Recap: I stayed out of any longs from yesterday’s signal, thankfully, as there were no bullish signals on the 1h or 4h worth entering on, though I know many of you took longs along the 2800 support and scalped it up for 10-20 pips at a time. If you did take that trade you could have netted 45+ pips.
Aside from the signal I did have a short from 2890 that put 100 pips in the equity – I didn’t put it in the signal because it seemed too aggressive for the general PipHut strategy (support/resistance trades placed with short-term trend).
Daily Outlook: We find ourselves in one of those sticky trading situations: long-term bearish, short-term was bullish but we had a bearish break. Does this mean today will be a bearish day? Hard to say, and a lot of it will be “wait and see” for the multitude of news events scheduled for the day (see forex calendar).
All that being said, my general strategy is to take advantage of further EUR/USD weakness and look for selling opportunities on a pull back to 2800-2830 resistance zone.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short in the 2820-2850 resistance area with confirmation and targets (from 2830) at 2805, 2775, 2745 and 2715 for 115 pips profit.
A more conservative long would be a buy off of a 2680 bounce on further weakness.
Finally another aggressive trade would be a long on a failure to sustain a rally below 1.2750 with targets back up to 2830 for 80 pips profit.
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July 22, 2010 at 17:47
It’s crystal clear that there’s a 50% chance of a nice Bull train tomorrow.
July 22, 2010 at 17:50
LOL you are 100% correct sir
July 22, 2010 at 17:54
50? You wish. There’s always the chance it will be a tight range and then take out 1% for the spread. ;)
July 22, 2010 at 17:50
cheers you guys, nothing to trade now
July 22, 2010 at 17:51
Yup…I was kidding..and you figured it out.
Adios! Have a great weekend!
July 22, 2010 at 17:52
Imagine a FX world without a Bernanke/Trichet, without Banks collapsing or StressTests, without Moody’s/Fitch down/up Grades, or whatever it is (You name it…..).
Wouldnt this be a boring place.
July 22, 2010 at 17:55
Yeah….I think we’re starting to catch the fun-ness of Forex trading.
July 22, 2010 at 17:58
I like ur attitude Johnny my friend.
July 22, 2010 at 18:03
:-)
July 22, 2010 at 18:02
@PIPHUT
Mark can you tell me how you call this what is forming on the Daily then??? Could this form to be a bullish Harami or Engulfing or what do you actually call this (Although I understand it aint the closing of the day yet)
Thanks
July 22, 2010 at 18:09
will we test again2934 like that we can see other number before asian market
July 22, 2010 at 18:11
A WSJ article entitled ” New Data Underline Banks’ Dependency on the ECB” pointed out “Banks from Portugal, Ireland, Greece and—most of all—Spain increased their borrowings from the ECB to record levels in June as more and more institutions found their access to wholesale money markets barred.
“The reality of the situation is that a growing number of institutions have failed the market’s own stress test,” said Lena Komileva, head of market economics for the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations at Tullett Prebon.”
July 22, 2010 at 18:13
Aaarrrrghhh!! Phew, phew breath. Breathe. Slowly. Musnt get angry at the little colroed candles. Calm.
July 22, 2010 at 18:17
hehehe!!!!!!!!!!!
July 22, 2010 at 18:14
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,707957,00.html
July 22, 2010 at 18:17
uropean officials have decided to publish the results after markets close on Friday, providing banks with a full weekend to obtain new capital if the stress tests spark an emergency
July 22, 2010 at 18:24
there is a nice paper on reuters (20h16) sorry i cant translate
July 22, 2010 at 18:25
18h06 GMT
July 22, 2010 at 18:19
Udo Steffens, president of the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, doesn’t believe the results will be very revealing. “No country can allow for a majority of its banks not to pass the stress test,” he says dryly. “And it has been conceived with that in mind.”
July 22, 2010 at 18:23
That’s why they took out the sovereign risk portion of the tests. It would have been a bank-killer.
July 22, 2010 at 18:59
it will be publisced as i understand even germany is against it
July 22, 2010 at 18:21
What a difference a day makes…..
