This is a re-post of today’s signal for new comments. Please start commenting on this post as the last one was acting funny.
Recap: No EUR/USD trades taken off yesterday’s signal. Bullish day yesterday as the pair rallied hard from Wednesday’s big drop.
Daily Outlook: A lot of indecision in the markets right now as the price has ended up just where it started to begin the week, forming a nice looking doji on the weekly chart. This indecision could signal a possible reversal in the pair though I think many traders are waiting for the 1.31 resistance zone to start shorting so this very well could just be a false signal.
The big news of the day is of course the release of the bank stress tests, though as some traders already pointed out many of these results have been leaked already. Add this to the fact that the tests don’t include sovereign debt risks, at least not publicly, and it makes you wonder how valuable these tests are. For anyone not familiar with what sovereign debt risks it basically is the amount of exposure banks would have if one of the PIIGS were to default. This is the main worry with the banks and for them to leave it out of a stress test tells us the results would not be pretty.
Trading Idea: It’s Friday and I won’t be watching the markets as closely today but there are some interesting trade setups that I might open a few small positions for. I am very curious to see how these stress tests will effect the market. Useless or not traders will still act on them. I’m still watching that 1.2850 pivot area: I’m bullish above this level and bearish below.
If I enter the markets today I’d look to long on a failure/false breakout of 1.2850 with targets at 1.2875, 1.2905, 1.2935 and 1.2965 for 115 pips.
A more aggressive trade would be a short on a sustained break below 2850 with targets down to 2825, 2800, 2770 and 2740 for 110 pips.
Finally a sustained breakout about 1.2915 is another aggressive long with targets up to 1.3000 for a quick 80+ pips.
Happy pipping and have a great weekend!
July 23, 2010 at 15:41
Stress test prelim hitting the wires
FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) –According to Reuters, EU regulators have checked 91 of the bloc’s top banks to see if they hold enough capital to withstand shocks worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008, which triggered a near meltdown of global financial markets. Those banks hold 65% of the EU’s total banking assets and at least half of banking assets in each of the 27 EU countries. Aggregate results will be published around 16:00 GMT while the individual results of each bank will be release later, at 16:30 GMT.
EUR/USD meanwhile, holds near daily lows capped under 1.2830 since US opening, yet holding above 1.2793 daily low, waiting for the news. Under this last, first support comes at 1.2730, where pair has bottomed the last two weeks. Above mentioned 1.2830, resistances come at 1.2870 (July 19th low and) and 1.2910, July 22nd intraday high.
July 23, 2010 at 15:45
testing reply…
July 23, 2010 at 15:42
19 mn to wait
July 23, 2010 at 15:43
it has been moved to 12:30 from 12:00
July 23, 2010 at 15:45
What I was gonna ask you Ttom is, Do you speak German ??? (Me thinks yes…!)
July 23, 2010 at 15:47
only English and even that some think needs improving on..I am just a country hick with a computer
July 23, 2010 at 15:53
But (again, but…) I saw a comment this morning where you were kinda putting it into not such a nice words….(Dont remember well, and since the Postman got confused today I wont be able to trace it either I guess?)
You said something about “Pain in the ass….” But you wrote “Pain in the aRse..” and thats German…So, I thought Ttom can speak German too :)
Sorry Ladies, I am just repeating the comment. It usually not my language.
July 23, 2010 at 15:56
see, it does need working on but now days they even say it on primetime TV, now what is that about? damn shame we have come to that being in the name of a Tv show in primetime. shows how far america has gotten away from family values and lets not talk about morals
ok
I’m done
July 23, 2010 at 15:44
johhny, I am glad you found a solution to your problem whatever it was ??
July 23, 2010 at 15:45
test new comment
July 23, 2010 at 15:46
we are ahead of you today Mark
July 23, 2010 at 15:47
Ha ha… My belly starts aching now. Dont do this again Stanley !!! :)
July 23, 2010 at 15:46
Received test loud & clear Sir !
July 23, 2010 at 15:48
wich one?
July 23, 2010 at 15:46
Everything seems to be working OK here.
