 26, 2010 at 21:12
i m a few hours from florida my house “star wars” is open
July 26, 2010 at 21:19
:)
July 26, 2010 at 21:18
(posted now at eurusd forum of piphut)
LOOKING FOR AN ENTRY:
Hi, hope you all had a nice weekend. As you possible have noticed I do not trade at fridays and usually do not post on mondays. Statistically more than 55% of my bad trades are on those 2 days, so I decided to stay away from them. What about you? Do you have “special” days to win or loose? Its good to look at the numbers, sometimes you discover great things, that can make you change the way you trade.
For tomorow, there was no big change since I told you here 2 weeks ago that trhere was a posiibility for an uptrend to come around. It was confirmed, and the change was on the price, that came from 1.25 to 1.30 area. So, until the charts tell me the other way around I will be bulish, my suggestions for june 27th are:
1st: always look for a convenient candle (1H or 4H chart) at a convenient price (support/resistence) to go in, this is the most important part!
Trade 1: long at 1.294 area TP: 1.297; 1.30 SL: 1.2885
Trade 2: long at 1.290 area TP: 1.294; 1.297; 1.30 SL: 1.2885
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: this is my opinion. Follow at your own risk
July 26, 2010 at 21:21
@NUNO Dear Nuno, I see you peeking in here also just with One Eye around the corner :)
I am sure if you will use both your eyes your predictions will be even more accurate :)
July 26, 2010 at 21:23
But of course, in the land of the blind ….:)
July 26, 2010 at 21:24
One eye is King :)
July 26, 2010 at 21:38
Hi, until now have been good enough for me. Take one eye ate he group part to see it :)
July 26, 2010 at 21:43
Good luck my friend :) You’re looking for an Entry (As your posting says) Well, I’m taking the Exit now. See you :)
July 26, 2010 at 22:07
good nigth and good pips
July 26, 2010 at 21:25
trading for 30 pips with stop loss of 15 pips. you are gonna blow your account so fast young man. stay away from forex kiddo.
July 26, 2010 at 21:56
thanks for the “great” advice, have you been there? done that? did you blow your account?… well my posts speak for themselves, maybe the “kiddo” is around longer than some of you great minds
July 26, 2010 at 23:18
hahaha getting so emotional like a child =)
if you can’t control emotions from a single post, how are you going to control your emotions in the fx market?
believe me, anyone in forex would have told you the same thing as i did.
July 26, 2010 at 21:35
EUR/USD has traded within a 20 pip range over the last 5 hours (1.2980/85 to 1.3000/05).
And thats making me really bored and tired…Off to bed :)
July 26, 2010 at 21:42
@johnny look at this “my world: in yutub “sahara au lever du jour” our breackfast
July 26, 2010 at 22:59
Gold
Look for gold to break support and move down to the Fib 618 price 1150 now timed by the
intermediate 11 high. Watch the RSI 30 to define support on weakness
Sell support, today’s low, to start the move
down to intermediate 7 low. RSI against 50 should define overhead resistance.
Silver
Silver could move higher as a manufacturing metal on a break of RSI 50. The break of the
overhead resistance defined by the daily trend line will trigger the trade.
look for support to form near 170 because of strength in
silver.
Copper will push against the RSI 70 on a move higher were profit taking starts for many
technical traders. Strong support is now below the Fib 382, price 310. Consider a profit stop
then a re-entry at support.
Corn
Look for follow through
selling down the daily trend line near the Fib 618 timing an intermediate 10 low. The longs
are thought to be very weak allowing price to move down to the Fib 786, price 357.
Wheat
Sell the low of the red bar with a stop above the high for a continued move down to
intermediate 10 low. If a short is taken watch the RSI 50 near the Fib 382 and set a profit
stop near the round number of 550
Oil
Buying trend line support was the key to the long in crude oil. New longs are set to come in
on a break above 80 the Fib 500
July 26, 2010 at 23:02
Crude oil ended the day lower, after gains on equities and positive data on new home sales were outweighed by the dissipation of tropical storm Bonnie and the return of workers to the Gulf. WTI futures contract for September 10 fell 0.1% to $US78.88 a barrel.
July 26, 2010 at 23:03
@Johnny
Make me an offer i cant refuse…:)
July 26, 2010 at 23:54
EURUSD hasn’t dropped for more than 2 straight days since June 6. Massive sentiment change from Feb-May when the opposite worked
July 27, 2010 at 00:59
Dollar index
I am adjusting the intermediate points on the Dollar Index to define continued weakness down
to the intermediate 6 low. The next point of strong support is the old lows, price 8050
aussie
In the last report I mentioned to look to the old highs to define overhead resistance. A move
lower in the dollar will allow the AUD to continue higher. Watch the round number of 91,
gbp/usd
The next target for the GBP is 1.59 to 1.60 defined by the Fib 618. An improved outlook for
Europe as the debt problem seems to be under control will give strength to spread
Eur/usd
The EUR will move up to the next point of resistance now defined by the Fib 786, price 1.33
now timed by the adjusted intermediate points, the I-7 high. Look for follow through buying to
push price above 1.30 which will become support pulling RSI of 70
usd/cad
The CAD will move lower on dollar weakness. The next target is the Fib 786, price 1.03. The
RSI break is bearish to the spread continuing the move down to medium 4 low
Usd/chf
The next target on the CHF is 1.03 timed by the long term 10 low. The daily defines a move
up to intermediate 5 high before a break in price, look for I-5 to come early
UJ
This spread could move sideways as both the Yen and the dollar move lower in value on an
improved outlook for Europe. The weekly chart defines strong support near 86.
July 27, 2010 at 01:50
With reduced Yen carry, surely that is bullish for the sterling? That’s a heck of a jump to 1.60 so I’ll probably time into some further longs there.
July 27, 2010 at 02:00
EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.1876 (Jun 7 low) and the price action from 1.3028 is treated as consolidation of uptrend. Resistance is at 1.3028 followed by 1.3100, as long as 1.3100 resistance holds, another fall towards 1.2732 to reach next cycle bottom is possible.
July 27, 2010 at 02:09
ttom & pipsqueek – tq for the info really appreciated it.
July 27, 2010 at 02:34
could that shooting star at the 30 min be the entry for a short? … any one there ?
July 27, 2010 at 02:57
i think not yet because haven’t test previous high at 1.3028, guy any other feedback?
July 27, 2010 at 03:15
Shooting who?
July 27, 2010 at 02:57
it’s really flat – pretty boring stuff!
July 27, 2010 at 03:09
3 Resistance to be watch – 1.3028, 1.3063 and 1.3105
July 27, 2010 at 03:17
My resistances show as 3030, 3115, 3170 respectively as R1/R2/R3.
July 27, 2010 at 03:24
I am using camarilla Pivot ;-)
July 27, 2010 at 10:30
Bought the eur/usd yesterday at 12930 (as tweeted on my trading journal at http://www.twitter.com/wirraltraders)
My first test will be 131 (+170 pips) but if it passes this test, I will hold probably until 135
July 27, 2010 at 03:27
Just starting to get around this method, if any valuable analysis, please do share thank you.