I was just overlooking some old posts of yesterday. Especially the ones when Bernanke was finished talking.
On that moment it was almost a certainty (According to some comments placed) that we were heading down to 1,25 in the next couple of days?
Now I am surely not saying we wont be getting to see 1,25 one coming day.
But is aint FX a funny little beast, E/U as an example creeping its way up while most of us had other thoughts.
A misterious mistery I would say, going its one stubborn way :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:14
we needed to be under 2710 to see 2500 but never got there…tonight will be interesting
July 22, 2010 at 18:27
@TTOM Dont worry about the Bank Stress tests Ttom. Merkel (The Iron Lady of Germany) will make sure there’s enough corn on the brasos :)
Like Mark use to say, its already baked in ! Tomorrow you will eat yesterdays bread, but think its baked just hours before you bought it. Always was always will be. They have enough sand to trow to blind us for good!
Lets see how it goes, by the time Europe markets close down I will be out of trading (IF I will trade anyway) :)
July 22, 2010 at 18:40
Back to around 2830 from where about we will see a rebound to 2950 (or even get 1,30 insight) Just my view :)
July 22, 2010 at 18:40
Ahh ha ha ha ha ha ha. Urghhhhhhhh. Heheeeee. Blurghhhhhahaaa haha.
July 22, 2010 at 18:49
Top bankers to ECB in run-up to stress test results 21 July 2010, 15: 44 hours | DJ
By Nina Koeppen and Ulrike Dauer
Dow Jones
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)–Top bankers from Europe were Wednesday in a meeting with the European Central Bank (ECB), two days before the publication of the results of stress tests that are more certainty about the financial situation of 91 European banks.
Under the bankers who have been spotted at the entrance of the ECB’s headquarters in Frankfurt are the Chief Executive of the Spanish bank BBVA, the CEOs of the Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit and those of the German banks Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.
There is no press release scheduled for after the meeting.
The ECB shall consult on a regular basis with top bankers, but this meeting calls on particular interest, having regard to the forthcoming publication of the stress test results.
The Committee of European Banking Supervisors CEBS will publish individual results for each of the tested banks, which together account for 65% of the European banking sector.
The test is intended to judge the extent to which banks to be able to stand up to pressure on their loans and investments in the case of a new economic downturn.
Also, in the test the extent to which banks to be able to stand up to a new reduction in the rates of government bonds, below the levels that have been achieved at the beginning of May.
The rates of government bonds of some of the euro zone countries came away deeply at the beginning of may, after the establishment of a European support fund for Greece. Investors feared when that other euro zone countries with large budget deficits would need European aid.
According to unconfirmed sources, banks must calculate how much capital they need to a tier-1 ratio of 6% to the end of 2011, in the case of a gloomy economic scenario, which takes into account a new drop in the currency value of government bonds. The tier-1 ratio indicates the number of financial space banks have to absorb losses, by means of equity and other reserves.
Nina Koeppen; Dow Jones; + 31-20-nina.koeppen@dowjones.com 5715201;
July 22, 2010 at 18:56
my tam tam this morning was 3 germany banks 1 spain 1 italian
July 22, 2010 at 19:14
How far does your Tam Tam reach Sahara, can I hear it from here ??? :)
July 22, 2010 at 19:16
you are so far my friend!!!i dont think so
July 22, 2010 at 18:58
i’m back. Sorry for my emotional commentary with cadtek. I apologize for that. Well i’m thinking to go long after retracement.
July 22, 2010 at 19:01
forget and tomorrow will be another day!!!
July 22, 2010 at 19:06
Although I know you’re still quite young of age, with this comment to me you prove to be a real man Zubair. Hats off and lets just forget the subject.
Good luck in your trading. :)
July 22, 2010 at 19:10
:) Hmm well i enjoyed pips today. wanna eat more ;D
July 22, 2010 at 20:40
What is your idea of the retracement entry? I’m hoping at least 1.2838.
July 22, 2010 at 19:03
@piphut @johnny @zubair
Hello guys, I am finally back after some much needed sleep. But now I am all out of wack for the the market is doing. What are the trading ideas we are waiting on to see?