July 23, 2010 at 15:47
@piphut now what is your opinion on EUR/USD?
July 23, 2010 at 15:49
@PRIYA Mark is aint trading today so he will be unable to tell you my dear :)
July 23, 2010 at 15:53
Ok Johnny. Please tell me what do you think on EUR/USD?
July 23, 2010 at 15:52
I’d be looking for a shorting opp right about now (2875 area).
btw – this latest drop was forecasted beautifully on the 4h GMT charts. We have a thrust upward and then a failure to close above 2915.
July 23, 2010 at 15:54
Thank you Mark.
July 23, 2010 at 16:08
hehe, wonder how many really did?
July 23, 2010 at 15:48
I will need a stress test on me after this week lol
July 23, 2010 at 15:50
anybody have any idea about how bad news of the Bank Stress Test Results effect the oil
July 23, 2010 at 15:52
U.S. Stocks Fluctuate as China, Europe Concern Offsets Earnings
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/u-s-stock-index-futures-rise-in-sign-s-p-500-index-may-extend-weekly-gain.html
July 23, 2010 at 15:52
Cracks knuckles , can we break this one too ? :D
July 23, 2010 at 15:53
Give it your best ;)
July 23, 2010 at 15:56
in 5 minutes
July 23, 2010 at 15:57
4 mins.Flat but still excited :)
July 23, 2010 at 15:57
the pit chatter is pretty quiet right now
July 23, 2010 at 15:58
@ttom how do you hear this?
July 23, 2010 at 16:01
you can get it from trade the news, its a constant update on the latest news and events as the day goes by, there are others also that are more expensive
July 23, 2010 at 15:58
2 minutes left…..
July 23, 2010 at 15:59
they delayed the results 30 mins, was posted earlier
July 23, 2010 at 16:02
well results are coming out little by little
July 23, 2010 at 16:02
2010/07/23 16:01:00 HYPO REAL ESTATE IS ONLY GERMAN BANK TO FAIL EU STRESS TEST
July 23, 2010 at 16:02
no real surprises yet
July 23, 2010 at 16:03
2010/07/23 16:03:00 GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMAN BANK TEST RESULTS SEND `POSITIVE SIGNAL’
July 23, 2010 at 16:03
this can get ya dizzy, or dizzier
is that a word?
July 23, 2010 at 16:04
It is Ttom, just as A(.)se is :)
July 23, 2010 at 16:13
hey johhny, I see we can get messages too? can we reply from here?
July 23, 2010 at 16:14
i have a few in an inbox it says that i probably should reply to.
July 23, 2010 at 16:04
2010/07/23 16:03:00 Results are coming out in the form of Tier 1 capital ratio’s and the vast majority look to have passed
July 23, 2010 at 16:04
1 geman bank 0 france 0 portugal
July 23, 2010 at 16:05
2010/07/23 16:04:00 Even Greek bank Alpha banks passes; slightly incredulously and here is the lack of credibility
July 23, 2010 at 16:06
credebility: 00000
July 23, 2010 at 16:06
well thats a dud, we got the fireworks earlier
cheers
see ya sunday
July 23, 2010 at 16:08
Take care my friend and enjoy your weekend (Come back here ya hear :))
July 23, 2010 at 16:07
In The Netherlands we have a saying “Its all a Wax Nose” (This Stress Tests) Like I was thinking already before, the whole thing is a laugh really (Just my view) :)
July 23, 2010 at 16:10
a wax nose?
someday you must explain that one..lol
July 23, 2010 at 16:14
makes me wounder how people are making money right now.opening closing its just swinging back and forth.
I mean the market is moving so someone is crazy enough to trade this news.
July 23, 2010 at 16:23
didnt know your a Dutchie
July 23, 2010 at 16:08
greece 1
July 23, 2010 at 16:09
spain 2 or three
July 23, 2010 at 16:10
SAHARA, the WC football is over my friend :)
July 23, 2010 at 16:11
LOL
July 23, 2010 at 16:17
next one (only 4 years to wait)nlands will winn in brasil!!!!