July 22, 2010 at 19:08
Good afternoon sleeping beauty, hope you had a good rest :) You’ve missed it all and actually nothing :)
July 22, 2010 at 19:11
Good Afternoon jeeni :) plan is simple. i.e risk appetite.
July 22, 2010 at 19:05
third time with 29.04 can we higher!!??
July 22, 2010 at 19:08
simply a wrong decisions got today and also 20th.
for the newbies… best to do some analysies ur own before trading….
July 22, 2010 at 19:13
Im gonna fetch me some coffee. Catch ya’ll later.
Mark aint answering my question anyway so….
July 22, 2010 at 19:20
is it a bullish flag forming in 1H?
July 22, 2010 at 19:23
Finally some action on Piphut, >500 posts already. Anyone recalls what’s the biggest number of comments seen so far?
Enjoying your coffee johnny? ain’t it too late for that? ;) I’m having a nice cold beer, it’s still 29C outside.
July 22, 2010 at 19:28
in july first 577 posts
July 22, 2010 at 19:30
867 in 10of juin
July 22, 2010 at 19:39
Yeah right ;)
July 22, 2010 at 19:36
Hi there Mike, Good to see you again. I had some wine while I prepared/ate my dinner so a coffee little while later tastes great :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:42
I think we’ll hit the resistance of 577 today.
July 22, 2010 at 20:20
Great things are done when men and mountains meet. This is not done by jostling in the street.
Always be ready to speak your mind, and a base man will avoid you.
As a man is, so he sees. As the eye is formed, such are its powers.
Excessive sorrow laughs. Excessive joy weeps.
I must create a system or be enslaved by another mans. I will not reason and compare: my business is to create.
If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite.
The weak in courage is strong in cunning.
What is grand is necessarily obscure to weak men. That which can be made explicit to the idiot is not worth my care.
You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.
- All Quotes by William Blake
July 22, 2010 at 20:29
And I am sure you will know all the 10 commandments by the letter too :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:30
Though shall not ….?
July 22, 2010 at 20:31
Error…Thou :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:35
trade the news
July 22, 2010 at 20:41
trade with no stoploss
July 22, 2010 at 20:42
overleverage your account
July 22, 2010 at 20:42
trade blindly others recommendations
July 22, 2010 at 20:43
Trade with your mate :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:43
trade money you cannot afford to lose
July 22, 2010 at 20:44
trade with squiggly lines all over your charts
July 22, 2010 at 20:44
listen to the media Experts
July 22, 2010 at 20:42
Ha ha…chessmate :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:46
trade with borrowed money
July 22, 2010 at 20:46
ever ever think forex is easy and quit your job
July 22, 2010 at 20:49
Fool the judge and the jury… For thou will be punished by the whip :)
July 22, 2010 at 20:50
or listen to any one else to make your trade decisions, learn to trade yourself, design you own system based on your needs and strengths and learn to analysis the market, learn what makes it moves , the hows and whys and whens across all the markets, look at the big picture beyond the chart in front of you…there is a reason pork bellies will rally or the Dax will drop or, or, or, or and it has something to do with what you can expect in the forex market also.
why do the yens move?
what makes to chf so valuable?
lots of questions and the answers are not that hard to find and learn
July 22, 2010 at 20:46
Signing off for today, my bedsheets are calling on me again.
See it all tomorrow.
Have a nice day/night ahead.
July 22, 2010 at 20:54
lol @johnny & @ttom you guys are crakin me up
July 22, 2010 at 20:58
Hope we didnt woke you up :)
It was a little boring so its always good to find someone in here to kill some time, this time Ttom was so kind.
Not always do we have to play it ‘serious’ in here I guess :)
Go to try to sleep now, although my thoughts will be elsewhere :)
July 22, 2010 at 21:00
no wake me, about to go home from work, raining cats and dogs here now, gona be a joy ride home
July 22, 2010 at 21:02
Ok , safe trip, see you around.