July 23, 2010 at 16:10
# Sweden says all four big banks pass
# Spain’s Diada Savings bank fails, Espigna savings bank group fails, UNNIM group fails, Banca Civica fails, CajaSur fails
# Irish banks pass
# Greece’s ATEBank fails
July 23, 2010 at 16:11
results are good or bad for euro?
July 23, 2010 at 16:12
(RTTNews) – The major European markets ended Friday’s session on a mixed note, as traders waited with bated breath for the results of the stress tests conducted on European financial institutions. Economic reports showing that the recovery momentum is intact served to alleviate anxieties, helping the markets to hold ground.
The stress tests, the results of which are eagerly awaited, are designed to help shore up confidence in the financial sector that has been plagued by fears of bad balance sheets following Greece’s near-default earlier in the year. A total of 91 banks, representing two-thirds of the region’s banking sector, are being tested to assess whether they will be able to withstand future adversities in the financial sector. Banks from 20 countries across the European Union, with nearly half of them from Spain and Germany, are being scrutinized.
The Asian markets closed higher, tracking the spectacular gains on Wall Street on Thursday, while U.S. stocks are showing some volatility and are trading on mixed note. Meanwhile, commodities prices moved lower, as traders took profits following yesterday’s strong advances.
After seeing some bounce following the release of an upbeat German data, the euro turned lower against the greenback ahead of the stress test results.
The averages in Europe opened Friday’s session lower following two straight sessions of gains. However, they recovered in early trading and saw some gains in early morning trading before turning mixed. The French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX stayed afloat above the unchanged line until late afternoon trading before witnessing some volatility. Nevertheless, they recovered in late trading to close modestly higher. The CAC 40 ended up 0.18% at 3,607 and the DAX Index added 0.40% to 6,167.
However, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index languished mostly below the unchanged, barring some strength in early trading, before closing lower. The index closed down 1.19 points or 0.02% at 5,313.
In the U.K. pharma and financial stocks led the decliners, while resource and utility stocks are mostly higher. Arm Holdings surged up over 11% after it announced the signing of a licensing deal with Microsoft (MSFT).
Vodafone (VOD) rose after it reported that organic revenue rose 0.9% in the second quarter. The company also said it would pay 1.25 billion pounds to settle a lawsuit alleging tax evasion.
Lufthansa, Commerzbank and BASF led the gainers in Germany, while Air France-KLM, Alstom, EADS and Veolia Environment advanced strongly in Paris.
Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson (ERIC) reported an increase in second quarter profit to 1.88 billion Swedish kronor, although the increase was not significant as expected by some economists. Sales fell to 48 billion Swedish kronor from 52.14 billion Swedish kronor.
On a positive note, the Ifo Institute’s survey showed that the German business climate unexpectedly improved in July. The institute’s business climate index rose to 106.2 in July from 101.8 in June, exceeding forecasts of 101.5. The current assessment index rose to 106.8 from 101.2 and the expectations index moved up to 105.5 from 102.5.
In another upbeat report from the region, U.K. GDP rose a better than expected 1.1%in the second quarter following a 0.3% expansion in the previous quarter, while economists expected a more modest 0.3% growth. Marking a return to the black after 2 years, GDP rose 1.6% year-over-year, better than the estimated growth of 1.1%.
However, a report released by the INSEE showed that French consumer spending declined 1.4% month-over-month in June, reversing the 0.6% increase in the previous month. Economists had estimated a 0.3% increase. Spending declined 1.9% year-over-year compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase.
July 23, 2010 at 16:14
Hey @johnny, please post just a paragraph and a link to the rest at most, thanks
July 23, 2010 at 16:14
Sorry forget it again (I am Stanley this time :))
July 23, 2010 at 16:11
http://live.reuters.com/uk/Event/EU_bank_stress_tests
July 23, 2010 at 16:13
Choppy reaction in EUR so far to the results…Given the lack of rigor in the tests, the market appears set to challenge the downside but the ranges are sticky for the time being. Probably need to see below 1.2780 to get a downside extension in EUR/USD
July 23, 2010 at 16:16
CEBS says 7 banks have failed the stress tests–one Greek bank, one German and 5 Spanish savings banks
July 23, 2010 at 16:16
thank you johnny & hi Mark
July 23, 2010 at 16:19
I think its about time to go and get my Little Bully out of the stable :)
July 23, 2010 at 16:20
and this candle (weekly)….