July 22, 2010 at 21:31
2047GMT retraced yesterday’s losses, upside potential remains while above 1.2875/80, below may see 1.2840 again, above 1.2930 may see up
July 22, 2010 at 22:08
(posted now at the EURUSD group of piphut)
FRIDAY:
Hi all, tomorow is friday, so I will not trade. I dont know how was the week for you, mine was farly nice, I good day and the others were fair cause managed to stay out of trade, and in one case took a small loss in a risky business. A litle exercise for you: without looking at the charts how do you consider this week? More bullish or bearish? Take a look at the daily chart now… We are about the same price than a week ago! Makes you wonder… It is always good to look at the market from different angles: fellow traders prespectives, different timeframes, diferent news, etc…
Now for tomorow: apart from being friday it will be a very risky day, as you know, the stress tests for the European banks will be out by five. The results are very much decided, for example the 3 major banks in Portugal climbed high in Lisbon stock market today, one of them more than 7%… So I expect that FX will continue the trend where it was left last week: UP.
If I trade I will look for:
Trade 1: long around 1.285 TP: 1.291; 1.294; let it run… SL: will depend on the entry price, but some pips below 1.28
Trade 2: long around 1.281 TP: 1.286; 1.29.1; 1.294; let it run… SL: will depend on the entry price, but some pips below 1.276
Always wait for a nice candle formation on the 1H, can help you a lot. I will be very interested on the first 2 4H candles of the European session.
Good luck and better weekend!
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: this is my opinion. Follow at your own risk
July 22, 2010 at 22:47
The market is Moving between 1.29170 and 1.2870 it has done this For the past six days Now and each time It has been Resticted to 1.3000. With That in Mind am looking for the Market To fall below 1.2850 Before i enter short. vice vera if it can hold above 1.3000 i feel that a bullish run can be prolonged what does everyone thinks if anyone is still here.
July 22, 2010 at 23:08
looks like bull flag is forming for G/U
July 22, 2010 at 23:57
2980 me thinks very possible
* Afraid To Trade : No trading system in place. Not comfortable with risk and the unknown. Fear of total loss. Fear of ridicule. Need for control.
* Fear Of Being Stopped Out: The usual reason for this is that the trader fears failure and feels like he or she cannot take another loss. The trader’s ego is at stake. Fear of losing your chance at opportunity.
* Fear Of Taking Loss: Trading with money you cannot afford to lose or trading with borrowed money. Last hope at success. Trying to be successful at something.
* Getting Out Of Traders Too Early: Relieving anxiety by closing a position. Fear of position reversing and then feeling let down. Need for instant gratification.
* Limiting Profits: You don’t deserve to be successful. You don’t deserve money or profits. Usually psychological issues such as poor self -esteem.
* Wishing And Hoping Market Will Turn Around: Not wanting to take control or take responsibility for the trade. Inability to accept the present reality of market place.
* Adding On To A Losing Position: Not wanting to admit your trade is wrong. Hoping it will come back. Again trader’s ego at stake.
* Compulsive Trading: Drawn to the excitement of the markets. Addiction and Gambling issues are presnt. Needing to feel you are in the game.
* Trading Too Much: Need to conquer the market. Greed trying to get even with the market for a previous loss. The excitement of trading ( similar to Compulsive Trading )
* Not Trading The Correct Position Size: Dreaming the trade will be only profitable. Not fully recognizing the risk and not understanding the importance of money management. Refusing to take the responsibility for managing the risk.
* Not Following Your Proven Trading System: You don’t believe it really works. You did not test it well. It does not match your personality. You want more excitemnt in your trading. You don’t trust your own ability to choose a successful system.
* Over Thinking The Trade: Fear of loss or being wrong. Wanting a sure thing where sure things don’t exist.
* Second Guessing Your Trading Signals: Not understanding that loss is a part of trading and the outcome of every trade is unknown. Not accepting there is risk in trading. Not accepting the unknown.
* Angry After A Losing Trade: The feeling of being a victim of the markets. Unrealistic expectations. Caring too much about a specific trade. Trying your self-worth to your success in the markets. Needing approval from markets.
* Irritable after the Trading Day: Emotional roller coaster due to anger, fear and greed. Putting too much attention on trading results and not enough on the process and learning the skill of trading. Focusing on the money too much. Unrealistic trading expectations.
* Excessive Joy After A Winning Trade: Trying your self-worth to the markets. Feeling unrealistically ” in control ” of the markets.
July 23, 2010 at 00:18
@ttom great post – you’ve described many things that are so true!
July 23, 2010 at 00:30
and the easy fix ?
Make trading boring , trade micro lots .
unless you have a 100k account , then trade mini lots :)
Almost total removal of emotion. ie. whatever happens , win or lose you wont be getting too bothered or excited.
July 23, 2010 at 01:53
to each his own, but it is common knowledge that emotions and predictable behavior is what gives the big guys power and makes more than 95% of trades lose.
So using demos and micro lots provides opportunity to build skill without thinking about money and getting all emotional about losing or winning because unless skill levels are high there will not be any winnings to get emotional about postively anyway. Just my thoughts.
July 23, 2010 at 01:01
1.2930 is key hurdle in EUR/USD..1.2880 is key support
July 23, 2010 at 02:07
After touching the lower boundary of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, EURUSD bounce from 1.2732. Now the rise from 1.2732 could possibly be resumption of uptrend from 1.2150. Another rise to 1.3200 area would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Key support is at 1.2732, only fall below this level could trigger another fall to 1.2600 zone.
July 23, 2010 at 02:10
Daily
High 1.2935
Low 1.2736
Close 1.2891
R3 1.3171
R2 1.3053
R1 1.2972
Pivot 1.2854
S1 1.2773
S2 1.2655
S3 1.257
July 23, 2010 at 04:03
guys, very promising bull pennant for gbp/usd in daily, 4hr, and 1hr. we might see a 200pip rise in today’s session.
July 23, 2010 at 04:34
thanks for the heads up.
July 23, 2010 at 04:35
GM
July 23, 2010 at 04:54
long at 1.2898 because charts point direction as up, not completely convienced yet will see close watch
July 23, 2010 at 05:05
EURUSD finding support into tis 100 hr SMA, which currently comes in at 1.2882.
July 23, 2010 at 05:09
thanks, @pipsqueek, probably will go down a little more for a better entry
July 23, 2010 at 05:48
came out of my long @1.2900 seems will go down too far
July 23, 2010 at 05:24
Good Morning all piphutters
July 23, 2010 at 05:30
Morning @zubair123 lets see if that daily doji brings us any good luck today
July 23, 2010 at 06:11
Euro Set for Weekly Decline on Concern Stress Tests to Reveal Loan Losses
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/euro-loses-gains-versus-yen-dollar-before-europe-bank-stress-test-results.html
July 23, 2010 at 05:30
Economy News 22 July 2010
The Dutch banks ING, Fortis, ABN/SNS and Rabobank will most likely pass Friday’s stress test for European banks.
July 23, 2010 at 05:40
bloomberg- Bank of Ireland Plc and Allied Irish Banks Plc, the country’s two biggest banks, are both set to pass the European Union’s stress tests on the region’s lenders, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
July 23, 2010 at 05:43
Automatically translated but not very good, however if you read the article you will understand.
In short, many results of Banks Stress Tests, also those in Greece and Spain, were already leaked out yesterday. ALL POSITIVE (As I already mentioned yesterday, I dont think the results will really shake/shock the market later today. But, lets see :)
ANGER OVER LEAKING OF STRESS TEST BANKS
-The drain that a number of Belgian, Greek and Spanish banks was successful for the stress test, yesterday a lot of resentment. Dutch experts speak disgrace.
July 23, 2010 at 05:45
Was unable to place the full article (Might be to long). Will try it later.
July 23, 2010 at 05:44
G M :-)
Several Spanish savings banks fail stress tests – El Pais newspaper
July 23, 2010 at 05:45
It is being reported that several Spanish Savings banks have failed the stress test.
July 23, 2010 at 05:46
WSJ: Greek bank ATE may fall stress test
July 23, 2010 at 06:05
I like the failure. ha ha ha
July 23, 2010 at 05:48
this stress test is for Banks and by them……