July 23, 2010 at 16:21
waiting to let out my torro :-)
July 23, 2010 at 16:24
swuiss one??
July 23, 2010 at 16:25
with spanish blood
July 23, 2010 at 16:43
Hable Espanol Senorita :)
July 23, 2010 at 17:01
un poquito senor y usted tambien :)
July 23, 2010 at 16:28
and if it doesn’t want out, I’ll have the russian bear dancing
July 23, 2010 at 16:29
perhaps this one!!
July 23, 2010 at 16:25
Spain’s Cajasur savings bank failed European bank stress tests with a Tier 1 ratio of 4.3 percent. It needed additional capital of 208 million euros (173.5 million pounds
July 23, 2010 at 16:36
(Reuters) – Seven of 91 European banks have failed stress tests and show an overall capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros, the organisers of the tests said on Friday.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE66M3DT20100723
July 23, 2010 at 16:42
Ok, my Bully is all geared up now, ready to ride and to fight. (I’ve sharpened his horns with my swiss-blade-knife)
Now I think I’ll let him out somewhere around 2780 (If not sooner), but of course only if Mr. Candle Man gives his sign :)
July 23, 2010 at 16:45
Markets greeting stress test results with a yawn now…
July 23, 2010 at 16:46
Looks like we will soon be back to watching stocks
July 23, 2010 at 16:51
Spain’s bank rescue plan is ready to extend another 1.8 bln euros to boost lenders capitalization. They have already committed 10.58 bln.
http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz0uWcc7Sr9
July 23, 2010 at 16:53
CEBS: …between banks and governments has a useful life extending beyond the horizon of the exercise.
http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz0uWdBkGBB
July 23, 2010 at 17:09
@piphut, and all members what is your opinion on this stress test? whether it is positve for EUR or not?
July 23, 2010 at 17:10
@johnny, what is ur view ???????
July 23, 2010 at 17:19
FAHAD I am sure if you go over all the Postings here you will find your answer.
All in all we are back from where we started if you ask me, but this time the Euro Veil is been lifted up a bit more so that could hold something in store! (In other words, dont hang your dirty laundry outside to dry :) )
July 23, 2010 at 17:10
we ll finisched the week here; next wext the month august on the door the beach and sun too:!!
July 23, 2010 at 17:14
Yes , and I’ll be locked up maybe in August :)
Anyway Sahara, its been nice to have you here. Take good care on yourself and maybe one day we’ll meet again.
Aurvoir Mon Ami
July 23, 2010 at 17:13
Any info on Polish banks (out of curiosity), don’t know where to find some info
July 23, 2010 at 17:16
Do they have Banks in Poland too Mike? I thought you were still change a goat for a bottle of vodka there :) No need for cash :)
Just joking my friend, No I have seen anything on the Polish Banks. Will check again and come back.
Take care
July 23, 2010 at 17:19
Haha you got that right, maybe that’s why there’s no info on that. Gotta check in the city whether there are any or just goat pens ;)
July 23, 2010 at 17:16
Found out that PKO BP had a good result, any other domestic (for me) banks tested?
July 23, 2010 at 17:21
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100723-710417.html
July 23, 2010 at 17:22
Seems PKO was the only one that needed the test, all others are safe. So now you know where to bring you pip-cash :)
July 23, 2010 at 17:25
Ok, thanks for the info, I’ve seen a similar thing on one of the popular portals here. Have a good weekend johnny, btw my mom loves sweets that come from Belland, which part do you live in?
July 23, 2010 at 17:22
wow my long entry executed at .2808
speak of getting lucky….
July 23, 2010 at 17:27
good for you! nice pips already huh?
July 23, 2010 at 17:25
listening to this: http://stress-test.c-ebs.org/results.htm (live conference at end of page)
and watching the price action it’s kind of lie detector *hihihi*